Lumax Auto Technologies Limited (LUMAXTECH) Q3 FY23 Earnings Concall Transcript

Lumax Auto Technologies Limited (NSE:LUMAXTECH) Q3 FY23 Earnings Concall dated Feb. 14, 2023.

Corporate Participants:

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Sanjay Mehta — Director and Group Chief Financial Officer

Vikas Marwah — Chief Executive Officer

Analysts:

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

Deepti Kothari — Kothari Securities — Analyst

Jyoti Singh — Arihant Capital Markets — Analyst

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Sameer Shraddha — Shraddha Securities — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q3 FY ’23 Earnings Conference Call of Lumax Auto Technologies Limited. This conference call may contain forward-looking statements about the company, which are based on the beliefs, opinions and expectations of the company as on date of this call. These statements are not the guarantees of future performance of the company, and it may involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict.

[Operator Instructions] Now I’ll hand over the conference to Mr. Anmol Jain, Managing Director of Lumax Auto Technologies Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Thank you. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. A very warm welcome to our Q3 and nine months FY ’23 Earnings Conference Call. Along with me on this call, I have Mr. Deepak Jain, Director; Mr. Sanjay Mehta, Director and Group CFO; Mr. Vikas Marwah, CEO; Mr. Naval Khanna, Executive Director, LMS; Mr. Ashish Dubey, CFO; Mr. Ankit Thakral from the Corporate Finance team; Ms. Priyanka Sharma, Head, Corporate Communications; and SGA, our Investor Relations Advisors.

The results and presentations have been uploaded on the stock exchange and the company’s website. I hope everybody has had a chance to go through the same. I’ll start by sharing some insights on the economy and industry. Then we’ll go over the operational and financial performance for the third quarter of FY ’23 before opening the floor for questions and answers.

India is projected to be the fastest-growing major economy in the world with growth rates projected to be upwards of 6% for the coming years by IMF, indicating a strong resilience despite global headwind. It continues to remain a bright spot in the global economy on the basis of support by export opportunities as a result of India’s emergence as a manufacturing hub and the government initiative to Make in India.

On the industry front, past two years have been tough, and the road to recovery was not smooth beginning with COVID-19, followed by supply chain issues, chip shortages and the Russia-Ukraine war. However, amidst rising inflation and interest rates, the growth momentum has been solid. The domestic auto industry has recovered well in the last few quarters, and the semiconductor shortages are also going to abate in 2023.

Despite all the challenges, the passenger vehicle segment achieved record sales of crossing 37.92 lakh units in calendar year 2022, which is about 4 lakhs higher than its previous peak in 2018. The PADA [Phonetic] numbers for January 2023 also show a 22% growth in sales of passenger vehicles compared on a year-over-year basis. However, there is a shift towards premium models in the market, which was previously known for small affordable cars.

After struggling for the better part of the year, the two-wheeler market has also begun to experience some signs of buoyancy. The January figures show a 10% growth year-on-year. As per the economic survey, 2022-’23 tabled in the parliament, the wages at rural levels are expected to rise and inflation will be softening going ahead. This should help the rise in sales of two-wheelers.

Three-wheeler sales are up by a good 60% year-on-year, and commercial vehicle sales are up by 16% year-on-year for the month of January. The adoption of electric vehicles, which had already begun to take route by 2022, particularly in the segment of two-wheelers will accelerate in 2023 and continue to do so in the years that follow. We are continuously modernizing our products to accommodate the changing dynamics of the industry, and we continue our significant investments in research and development in order to develop products with a focus on the future.

In the union budget, Honorable Finance Minister had announced an extension on customs duty exemption for the import of goods in machinery required to produce lithium ion cells for electric vehicle batteries. This will increase local production and manufacturing of lithium ion batteries, thereby preserving the affordability of electric vehicles.

Since automakers are importing a large number of electric vehicles to the country, this action was widely important. This would help them launch more electric vehicles with high local content. The changes proposed by the finance ministry will have a considerable impact on the prices of automobiles, two-wheelers and fuel throughout the country. With the introduction of new models, more electric vehicles and other cutting-edge technologies, coupled with more income in the hands of people as a result of lower direct taxes, the automotive industry should continue to expand at a steady state.

Let me now move on to the operational highlights for this quarter. During the quarter, we have made the following new launches, the gear shifter system and the antenna feeder cable assembly for Toyota Hycross and the gear shifter for Maruti EECO in the passenger vehicle segment, along with Force Motors, Urbania, in the commercial vehicle segment.

In the two-wheeler segment, we have been able to add plastic products for Pulsar P150 model. With continuous new launches by the OEM, we have also been able to grab new business and build a robust order book. Our content per vehicle and per OEM has been increasing due to our presence across multiple product categories and long-standing relationships with all the major OEMs in India.

Speaking of entity wise, the stand-alone entity caters to Integrated Plastic Modules, aftermarket business, chassis and swing arm for two-wheelers, trailing arm for three-wheelers under the metallic business and two-wheeler lighting. The stand-alone entity has contributed 71% of the total consolidated revenues for nine months FY ’23.

Lumax Mannoh Allied Technologies, the 55% subsidiary, which manufactures manual, AMT and automatic gear shifter systems and has the market leadership position, contributed 16% to total consolidated revenue. Exports business of automatic gear shifters for a global platform is on track and is performing well. We are also working in tandem with a JV partner to increase our reach to newer markets.

Lumax Cornaglia Auto Technologies, the 50% subsidiary, manufacturing air intake system and urea tank commanding 100% share of business with Volkswagen and Tata Motors, contributed 7% to the consolidated revenue. This joint venture holds a strong order book, and we are very bullish for its future growth.

Lumax Metallics Private Limited, the 100% subsidiary, manufacturing seat frames, contributed 4% to the total consolidated revenues. The company’s application of merger with Lumax Auto Technologies Limited has been approved by the Honorable NCLT, the order of the same is abated.

Lumax Alps Alpine India Private Limited, a 50% subsidiary for the manufacturing and sale of electric devices and components, including software related to the automotive industry, has contributed 2% to the consolidated revenues. We have aggressive targets for this joint venture.

Now I would like to hand it over to Mr. Sanjay Mehta, Director and Group CFO, to update you on the operational and financial performance of the company.

Sanjay Mehta — Director and Group Chief Financial Officer

Good afternoon, everyone. I will brief on the operational and the financial performance. For nine months FY ’23 Integrated Plastic Modules contributed 24% of overall revenue, followed by aftermarket at 20%, gear shifter at 16%, fabrication at 14%, lighting products at 8%, emission at 7% and others at 11%. Two and three-wheelers contributed 38% to overall revenue, passenger car at 25%, aftermarket at 20%, CVs at 9% and others at 8%. For more detailed operational highlights, one can refer our investor presentation uploaded on exchanges and company’s website.

With respect to financial highlights, the consolidated revenue stood at INR445 crores for Q3 FY ’23 as against INR424 crores last year, up by 4%. For nine months FY ’23, consolidated revenue were up by 24% at INR1,354 crores. EBITDA margins stand at 12.2% for quarter three FY ’23 as against 11.2% for quarter ’22, up by 100 bps, whereas for nine months EBITDA margin is at 12%, up by 150 bps point from nine year last year — nine months last year.

PAT after minority interest for the quarter stood at INR23 crores as compared to INR21 crores in Q3 FY ’22, a growth of 8%. PAT for nine months stood at INR74 crores, up by 53% from nine months FY ’22. PAT margin is at 5.2% and 5.5% for Q3 and nine months, respectively. The capex incurred during nine months is INR40 crores.

With this, we open the floor for questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Abhishek from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

Good afternoon, sir. And congrats for decent set of number in a challenging quarter. Sir, there is an increase in revenue from the lighting business quarter-on-quarter basis despite fall in the Bajaj Auto volumes. So have you won any new business?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So on — when you say quarter-on-quarter, you’re talking of consecutive quarters or you’re talking about on a year-on-year basis?

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

Just quarter-on-quarter basis, consecutive quarters.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Yeah. So it’s pretty much flat quarter-on-quarter, it’s only 6%. So there have been certain new models. But again, since Bajaj’s overall volumes are down, we’ve taken an impact of that as well. So lighting again, it’s pretty defined. It’s only for Bajaj Auto, and we continue to maintain our volume share within Bajaj Auto.

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

Okay. And aftermarket, that is continuing on a strong footing. Quarterly run rate is now INR98 crores. So will this run rate is sustainable in FY ’24?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Absolutely. I think I have always maintained and since the last 12 to 15 months that aftermarket, our endeavor is to double the revenue in a period of about three to four years. And hence, we will see the strong growth rate. And we are pretty confident that this growth would continue in the coming year as well.

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

And in aftermarket business, how much is network expansion in last one year?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So we have done about close to 15% new channel partners expansion across the length and breadth of the country. So — and we will continue to do so as and when we feel necessary to expand our reach for the end consumers.

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

Sir, in plastic molded part, there’s a sharp degrowth in the revenue. Is it because of the de-growth in the Honda two-wheelers only?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So the plastics module degrowth is on account of Bajaj Auto, as well as HMSI. As you know, the two-wheelers specifically in quarter three, was slightly struggling, and that’s the result of the downfall in production for both HMSI and Bajaj Auto. These are the two primary customers, which cater under the plastic module business.

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

And the plastic module, sir, how is the correct mix in two-wheelers versus four-wheelers? And how do we shift in the coming quarters because of new business in from the four-wheelers’ OEM?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So right now, the mix would be almost close to 90% of the revenue would come from two-wheelers, largely driven by Bajaj and then HMSI, and about 10% of the revenue bioplastic would be coming in four-wheelers. These are certain products of kinematics, which the company had secured orders for recently from as a Tier 2 for Kia and Hyundai as well as directly for Maruti Suzuki. But I think strategically, as I’ve always mentioned, the endeavor is to grow the passenger car side of the plastics business in the forthcoming years.

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

And what is the quantum of these new orders in the four-wheelers side?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So the total — were you talking about the new orders with respect to company as a whole or only with respect to plastics?

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

Respect to plastics.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So we have right now close to about INR50 crores — INR40 crore to INR50 crore of new order book of plastics per se, which is there.

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

And in the seat metal business sir you have seen impressive growth in the last two years, but the now metal prices are pulling up. So how do you see a positive or negative impact on your business in terms of the revenue and EBITDA?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So, on the seat frame business?

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

Seat frame and chassis, both.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Yeah, so I think majorly there the business is driven by the chassis business for Bajaj Auto. I think we saw a handsome growth. Right now, if I look at nine months, there is a slight degrowth largely because of Bajaj Auto volumes. But I think strategically, we are very well positioned. The export trade is what has caused this slight degrowth because we know the export volumes of Bajaj Auto have taken a meeting based on the demand in the overseas market. But I think we are very strategically well positioned. We are now in the KTM space as well as in other premium space for the frame business. So going forward, we anticipate this business to continue to grow and also add to the margins.

And I also mentioned earlier that we’ve also secured certain EV platform businesses for future models for the frame business.

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

Okay. And Air Intake Systems, sir, you are showing impressive growth. Is it because of the incremental revenue [Phonetic] from the urea tank? Or urea tank revenue will start to reflect on FY ’24 only?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So I think majorly because of Tata volumes going up, if you see Tata Motors, they have had a significant run almost a 42% growth in their own volumes on a nine-month basis. So it’s just a result of that because we are very strong on our presence in Tata Motors with respect to the emission products.

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

So is it because of the exhaust system revenue or the urea tank revenues?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

We don’t do exhaust systems. We do air intake systems and we do the urea tank, both of them have increased based on the volumes of Tata Motors.

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

And how is the outlook for FY ’24 from this business?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Well, we are still bullish on all the joint ventures with respect to Lumax Cornaglia per se. We are sitting also on an order book of about INR20 crores to INR25 crores.

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

Okay, sir. And my last question is regarding your capex plan for FY ’23 and ’24.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So as you see, in the nine months, we’ve done a capex of about INR40 crores. For the full year, we expect this capex to be roughly around INR60 crores give or take. This is slightly downward from the earlier guidance of around INR75 crores to INR80 crores, which I provided largely because of certain models or certain launches, the sector having deferred to next year. I do not have a next year capex plan yet, but I don’t see any significant incremental expansion on any of the specific businesses. So it would probably be in a similar ballpark as this year.

Abhishek Jain — Dolat Capital — Analyst

Thanks. That’s helpful.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Deepti Kothari from Kothari Securities. Please go ahead.

Deepti Kothari — Kothari Securities — Analyst

Good afternoon, sir. Sir, my first question was that, what is our current order book?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So our current order book is roughly around INR500 crores, which is different business lines. And again, out of the INR500 crores, majority, almost more than 90% would be new business and the remaining 7% to 10% would be the replacement business.

Deepti Kothari — Kothari Securities — Analyst

Okay, sir. And what is the current capacity utilization level?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Are you talking about any particular business because it usually differs from one business to the other?

Deepti Kothari — Kothari Securities — Analyst

No, I was talking about on a blended basis.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So let’s say, give or take around 65%, 70% would be on an average. It would differ across businesses. But if I were to give you an overall, it would be close to 70%.

Deepti Kothari — Kothari Securities — Analyst

Okay, sir. And sir, what is your outlook for the EV business? And are we seeing any increase in demand for this category?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Well, EV, as I said in my opening remarks, will continue to grow specifically in the two-wheeler industry. There have been — the growth has been significant from a percentage basis, and I’m sure the penetration will go deeper. As I mentioned, we already have certain secured businesses for EV models of one of our OEMs for the metallic frame businesses.

Deepti Kothari — Kothari Securities — Analyst

Okay, sir. Thank you so much. That answers my questions.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Jyoti Singh from Arihant Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Jyoti Singh — Arihant Capital Markets — Analyst

Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. So most of my question is already answered. But overall, I want to know like what the growth rate that we are targeting? And what’s your overview on the margin trend going forward FY ’24 and Q4?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

As you see, I mean, the growth rate of nine months is already at about 24% compared to last year. And I would assume that a similar growth rate, if all goes well in quarter four. And as of now, we don’t see any signs of why not. Similar growth rate would be reported for the full year. I’m still very bullish about next year prospects. So we do expect a double-digit growth for next year as well.

When it comes to our margins, I think currently, the company is strong at a margin of over 12% at an EBITDA level. But I think we will continue to sustain that. And going forward, we — our endeavor has always been to come towards the teen margins close to 13% and then further enhance going forward. So I think we are on track with the expansion of EBITDA margins as well.

Jyoti Singh — Arihant Capital Markets — Analyst

Okay.

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Apurva Mehta from A M Investments. Please go ahead.

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

Yeah, sir, congrats on decent numbers. Any specific reason why the quarter was muted compared to Q2? Any specific reason where we can throw some highlight on it?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Sure. I think one of the major reasons is Bajaj Auto. I think Bajaj Auto specifically in the quarter had almost 18%, 20% decline in their volumes. Also, HMSI showed a close to 28% decline in their volumes. Also, if you look at Maruti Suzuki, also showed about a 17% decline in their volumes. So specific to the quarter, I think a majority of the OEMs, and as you know, that these Maruti, HMSI as well as Bajaj Auto would contribute close to almost 40% of the business. So because their production volumes were down, Q3 particularly did not have a very strong buoyant growth. Part of it was offset with the aftermarket, which continue to at least grow on a sequential quarter-on-quarter basis. And on a year-on-year basis, in quarter three, it grew almost double digits. So part of that was neutralized. But answering to your question, Apurva ji, I think majority of it was related to volumes down of OEMs.

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

And can we throw highlight on the JVs like where we are currently, what are the prospects of seat changing next year? See, for example, Cornaglia, Mannoh, which I think are doing pretty well. So what is your target for next year for Cornaglia, Mannoh and a few JVs which are not doing okay, means like Ituran, JOPP, Yokowo and Alps, all these JVs can you throw some highlights of all of these JVs where we see next year on the revenue front from all these JVs?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Sure. So I’ll let Vikas expand more on that, but I will just give you an opening that on our order book of INR500 crores, which we are sitting on, which is distributed across different, different joint ventures, expect almost 50% of that revenue or that order book to come into the revenue in FY ’24 itself. So that is the kind of growth we are looking at from these new orders, but I will let Vikas also expand on the JVs.

Vikas Marwah — Chief Executive Officer

So good afternoon, Apurva ji, and in terms of the joint venture, of course, the two mature joint ventures, which have been there for quite some time, which is Lumax Mannoh and Lumax Cornaglia will continue their upward journey in terms of the order books and the new programs that get into production even in the coming year FY ’24. We are expecting both the joint ventures to be clocking between 15% to 20% growth rate going ahead in FY ’24.

Some very exciting news for us is that the new JVs, absolutely new cases like Lumax Yokowo, Lumax Ituran, both of them get into prestigious SOPs starting from the month of April and May 2024, which is where they start supplying to Honda Cars in terms of Lumax Yokowo and to Daimler in terms of Lumax Ituran.

These are very prestigious launches and they have a capacity of high traction and higher revenue. So FY ’24 is going to be their almost one full year of revenue. So we are anticipating definitely a very good percentage in terms of growth as far as we need to give you a concern and some decent volume on both the joint ventures.

Again, Lumax FAE continues to be a little bit muted because of the regulation for the second auction sensor having shifted to 2025, but we are in advanced stages of discussion with one leading OEM and hoping to secure that business even on a single heat expense business also for their motorcycles. By June 2024, we should get into the SOP for that. So the revenues are expected to definitely double our Lumax FAE also.

Then we come to Lumax Jopp. Lumax Jopp has secured some prestigious orders from Tata Motors, and we get into the SOP for that along with some new programs for Mahindra, looking for almost 30% adjusted revenues for Lumax Jopp next year, which then brings to the last one, Lumax Alps. The Lumax Alps business wins have been significant, but they are linked to the customer program and the customer programs are right now scheduled for FY ’25 launch. So pretty much the same kind of revenues what we see in FY ’23 for Lumax Alps will continue as much in FY ’24 because we are now sitting on a very secure, very healthy order book that kicks in, in FY ’25.

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

So can you throw some light on numbers of Alps, what kind of order book we are setting in Alps, what kind of revenue we can see for ’24 also?

Vikas Marwah — Chief Executive Officer

So for Alps, already it is currently at a revenue size of INR25 crores, INR30 crores per year basis, but we have already secured close to INR90 crores order book. And as we speak, we are in the RFQ for another about INR70 crores right now. And the traction is extremely good. It is getting into a regulatory products also. And Alps has got certain products. There is more or less only one or maximum two competitors in the areas of the products that it is in. So we have a high level of customer confidence there.

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

So this order will start reflecting on FY ’25 kind of thing?

Vikas Marwah — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So out of the INR90 crores order book that we have got for FY ’25 onwards, so in terms of a full year, there is almost INR60 crores that will kick in. Prior to that, the customer is already evaluating the other opportunities also where we can be a running change or the second change to the existing suppliers. And if that comes in, then definitely the revenue is totally higher.

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

And on the Ituran side, what kind of revenue we can expect on next year?

Vikas Marwah — Chief Executive Officer

So good news, as we made the investors aware that there is one particular product, the telematics control unit that we intend to kick in with FY ’24. After that, there is another product that we have developed, and that is also now going to come into revenue. So we are expecting about INR45 crores additional revenue coming in for Lumax Ituran, which is going to just get off the block because currently, we decided not to cater to the aftermarket channels there being a very high technology product. So that’s how the OEM business will run.

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

So broadly speaking, the next year, what we look is around more than 20% kind of growth we can expect because all these JVs will start kicking in and the revenue stream will start coming in. So can we expect that broadly we will go past 22%, 22% to 25% growth.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So Apurva ji, this is Anmol again. So I think we do not anticipate any reason why not. Definitely, a double-digit growth will continue, and it is backed on three specific things. Number one, there is almost INR250 crores of the order book, which will get into the revenue stream next year. Number two, based on whatever conversations we’ve had with our top three customers, they are pretty optimistic about the next year recovery, even from Bajaj Auto’s export standpoint. And of course, number three is the — as you saw, the aftermarket growth will continue even in the next year FY ’24. So considering all of those, yes, I would not say that this kind of numbers would be challenging to achieve in FY ’24. But we will have more clarity perhaps by the next investor call.

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

Okay. And on the margin front that our endeavor to have 100 bps point of margin expense that is on track, seeing next year we see at the high — at the teens levels from next year onwards?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Absolutely. I think that is the endeavor. I mean, right now, we are already sitting at 12.2% in Q3 of FY ’23. And I think it’s sustainable. So definitely, we are looking at another maybe 100 bps expansion going forward. Whether it happens in FY ’24, specifically or part of it comes in FY ’25, I can’t say. But clearly, our goal is to achieve a 13% EBITDA or thereabout.

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

Okay. And any other JVs in pipeline related to EV or something which is really exciting, which you are looking forward? Are any new products which you are trying to get into it and we are close to it and any excitement which you can share with us?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Yes. The company is always engaged in opportunities for growth with respect to new technologies, new products, the new partnerships as and when they fructify, we will surely make announcements.

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

And any acquisition where we were looking around [Indecipherable] them, anything on card?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

The company is always looking at inorganic growth opportunities as well. And as and when they fructify, shortly, we will make announcements to the market.

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

Okay. Thank you and wish you all the best.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Thank you, Apurva ji.

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Aditya Shah from CJ [Phonetic] Securities. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Thank you for the opportunity. You have been mentioning about increasing focus on the TV front. So if you could give any guidance on what kind of our revenue mix are we looking ahead two years down the line?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So clearly, I think, number one, most of the recent joint ventures, whether it is the Lumax Alps joint venture or the Lumax Jopp or Lumax Yokowo, they continue to be dominating in the passenger vehicle space. And of course, the two mature joint ventures, Lumax Mannoh and Lumax Cornaglia are also predominantly in the passenger car space. So with the order book, we do expect a significant contribution from the joint ventures in the coming quarters, and that’s how we are planning to expand our presence in the four-wheeler space.

I think I have always mentioned, if you see for nine months now, we are at almost 25% of our consolidated revenues coming from passenger car space, which in 12 months ’21/’22, was at 20%. So there has been an incremental increase. But our long-term strategy is to get one-third of the revenues from passenger cars, one-third from two and three wheelers and the remaining between aftermarket and commercial vehicles.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Okay, sir. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sameer Shraddha from Shraddha [Phonetic] Securities. Please go ahead.

Sameer Shraddha — Shraddha Securities — Analyst

Hi, sir. Thank you for this opportunity. I have two questions. What is the outlook for the two-wheeler segment. And the two-wheeler segment has been lagging in terms of growth due to various factors. So given that majority of our revenues come from this segment, which has clearly affected us. So how are we planning on mitigating this risk?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So there are two things which we are trying to do as a company. You’re right. I mean if I look at the two-wheeler as a segment, on a nine-month current year basis, we are up as an industry, 13% on a year-on-year basis. However, Q3 was down. And again, if I look at a much more long-term perspective, we are still almost 20% down from the peak volumes of FY ’18/’19.

However, if I were to dissect that further, I would say that within the two-wheelers, the four key customers in the industry, there is Bajaj, HMSI, Hero and TVS, Bajaj and HMSI are our current customers. And I think both of them are positioned quite strongly to overcome the two-wheeler headwinds in the market. Bajaj is largely export dependent. I do feel that in FY ’24, there will be certain corrections in the export demand, and we are very strong on the export models as well. So that’s how I see a slight uptick on the two-wheeler for Bajaj.

Also in the domestic industry, please note that Bajaj is mostly dominant in the premium segment. And the company has a presence across the premium models as well, whether it is for the metallic business or the plastic business. So Bajaj should be reasonably doing okay in FY ’24.

In terms of the overall strategy, as I mentioned, most of the future growth across joint ventures and the order book is largely catered towards the passenger car segment. So the objective is to continue to de-risk our dependability on two-wheelers, which is definitely more vulnerable compared to passenger car space. And I think passenger car will continue to lead the growth for the industry over the next two years.

So on a strategic level, we continue to grow the passenger car products and businesses much faster. And of course, from two-wheelers, we want to continue to protect any further slide, which through Bajaj is the incremental volumes in FY ’24, we should be able to address it.

Sameer Shraddha — Shraddha Securities — Analyst

All right. Thank you so much and wish you all the best.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Riya Verma from [Indecipherable] Securities. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Sir two questions.

Operator

Sorry to interrupt you, Ms. Verma, but your voice is not audible, ma’am. Can you please speak a bit louder?

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Is it audible now?

Operator

Yes. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Yeah. So my first question is on the integrated plastics module. We saw good growth in Q2 over Q1 FY ’20, but the number has come down again. Could you please throw some light on that?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

You’re talking about Q1 of FY ’23?

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Yeah.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Well, if I look at Q1, I’m not sure what the number in Q1 goes. But if I look at Q2 to Q3, there definitely is a downfall of 20%. And as I had mentioned before, the plastic module business is largely dependent on the two-wheeler segment, which is driven by Bajaj and HMSI. And if you look at both these customers’ volumes, it has shown a downfall with respect to the quarter three per se.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Okay. And what is the contribution of the two-wheeler and four-wheelers out of the total plastic integrated modules?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

90% is coming from two-wheelers and almost just about 10% is coming from the four-wheeler in the plastic module space.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Okay. Thank you. That is helpful.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Apurva Mehta from A M Investments. Please go ahead.

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

Sir, just a clarification that we told that we would end with 24% growth last year. So we should — in Q4, we should clock around more than INR500 crores, is it right assumption?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So I said that 24% is the growth which we’ve already envisaged in nine months. And I think I would still say that, I mean, I’m not sure 24%, but yes, we should be between 20% to 24% for the full year. So quarter four, yes, I mean, whatever numbers you mentioned, that seems to be what we should be doing in quarter four as well. I mean anywhere between INR450 crores to INR475 crores of revenues is what I would expect to clock in quarter four.

Apurva Mehta — A M Investments — Analyst

Okay, okay, okay. Thanks.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Devendra Pandey from DB [Phonetic] Financial Advisory Services. Please go ahead. Mr. Pandey, please go ahead with your question. Your line is unmuted.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Hello?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

You’re audible. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Yeah, thank you, sir. Good afternoon. Sir, my question is on guidance. Can you please provide the capex guidance for the upcoming quarters? And what percentage of it would be the maintenance capex versus the actual capex?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So the nine-month actual capex is at INR40 crores. I mentioned earlier, the full year guidance earlier was around INR75 crores to INR80 crores. We would be pruning it down maybe to about INR50 crores. So there is almost about give or take, INR20 crores in Q4. Most of this INR60 crores would be towards new products and expansions in line to deliver the new order book and only very small part of it would be towards maintenance capex.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Got it. Got it. That’s all from my side. Thank you.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from the line of Naitik Mohata from SeQuent [Phonetic] Investments. Please go ahead.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Yeah, good afternoon and thank you for the opportunity. Just one question from my side. Could you give a guidance on what the JVs have dropped in nine months as revenue and where do we see them ending in FY ’23?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So the revenues of JVs in nine months is at about 25% to the total consolidated revenues. Going forward, I think earlier, I had given a guidance that about one-third of the total consolidated revenues would be from the JVs and subsidiaries and about two-third would be from the stand-alone entity. And I think that is exactly the direction in which we are headed. As I mentioned before, that out of the INR500 crores order book, significant part of it is towards the joint ventures and subsidiaries.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Yeah. I followed that, but I was just hoping if you could give some numbers regarding Mannoh and Cornaglia in particular for nine months?

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

So for nine months, Mannoh did a 16% share and Cornaglia did a 7% share and followed by, as I mentioned, Lumax Alpine, which is at about 2% of the consolidated revenues. So this total put together is at about 25% of the consolidated revenues.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Okay, okay. That’s helpful. Thank you.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.

Anmol Jain — Managing Director

Well, I take this opportunity to thank everyone for joining the call. We will keep updating the investor community on a regular basis for any incremental updates on your company. I hope we have been able to address all your queries. For any further information, please get in touch with us or Strategic Growth Advisors, our Investor Relations advisors. Thank you once again.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]