Mahindra CIE Automotive Ltd Q4 CY21 Earnings Conference Call Insights

Key highlights from Mahindra CIE Automotive Ltd (MAHINDCIE) Q4 CY21 Earnings Concall

Management Update:

• In MCIE India, the quarter was affected by the sharp slowdown in the tractor and two-wheeler segment, largely attributable to loss of rural income as the Delta wave hit the interiors hard, added with slowdown in government spending on rural projects.

• The company expects tractors and two-wheeler sales to be sluggish in the next two quarters.

• In MCIE Europe, the quarter was very badly affected by drop in demand due to chip shortage as well as very steep increases in input costs.

Q&A Highlights:

• Jinesh Gandhi from Motilal Oswal asked about the order book for fuel agnostic products and EVs in India. Vikas Sinha SVP said that between 25-30% of the new orders generated in CY21 were for EVs and hybrids in India.

• Jinesh Gandhi from Motilal Oswal also asked about the size of the order book in terms of annual run rate of revenues. Vikas Sinha SVP replied that in India, the order book would be roughly in the range of about INR6 billion in the EV and hybrid space. How it pans out on a YtoY basis, has to be seen based on how the SOP happens.

• Jinesh Gandhi from Motilal Oswal enquired about what kind of aluminum forging parts the company is looking at in Europe. Ander Arenaza ED answered that the kind of products the company is looking at are more related to the suspension and to the chassis component. In the future, the company is looking for suspension parts, knuckles, suspension arms and these kind of products for the chassis and suspension area of the car.

• Jinesh Gandhi from Motilal Oswal enquired about the impact of high energy prices in the forging business in 4Q CY22. Ander Arenaza ED replied that the company suffered due to LNG price increase. And in 1Q22, this impact was still there, but the company is working with automotive suppliers and producers and customers to pass through this energy cost increases.

• Jinesh Gandhi from Motilal Oswal also asked about the European order book with respect to the annualized run rate of revenues. Ander Arenaza ED said that the company has an internal target of having approx. 20% of annual sales on new order book. This year MAHINDCIE has already hit that figure. In 2021, the company was very successful in EVs and approx. 75% of new orders were EVs or hybrid.

• Sunil Kothari from Unique Management Service asked that in CY21, how much business the company must have lost because of the faster transition to EV. Vikas Sinha SVP said the company has not quantified how much was lost due to transition but focus was more on how much was lost due to chip shortage rather than on EV.

• Sunil Kothari from Unique Management asked if there is any restructuring plans in MCIE India as Europe is proving tougher in terms of passing on costs. Vikas Sinha SVP replied that this is the first year when MCIE India has exceeded MCIE Europe in sales, and this trend is going to continue. In Germany, the company did some restructuring actions in 2020 and reaping benefits in 2021. MAHINDCIE has also been restructuring the product portfolio there and shedding of the loss-making parts.

• Nikhil Kale asked about the volume outlook for the key segments in India. Vikas Sinha SVP answered that the company is looking at the tractor market being steady in India. Low single digit growth for two-wheelers. For trucks and cars, it’s looking at higher growth rates and passenger vehicles, depending on how the chip shortage goes, closer to double digit.

• Nikhil Kale also enquired about the volume outlook for the key segments in Europe. Vikas Sinha SVP replied that in Europe, for cars there would be good recovery, given the low base rate and trucks are doing well. So except for two-wheelers and tractors in the near term, tractors are expected to come back hopefully with a good monsoon.

• Vipul Agrawal of Motilal Oswal asked about capex that was high in CY21 at around 6.5% of total sales, if it’s expected to fall back to 5% level in CY22. Ander Arenaza ED answered that it will depend on the market and the new order evolution. Probably, the company will reduce this capex in CY22 because CY21 was led by big investments.

• Vipul Agrawal of Motilal Oswal also asked about the sustainable margins over next two years for India and EU business. Vikas Sinha SVP said that in India, the company was operating at around 15% for the last two quarters and that is something MAHINDCIE would definitely like to reclaim. In Europe, the maximum done in the recent past is 13.5-14%, which is an internal benchmark. In the more medium to long term, CIE expects an 18% EBITDA margin from its constituents.