Hindalco Industries Ltd Q3 FY22 Earnings Conference Call Insights

Key highlights from Hindalco Industries Ltd (HINDALCO) Q3 FY22 Earnings Concall

Management Update:

• HINDALCO commented it reached its FY22 target of 100 megawatts of renewable capacity in 3Q. Also identified nearly 69 megawatts of renewable projects and targeting to reach 200 megawatts by the end of FY ’25.

• HINDALCO’s business EBITDA for Indian aluminum was at a record high of INR3,376 crores for 3Q22, up 131% year-on-year. EBITDA margin was at 41%.

Q&A Highlights:

• Anuj Singla from Bank of America asked if it can be expected to have a new smelter on the upstream aluminum side in India and if not that, what other segments HINDALCO will be looking at. Satish Pai MD said that the company is looking at further expansion of alumina. As far as the smelter expansion, HINDALCO is actively considering brownfield expansions, but looking at energy sources that can help reduce the carbon footprint.

• Anuj Singla of Bank of America asked about coal sourcing and availability in India and the anticipated cost escalation in aluminum in 4Q22. Satish Pai MD said that the total cost of production escalation 3Q to 2Q was 7.5%, in which coal did not play a major role. It was largely caustic, carbon that played a higher role. So the guidance for cost increase Q4 to Q3 is going to be another 9.5%.

• Sumangal Nevatia with Kotak Securities asked about the company’s hedge position and outlook on aluminum. Satish Pai MD replied that compared to last quarter, the only thing HINDALCO has done is added for next year another 60 kt at an average of $3,000 a tonne. So the total hedge position of FY23 now is 28% at $2,360. The last 60 Kt which was added at an avg. of $3,000 a tonne.

• Sumangal Nevatia of Kotak Securities enquired about the value-added mix on the Indian aluminum business and over the next 2-3 years, when can a meaningful increase be seen in volume run rate. Satish Pai MD said Silvassa will add 30, 35 Kt of extrusion, Kuppam has added 15 Kt, Sambalpur will add 170 Kt of rolled products. The aluminum fin to be announced will be another 20 Kt. Therefore, HINDALCO is steadily heading towards that 600 Kt. Silvassa, first press should be commissioned by December of FY23.

• Sumangal Nevatia of Kotak Securities also asked about the margin or profitability delta from the value addition. Satish Pai MD replied that it should be more towards $200. And HINDALCO believes it will probably be starting to break out the downstream EBITDA probably from Q1 of next year.

• Indrajit Agarwal from CLSA enquired that on the growth outlook, between aluminum and alumina, how the tightness of the market can be seen. Satish Pai MD answered that HINDALCO thinks that with its bauxite capacity and if it gets the next mine in Orissa, the company can get fairly quickly, with not a lot of capex, another 1 million tonnes capacity setup. Therefore, HINDALCO would want to do that alumina and then let the aluminum maybe catch up.

• Indrajit Agarwal from CLSA also asked about the alumina sales in 3Q22 and the working capital block and capex for nine-months consolidated. Satish Pai MD said the alumina sales for 3Q was 100 Kt. And in 4Q, HINDALCO is planning to sell 150 Kt.

• Indrajit Agarwal of CLSA asked about the consolidated working capital block and capex for the first nine months. Praveen Maheshwari, CFO replied that in India for the first nine-months about INR2,400 crores or so was in terms of working capital block, which does vary quarter by quarter. On capex, FY22 has been a little slow in terms of cash outflow. HINDALCO spent about INR1,000 crores in India but intend to catch up in 4Q. The total guidance for the year will be not more than INR2,000 crores.

• Amit Dixit of Edelweiss asked about the coal sourcing mix in 3Q22 and how it’s going to change in 4Q22.  Satish Pai MD said 60% was linkage, 26% was e-auction, 9% was own mines and import was about 4%. The company believes the linkage percentage will go up at least in the second half of 4Q and 1Q23.

• Amit Dixit of Edelweiss also enquired if HINDALCO is only open to setting up a smelter or brownfield expansion in India and not looking at greenfield. Satish Pai MD said it’s not interested in looking at greenfield smelter anywhere outside of India, as Middle East might have gas but carbon footprint in gas is not zero.