Asian Paints Ltd (ASIANPAINT) Q4 FY22 Earnings Concall Transcript

Asian Paints Ltd. (NSE: ASIANPAINT) Q4 FY22 Earnings Concall dated May 09, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Parag Rane — General Manager, Finance

Analysts:

Avi Mehta — Macquarie Group Limited — Analyst

Abneesh Roy — Edelweiss Financial Services Limited — Analyst

Shirish Pardeshi — Centrum Broking Limited — Analyst

Saumil Mehta — Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company Limited — Analyst

Richard Liu — JM Financial Limited — Analyst

Varun Singh — IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Limited — Analyst

Amit Sachdeva — HSBC Holdings plc — Analyst

Percy Panthaki — IIFL Securities Limited — Analyst

Sujay Kamath — Millennium Management, LLC — Analyst 

Presentation:

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

Good evening, and a very warm welcome to one and all for Asian Paints Investor Conference for Q4 FY 2022 Results. Myself Arun Nair from Corporate Communications. Today on the panel we have Mr. Amit Syngle, MD and CEO; Mr. R J Jeyamurugan, Chief Financial Officer and Company Secretary, and Mr. Parag Rane, GM Finance.

May I now request Mr. Amit Syngle to take you all through the presentation. Mr. Amit Syngle, over to you.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

A very good evening to all of you and thanks for coming for the investor conference for the Q4 financial 2022 results. I will take you briefly through the presentation in terms of how have been the numbers so that we can get a quick idea in terms of what it is.

Just to recap Asian Paints has been delivering joy since 1942 and as you all know we exist to beautify, preserve, transform all spaces and objects and bring happiness and joy to the world. So you can see practically all spaces is something which you touch across with all the objects which are there.

This is the disclaimer. So, overall when you look at the numbers, finally, a very strong quarter is what I would say in terms of what we have been able to deliver. The basis were very, very strong with a 48% volume growth last year on the same quarter and a 44% value on which basically the volume growth has been a strong 8% in terms of what we have been able to deliver, and a value growth of about 21% if you look at the overall Decorative business. The CAGRs over the two and three years for both volume and value, as you can see are very, very strong and very, very, very positive from that point of view in terms of staying the — stating the intent of the company in terms of the which where we are headed over the various quarters and that has been the very, very strong focus in terms of what we have taken.

In terms of the volume growth, the larger growth obviously came in the month of February and March because January was affected because of the COVID third wave to that extent, and we think that to grow 8% on a 48% kind of a growth base, I think it is really good in terms of what has been delivered. Overall, if you look at the picture across the quarters, if you see all quarters have been very, very strong to that extent, resulting in terms of the year being also at a very strong 31% volume growth and the value growth of 36%. So, it’s a very clearly, a very robust performance in terms of what you see.

Specifically, when we look at the full year, today, as I said, volume is at 31% growth on a base of a 13% growth last year, and our value is at a very strong 36% growth. So despite the fact that there would be a contribution because of the price increases, I think it’s overall a very strong value growth for the year in terms of what has got delivered, and again here you will see that the CAGRs over two years and three years, both on the volume and the value are very strong and very strongly positive. So, I think that’s clearly indicating that overall the trajectory has been very, very strong over the years in terms of what we have looked at, in terms of our growth on the overall top line.

Some qualitative things which are coming, which you would be definitely interested. If you look at the growth, T1, T2 centers and the metros have done good double-digit growth, especially in the luxury and the premium range, which is there, and T3, T4, if you look at, there have been good growth here as well. And there is double-digit growth in the economy range here to that extent. So there is a mixed bag in terms of this thing. But overall, what we see is that, T1, T2 has done much better than T3 T4 cities, as our a performance in Q4.

As we see today that the growth was dented in Jan ’22 because of the COVID, February and March were very strong growth in terms of double digits, which we kind of got, which has given us the resultant 8% growth for the quarter. If you look at, growths have been across geographies and the highest obviously has been in West and in the Eastern geographies, but other regions also have been pretty good overall in terms of what we have delivered in Q4.

Overall, one of the focus of the companies has been that we look at technological innovation in a very strong way and new products is a way to that innovation, where we are looking at patents and we are looking at mentioned disclosures to that extent. And today, we see that the overall new products are contributing to almost like 14% of the revenues topline. So I think that is a very strong trajectory as far as the story of innovation goes.

Waterproofing and Wood Finishes, two categories, which have seen exponential growth rates and here the competition is not only the paint companies, but what we see is the competition being plethora of multinational companies and other players which are there. The other business which has taken a big surge in terms of what we see as far as Q4 is concerned is the Project Institutional business and this has been across the cities from the builder segment as well. Strong growth coming more from the Government Factory segment overall and waterproofing and admixtures have done fairly well overall as part of the imperative to kind of get into newer construction.

So this is possibly the highlights in terms of what we look. Some idea in terms of the innovation. We’ve got into world-class textures now which are being offered. And today, we believe that no one is able to offer this range of textures at this cost in terms of what we are giving and these are tuned to the Indian climate conditions. So this is an innovation, which I would say that it is new to the world. so to so innovation, which we have kind of brought.

The other thing is that, for the first time in the category, we have looked at a fire retardant which was not there, it was only in industrial coatings, but a fire retardant paint for normal homes with a very strong LOTUS effect technology, which means that today it prevents any water kind of going inside the walls to that extent. So I think it comes with also anti-stain absorption. So I think all in all a very, very superior technology product which is coming, which we introduced this year. Then we have Royale Glitz, which is the top-end product, which is there and I think the key thing here comes in is that is, it’s in the Uber luxury space with anti-crack, durable coatings and Teflon kind of luxury and protection which kind of comes in. So, interior products, good innovation.

Similarly, in the whole area of waterproofing, wood finishes, a lot of products which are unique, for the first time for the Indian market and based on technological innovations to that extent. So, I think the stress here is that some of these products cannot be offered by competition very easily because it is either patented or in terms of coming with a huge technology which is there. So to that extent, it is something which we think will give us gains for a long period of time.

If you look at the overall year, as we see, I think distribution footprint, which has been the strength of Asian Paints is something which we looked at concentrating in a very big way. We looked at opening new retailers in big cities suburbs and T3, T4 cities in a strong way. So, today we have a unique model, where we are now co-existing on our distributor model and a direct dealer model as well, which has given us almost fifteen thousand retail points more this year, taking our total tally to about 1,45,000 retail points, which itself is a very, very strong number from the point of the footprint across the length and breadth of the country.

When we look at product category, again, as I said expansions into areas which have been very, very strong this year. Some of the things I just covered for you including new categories like adhesives and DIY Paints in terms of what we have kind of got into. The entire thing as a leader, what we are looking at is that, we are increasing the per capita consumption and enlarging the whole paint market in a strong way. So new categories to fuel growth. We have entered the wood polish market which we can convert the French polish players to a new product called Glomax, in terms of what we have introduced. We introduced Super Economy emulsions, which basically gets the unorganized emulsion user into an organized emulsion space strongly, and some of the categories, which I just covered, like the fire retardant glass, glass paints, floor paints, which are really enlarging the overall paint market in a very strong way. And that I think is a task of a leader in terms of looking at continuously exploring newer spaces, newer avenue, so that the per capita consumption of paint really kind of increases.

The other unique thing is that we have a very unique painting service model. We believe that globally this is the biggest and the best service model. No other company today, even outside the paint space has such a big model in terms of what it is delivering. It is across more than 240 towns, with 1,50,000 trained painters and customer delight coming through an NPS measure in terms of what we have put into place, and a range of services which we are offering through so that the customers are happy taking this service. So, we think this is a very strong servicing edge which cannot be replicated by anyone very easily, something which we have propagated and we are growing it bigger and bigger every year. Some of the glimpses of the services which we offer in terms of the Safe Painting Services and waterproofing and other things, which comes as part of the overall painting service which we have.

We look at, now the Home Decor business and I’m sure a lot of you have questions on home decor in terms of what we are doing. Today, I think the home decor foray is a very, very strong foray where we are looking at Asian Paints being a forerunner in the inspirational and exciting — as a exciting partner where we are also partnering the customer in the home decor, so that we can make her dream home come alive. So this is a transition from the share of surface to a share of space. So now we exist, not only between the — on the walls, but between the four walls as well. So this is the business, I want to reemphasize, it is complementing our existing business and adding to our Coatings business in a very big way, because the customer is the same and therefore what you are expanding is the customer lifecycle. So, you are talking of more touch points in the customer lifecycle, and therefore I think it really invigorates our core business as we kind of go forward.

Today, our endeavor is to provide home decor under one roof. Today, we are looking at Beautiful Home stores across the country. We have got 29 stores which offer kitchen, bath, sanitary ware, lighting, tiles, flooring, furnishing, furniture, doors and windows across one roof, under one roof to that extent. And in this category, if you see, today, we own kitchen, we own bath, we own on sanitary in terms of manufacturing. We have just bought a lighting company which is White Teak. We have got into furnishings with the company called GM Syntex, where we have done an alignment and we have got doors and windows through another acquisition, which we have done on Weatherseal. So, the idea is that today we are not looking at just procuring products, but we are looking at making our own products and Asian Paints having a way of decor going very strongly. We believe that today, by the end of this year we would have about 70 stores and we would be India’s biggest chain of stores of home decor in terms of how we see going forward to that extent.

We have a central inspiration model, which is called the beautifulhomes.com, which offers inspiration to the people, and we also have a Beautiful Home service, which is offering personalized interior decor to — our professional execution, which is offered in now, nine to 11 cities as we look at going forward. We also have a BH shop, which is offering a e-com kind of a potential, which is there to that extent. So if you see, all offerings are very, very strong and it’s a complete home decor foray which we have built over the last two, three years in a very strong manner to that extent. As part of this today, as I said, we have made investments across the products which are there. Overall, where today all products are getting kind of made by us. In designer and general tiles, we are making a greenfield foray ourselves. In wardrobes and vanities, again, there is a greenfield foray which we are getting into. And today, when you look at the designer wallpaper, we have set up a facility in Jaipur to an extent. Rugs, we have done alignment with Jaipur Rugs there, and as I said, two new acquisitions which have come.

So today, I think it’s a unique model, which we have and it’s a very strong model which is spread over e-com, physical execution and services altogether, which is a complete kind of set which we are offering. As I said, we aligned with this company, we took over this company. We announced it on 1st April 2022, the White Teak company, it’s a premium lighting company and we feel that it is a very strong alignment in terms of what we have done. Secondly, we have got this Weatherseal, which is making UPVC doors and windows and it’s a big segment in terms of what we are gunning at. And therefore, I think it gives us a lot of advantage in terms of going forward as we look at the home decor category.

Obviously coming to numbers, we think that home decor business this year, overall, if we see all the businesses, would be about 4% of our total decor business going forward. I think in the next about three years, we are aiming that we can take it to about 8% to 10% of our total business, and that also a profitable business so that, overall, this kind of really becomes a very strong point of galvanizing the company into a new trajectory going forward, and adds to the Coatings business in a strong way as we go ahead. So, I think this is something which is the story of home decor which I wanted to quickly tell you.

Going on to the other businesses, sorry kitchen and bath, which is part of this, both businesses have been really revolutionary this year. Kitchen business has been delivering INR100 crore plus for the third consecutive quarter and overall, if you see the growths have been very, very strong. In terms of the overall financial year, it has grown by 55%. Good growth in Q4 as well. Similarly, the Bath business has registered a very strong growth of 46%, and in Q4 about 17%. So overall, we see on a profitability front, both businesses are coming up fairly well.

Today Kitchen business has reduced the losses to just about minus INR2 crore this year over minus INR9 crore of last year to that extent. Overall — sorry, over a business or minus INR9 crore over the full year kind of a zone, which was there earlier. So today, we look at Kitchen contributing to minus INR9 crore, which is much better than what we did last year.

In Bath, overall, if you look at this year, we have done a INR4 crore, kind of a PBT which has come in to that extent in the quarter, it is INR1 crore. So, both businesses strongly delivering on the top and the bottom line, and I think today, this is the future in terms of what we are taking off the Kitchen and the Bath business going forward in a strong trajectory, with good profitability going forward.

Coming to International business. This business has been something where I think it has been a very tough year overall as we look at it. In quarter four, if we look at overall, we have still done a decent amount of business, which is there, overall to that extent. But if you look at the various regions, the highest growth comes in from Asia where basically the revenues have been stronger both in Q4 and the full year, followed by to some extent in Middle East and South Pacific. Africa has not done too well overall, in terms of looking at it. But the debacle this year has happened more from the point of view of profitability, given the very high amounts of inflation. We had taken some price increases, but not commensurate in terms of the overall increases to that extent.

And the second factor, which is contributing is the devaluation of the currency, which is in Sri Lanka. Ethiopia and Egypt, overall to that extent, and that is why, if you see the numbers in Africa are affected very, very strongly. So are the numbers affected in Middle East to that extent. Asia has done relatively better in Q4. We have got some profitability. But I think the whole thing what we are seeing in Sri Lanka has put the overall profitability down to that extent this year. So, on the whole, on the topline I think it is still a good growth in terms of what we are seeing in international business. However, from the point of view of profitability, I think the inflation has taken a toll coupled with the currency devaluation to that extent.

Going forward to the Industrial business. If we look at the entire business, which we call as the PPG AP business which is about the auto, OE, Auto re-finishes and the Marine Paints business overall to that extent, this year has been a relatively good year in terms of what we see. For a year, we see a 32% kind of a growth. For the quarter, we have a 19% growth which is there to that extent. In the other business, which is the AP PG business, which is a general Industrial business, which we see, this has done phenomenally well. In fact, it has grown by 51% for the year, clocking almost close to INR800 crore of business which has come in and in quarter four also, the business has been very, very strong.

I think the good part is, the profitability for both the businesses, which is the PPG AP, as well as the AP PG business has been strong and we are seeing good growth on both the businesses together to that extent, and therefore I think Industrial overall has grown at a good clip, both in Q4 as well as for the entire year.

There are some exceptional items which we would like good draw your attention to. Obviously, today, there is — when we put up a plant, we get some subsidies from the state governments and the state and the subsidiaries take a little bit of time from, the realization of this money is really coming to us physically to that extent and therefore, what we have looked at is basically creating a method where we are looking at how to account for these, because the realizations of this are not known in terms of when they will happen to that extent. And therefore, we have provided for two amounts here, one is the INR53.7 crores, which is what we have taken as one set of subsidy, which is there, which is for the previous years to that extent. And the second is, what we have taken as a subsidiary of INR31.1 crores, which is there, which is for the current year in terms of what we are kind of assessing. So I think these are the two kind of subsidy exceptional items, which are kind of coming, which is impacting the profit.

The third is the story in terms of Lanka where possibly we are seeing that there is a currency devaluation, which has taken place, which has led to almost a recognition of an expense of about INR48.5 crore towards the exchange loss. And second, we have a company called Causeway there, which we had acquired some time back and there we are looking at an impairment provision of about INR13.5 crore as an exceptional item on goodwill on consolidation recognized on the acquisition of Causeway. So, I think these are the two big items which are coming, which are affecting the overall profits at the standalone, as well as the consolidated level to that extent, which are there.

We look at — overall, if you look at, you’re familiar with this in terms of what we had presented. Overall, if you look at from the point of gross margins, I think this trajectory had gone down to quarter two to about 35% and then in Q3, we brought it to about 37% and in Q4, after the price increases in terms of what we have taken, the gross margin is quite good, relatively speaking at about 40% to that extent. Helped also by price increases in the fact that in Q4, we did not see too much of an inflation. It was just about 1% to that extent. So therefore, I think the good story is that the gross margins are back to that extent, which is happening. Obviously, I think we have to watch out because Q1 story is now again inflationary, which is looking at about 5% to 7% kind of an inflation happening in Q1, where also we are taking some measures as we kind of go forward.

Overall, in the summary, you look at the stand-alone financials. So overall, as we said, we just discussed that on the net sales there is a 22% kind of a growth, overall which has come in. If you look at PBT, PBT is a strong 14% which you are seeing. This is before the exceptional items and if you see the PAT, PAT is about 10% for Q4. So, these figures are all for Q4. And I think they are very, very strong numbers, because the bases were very high to that extent, coupled with the fact that January was a COVID month, which was like a whitewash month to that extent. So the quarter was a two-month quarter in a way to look at in that way.

If you look at the full year, again, I think the standalone financials are very strong at 37% net sales kind of a growth which you are seeing overall. PBDIT, which is also strong in terms of which has come up along with the PBT and the PAT numbers, which are there. Overall, if you see the PBDIT margins have really improved in Q4 to that extent and so have the gross margins, as I said to that extent. So the PBDIT margins for Q4 are back to the 20.2% which is there to that extent. So, which is a good recovery which has happened in terms of the PBDIT margins overall to that extent.

Let’s look at the consol numbers. Again, if you see for the quarter four, overall, good numbers on net sales, 21%. Even in terms of PBT numbers if you see, you are looking at a clear 13% kind of a growth which is coming and the PAT number, and the PAT is flat, because obviously, in terms of the exceptional expenses we have taken and also the global business, which has possibly under delivered overall to that extent. On the year front, obviously, the top line numbers are good. The bottom line numbers are affected overall for the full year because of the global performance and the exceptional items which have come in terms of the overall PAT which is there. But overall, the top line looks pretty good in terms of what we have been able to deliver.

In terms of dividends, again, I think we have been a steady player in terms of rewarding the shareholders to that extent and for even the current year, we have given a 58.6% payout to that extent, and that is something which is a reward for possibly a good performance in terms of what has happened this year. So I think overall, this trajectory has been fairly good.

Some of the conditions, as a immediate outlook as we see overall, as I said, the demand conditions can be a little tough. We don’t know in terms of what is going to happen, but we are still confident that what we saw in March and — Feb and March, I think the trajectory should be good in terms of going forward from the point of view of demand. The only worry is that, if there is a COVID scenario which comes back or the other big problem is the inflation in terms of what is there so far. The inflation, obviously, as we have stated here, we are taking some calibrated price increases. We have already taken two increases this quarter and we will see in terms of, if we have to take more increases going forward. But, we are putting in place a very, very strong structure for sourcing and formulation efficiencies, which we can get, so that we can counter the effect of the inflation going forward overall.

Monsoons are supposed to be good. So I think the trajectory of T3, T4 cities, we are confident that should kind of pick up and should be good as we kind of go forward. Global market challenges will continue for some time. We don’t think so the situation in Sri Lanka is under control to that extent, and Egypt and Ethiopia possibly will fight back in the second half of the year, but Sri Lanka would always remain as a concern, because it will take some time to kind of tick — situation to kind of really become normalized.

Just a brief on our journey in terms of what we are taking as the ESG and that is a very strong Asian Paints has been kind of making. Over the years, we have specifically looked at environment, social and governance here. In the environment strongly looking at product stewardship as one strong thing. Water, energy is something which is a very strong objective which we have kind of taken, and I think a strong journey, which is kind of pursuing in those areas.

As far as social is concerned, strong amount of community work which is happening. We have taken a strong work of water, water harvesting and whole area of water stewardship is a very strong area in terms of what we have kind of invoked. The whole area of making the entire environment energizing, equitable, and inclusive, I think those are strong elements in terms of what we are kind of bringing with our policies and looking at giving that kind of empowerment to the employees going forward to that extent.

Finally, in terms of governance. I think this has been a strong point at Asian Paints and this is something which we give a lot of weightage to and therefore we look at a world-class governance which is coming and they put engaging with stakeholders proactively and looking at complete transparency in terms of going forward as we look at. So, I think these are the responsible choices we are making as far as the ESG journey goes. Some elements which we will keep on highlighting to you as we kind of go forward, I think sustainable products is a very strong zone, Green Seal, Green Assure, these are some of the standards which we are kind of doing. We have about 187 products which have been certified by the CIAI, IGBC as a green products through that extent.

And similarly, we are in the process of eliminating a lot of ingredients. So, for example, lead was eliminated for — by us way back to that extent and subsequently, we kind of look out some of the elements, like there is respirable crystal and silica and so on and so forth to that extent. And this is a continuous initiative, which will kind of keep on going to so that we are able to look at green products in a very strong way.

The other is the whole area of the carbon footprint, and here is something which is a continuous kind of work, which is going on, not only with respect to our plants, but also looking at supply chain, looking at our offices and the complete 360 degrees in terms of seeing what is the kind of work we can do at shrinking the carbon footprint in terms of going forward.

Lastly, if you look at from the point of view of the work which we have done, I think it is pretty strong in terms of that, not only we are looking at reduction in terms of what we consume in terms of water, but also replenishment, and that I think is a big story in terms of what we are doing and I think these two kind of go together with respect to the whole area of environment conservation in a very strong manner. Similarly, when we look at from the point of view of electricity, okay, we have 59% electricity from the renewable sources which is coming, and we have also reduced the electricity consumption internally. Strong objective, both ways, which are coming.

Similarly, the industrial effluent generation is something which we are reducing and we are always — already got into a zero effluent discharge from our factories, and I think this is a very strong initiative in terms of what has been taken by us towards the environment. And lastly, in terms of looking at plastics, so, more and more areas in terms of recycling, collecting the plastic and then seeing in terms of what we can do about it in terms of going forward. So I wanted to kind of give you just a flavor in terms of the ESG, what we are doing and there is lots more which can be put in three slides together, but I think that is a big focus in terms of as a leader we are taking in the industries to make a mark that we are socially responsible and those are the choices we are taking.

So, the other thing, which is what we would like to kind of do it, as part of the social thing which is concerned, the CSR. we have touched very, very strongly. Good numbers. We have a vocational training. We do about 3,60,000 such trainings. In terms of the health and hygiene, we kind of really cover almost like 2,70,000 beneficiaries which are there. And in terms of water management, that is a big thing which we are taking possibly in a lot of areas, where plants — where plants are located, where we are looking at recharging the water through various initiatives to that extent. So you can see the plethora of work which is happening in these areas, which is extremely strong.

So these were some of the things which I wanted to brief. So overall, in summary, a strong quarter which is there. A range of initiatives, a lot of innovation which has come in and we believe that it has been a very, very strong objective for us to kind of look at the full year being delivered in this manner in a COVID kind of trajectory, which we have seen this year as well. Thank you so much.

Questions and Answers:

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

Thank you, sir. We’ll begin with the Q&A now. [Operator Instructions].

Our first question is from Mr. Avi Mehta who has joined us on Zoom. Sir, please unmute yourself, state your name and your company name and ask your question.

Avi Mehta — Macquarie Group Limited — Analyst

Hi. This is Avi here from Macquarie. I had two questions specifically. First essentially is on the price, the input cost environment. What is the extent of price increases that you are looking or would need to pass on the current inflation, or put it differently, what is the crude price that is there after these two price increases that you’ve taken, which is almost about 1%, 2% odd? If you could give us that sense.

And more broadly, while you’re kind of answering that, if you could give us a sense on the demand strength, because you did sound a little concerned on the demand strength and hence, do you expect that the time it will take to pass this inflation will be longer than what it is historically been? That was to my first question.

Would you want me to go to the second now or….

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

No. I will answer this question. So overall when you look at from the point of view of inflation, as I said that in quarter one, which we are seeing an inflation of close to about 5% to 7% and this is across the range of raw materials, including TiO2 solvents and it is and so on and so forth to that extent. We have taken roughly a price increase of about 1.8% to about 2% kind of increase which is spread across two months in terms of increase on 1st of May and an increase on 1st June in terms of there. In addition, we are looking at a very strong initiative which we have launched internally in terms of sourcing and formulation efficiencies, and looking at alternate RMs in a very strong way, and we think that we should be able to cover a large chunk of the inflation also through some of these initiatives which are kind of coming in.

As we go forward, we need to kind of balance the consumer demand and also looking at the price increases in terms of what we pass on to the market as a responsible industry leader to that extent, and therefore, what we are looking going forward, as some calibrated increases which we might do depending on the kind of savings which we are able to get overall. So, I think this is going to be a cycle which we will continuously assess in terms of going forward and look at possibly, some more calibrated price increases coming as we kind of go forward, depending on the kind of savings in terms of what we are seeing and also observing the geopolitical situation in terms of how it kind of really quietens down. So that’s part one.

The second part is with respect to demand. We feel that in the quarter four, the price inflation did affect a little bit of a demand in terms of some of the T3, T4 cities where possibly people kind of really — kind of deferred their paint demand, since paint demand is discretionary in nature to that extent and some amount of downgrading from premium to luxury to economy in the T1, T2 cities in terms of what we would have seen. But as I said, February and March were high growth, high double-digit volume growth numbers. So which means, we feel that the inherent demand in the market would still kind of play on. We must remember that people have seen two years of solid uncertainty with because of COVID and therefore, there is still a latent demand, which is still there, which we will see in the coming months and quarters to that extent.

And therefore, I feel that on the demand conditions, if the current situation persist, I think the demand conditions should be good. We are not expecting possibly another COVID around coming to that extent because I think the third round of vaccinations have already started to that extent. So, I think as we kind of go forward, we are pretty confident about the consumer demand given the Feb, March indications and whatever we see of April currently to that extent going forward. The only concern would be that inflation should not play a spoilsport, because if the inflation goes up largely, we would be kind of constrained to take larger price increases in the market to that extent, which will definitely effect some of the economy products in terms of the demand which is there, because finally there is a price elasticity which matters in terms of looking at consumer purchases. But overall, we are pretty confident that the current situation, I think the consumer demand should be very good because Feb, March and April, we have seen that.

Avi Mehta — Macquarie Group Limited — Analyst

Got it, sir. Got it. My second and last question was on the home decor piece. While we are looking to increase the touch points, could you give me a sense of the positioning? Is this more a quality product at a value kind of position or which is not available in the market or is this more of convenience, wherein all products are available under one roof? What will be Asian Paints’ focus over here?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

So, we are looking at something what we call as the affordable luxury. So this is something which is kind of pegged at a premium kind of a level but at the same time a strong connotation of the value for money, which also comes in. This is definitely not in the space of Uber luxury, at the top end in terms of what we see. But we look at possibly affordable luxury in a very strong manner and the whole theme is there, that Asian Paints is looking at a certain way of decor. So Asian Paints is propagating a certain we have decor. It is like fashion in terms of what you propagate and as I said, I think the big story here is that you are talking of physical assets which are in terms of stores, you are talking of a big service, which is our implementation service and you are talking of categories, where there is a strong manufacturing angle or an acquisition angle, which we have taken.

So I think all in all, it kind of really gives a very strong signal that there is a strong seriousness and there is a strong kind of inclination in terms of making this category big.

Avi Mehta — Macquarie Group Limited — Analyst

Okay, sir. Thank you. That’s all from my side.

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

Thank you, sir. Our next question is from Abneesh Roy who has joined us on the tele-calling platform. Sir, please state your name and company name before asking the question. [Operator Instructions]

Abneesh Roy — Edelweiss Financial Services Limited — Analyst

Hello. Yeah. Hi. This is Abneesh Roy from Edelweiss. Congrats on the strong performance. My first question is on waterproofing and wood finishing. So, you mentioned you have come out with unique products and Indi-first products and these are based on patents and technology. So, now there is a very strong adhesive player, which has got a brand for a much longer timeframe and very strong advertising also. So, when you say unique and India-first product, is this against broader market or is this against the adhesive player also.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Okay. So when we look at the waterproofing space, Abneesh, we are looking at going forward, one being the undisputed players as far as the retail offering is concerned, because if you look at from the point of view of retail offering, it is all about solutioning. It is about giving a solution to the customer, which is very, very important in terms of what is there. So when we are talking of unique products, for example, I’ll give you example of a product called Hydroloc, which we have come by, which has a unique technology that it kind of really doesn’t allow water from inside to come outside on to the wall, at the same time, it has a technology where it — when it comes in contact with water, it forms crystals. Okay. So that it blocks the water to kind of come out. So I think the technologies which we are talking are very, very unique and no other, I repeat, no other player today in India and abroad has a technology like that for a retail market in terms of what we are placing. And we think, that today we are the number one players as far as the waterproofing category is concerned, as far as retail goes to that extent.

When you look at the category from the point of view of a B2B segment and an institutional project segment, which is largely construction and the players, there are a lot of multinationals like the Fosroc, BASF, Sika which are players, which are there to that extent. We are today, stepping up our chemistries and looking at a lot of solutions which we are launching, which are in the spaces of not only liquid membranes, but other kind of membranes which are kind of coming, which are very strong technological back products which are there to that extent. So today, I think, that is an area where today only the multinationals are strong and there is no other player in India which is strong o that extent, which is there and we are looking and targeting in terms of getting some very strong kind of business in that area also.

I can only tell you that I think over the last seven years, we have been literally looking at doubling the numbers here in terms of going forward. So we think it’s a very strong objective and we are much ahead of any other company in India or the world in terms of looking at the technology in waterproofing.

Abneesh Roy — Edelweiss Financial Services Limited — Analyst

And sir, my last question is on Sleek. So you had acquired Sleek in 2017. It’s now almost by INR100 crore exit run rate business also and very strong 33% Y-o-Y growth, 14% quarter-on-quarter growth. Even after four years — see, every quarter there is a small loss. So, is it advertising spend? And second, Sleek, after four years, it’s still loss making. You also made a comment that home decor, in the next four, five years, I think you will on the —you will target a profit here. So taking Sleek into consideration, how easy will home decor — because that’s much smaller scale also. The home decor, Sleek which is already INR500 crore run rate, so how easy will profit be in home decor in the next four, five years?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Okay. So first of all, I must say that Sleek, as we have seen that, we — last two years, I think there are quarters which Sleek has delivered profit as well overall to that extent. This year, overall, if you look at the numbers, I think the numbers are very strong. There is a very small loss which is there. We are very confident that as we come into the current year, I think the current year would be total profit year for Sleek as we look at going forward. Bath is already on a profit trajectory in terms of what do you see this year to that extent. So going forward, if you look at the home decor category, whether it is the Fabric business or whether it is the Beautiful Homes business or whether it is the White Teak business, today, it’s not that people are not making money. The White Teak’s business today is that a very strong EBITDA of more than 20% in terms of what they earn out of it.

So it’s a category where you can make money in terms of going forward to that extent. And therefore, we believe that the trajectory which we’re taking is very strong and it would be a profitable category as we go ahead. Even today, what we are confident, that both Bath and Sleek will now continuously come into the positive trend as we kind of go forward and so would other categories as we look at the next about two to three years.

Abneesh Roy — Edelweiss Financial Services Limited — Analyst

Thanks, Amit. That’s all from my side. Thank you.

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

Thank you, sir. Our next question is from Mr. Shirish Pardeshi, who joined us on Zoom. Sir, please unmute yourself, state your name and company name and ask your question.

Shirish Pardeshi — Centrum Broking Limited — Analyst

Yeah. Hi Amit, good evening. Thank you for the opportunity. Actually I am delighted and you have a double, congratulations. So, one is the good set of numbers, and I’m happy that next five years we will interact with you continuously. So on that tone, I have two questions. One on domestic decorative. You said that the demand conditions which are a bit hazy at this point of time, but you also made a very strong comment that monsoon in a row, three years is going to be very strong. So in that context, if you can help me, because T3, T4, the performance has been a little volatile in the last three to four quarters, but T1, T2 is very strong. So there are two parts to this question. For FY22, if you can break up what is T1, T2 contribution and what is T3, T4 contribution to overall Decorative business?

And the touch point what you have said is that is a stronger outcome of the need that we are expecting a very strong growth in T3, T4 and how much more we can grow in terms of distribution?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Okay. So if you look at possibly the contributions roughly for T3, T4 versus T1, T2 would be in the zone of about 40%, 45% to 60%, 65% kind of a zone, which is there to that extent. So obviously, I think the contribution from T3, T4 is higher in terms of what we see, because the number of towns are very, very large to that extent. What we see is that the T3,T4 has been fueled also by a large distribution strategy as I pointed out to that extent, where there are new retailers coming, new customers kind of coming into the belt to that extent, and that is something which is also fueling the entire T3, T4 market in a very strong manner to that extent.

So for the year, as I said, the T1, T2 has grown faster, obviously to some extent which is there, because what we are seeing is that because of the migration of the customers which is happening, the T1, T2 cities are getting more and more populated as well to that extent. So the T1, T2 contributions are increasing over a period of time to that extent as we kind of go ahead. Overall, what I see very clearly is that the T3, T4 cities are also very strongly dependent on the aggregarian income and the aggregarian kind of forecast which happens in the country. As I said, monsoons predicted are normal this year overall. So I don’t see that there should be any reason why we should not see good growth in T3, T4, coupled with our distribution, which will kind of continuously continue to that extent. The only — one hitch which is there is, that today there is a certain price elasticity and for a consumer, if there are too many price increases, which are there, then I think to some extent, there is a deferment in terms of the paint category, which starts happening over a period of time.

So I think that is the only concern. If the inflation figure goes haywire, right now, I think it is still controllable to that extent. But if the inflation goes haywire, like what we saw it last year to that extent, now that could have an impact on the demand. But I don’t think so that is a probability. So therefore, my prediction is that I think for the coming year, both, T3, T4 and T1, T2 should do quite well.

Shirish Pardeshi — Centrum Broking Limited — Analyst

Okay. That’s really helpful. My second and last question is on the International. So, I just made a rough calculation. Out of INR28,000 crore what we have done around 13.5% contribution comes from the International business. So my question is specifically on, you said that there is some volatility in terms of currency headwind, especially you called out Sri Lanka and….

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Egypt and Ethiopia.

Shirish Pardeshi — Centrum Broking Limited — Analyst

Egypt and Ethiopia. So, just one question on that, out of that 13.5%, maybe broadly, if you can say that, what — how much quantum of the business is at stake because of these three geographies?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

So, if you look at, there is a Sri Lanka, there is Ethiopia and there is Egypt. So roughly, I would say that the quantum which would get affected is about 5% or so, 5% to 6% of the total.

Parag Rane — General Manager, Finance

Of the total Group.

Shirish Pardeshi — Centrum Broking Limited — Analyst

Of the total Group.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Of the total Group.

Parag Rane — General Manager, Finance

So, about roughly 40%, 45% of the overall sort of portfolio.

Shirish Pardeshi — Centrum Broking Limited — Analyst

Okay. Okay. Thank you. That’s really helpful Parag, and Amit, all the best to you.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

Thank you, sir. Our next question is from Mr. Saumil Mehta who has joined us on the tele-calling platform. Sir, you may please ask your question now.

Saumil Mehta — Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company Limited — Analyst

Yeah. Thanks for the opportunity. Saumil Mehta from Kotak Life. Two questions. One is continuation to one of the previous questions that we have a distribution footprint [Indecipherable] point. That’s a very high number. What I wanted to understand is, over the next two or three years, should we believe calculation from those touch point similar to what we have today or probably there will be cannibalization to that spend. A lot of the distribution will be T3, T4, where the revenue per outlet is far lower than what you are right now.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Sorry, I couldn’t get your question. Could you repeat it, please.

Saumil Mehta — Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company Limited — Analyst

In terms of the distribution touch point, wherein we have added 50,000 more touch points in ways, how should we look at the contribution from those touch points over the next two or three years? Can that number will be similar to what we do today, [Indeipherable]. That’s my first question.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Okay. So see, today what we feel is that —- we frankly feel that for the coming four, five years, 10 years, I think and we don’t see any saturation happening in those numbers because I think India is a rapidly expanding market to that extent and we are kind of trying to reach the smallest of the towns and the cities to that extent and in each town, we find that there are more and more retailers which are kind of coming, given the population which is there, and the low capita — per capita consumption of paint, which is there to that extent. So that also is kind of increasing every year overall.

So I think there is nothing, which we see as the cannibalization happening in terms of going forward there. From the point of view of contributions, as I said, see the distribution expansion is happening in both T1, T2 cities, as well as the T3, T4 cities to that extent. So therefore, as I said, both, both the quantum are going to increase to that extent and therefore what we see that this would be a strong source of contribution in terms of our overall growth as we kind of go ahead. At the same time there is the existing set of retail points, which will also continuously keep on growing to that extent. So, I feel that while these are larger distribution points, I think the contribution, which they kind of make is good and substantial. But overall, this is a process which will continue.

Saumil Mehta — Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company Limited — Analyst

Okay. My second and last question. I believe you were also in race to acquire the white cement business of [Technical Issues] which have finally been acquired by a large player. Do we expect any sort of sourcing issues in terms of white cement for our putty business, because the idea of asking, if I look at for the last two to three years, the increase in the putty business fraction from paints and cement players is far higher than the white cement production. So at some point in time, do we believe getting a better sourcing of white cement for our putty business might be a challenge?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

So as a strategy we keep on looking at backward integration in a very strong way. So as you are aware, we already make one of the raw materials called Pentaerythritol in terms of what we make ourselves to that extent. We are also making a lot of emulsions and certain ingredients which go into paint to that extent. So we keep on looking at opportunities which are coming, whether it is in putty or whether it is in paint to that extent which is there. And as part of that foray, I think today we would kind of be eager to kind of look at saying that, if there is an opportunity which comes in terms of investing in backward integration, which is a strong product from a long-term paint consumption point of view, and we think that we can put some technology in that to kind of grow that area. I think we would kind of really be interested as part of that and therefore not particular to putty, but for all other categories, we look at the backward integration in a very strong manner.

Saumil Mehta — Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance Company Limited — Analyst

Sure. Thank you so much and all the best.

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

Thank you, sir. Our next question is from Mr. Richard Liu who has joined us on the Zoom platform. Sir, please unmute yourself, state your name and company name and ask your question.

Richard Liu — JM Financial Limited — Analyst

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I just wanted to check… am I audible?

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

Yes, sir.

Richard Liu — JM Financial Limited — Analyst

Okay. Got it. Thank you. I just wanted to check this part of gross margin, if I look at your standalone accounts, the Y-on-Y growth COGS is about the 51%. On that you stated that your volume growth was about [Indecipherable]. So, it mathematically implies that the increase in raw material cost per unit is about 17% to 18%. [Technical Issues]

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Richard, your voice is echoing a lot actually. I don’t know. Your voice is echoing a lot.

Richard Liu — JM Financial Limited — Analyst

Okay. Is this better?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, a little bit.

Richard Liu — JM Financial Limited — Analyst

Okay. So what I was talking about was that you know that if I look at the inflation and COGS per unit, based on your standalone accounts, that seems to be a bigger —- so the value growth in COGS is about 51% against that you had a volume growth of 31%. Right. So, it implies that inflation in — the inflation in COGS per unit is about 17%. Against that, if I look at your headline cost increases, TiO2 inflation as far as what the Bloomberg data suggests, is about 29% to 30%. Crude is up 60% to 65%. So, the blended would be anywhere, I guess be about putting 35% to 40%. Now against a 35% to 40% blended inflation in your RM mix, the COGS published data seems to suggest that your per unit cost inflation is just about 17%. Now, I know you talked about internal efficiencies et cetera, et cetera, but the inflation flow through factor, if I can call it that, seems to be less than 50% of what your — what the headlined data of raw material prices suggest. Can you just throw some light on this should because [Technical Issues] and how should we look at this playing out as part of FY23 is concerned.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Okay. See, I think you will have to look at possibly a different way of calculation today because if we look at possibly the last year, total inflation how we kind of peg it is across various quarters in terms of, we see is something like about a 32% to 34% kind of our overall inflation in terms of what we see, against which we have already taken 24%, 25% kind of our overall increase, which is there to that extent. You also see the gross margins. In Q4, we are almost at about a 40% gross margin, as compared to possibly a year before, which was at something like about 44% or a 45% kind of a zone. So the deficit is about, if you see about a 4% kind of a deficit which is there.

The rest is kind of getting covered a lot by the fact that, one, the percentages like you can calculate is that TiO2 goes in a certain percentage across the variable kind of products in a very different manner. Some products, TiO2 is higher, some products, TiO2 is lower and similar stories for solvents to that extent, and in our base, there is a larger quantum of water-based anyway. So we kind of get shielded if there is a larger solvent base increase which kind of takes place. So which means, that for every company the kind of inflation would be very different depending on the product mix in terms of what they have.

So from that point of view, today, I think the gross margins in Q4 which are closer to about 40%, as I said, that possibly 4%, 5% lower than year before kind of margins, which were there to that extent. So I think we were pretty comfortable to that extent. It’s only in Q1 where we are seeing another 5% to 7% kind of a increase, against which we have already taken almost about 1.8% to 2% kind of overall increase. So I think the calculation, which we need to kind of take is different and this way, what you are kind of arriving at, possibly doesn’t come to the numbers which I’m indicating to you.

Richard Liu — JM Financial Limited — Analyst

And Amit, while we are at it, can you also help understand the so-called mix impact that we are realizing. I think that was the number that we think was about 4% to 6% depending on which quarter we are talking about. If I look at the volume growth number to the value growth numbers that you have recorded for Q4, the so called mixed valuation impacts need to be the order of 10% to 11%.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

No. So you’re talking of the product mix contribution in terms of solvent and water-based?

Richard Liu — JM Financial Limited — Analyst

No, I’m talking about — so based on the headline price increase that you’ve talked about over a period of time. I would think that the Y-on-Y increase in headline unit prices is about 20% plus.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Okay.

Richard Liu — JM Financial Limited — Analyst

Now, you reported about a 21% value growth in the paint business, against which the volume growth is 8% right. So, the implied pricing component in your growth is just about 13% versus your headline price increase of 12% [Phonetic]. So the mix, the adverse mix impacts seems to be like 9% to 10% versus what used to be about 4% to 6%.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

No. So, Richard, see, I think the other problem, which is there, see, for quarter when you calculate, it becomes a different picture because there is a raw material inventory of the previous quarter, which carries on to the subsequent quarter for two months or so. So it is very difficult to put a quarterly number to that extent in terms of looking at it. You will have to look at yearly number in terms of what I just gave you in terms of the overall kind of margins in terms of what we are enjoying to that extent as of now to that extent. And as I said, that what we’ll have to look at from the point of view that overall, we have grown by a value of about 37% this year in terms of what you see. We have taken price increases, which are about 24% to 25% in terms of which are there. The total inflation which we are talking is about 34% to 35% kind of a zone, 32% to 34% kind of a zone. So I think those are the numbers which possibly you will have to crunch to kind of understand. I don’t think so you can go quarter to quarter.

Richard Liu — JM Financial Limited — Analyst

Okay. Okay. Let me ask as a easier one. You’ve talked about non-direct dealer, right, of which you have now made. Can you help us understand how big is that part of the business? How much is that contributing to there now?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

So, actually, there is no concept like a non-direct dealer because see there are dealers which are there, are paint dealers and there are dealers which we are touching through the distributor to that extent. Okay. So I think this is a combination where there are distributors now, who are supplying some part of the paint, some part of the waterproofing, some part of the wood finishes to that extent. So it’s a mix, kind of a zone in terms of what is there. So I would principally qualify that with all these 1.5 lakh retail our outlets, we are almost directly in touch, either with the dealer or through the distributor.

Richard Liu — JM Financial Limited — Analyst

Okay. I’ll probably take it over with Parag. Thank you much.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Okay.

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

Thank you, sir. Our next question is from Mr. Varun Singh, who has joined us on the tele calling platform. Sir, please state your name and company name and ask your question. Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. My name is Varun Singh from IDBI Capital. Sir, my question is on the Home Improvement business. So how do we expect to share management bandwidth given that we expect this category to become quite meaningful in next three to four years. So, what changes should we expect with regards to how we wish to drive growth in all the three categories, I mean the Kitchen, Bath business, waterproofing and at other home improvement categories. If you can share some thought over this point, sir.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

So what we are doing is that as and when we are kind of adding this businesses, so for example, the moment we added a fabric kind of business we’ve added people both from the point of view of sales and marketing to that extent, which is there. Similarly, as the lighting business kind of comes in and in terms of other categories. so there is a set of design professionals we are adding who have competencies with respect to some of these categories. And then there are salespeople who possibly are able to kind of leverage this kind of categories to that extent, and there is a third set of people like the people who are trained slightly, especially to kind of take it to the architects and the designers to that extent.

So what we are progressively doing is that as and when we are adding the categories, we are looking at adding numbers in terms of that particular category. At the same time, at the core of it, we are putting a very strong design structure, which are there, which will include specialist who would kind of come into each category and they will look at new ranges, new designs, which would kind of come in, which would kind of match with what’s really happening as overall trends in India and the world.

Varun Singh — IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Limited — Analyst

Understood, sir. So I mean broadly, we are not expecting much changes at the top management level with regard to how we wish to manage the growth in these three categories for next maybe three to four years.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

So today we are putting people at GM and VP level as well in terms of some of these categories to that extent, but it’s not that there is a very strong — that there is a CEO or someone kind of coming as a category to that extent. So I think it is more at the possibly mid-management to a senior level in terms of what we are putting, along with the people who are coming to manage the overall areas with the network and also with the designers.

Varun Singh — IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Limited — Analyst

Understood sir. The second question is on, the numbers that you have given is quite encouraging with regards to more than doubling the number of stores, from 29 to 70 by the end the current financial year. Also, with regard to how we wish to sell the products in the home improvement category sir, I mean why —- how are you thinking with regards to selling this product under one roof rather than trying to sell it through a distributor led model, the way we have the distribution model in the paint business? So any insight that you can share on the distribution approach, why only through stores and why you’re not through distributors?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

So, actually it is a dual selling strategy, which is there, the larger propagators are basically the Beautiful Home stores which I spoke of, which from 29, we will take to that number of 70 in terms of what we are talking of and these stores would be bigger sellers, because they are kind of pitching to the consumer, the full kind of home decor at one shot in terms of the whole area of design and execution in a strong manner.

The other structure, which we have is that like we have a structure in Kitchen and Bath where we have a set of dealers and distributors who are independently selling kitchen and bath products. Similarly in fabric, we have now almost a 500 to 600 kind of retail set, which is kind of selling the fabric as well. So, and when we have acquired White Teak, they have their own stores which are coming with the acquisition to that extent. So as we kind of go forward you will have a dual structure of selling, where there is consolidated home decor being sold through. We have Beautiful Homes. And then each of the categories is being sold by the network in terms of what we create around those if possible to be sold to that extent and they kind of sell only one or two categories, whereas the store will sell close to about anywhere between 12 to 16 categories.

Varun Singh — IDBI Capital Markets & Securities Limited — Analyst

Understood, sir. Thank you very much for the detailed answers.

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

Thank you, sir. Our next question is from Mr. Amit Sachdeva who has joined us on Zoom. Sir, please unmute yourself. State your name and company and ask your question.

Amit Sachdeva — HSBC Holdings plc — Analyst

Hi, good evening everybody and thank you for taking my question. My name is Amit Sachdeva from HSBC. I have sir two questions. First coming back on margins. Basically, last year as you rightly say that 400 bps margin has come down, when it 44% in Q4 and is ending at 39% and a bit. Now going ahead, there are two issues. One basically, there is some inflation as you’ve said in Q1, but can you also describe the mix effect, which could be different in Q1 relative to Q4 and also in this context, given the base is benign, should we look at now gross margin being sort of expansionary rather than contractionary in this particular year in FY23? What is your template thinking right now. We are not asking for any guidance, but it seems like you’re in a comfortable position relative to margins. Your volume base is very high but margin basis very benign. So how are you thinking about it?

Related question to that is, a strategic, whether you —- whether Asian Paints as a leader would like now margin to actually hover around 41%, 42% but not go back to 44% because there are so many new entrants. Would you like to keep the maybe pricing discipline. May be enforced in some sense that there is no question, is there a competitive angle to it as well? That’s question number one. And then I’ll ask my second question.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Okay. So first of all, when we look at the whole story of margins, see, going to Q1, I don’t think so that there is a very strong change in the mix which kind of really happens because the quarter-to-quarter, we don’t see too much of a mix change which happens except for a little bit in around the Diwali in terms of what we see that around that. four weeks to six weeks, there is a little bit of a different kind of a mix, which gets invoked but otherwise, I don’t see that there is going to be mix which is going to be very, very different in terms of going forward.

The other thing is that currently, as you said, rightly, we have reached about a 40% kind of a gross margin which is there. As we see it, 44%, 45% kind of margin is a little bit unrealistic in terms of going forward. I think it was also when possibly the prices were at its lowest in terms of, the inflation was just not there and in fact, it was more of a deflation at that point of time to that extent. And therefore, we would kind of really see it that we keep it in the band of 41% 42% kind of a percent in terms of the overall gross margins going forward.

And with respect to pricing, I think what we are very clear is that, we would very clearly look at certain modeling it around the price elasticity where we can see that there is a certain affordability, which we can get to the customer, because we would not like that the demand should kind of get affected and we would be responsive as a leader in terms of looking at that in terms of how we would like to kind of peg the overall pricing. But going forward in terms of — we would still kind of see that we would like to maintain that band off 18% to 20% from the point of view of the EBITDA margins going forward as well.

So I think that is the dual role in terms of what we will keep on playing in terms of saying that, how do we kind of really peg our pricing? how do we look at our overall EBITDA margins in terms of this thing because what we see is that this year, again the volatility of inflation will continue to some extent. We are not getting an indication that the second half of the year, currently is kind of giving us any comfort that it will be benign in terms of the inflation — from an inflation point of view. So I think we will have to keep on looking from quarter to quarter and in terms of how we do, as I said, your price increases will have to be calibrated to see that what gross margins you are maintaining and possibly, what is the kind of work which we are doing with respect to cost saving as we kind of go forward.

So I think it will be a combination of all that so.

Amit Sachdeva — HSBC Holdings plc — Analyst

That’s very, very helpful, Amit and thank you so much for this.

My second quick question is on decor business and in the decor basically, obviously there is a service element, there is a product element, and there you are combining various elements together, including lighting, furniture, design elements, bathroom fittings, to kitchen. It is the entire offer of basically new home to existing home being renovated. So I can clearly see the value proposition and also describe this affordable luxury proposition. And so you are targeting a typical households. I can imagine, in that, can I get your thoughts a little bit more clear as well here, is that whether the real focus is on selling products and value capture is largely on the product or traded product or our owned products or services element which are integrated with it.

So my sense is, services should be free and product is where you’re capturing the value and is a service element is entirely outsourced and how are you integrating that? Because it is a very complex ecosystem that is interacting, it is not very simple. It may sound very simple, but how are you balancing this so many elements interacting and have you executed few projects already and what was the size of those projects? So far in the month, it has been launched and what is the going to learning so far. If you can help us explain the way we can understand the business and model it going forward. Theoretically can this be humongous opportunity, but can company like Asian Paints — my worry is that, company like you can capture value in the product, but not in service. Services can complicate the hell lot, because it just brings an element which you [indecipherable] random people. Sorry about long question, but you get where I’m coming from.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. No. So just to clarify. First of all, I think we are looking at value in terms of a combination of offering inspiration to the customer, which is in terms of visualization. Second in terms of the qualities or what we bring it in the product in terms of what we are offering. And the third element, which is very important, is the whole area of execution and bringing delight to the consumer. So if you look at today, in the world, there is no player who offers visualization, coupled with the execution to the glory along with basically a product proposition which is built into that extent.

So I think what we are trying is something which is, as you rightly said, it is complex, but it is inevitable. As I said, it cannot be copied by anyone, because once you build the servicing edge, along with the fact that you have not only traded product but your own product, which is kind of giving you margins to that extent, and you have a very strong visualization story, which you are able to give to the customer, I think it’s a lethal combination in terms of what you can offer to the customer. We have kind of gone into all the elements here. If you look at from the Beautiful Home service point of view, we have kind of executed it across about now I think to about 900 to about 1,000 customers across the country and we have done jobs, which vary from as less than as INR50,000 to INR1 lakh to as high as about INR2 crore to INR3 crore as well to that extent for various kinds of customers to that extent.

So I think we are getting a very strong hang of it in terms of what we need to kind of do to that extent, and it is done very strongly through an angle of supervision which kind of comes in to that extent because we feel that if we kind of just leave the execution to the market, it kind of really plays havoc in terms of what it does to the overall product execution piece and the delight it kind of brings to the consumer to that extent. So I think that is the model in terms of what we are looking at. And especially, I think this model is not applicable for categories like there could be a retailer, who is just selling bath taps. Now if he is selling just bath taps, it is like basically he is just selling taps to a customer to that extent. But when you come to a Beautiful Homes, you were selling the full home to the customer, along with the element of visualization, product quality and a certain element of execution, which kind of comes.

Amit Sachdeva — HSBC Holdings plc — Analyst

Sure. Thanks so much, Amit. All the best for this. Thanks a lot.

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

Thank you, sir. Our next question is from Percy was joined us on Zoom. Sir, please unmute yourself. State your name and company name and ask your question.

Percy Panthaki — IIFL Securities Limited — Analyst

Hi. This is Percy Panthaki from IIFL. Sir, This year has been splendid year for you with very high volume growth of about 30%. But looking ahead, I see, sort of two headwinds for you in terms of volume growth for FY23.One is the high base effect that you are sitting on for FY22 on a comparator Y-o-Y basis that may dampen your FY23 growth. And the second is, the significant, almost 25% kind of price increases that you have taken which in turn as you mentioned, there is some amount of price elasticity issues there. So in light of these two issues, on a Y-o-Y basis for FY23 as a whole, do you think it is possible that volume growth would slip to low-single digit or zero kind of number, because we are seeing of course, not exactly comparable category, but we are seeing many FMCG companies now post a 0% kind of volume growth even with the 8% to 10% kind of price increase. Paint of course is less penetrated and therefore you have new products, also waterproofing, putty which are growing much faster, et cetera. But just your thoughts on how we can look at volume growth for FY23 Y-o-Y?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Okay. So first of all, I think if you look at the CAGRs in terms of what we have been posting for the two and three years, you are seeing that both on volume and value, we have been able to post very, very strong numbers, even if you compare to a relatively normal year, which is ’18-’19, which is before the two COVID years to that extent. So I believe that the company has taken a very, very strong focus in terms of driving that trajectory through a range of kind of strategies in terms of what are involved in terms of going forward.

Second, if you look at the trend of Q4 over volume growth of 48% as a base, we were still able to grow at an 8% and as I said that Feb and March were high growth, double-digit volume months for us because this 8% primarily has come because January was down because of the COVID to that extent. So despite the price increases where we realize the full value in the Q4 month, we have seen still a 8% growth with Feb and March at high-digit — high double-digit volume growth to that extent. Now, which only gives the indication of the fact that you are able to kind of still propel the demand from the point of view of how customer is seeing it and we are seeing that opportunity across the category of products. So, whether it is upgradation of emulsions, whether it is from the point of view of upgradation of people to — from economy to premium, to premium to luxury as a pyramid in terms of how you want to kind of go forward, or whether it is in case of looking at transitioning people from solvent-based to water-based or from the point of view of saying that we put a regimen people putting under coats to that extent.

So I think there is a range of strategies in terms of what we are kind of taking and we find that there are certain categories like waterproofing and wood finishes which are also growing quite spectacularly overall to that extent. In addition to the fact that you are getting a lot of innovations in the market. So, I think we are pretty confident that going forward, despite the base as you rightly mentioned of 31% volume growth, that we should be definitely kind of look at, if nothing less that, something like definitely a double-digit volume growth going forward is what we are definitely endeavoring in terms of going forward. And we think that it is possible, given the range of strategies in terms of what we are taking, and the fact that this year we are saying that, if it is a COVID free year, we definitely see that there is a lot of pent-up demand over the last two years, which will aid this kind of a strategy of growth.

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

Thank you, sir. We were taking our last question now from Mr. Sujay Kamath who has joined us on Zoom. Sir, please unmute yourself. State your name and company name and ask your question.

Sujay Kamath — Millennium Management, LLC — Analyst

Yeah, hi. Thanks a lot for taking my question. My question is a little more longer-term. I’m just trying to understand the long-term growth of the industries. So on one side, if I look at organized players such as you over the last, in fact, if I go back to some of the previous presentations that you gave, it appears have been over the last three, four years you have doubled your volume growth, your volumes which is amazing on the Decorative side. But when I look at data like TiO2 consumption in the country, which is basically a mix of imports as well as domestic production, TiO2 demand in India has only grown at 7% over the last 10 years. In fact, it’s even slower over the last three, four years. So I’m just trying to connect the demand for TiO2 versus the kind of growth that organized sector is witnessing. I mean something like a 100% growth over the last four years. And in that context, how does one look at the proportion that the organized sector has on unorganized, and how does one look at long-term growth?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Okay. That was my first question. Okay. So let me just answer that straight away. So if you look at various profile of products, they have a very different level of TiO2 consumption depending on what the product is. So right from an undercoat to a top coat, which is economy to mid-end, to high end, every product will have a very, very different level of TiO2 consumption. So you can’t correlate paint growth to the TiO2 consumption straight away to that extent, because it might not be a straight correlation, but would be a complex correlation in terms of how it kind of comes by. Point one. Second is, that today TiO2 being the most costly element in paints, all companies are looking at seeing lots of measures in terms of how they can bring down the TiO2 consumption, both from the point of view of innovation in manufacturing, better dispersion technologies and also looking at a lot of alternate raw materials, which have come in the last, about three to four years, which basically kind of decrease the TiO2 consumption in the paint. So this category is what we call as OPEC fires, which basically gives the hiding to the paint and basically removes the need in terms of putting that quantum of TiO2 into the paint to that extent. So I think given these kind of overall measures which are happening and then there are various grades of TiO2, which is the chloride and the sulphates and so on so forth to that extent, which kind of gets used in different percentages, again depending on the product, which is there to that extent. So I think given this whole area, in terms of what you kind of look at, it would not be clearly co-relatable with basically the TiO2 consumption. And as I said, the larger imperative of the entire industry is that they are looking at more and more places they can replace TiO2 with better technologies, both on manufacturing as well as alternate items.

Arun Nair — Corporate Communications

That was our last question. May I now request Mr. Amit Syngle to deliver his closing remarks please.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer

Okay. I think, good. I think we tried to see that we could kind of give you some larger kind of clarification. And that is why we had a slightly longer presentation today in terms of the various aspects. I think, thank you all for coming today and really asking some incisive questions which are there. I think it’s always good to kind of see that we are able to answer those questions and give you some clarity in terms of how we are proceeding and what is really happening with the organization. So thank you once again for coming for this investor conference and how have a have a great season ahead. Thank you.