Star Cement Ltd (NSE: STARCEMENT) Q1 2026 Earnings Call dated Aug. 12, 2025
Corporate Participants:
Unidentified Speaker
Tushar Bhajanka — Deputy Managing Director
Manoj Agarwal — Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Unidentified Participant
Harsh Mittal — Analyst
Navin Sahadeo — Analyst
Shravan Shah — Analyst
Vishal Dudhwala — Analyst
Milind Raginwar — Analyst
Uttam Srimal — Analyst
Jayesh Shah — Analyst
Amit Murarka — Analyst
Presentation:
operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Star Cement Limited Q1FY26 Earnings Conference Forum hosted by MK Global. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen only mode. And there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call please signal an operator by pressing Star then zero on your touchstone four. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Harsh Mittal from MK Global. Thank you. And over to you sir.
Harsh Mittal — Analyst
Hi. Thank you, Shubham. Good afternoon. Good evening everyone. For participating in this call on behalf of MK Global I welcome you to the Q1FY26 results conference call of Star Select. From the management we have with us Tushar Bachanka ji who is the Deputy Managing director and joined by Mr. Manoj Agarwal who is the company CFO. So without any further ado I hand over the call to the management for their opening comments. Over to you sir.
Tushar Bhajanka — Deputy Managing Director
Yes. Hi. Good afternoon all. My name is Tusha Bajinka and I’m the Deputy MD of SaaSamnt. I welcome you all to the conference call of Q1 26. I’ll hand the reign to our CFO Mr. Manoj Agarwal who will go through the numbers and then we can start the Q and A. Thank you.
Manoj Agarwal — Chief Financial Officer
Thank you. Hi friends. Very good afternoon. I on behalf of stars with UK welcome you to our call for discussing our number of Q1FY26. I would like to clarify that we are discussing on the historical numbers and there is no invitation to invest. Having said that now I will just take you through the Q1 number. Starting from clinker production during the quarter ended June 25 we have produced 8.90 lakh tonne of Kilfel as against 6.36 lakhs ton same quarter last year. So far as cement production is concerned we have produced 12.31 lakh this quarter as against 11.80 lakh ton same quarter last year.
Now I will take you through the sales volume. During the quarter we have sold 12.22 lakh ton of cement and 0.74 lakh ton of pinker as against 11.54 lakh ton of cement and negligible quantity of pinker same quarter last year. This is as far as cement and winter sale is concerned. As far as geographical distribution of cement is concerned. In Northeast we have sold around 8.97 lakh ton as against 8.50 lakh ton during same quarter last year. And as far as outside Northeast is concerned we have sold 3.25 lakh ton of cement this quarter as against 3.04 lakh tonnes.
Same for the last year. In terms of main mix it is almost 15% of OPC and rest is PPG. These are the quantitative numbers of the quarter. Now I will take you through to the financials. The total revenue figure this quarter is around rupees 847crore as against 736crore same period last year. As far as EBITDA figure is concerned this quarter we have done an ebitda of around rupees 230 crore as against 118 crore last year. Profit after tax is rupees 98 crore in this quarter as against 31 crore last year. On first and EBITDA front it is 1774 during this quarter as against 1018% same quarter last year.
This is what our quarterly numbers are. Now I request all of you that if you have any query you can ask again. And I will request Hari to to moderate the query wherever it requires. Thank you.
Questions and Answers:
operator
Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the Touchstone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue you may press star and two participants are requested to use handsets while asking questions. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question comes from the line of Naveen Sahadev from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Navin Sahadeo
Yeah. Good afternoon sir. Am I audible?
operator
Yes.
Manoj Agarwal
Yeah.
Navin Sahadeo
Yes. So congratulations first of all on the very good set of numbers. In fact sequential increase in EBITDA per ton. So I just wanted to understand how much has the incentive we have booked in this quarter and how much we have received.
Manoj Agarwal
Yeah, it is around 62 crore we have booked this quarter and this is because we are going to receive. We have already filed a claim and it has already been passed within the final stage of receipt of the subsidy.
Navin Sahadeo
So. So I believe then cumulative what is the outstanding incentives which are yet to be received? We have already booked.
Manoj Agarwal
It is almost around 150 crore.
Navin Sahadeo
Understood? Understood, sir. And sir, my second question was that while we have done fairly good on the revenue front, ramp up of volumes and also the realization has essentially even excluding incentives has gone up almost 3%. Qoq. But I was seeing your variable cost has also inched up. So I’m talking more about power and fuel and raw material combined. That cost seems to have like, you know, gone up. So I was under the impression, or in general we were given the impression that Q4 onwards, because the kiln has ramp up to its full potential, the costs like, you know, will rationalize and come down.
So if you could just explain why sequentially there is a further increase in the fuel cost.
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah. So I think, you know, the only major reason I think in the variable cost is the fact that in Q1, depending on the demand, we had to keep operating and shut in the kiln. Right. Which of course has its own cost because of the demand. Right. Because the demand was not as much as it was in 2, 4. And you know, and then there was also a good stock of shrinkage. So I think because we were operating at lower capacities in Q1 compared to Q4. That is why I think the fuel cost and all of course shorter debt and that is something that we will, you know, of course work on and reduce in the future.
Navin Sahadeo
Helpful. I’ll come back in.
Manoj Agarwal
One thing, what I’d like to add because you have that. Because you are considering also the movement of stock because as far as raw metal cost and power steel, both costs have come down as compared to the last time because the volume are low. So it has come down. Then we are still steadying in the forex cost. Mainly the increased decrease in stock because the overall absorption was lower due to the. Because we are not running on the field as per the demand. So that is over. Increasingly the stock impact is there. Otherwise the production cost is more or less same as that of last time.
Navin Sahadeo
Understood, sir. Thank you so much. I’ll come back in. Q.
operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Shiravan S from Dalit Capital. Please go ahead.
Shravan Shah
Hi sir. Thank you and congratulations on good setup. Number A couple of questions. So first on the volume front. So last time we said that for this year FY26 we are looking at 5.4 to 5.5 million ton. So obviously the first quarter was good. But if we want to achieve this, then in the balance 3/4 we need to do a 17 to 20% kind of a growth. So just wanted to know whether are we sticking to our volume Guidance.
Tushar Bhajanka
The quarter one because of the early monsoon the volume had taken a bit of a hit I think in quarter two because now we don’t have as much monsoon in northeast. I think the you know the subsequent months are picking up well. So you know I think it’ll take another quarter, full quarter to actually see whether volumes will end up. But I do think that it may be realistic to get that kind of a growth.
Shravan Shah
Okay. Okay, great, great. Second, on the one of in terms of the timeline of the ongoing expansion. So 2 million ton in Silchar by this March and 2 million ton in Jira Assam by Q3FY27.
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah, so I think. Yeah. So I think the timeline is broadly the same. It will probably commission filter in Jan. Of. Of this financial year and we will be commissioning around next financial year.
Shravan Shah
Okay. Okay, got it. And until now in Q1 how much capex we have done and for full year last time we said close to 820 crore and 600 crore for FY27. So that number remains intact.
Tushar Bhajanka
Yes, I think it broadly remain intact. I don’t think.
Shravan Shah
So. In Q1 how much capex we have. Done.
Manoj Agarwal
It is about 62 crore. We are done.
Shravan Shah
Okay. Okay. Got it. Got it. And the net debt fees is how much as on March.
Manoj Agarwal
What you want to know?
Shravan Shah
Net debt as on June is how much sir?
Manoj Agarwal
Net debt is INR 320 crores
Shravan Shah
320 crore. Okay. Okay, got it. Couple of data points if you can share sir. So first is trade. Non, non trade share premium sir. Then lead distance and KKL cost for this quarter.
Manoj Agarwal
Yes. Trade sales this quarter is 81%.
Shravan Shah
Okay.
Manoj Agarwal
Okay. And leak distance is 220 kilometers.
Shravan Shah
Okay.
Manoj Agarwal
And field cost is 1.35.
Shravan Shah
1.35. Okay. So it has come down drastically from 1.54 last quarter. It is 1.35. So is it likely to remain at this level fior cost.
Manoj Agarwal
More or less. We are hopeful that it will continue like that. Maybe this.
Shravan Shah
Okay. Okay. And the premium share for this quarter was how much.
Manoj Agarwal
Premium sale was 12%. It is 12.2. 12%.
Shravan Shah
Okay. 12.2%. And, and the incentive for full year would be the same. Last time what we said. 220. 250 crores for FY26.
Manoj Agarwal
Yes, yes, yes. Same.
Shravan Shah
Okay. Okay. And AAC block how much revenue and EBITDA now because it has started how much we can see so AC and construction chemical put together.
Tushar Bhajanka
So right now you know the AC block plant that we set up were of about 20,000 cbm a month. We have Already started operating the plant at about 40% capacity, commissioning just one and a half months back. So I think, you know, for the first year I don’t see a very significant impact coming from there. But I think we’ll be able to ramp it up in, in a year’s time for us to start getting at the customer.
Shravan Shah
But at revenue level, how one can look at for this year and next year, if we ramp up next year.
Tushar Bhajanka
I think about this year we should not expect more than 70, 80 crores of revenue coming from there.
Shravan Shah
And next year it will ramp up too.
Tushar Bhajanka
Next year it may ramp up to 20, 30.
Shravan Shah
Okay. Okay. Okay, great. Thank you. And all the best.
operator
Thank you. Before we take the next question, we would like to remind participants you may press star on one to ask a question. The next question comes from the line of Vishal Dodwala from Srinitra as a manager. Please go ahead.
Vishal Dudhwala
Thank you for the opportunity. Sir, like I have couple of questions. So first question. What was the clinker to cement ratio in Q1 and what percentage of your. Thermal energy in Q1 came from alternative fuel?
Manoj Agarwal
You want to interpret that?
Tushar Bhajanka
Hello. Yeah, can you repeat a question?
Vishal Dudhwala
In Q1 and percentage and what percentage of your thermal energy in Q1 came from alternative fuels versus coal?
Manoj Agarwal
Yeah, okay. It is 1.4 coal. The cement is 1.44.
Tushar Bhajanka
And your portion also the, you know, the cement, the factor you know was 1.44 is 1.44.
Vishal Dudhwala
Clear.
Tushar Bhajanka
Because there’s also another way of measuring or suggesting thinker factor. So. So it’s 1.44. And besides that, the fuel cost in the overall fuel mix, 18% was substituted to non conventional sources of fuel.
Vishal Dudhwala
Okay. And the second one is like can you give your consolidated plate receivable days and inventory days at as of 30 June 25th?
Manoj Agarwal
Just speak loudly. What can you ask for?
Vishal Dudhwala
Should I repeat the question?
Manoj Agarwal
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Vishal Dudhwala
So can you give your consolidated trade receivable days and inventory days as of 30th June 25th?
Manoj Agarwal
Serviceable is around 183 cr. 183 pr. Hello.
operator
Visal. Sir. Yes.
Vishal Dudhwala
Yeah, yeah, yeah. What your number?
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah, so I, I think let’s do one thing on this question. We’ll get back to you. We don’t have it in days. We have it in three hours. I think you have to divide by the res. Okay.
Vishal Dudhwala
Of trade receivable and inventory.
Manoj Agarwal
Is 183crore. And inventory is 492cr.
Vishal Dudhwala
That’s a follow up question like are. You seeing any conversion pressure during the year or any working capital?
Tushar Bhajanka
No, we not.
Vishal Dudhwala
Okay, okay. Got your point. Thank you.
operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Milind S. Raginwar from Bob Capital Markets Ltd. Please go ahead.
Milind Raginwar
Thank you sir for this opportunity. Just can confirmation. The net Debt number is 3.2 billion.
Manoj Agarwal
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Milind Raginwar
Was this 2.3 billion in the fourth quarter?
Manoj Agarwal
No, no, it was in the March quarter also it was there around 300.
Milind Raginwar
Okay. And so can you just please share the the number for the fuel breakup? That is the. The fuel that comes from FSA from spot and advanced fuel.
Manoj Agarwal
79% from FSA.
Milind Raginwar
79.
Manoj Agarwal
And it’s from. And 18% attracted from PFR. And 3% is the almost other pole that option goal.
Milind Raginwar
Okay. Okay. And. And regarding our grinding units in terms of clearances, where should we be?
Tushar Bhajanka
So for censor we have already started the construction. We’ve got on all the permissions and for any minute we have selected land. We buying the land and we will then apply for a EC in a month’s time and we should be through the ECMC four months.
Milind Raginwar
Okay. So that means that fourth quarter FY27. Is still debatable, right?
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah, I think for Gerard it is still achievable. And fourth quarter for 24th century is definitely happening.
Milind Raginwar
Right. And Manusa, can you please. I just missed that number of northeast and east breakup. Can you please, can you please share that again?
Manoj Agarwal
Just a moment. Is 73% and 27% outside India.
Milind Raginwar
Okay. Okay. Yeah. Thank you sir. That is a comment.
operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Uttar Kumar Srimal from Access Security Connected. Please go ahead.
Uttam Srimal
Yeah. Good afternoon sir. Congratulations on really good sector for our members. My question pertains to rice and expansion. Last time you spoke about expanding in Rajasthan. So any update on the thing?
Manoj Agarwal
Yeah. So I think we have bought some minds in NGO and we’re also participating in auction in jet and mail. Right. So I think we should have some news in a week’s time regarding how it went and we also make it public. So I think we are definitely looking for Rajasthan as a potential market expand. Yes.
Uttam Srimal
And so how much capex we will do for this for three?
Tushar Bhajanka
I think right now we’re trying to just secure a mine. But if you are able to secure a mine then we plan to do a capex of. You know we plan to put up about 3 million ton finger plant along with 4 million ton grinding in Rajasthan which would basically be about 2400 to 2500 crores capex overall.
Uttam Srimal
Okay. How is the pricing right now compared to quarter 1? Fi 26 basic prices in both northeast and east region.
Tushar Bhajanka
So compared to quarter one, I think the prices right now are still maintaining. They’ve not fallen by as much or anything. So I think we should not see a very big dip in the price due to off season.
Uttam Srimal
Okay. Since prices have improved. So siligry unit might also be producing more cement compared to what AI was doing earlier. So how do you see slavery rates. Capacity creation this year because it improved compared to last year.
Tushar Bhajanka
So definitely we are pushing more outside northeast, you know, to West Bengal and Bihar markets because the prices have improved. So I think so we’ll see in the quarter two results that I think that has really helped us in achieving higher volume.
Uttam Srimal
Okay. And now coming to the this premium cement sale, this is around 12% and. Last quarter also it was around 12%. So it has remained on the same level. So what will what we are doing to increase the sale of premium cement?
Tushar Bhajanka
So I mean, you know, if you compare it to a year back, we have definitely improved it from 6, 7% to 12% and I think we have taken target to be more aggressive, to be pushing up even sales more. So we’ve taken a target to make it reach about 18% by end of the year.
Uttam Srimal
Okay. Okay. That’s all from my side. I wish you all the best.
Manoj Agarwal
Okay, thank you.
operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jahesha from OHM Portfolio Equity Research. Please go ahead.
Jayesh Shah
Hi, thanks for the opportunity. I just had one question on these incentives and subsidies. There are some media reports of certain state government, including West Bengal looking to. Withdraw incentives and subsidies. So where are we on this and how long does it take to collect the subsidy amount once you know, you are digital?
Tushar Bhajanka
So. Good question. So we, you know, unlike states, other states that you mentioned, right. I don’t think Sam has a history of taking away the subsidies. Right. Because we have completed all our documentation. We have gotten an eligibility certificate from the government of San which is also approved by the gsa, you know, by the GST department, the finance department of the state. So you know, it’s, it’s more of a binding, you know, agreement that one has with the state. Right. And then we’ve already filed for, you know, getting the subsidy for the last year that we had booked about 150 crores.
And I think that should be with us before the quarter two ends. So we’ll see that whatever we are booking in terms of Subsidy in our books is also received in our cash flows, you know, every quarter now.
Jayesh Shah
Okay, so are there really the timetable of disbursement as per whatever that has been promised to you?
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah, so basically there’s a timetable as such, but what normally happens is that right now there’s a backlog. Right. Because we were filing all our documents and all. So there’s a backlog of last year as well, which we’re supposed to get, which I think we’ll get the entire 150 or major part of that 150 crores in quarter two. End by quarter two. End. So that will finish the backlog till quarter one. Right. And then we will, for each subsequent quarter that passes, we should be able to get the subsidy amount by end of the next quarter.
So support. The subsidy amount for quarter two will be accrued to us and received by us in quarter by end of quarter three. That, that is how normally it should follow. And this is how we’ve seen the past also that it has followed. So the subsidy is not the main amount which is, you know, which is just showing in the books and never, never received by the company. So in our case it’s never happened like that and we hope to maintain this. Right.
Jayesh Shah
Okay, that’s very comforting, thank you. And my second question is given the state that Ultratech has in your company, which they. Are there any, is there any business relationship, trade arrangements or do you benefit with due to Ultra taking stage in your company in terms of dealer distribution, logistics?
Tushar Bhajanka
So Ultratech definitely bought a stake in the company, you know, and for that that was a non, you know, I think it was just an investment that they made from a long term perspective, I guess. But I don’t think that affects our business negatively or positively either way. Right. There’s both the companies operating at arm length. There’s no synergy that we are benefiting from right now.
Jayesh Shah
Okay, thank you. And lastly in terms of demand outlook for Assam, given you know, all these political uncertainties and media articles that we keep hearing, what is your outlook on overall demand scenario in Assam and how much you spend exactly in Assam?
Tushar Bhajanka
So you know, approximately about. Sorry,
Jayesh Shah
Yeah, Assam and Bega.
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah. So if I talk about Northeast overall, then I think just a second. In Northeast overall we sell almost. You. Know, about 75% of our sales is happening in Northeast right now. Right. And I think the market growth in Assam and other states in Northeast are going to be good only because there’s just so much more to grow. Right. You can also see in the numbers that we normally forecast. Right. I mean, the kind. The way our, like, turnover has grown the last four, five years. I don’t think the, you know, that kind of growth has been seen in. Outside. Outside Northeast. Right. So definitely there’s more potential to go. And there are also a lot of hybrid projects which are coming up.
There’s also a lot of infrastructure projects which are coming up. And I think the demand will be basically led by that.
Jayesh Shah
Thank you very much.
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah, thank you.
operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of harsh. Matt, please go ahead.
Harsh Mittal
Hi. Thank you, Shubham. So I have two questions. So, as per media articles, there has been trial runs conducted for the first freight train to Nagaland and Tripura a quarter ago. Roughly a quarter ago. So how do you see this as a benefit to Star Cement in terms of capturing higher market share? Market share in these states or reduced freight cost? So that would be my first question, sir.
Tushar Bhajanka
Sorry, could you. Could you please repeat the question?
Harsh Mittal
So my question being that Northeast Frontier Railway, they have started trial runs for their first freight train. Cement cargo. Cement Cargo. Freight trains to be transported to the states of Nagaland and Tripura roughly a quarter ago. So how do you see this as a benefit to start cement in terms of higher market share or reduced freight cost?
Tushar Bhajanka
I think it can give an advantage, you know, in terms of serviceability. Right. In terms of the freight, it also poses a risk because now cement players from outside can also send the cement to Nagaland directly. Right. So the rain. So it has, it has both elements of like benefit and disadvantage. But definitely, you know, I have not worked out the math of how, how cheaper it would make it if we send it through rail now. But we’ll definitely do that working. I think in business it will help us serve it better, servers better.
Manoj Agarwal
Second question being, as per your market intelligence, besides Star Cement and Dynamics, what is the tentative expected supply which we are going to see in the next four, five years?
Tushar Bhajanka
I think in the next three, four years, I do not expect any other plan to come, though, of course, major cement company in, in India are definitely looking at this market now. Right. They may be also talking in their own investor calls. I think for four years I do not see any of the capacity is really coming in. So for four years I do think that this market would broadly be dominated by two players. And probably there is a chance that, you know, third one probably comes in three, four years. And then, you know, we.
It’s very hard to predict, but of course, you know, then we’ll see how the scenario changes. But I think the market will become big enough for the market to even absorb a third pair in like four, five years time. I don’t think that should be a challenge. Right. Because the market is also.
Harsh Mittal
So what is the current market size for Northeast?
Tushar Bhajanka
About 14 million rupees of current market size.
Harsh Mittal
And, and the expected growth rate you expect for the next three, four years. CAGR any guidance on that market growth?
Tushar Bhajanka
I it’s anyone guess but I think it should be about 10%.
Harsh Mittal
Sure sir, sure. Okay, so we can take the next question.
operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Naveen Sahadev from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Navin Sahadeo
Hello, Am I audible? Hello. Right, thank you for the repeat opportunity. So two follow up questions if you could like you know please talk about the efficiency because green power share I think in the previous quarter was around 20% but the target is to take it to almost 55% by 26 itself. So where are we in terms of green power efficiency or other initiatives as well be it the fsa, coal or any other thing that can help us reduce cost in the coming quarters.
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah, so no, thank you so much. And you know the SSA cost of course, you know the SSAs we have tied up for the long run. If you see that 78% of our requirement of fuel was met through SSA definitely we’re doing a decent job at managing our cost of fuel. Right. And I do think that quarter one was slightly better in terms of fuel cost kcal, you know, rupees per kilo calories then quarter four and it was also better than last year, same quarter. So we’ve definitely pulled up our socks on the fuel cost and it’s reducing on the green energy.
We are you know currently hired ey to make entire plan of how we can substitute more of a power requirement to green energy. So we on that plan we are putting up about 40 megawatts of solar in Assam itself that will help us serve the Guwahati units, you know and we are also probably going to draw some power to Meghalay from that solar farm. And then we’re also looking at wind options, you know not in Assam of course, but in other states that we can kind of get, you know, a captive wind farm that we can probably use to provide power to us.
So I think in a month’s time we’ll have a clear roadmap. Of course some of the roadmap we’ve already started implementing with regards to solar but then you know, the wind and other sources of renewable energy we are tapping will only be clear after the entire project is done. So I think by next investor call, you’ll have a clear roadmap of how we’re reaching 55 to 60%.
Navin Sahadeo
And the PPA we had signed last year with J Capital Green Energy stage, right, that that starts contributing by end of this fiscal. Is that correct?
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah, that should start contributing by end of fiscal year though there was some delay of three, four months in that. But we are just talking to them as well as to how we can bind them to kind of give us as soon as possible. We’re also evaluating other options to that agreement in case we want to have our own captive generation because that in the long run reduces your fixed cost. Because, you know, when you tie up with GSW or any others, you know, developer like that, you know, you’re buying power at a fixed cost with maybe 3.5 or 3.6, whatever the rate you need to say.
Right. But that 3.5, 3.6 becomes your base cost. Right. Whereas if you put up your own plants, then your base cost is only the cost of the onn of the plant. Right. Or solar or lead. So your variable cost for falls to 0.6, 0.7. So I think in the long run it makes much more sense for them companies that they want to be competitive to kind of put up their own plants because they effectively reduce the variable cost by three more rupees. Right?
Navin Sahadeo
Yeah, that’s very, very helpful. And sir, my last question was on our preparedness for pouring into Rajasthan. So you said that some, of course we have more like, you know, participated in some more options and maybe in a couple of weeks there will be a formal update on the, on the outcome of the same. But what I wanted to broadly understand is typically how far are we in terms of actually having a plant in place? Will it be, will you say it is three years away? Will you say it is four years away? How should one look at 4A.
Tushar Bhajanka
I think it’s about three, three and a half years away. You know, I think that is the timeline because for us to acquire mine and land and then put up a plant will take us three years. Right. So in three years time, unless we go for acquisition. Right. Which I don’t think will be available in Rajasthan, but probably in areas of south. You know, I don’t think there’s any other way but to spend three years and put up a plan.
Navin Sahadeo
Correct, that’s, that’s very clear and helpful. Thank you so much.
Tushar Bhajanka
Thank you.
operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of silver 1s from Dalat Capital, please.
Shravan Shah
Just continuing this part. So currently the 4 million ton that we will be adding, ongoing expansion. So we will be reaching close to 11.7 odd million ton. And this Rajasthan would be a maybe a four, four and a half million ton in terms of cement level. So around 69 odd million ton. But we target to reach a 20 million ton by FY30. So where else we will be, will it be in the Northeast? Maybe a two, three years down the line we can add because we already got more mines there.
Tushar Bhajanka
So we honestly evaluating, because I think that was just, you know, the 20 million was just the operational target of where we think our long term vision. But in the short run we’ll of course have to find opportunities. Right? So I don’t think I have a clear answer. We are evaluating, you know, to put up a plant of 2 million tons in Bihar for example. Right. Because our Saliguri plant, I expect in the next few years we’ll reach fuller utilization of the plant. So we will have to put another genuine unit for us to grow in outside Northeast.
Right. So we may put up a plant in Bihar. It looks like a favorable place with good thermal plants around it with the market which is growing of course, competitive, but growing. So you know, so we do think that, you know, the 3,4 million extra capacity that we want to build up, we’re evaluating it, you know, which area it should be. And I think we’ll have an answer in a quarter or two, you know, because I don’t think it’s very easy for us to forecast the entire five years from now. But I think definitely we are working on to see more opportunities so that we can, you know, probably ramp up to the 20 million capacity as soon as possible.
Shravan Shah
Okay, got it. But in whatever way we will, whether we’ll reach to 18 million ton or a 20 million ton. But in terms of the level, what’s in our mind that we will not. Obviously right now we are at much, much comfortable level. Only 300 around kind of a net debt. So at what till what level are we comfortable to to keep on increasing?
Tushar Bhajanka
That honestly depends on the EBITDA that we achieve. Right. And the cash flow that we get. So I do assume that, you know, we should be able to start touching levels of 850 to 900 crores of EBITDA from this year onwards. Right. And probably do better next year. So if that is the case, then I do think that we should be comfortable with about 1500 crores of debt. You know, in the worst case situation. Worst case scenario. Right. So. So I think that is something that depending on how our cash flows are seeming in the next year and this year and next year we should be able to ramp up our comfort of taking debt to about 1500 crores at max. Right. Which I think is. It’s in line with other companies. Right. It’s almost 1.5 times the debt to EBITDA ratio is 1.5 times which is fine either.
Shravan Shah
True. No, no, that is fine. But what, what? Because currently obviously we are having a 1700 rupees plus EBITDA pattern and hopefully if you can help us given the as you are mentioning the prices are stable and maybe we can start seeing some cost benefit also. So this kind of a run rate likely to be maintained that is fourth part and second is once we have a Rajasthan obviously that we will not be having a maybe a half of the profitability. What right now we are enjoying. So, so, so that also we, we are watchful. Despite that fact, we should not be kind of a worst case 1500 crore kind of a date is manageable.
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah, no, that’s what we always thought that you know, if the cash flow in the next three, four years and northeast is stable and even if you have a 1500 crore debt which you of course will start reducing as soon as your plans commission then I don’t think it’s bad. And also you know the company will of course think of doing a QIP as well. Right. If we do go in Rajasthan and do all those things. So I think from that perspective also we’ll definitely maintain our debt levels in control because as a company we don’t like to pay too much with debt as it’s clear the history. Right.
Shravan Shah
Got it, got it. Understood. And then now onwards from Q2 the current Opex pattern. So that’s the way what we we calculate in terms of revenue minus EBITDA, whatever the cost divided by volume. So that number should not be rising rather it should be seeing one. One should start saying given the volume optic will be there so we should start seeing the declining trend there. And if the prices remain stable then the this kind of EBITDA for 1700 is, is a manageable at least for next couple of quarters.
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah, no, I, I do think, yeah, I think that’s, that’s true. But it also happens that you know every, every you know, quarter is a bit different in terms of volume. Right. So if I compare my OPEX quarter cost compared to last year, same quarter Q2, then it will definitely be lower. If I Compare it to Q4 where the volumes are very high then my fixed costs are divided by a higher volume. Right. So I think then it’s very hard to like beat Q4 because the volumes were higher. So I think you know it should be fair for variable cost to pass that statement but not overall cost.
Shravan Shah
Okay, got it. And, and if you can help us currently trade, non trade price gap in northeast and east would be how much?
Tushar Bhajanka
I think it’s about 60 rupees to 70 rupees.
Shravan Shah
In Northeast?
Tushar Bhajanka
Yes, in the northeast.
Shravan Shah
And any in east?
Tushar Bhajanka
In east if you actually don’t sell that much on non trade. So I don’t think we will be able to give a good benchmark.
Shravan Shah
Okay, okay, okay, got it, got it. Thank you sir. And then yeah, lastly this, this filter, how much already we have done the Capex and what is balance for filter because that is going to start by this January, February.
Tushar Bhajanka
So in culture till till date we have done only about 105 crores. Right. Because a lot of payment will now start going in quarter two and quarter three. Right. So but our timeline is quite certain that by quarter four we should be able to commission and there is some aspects of the plant which may be getting commissioned after quarter four, you know, but so we may see that even after commissioning the plan there are some Capexes which are ongoing. Yeah, if that answers the question.
operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Amit Muraka from X Capital. Please go ahead.
Shravan Shah
Yeah, good afternoon.
Manoj Agarwal
Just on the northeastern market like we have been hearing about other companies also.
Shravan Shah
Wanting to set up capacity.
Manoj Agarwal
Latest being JK Lakshmi having won some limestone leases over there and they’re talking about starting a plant in roughly two years time. So do you see like competitive intensity going up like over the next two.
Tushar Bhajanka
Or three years as these new players enter the market?
Shravan Shah
Like it’s usually been seen as a.
Tushar Bhajanka
Dwarfly market but Ultratech wants to get.
Manoj Agarwal
Into the market and now even taking the market. So what’s your thought or view on that?
Tushar Bhajanka
I think for anyone who is coming fresh to Northeast it will take at least 3, 4 years to put up a plant. And you know, and I do think that of course, you know, as the market becomes bigger people will come in and they will like to get a share of the market. So it’s natural. But I do not think that Northeast has that kind of space where you can accommodate a lot of people. So people when they’re doing their working after like a polar competitor comes in, they’ll have to really question that, you know, for the fourth one or the fifth one is the market big enough for.
To absorb the capacity? Right. So I think, I do think that in four years that probably the competitive landscape will be more aggressive. Right. But then I do think it will settle down. Right. Because I don’t think people just keep on entering Northeast. Right. There’s a limit to it because there’s only a very small market that they can address.
Manoj Agarwal
Yeah.
Manoj Agarwal
But as people enter, won’t it spoil, let’s say the pricing? Because Northeast has been having really strong and consistently good pricing margin.
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah, I think like it may spoil it for a year, it may spoil it for two. But I think eventually, you know, everything settles down I guess in some ways.
Manoj Agarwal
And generally like is my understanding right that the market is operating at like 65 to 70 capacity utilization right now after you expanded. And then even Darnia is going to kind of get that linker commission soon enough.
Tushar Bhajanka
So yeah, I think it is operating at about 70, 65, 70 utilization.
Manoj Agarwal
What will be the size of the market? If you can just let us know.
Tushar Bhajanka
In terms of. It’s about 14 million tons.
Shravan Shah
14 million.
Manoj Agarwal
Sure. And you would be having what 25 market share?
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah. So we have about 2728 market share.
Manoj Agarwal
And Dalmia would be having a similar number.
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah, like something, something a little bit lesser than us.
Manoj Agarwal
Sure, sure. Thank you so much. Yeah, that’s all for my side.
operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Naveen Sadeb from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Manoj Agarwal
Yeah, thank you for the repeat opportunity. I just had one follow up. The incentives we booked in Q1 was 62 crore and it was almost 7576 crore in Q4. So just wanted to know is it fair to assume that this year as a whole we will receive in upwards of let’s say 250crore. Of course assuming volume momentum stays intact. But I believe with your ramp up of trail overall it should. So is it fair to assume that incentives can continue at this run rate of 475 rupees per ton or 500 rupees per ton for the full year or if that could be a little stretched?
Tushar Bhajanka
Yeah, I think it’s fair to assume that you know we probably should be able to get incentive about 230 to 250 crores.
Manoj Agarwal
Very, very helpful. Thank you. Thank you so much. Thank you so much.
Tushar Bhajanka
Thank you.
operator
Thank you. The last question for the day comes from the line of Harsh Mithan. Please go ahead.
Manoj Agarwal
Thank you. So my question is what would be the tentative capacity for the Rajasthan on the drawing board, if any.
Tushar Bhajanka
Centers of capacity.
Manoj Agarwal
What have you planned the expansion size?
Tushar Bhajanka
So I think it will be wherever we put up a plan, it will be about 3 million tons of sinker and about 4 million tons of rent.
Manoj Agarwal
Right. And the tentative budget for the same.
Tushar Bhajanka
So the budget will be about 2, 400 crores. Yeah, I think we’ve already answered this question.
Manoj Agarwal
Right, right. Sure. Thank you. Thank you, sir.
operator
Thank you. As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to Mr. Tushar Bhajanga for closing comments. Thank you. And over to you, sir.
Tushar Bhajanka
Thank you so much everyone for your question. And you know, if anyone has any remaining questions, they can always email us and we’re happy to answer those questions. And yeah, and if there’s any further interest, you know, you can get in touch with the cfo. And if you want to visit the grant, we’re happy to organize something. So thank you so much.
operator
Thank you. On behalf of MK Global. That concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. And you may now disconnect your line. Thank you.
Tushar Bhajanka
Thank you.