Senores Pharmaceuticals Ltd (NSE: SENORES) Q1 2026 Earnings Call dated Jul. 24, 2025
Corporate Participants:
Swapnil Shah — Promoter and Managing Director
Deval Shah — Whole-Time Director and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Pranav Chawla — Analyst
Unidentified Participant
Rudraksh Raheja — Analyst
Pranav Gandhi — Analyst
Rajesh Kothari — Analyst
Yash Shah — Analyst
Thomas Abraham — Analyst
Naitik Mohata — Analyst
Darshil Jhaveri — Analyst
Vivek Gautam — Analyst
Umesh Matkar — Analyst
Mitesh Mehta — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Cenorus Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Q1FY26 earnings conference call hosted by Ambit Capital Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen only mode and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing Star then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. Please note that this conference may contain forward looking statements about the company which are based on beliefs, opinions and expectations of the company on the date of this call. These statements are not the guarantees of future performance and involve risk and uncertainties that are difficult to predict.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Pranav Chawla from Ambit Capital. Thank you. And over to you sir.
Pranav Chawla — Analyst
Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of Ambit Capital, I, Pranav Chawda, thank the management of Fermaris Pharma for providing us this opportunity to host the 1Q FY26 earnings call today. On the call we have the following members from the management. Mr. Swapnil Shah, Managing Director, Mr. Sanjay Majmudar, Chairman Mr. Dhawal Shah SA cfo. I now hand over the call to Mr. Swapnil Shah to walk us through the quarter. Thank you all. Over to you, sir.
Swapnil Shah — Promoter and Managing Director
Thank you. Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on Ceneros Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Q1FY26 earnings conference call. Along with me on the call we have our chairman, Mr. Sanjay Mahmoud, our CFO, Mr. Deval Shah, and our SGA team, our Investor Relations partner. We have uploaded our results, press release and investor presentation on the stock exchanges and company’s website. I hope everybody had an opportunity to go through the same Continuing on our established strategies, we have delivered a very healthy performance across segments. In Q1FY26, our consolidated revenue for Q1FY26 grew by 72%. Our EBITDA and PET grew by 60 and 95% respectively on yoy basis. We remain confident of delivering 50% growth in top line and about 100% growth in PAT for FY26 over FY25.
Our current business is undergoing a structured advancement which will provide better market visibility and support the growth momentum for us over the medium to long term. Speaking of our segmental performance, our revenue from regulated markets grew about 69% in Q1FY26 on yoy basis, reflecting the strong resilience of our product and the market we serve. The growth was also aided by the contribution of our CDM or CMO segment. This quarter. On a QOQ basis, revenue has grown by 40%. In addition to our in house product development, acquisition of ands from Dr. Reddish, Breckenridge and VOCAD have significantly strengthened our pipeline.
These acquired products will be launched in a phased manner over the next few quarters. Notably, the growth achieved in this quarter does not include any revenue contribution from the acquired portfolio. Revenue from this asset is expected to start contributing from the second half of current financial year with the full impact becoming visible from FY27 and onwards. In Q1 2026, we received USFD approval for four products, taking our portfolio of approved product to about 70 as of end of this quarter. We also commercially launched two new products bringing our total commercialized portfolio of 24 ENDA products as of June 30, 2025. For FY26, we plan to launch approximately about 15 to 16 ANDA products with the majority scheduled for rollout in the second half of this year. In the regulated markets, a large part of our product portfolio has potential to cater to government contracts and the control substance category. Unlike many of our competitors, we largely focus on the retail side of the business. Our ability to supply to the government. Channel sets us apart. This excess provides us with stable and consistent demand for our products supported by long term contracts with fixed pricing structures. As a result, we face comparatively lower risk of price erosion and are able to build more predictable and sustainable revenue streams giving us a clear competitive advantage in the market space. Speaking on the tariff situation, it is very difficult to predict the course of action that US Government will take. Irrespective of what the outcome is. We believe Semoraz is well positioned to remain largely insulated from any tariff related developments. Our entire manufacturing is done locally in the US as we speak. In terms of APIs, we procure very small quantities from China and some quantities from Europe. In case of any escalation of tariffs for this region, the impact on our business would be Coming to our CDMO CMO segment. We are witnessing a steady traction of scaling up our operations on both our CDMO CMO segment. We have added about 5 new products in CDMO CMO segment. In Q1FY26 our portfolio now extends at about 27 products. We have more than 50 products in pipeline as of June 2025. Again, the experience in our CDMO CMO segment comes from our ability our ability to manufacture locally, our end to end solution to our partners from regulatory to manufacturing and then post approval regulatory support develop and manufacture control substance. The DE&DA certifications for our manufacturing facility in the US gives us a considerable advantage over competitors. All in all, the regulatory market business which is our largest vertical continues to show consistent growth driven by portfolio expansion and increasing market penetration. Our existing portfolio in the pipeline in the one product segment coupled with our contracts in N on CDM or CMO segment gives us a good visibility for the year ahead in the regulated markets. Also, the upcoming facility expansion in the U.S. will provide an additional growth driver. We expect the third manufacturing line in the U.S. to be operational by Q3 FY26 and the fourth line towards the end of financial year 2026. This expansion will take the oversold capacity at our U.S. manufacturing plant from 1.2 billion units to almost 2 billion units. After the completion of four lines, we would set up our stabile manufacturing in the US Coming to the emerging market business, we have received about 23 new product approval during this quarter, taking our total Product approval to 308 as of 30 June 2025. We have for the 719 products under registration. We anticipate that the ongoing shift in our product portfolio towards more niche molecules combined with our evolving go to market strategies. Result in a significant improvement in realization. This in turn is expected to drive strong growth and enhance the overall profitability of our emerging market business. We have seen the result of this initiative in Q1 our realization. Our realization has increased from 1.2 to 1.3 per unit last year to almost 1.8 per unit today. With the revenue growth of almost 32% on a YOY basis, the emerging market business is showing promising signs both in terms of growth as well as profitability. We’ll continue to focus on a niche segment of the product along with expanding its presence in mid tier markets. We are also continuously working on streamlining our direct models in energy markets. That said, we do not anticipate any significant changes to our consolidated revenue mix on a steady state annualized basis, regulated market are expected to continue contributing around 60 to 70% of total revenue with emerging markets continue accounting for approximately about 30%. Margins may vary slightly from quarter on quarter basis depending upon the relative contribution of regulated and emerging markets business. However, with the expected improvement in profitability from emerging market, we foresee our consolidated EBITDA stabilizing it around 15 to 70% range on a sustainable annualized basis. Looking ahead, our backward integration strategy will play a critical role in strengthening our supply chain, driving sustainable growth across both our business segments. Operations at our recently commissioned API facility in Chatra are progressing as planned with a capacity of approximately 100 to 150 metric tons per year. This statute is significantly larger than our first API in Naruda that we have. We are currently in the process of filing for DMF for FDA approval for the new API facility. Once approved, it will be a key milestone and further bolster the regulated market business. In the initial phase of operations we intend to focus on manufacturing APIs, but the cost advantage of in house production over external sourcing is substantial. This strategic approach will not only enhance our margin but also improve supply chain reliability in long term competitiveness in the business. On India branded generics business, the injectable segment has gained significant momentum in recent months. Our monthly revenue run rate has nearly doubled reaching to almost two and a half crores. We have been increasing our salesforce in the branded generic segment. Expect to be present time India by end of FY26. The branded generics business is expected to surpass revenue of 50 crores in FY26 also. We are happy to report that we have achieved positive operating cash flow in Q1 FY26. Our cash flow trajectory has shown consistent improvement as a. Confident in our ability to sustain and build on this momentum going forward. Our performance from the previous quarter to this quarter clearly shows a positive trend and we expect to continue improving it as we Progress deeper into FY26. Review of our product launch timeline. The second half of the year will be bigger than the first half year in terms of all business metrics. We have been delivering our commitment in terms of income and profitability reinforcing the strength of our strategy and execution. Our focus remains firmly on established business model across both regulated as well as semi rig energy markets. We believe there is a long and promising growth Runway ahead of for Simarus. We are all positioned to capitalize on these opportunities backed by deep industry expertise and years of experience. We are confident in our ability to drive sustained profitable growth going forward. With that, I would now like to hand over the call to Mr. Devosha Achiyapo to take you through the financial highlights for this quarter. Thank you and over to you Devo Bhai.
Deval Shah — Whole-Time Director and Chief Financial Officer
Thank you Sapnal. A warm welcome to everyone on our Q1SR cardigip earning call. I will just take you through our financial and operational performance for the quarter. Our consolidated income for the quarter stood at 138 crores rupees 138 crores reflecting a strong growth of 72% on ROI basis. This was driven largely by the regulated market business where there was little contribution from CDM and CMOS segment in the same quarter. Last year on QOQ basis also contributed Revenue has grown by 15%. EBITDA for Q1FY26 crude at 34 crores reflecting a growth of 60% on royal basis. EBITDA margin came in at 24.8% dropping by around 170bps on Y O Y basis. However on sequential basis our margin has improved by around360bps. We request everyone to look at our business on an annualized basis since there can be fluctuations in the quarterly trend on account of product mix that gets averaged out on an annual basis. On an annual basis we see the company in a stable EBITDA margin of 25 to 26 percentage in Q1FY26. There is some impact on EBITDA on Y basis due to increase in the employee cost and other expenses of the API unit which has to give in the revenue now which will give us the revenue in. Current second half profit after tax for the quarter grew by 95% YoY and came to rupees 21 crores. During the quarter we had a positive operating cash flow of around 11 crores. Coming to our segment wise performance, revenue from regulated markets 290 crores grew in by a robust 69% YY and 40% GFU. EBITDA margin in the regulated market stood at 35.5%. Revenue from emerging market grew by 32% YOY as 2.29 crores EBITDA margin the emerging market stood at a stagnant 76%. However, the domestic branded generic business revenue grew to 8 crores growing by more than 4x on YOY basis. To summarize, we have a healthy performance across segments in the quarter and we are well positioned to sustain this momentum over the full year. We are confident of delivering sustained profitable growth going forward with this. I would now like to open the floor for questions.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may please press CHAR and one on the touchdown telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue you may press star and do. Participants are requested to use answers while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we’ll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Kerendi from table 3 cap. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Thank you sir. Thank you for the opportunity to ask question. Fantastic results. Many, many congratulations sir. I had a more strategic question than the details of the numbers per se in your presentation. We did call about control substances. If you could just give a bird’s eye view of how this control substances business actually works in the us Is it tender based? Is it retail? Is it government driven? And given that this is only DA approved facility, I’m assuming it’s scheduled to drugs only. From a control substance perspective, what are the typical margins? Again, I’m not looking for exact numbers. I’m looking sometimes in the range. Right. So 20 to 25% or 35 to 40%. That’s the range that I’m looking at. If you could just explain the mechanics of the control substance and businesses in terms of revenue profile, margin profile and how this business actually works. It will be really helpful for us to understand as investors.
Swapnil Shah
Yes, thank you. So I would just give you a perspective. Probably would be difficult to give you as a segment revenue and then profitability on that particular segment for that. The control substance is quota driven, right. So dea, that’s a department that US government runs, hands out the quota to each approved player for that particular product. And usually it is distributed equally among all the approved players that’s out there. So it’s a quota driven from the infrastructure standpoint, we need to have a page involved and all the systems that is required on our DA side we get audited very regularly from DEA since we are handling those sensitive substances for our manufacturing. So that’s overall perspective on the control substance as we speak.
Deval Shah
And just to add most of our customers, so we don’t do direct tendering, but it is either as a part of the cmo, CDMO or our third party marketing partner who are handling this customers.
Unidentified Participant
Got it, sir, Got it. And sir, again, I’m noticing for like, if you can just give a broad margin profile, sir, is it like 25 to 30, 35 to 40? Again, I’m not looking for exact numbers and this would be for a broader range.
Swapnil Shah
See, as a matter of clarity and strategy, we generally would want to talk only of a consolidated regulated market margin where we have this year reported about 35, 36%. So you know, it’s a mix of various products and multiple business segments. Let’s take it as US as a whole. That would be better.
Unidentified Participant
I mean, will it be in line with you? I’m just worried that margin diluted, sir. That’s why I’m asking this question.
Swapnil Shah
No, no. I mean, so margin dilution because of control substance, we don’t see any possibility. In fact, not many companies have that kind of capability to handle control substances. Plus we also do R and D. Right. So at the CDNO component of D, which is development, we do extensive development of controlled substance in the US because we have a full operational R and D lab setup at our facility in U.S. so you know, that gives us an edge and that’s how we are able to do lot of those transactions both on a CM or CDM as well as our own product portfolio on the control section side.
Unidentified Participant
Got it, sir. Got it, sir. Then my second question is, sir, on Atlanta, we have had 1 billion units capacity. We are doubling up to $2 billion in terms of revenue potential from us. Again, I’m not asking for exact numbers. I’m looking more from a broader split. If you look two years ahead, right. If you look two years ahead, our U.S. revenue or the regulated U.S. revenue, what portion would be coming from this Atlanta plan? I’m just trying to look at the split.
Swapnil Shah
Between India and US from a US revenue perspective.
Deval Shah
So you know, this year from our US-regulated side we expect to do about 400 odd crores. And on a steady state going forward basis you can assume between 20 to 30% CAGR growth. You know, that’s what we anticipate and that’s what we feel we’ll be able to achieve. I think at this point of time, I think that should be good enough for us to take that forward.
Swapnil Shah
And just to add and answer your question, currently entire revenue of us is coming from US side.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Okay. Got it, Got it. Sorry I missed that nuance. Okay. From here on again we’ll try for Ahmedabad as well. But currently everything is from the US side itself. Got it?
Swapnil Shah
Yes, absolutely correct. Yeah. Anyway, control substances and government has to be from us. Currently most of the retail is also from us. So you can take it like that.
Unidentified Participant
Perfect. Perfect. Very helpful. Thank you so much.
Swapnil Shah
Thank you.
Deval Shah
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rudraksha from I thought financial consulting. Please go ahead.
Rudraksh Raheja
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity, sir. Congratulations on a good set of numbers. My first question is could you give us the split between CDMO and this formulations business? In the regulated markets
Swapnil Shah
All businesses are formulation actually. So cdmo, CMO and own products. That is what you are asking?
Rudraksh Raheja
Yeah, yeah, that is what I’m asking.
Swapnil Shah
So in the current quarter I would say that CDMO CMO was about 28 crore and rest all was own products. But again this is not a trend. It all depends on which particular quarter what is the demand position. But overall, annually, whatever I achieve, you can say that generally the split will be almost equal.
Rudraksh Raheja
Okay. So going forward we should assume it should be 50. 50.
Deval Shah
Again you know it’s very difficult. It will depend upon the order inflow and the kind of business that we are looking at. But you may consider this to be broadly in sync with our overall strategy of keeping it almost equal.
Rudraksh Raheja
Understood, sir. And in the regulated markets business, could you give me how much do we get it from the government sector? I think you touched upon that in your initial remarks also.
Swapnil Shah
Yeah. So currently almost at 60 to 70% business is between government and control substance of overall pie of the business that. That we have from the US and the remaining about 20, 30, 30 odd percent is between the specialty and retail side of the business. So a large part of our existing business goes into government and control substance.
Deval Shah
Just to add, I think we are not dealing directly with the government. Again, it is just through our partners that they supply to the government. We don’t supply directly to the government.
Rudraksh Raheja
Understood, sir. And sir, going forward, do we see the split changing in any way?
Deval Shah
No, I think it should be the same.
Swapnil Shah
It should be the same going forward as well because that’s been a part of our strategy. Right. That’s where we leverage upon our local manufacturing in the US so that’s where the whole 3DMO place comes in for us. Right. So we don’t expect that split to change going forward as we speak.
Rudraksh Raheja
Answer within this government and control substance business, I think you mentioned something like they have more stable contracts and stable margins while the retail side would be more volatile comparatively. Is my understanding correct regarding this?
Swapnil Shah
Yeah, that’s correct. So usually national contracts for government are awarded for five years with a one year, one to two year of extension on the national contract. The price is stable, the volumes are stable. So your predicting of cash flow becomes very, very consistent on those government national contracts that you bid for a new win and you supply. So it’s different from how the retail market functions where there will be more volatility and fluctuation in terms of how the businesses are done.
Deval Shah
But in terms of the percentage profitability, owned product margins would be higher because there are three distinct revenue streams that we have talked about. That is the licensing fee, cogs and then the profit share. So as a percentage. Yes, I think your own product portfolio would have higher margin just for your reference.
Rudraksh Raheja
That’s all understood sir. I’ll come back in queue for more questions. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Before we take the next participant, we would like to wish that you may press chart in one to ask a question. The next question is from the line of Pranav Gandhi from Lotus Wealth. Please go ahead.
Pranav Gandhi
Hi. Congratulations on the great numbers. I had a couple of questions. The first one is that in the PPT it’s mentioned that you’ve commercialized 24 products but we’ve only launched one like to one. So what’s preventing us from faster product rollouts?
Swapnil Shah
Your voice was not clear.
Deval Shah
So Pranav, I think your question is why we have only launched two and not more in the quarter.
Swapnil Shah
It’s all launched.
Deval Shah
No, no, it’s a function of, you know, an ongoing process which. Yeah, no, so all are launched. It’s not that two were additionally launched. Right. So remaining all are already launched. It’s not that we only launched 2 out of 24. So all the products that we have approval for, we have launched and then the number I think you’re probably seeing is 70. That are all 70 approved ANDA products. A lot of them are acquisition products. Right. So we’ll be in the process of launching them in coming quarters.
So probably some will be launched next quarter and then going forward every quarter with a few launches from the deposition portfolio that we have.
Swapnil Shah
It’s a process of, you know, once we have the under we approach our marketing partner and then the whole process, the cycle, then there are a lot of trials and you know, it’s a process, it doesn’t happen automatically but I think predictably you will see more launches every quarter going forward.
Pranav Gandhi
Wonderful, wonderful. And this another question. We’ve got nine, sorry, 719 products under registration in emerging markets. So how do you prioritize regulatory filings and manage the associate cost and timing? Like what are the timeline structures in the emerging market segment that we have?
Swapnil Shah
Correct. So on emerging markets, each market regulatory functions very, very differently because each market has a different dosage requirements, each market has a different samples requirement and the review cycles also differ from market to market. Right. Probably in our presentation you would have also seen what is the breakup of those 719 region wise.
As you can see, each region demonstrated a different opportunity put together. So very difficult to pinpoint that what five products would work and what 10 products would work. But, but largely speaking, we would have an approval between 12 to 18 months for those 719 products that are of the MOH. So say by 18 months from today we would add about 718 products will get registered and ready to be launched.
In hindsight, if I have to summarize that number.
Pranav Gandhi
So don’t we have certain products which are under the latter stages of these developments?
Swapnil Shah
Can you be a little more clearer please?
Pranav Gandhi
Don’t we have certain products, like certain number of products? Which are already in the later stages of this process.
Swapnil Shah
Which are already in the
Pranav Gandhi
Latter stages of this later stages.
Swapnil Shah
No, they are. Right. So as I said, In 18 months I expect all 719 to be approved and launched. Right now that could be 20% of the 719 could launch in next three to six months. 20% of 719 could be launched in six to nine months. Right. So they are all at a different stage of evaluation. They are all at different stage of approval. Right. So as I’m saying, as a period of 18 months we expect all 719 to be approved. And by that time we would have another 500 plus under registration. Right. So that keeps on going, you know, in terms of emerging market registration in different markets.
Pranav Gandhi
Perfect. Thanks a lot.
Swapnil Shah
Thank you.
Deval Shah
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rajesh Kothari from Alpha Advisors. Please go ahead.
Rajesh Kothari
Good afternoon sir. Great leaders. So that’s a good thing. And in terms of the CDMA revenue in regulated markets, how do you see that over next two years particularly in FY26 and FY27? And number two, what is the current order book typically? What is the execution time frame for this order book?
Swapnil Shah
So two questions, right? So one is currently this year we said we’ll do about 400 odd crores from the US side of the business. And typically as we discussed 50% would come from a CDM or CMO. That’s about 200 odd crores that will come from CDM or CMO segment. That’s this year projection going forward. As I said, About 20, 30% CAGR growth is what we expect out of our US side of the business. So typically if we keep the same split on the business that will give us that kind of visibility on the CDM or CMO side of the business as far as order book is concerned.
Again as I said we have order book spilling overall next 12 to 15, 18 months. But coming to those numbers of 200 odd crores for this year should be able to achieve for current year as I understand.
Rajesh Kothari
So what is the current order book? Sorry, I didn’t get the right answer.
Swapnil Shah
About 23 million for KDMO. About 23 million for KDMO CMO US dollar. So Sanjay, it is 23 million dollar
Rajesh Kothari
Is a zone today, am I right?
Pranav Chawla
Post is the first quarter correct as on the beginning of the quarter.
Rajesh Kothari
Okay,
Swapnil Shah
Current quarter.
Rajesh Kothari
Yeah, understood. And when you look at say 200 crore kind of a revenues in FY26 from this business in FY. 27, do you expect, you know, kind of a. Another 30, 40% percent kind of a growth based on the pipeline?
Swapnil Shah
I think we would, we would be able to guide 20, 30% CAGR going forward. I think very accurate projections we’ll be able to give by end of this year, early next year, I’m saying calendar year, you know, that would be a right time for us to kind of give very, very accurate growth projection for the next year. But you know, we are also adding capacities in anticipation the third round and the fourth round.
So we see a very different pipeline. There are a few other developments also on which we are working. So it’s a function of, you know, multiple factors. But yes, 100% strong growth going forward over 25, 30% is working even. We have an extremely busy year this year in terms of launches. So as you know, a product gets launched today, it takes six to nine months to even achieve that kind of peak sales number. You know, because you sign contracts, contracts get materialized and the supply start.
So even the launches that will happen in second half of this year will have its peak next year. You know, so you will see, I think probably, I know you want to want us to give us guidance for the next year, which I think right now we’ll stick to about 20, 30% cabaret going forward, but we’ll have an accurate number by end of this year.
Rajesh Kothari
Just to you know, clarify on this because in the opening remark you said that Your guidance for FY26 is a revenue growth of 50% and 100% net profit. Am I right?
Swapnil Shah
That’s right. That’s right, correct.
Rajesh Kothari
And at the same time you also said that, you know, your CDMO kind of a growth current year, you are looking at about, you know, revenue of roughly, you know, that, that you said about 20 order book is 23 million dollar. And this gets executed over what this was about 10, 15 months, 12 to 18 months.
Swapnil Shah
No, no, this will be. So I think the system of order book is something that you need to understand. So what we do is we get long term contract and then rolling orders.
Rajesh Kothari
Okay, now what happens the firm order book we talk about is the firm rolling orders that we have already got from the partners.
Swapnil Shah
There are quite a few discussions which are also on table. So now it is not something like an EPC contractor. A23 is in this year going to be executed. Part of it would be rolled over, part of it would be substituted by fresh orders. But I’m what we are trying to say that we have decent visibility to guidance. Without any difficulty.
Rajesh Kothari
Okay. It means even the non US business you are looking at good growth even from the non US business. That is the emerging market. But yes.
Swapnil Shah
So there are three things. One, my API is coming into production, full production this year. And though a backward integration activity some business will go out. Second, the emerging market portfolio is going to be much stronger than what we have done last year. So we expect a very good growth on the emerging market. More importantly moving into the positive margin territory on the emerging market size.
And then the branded generic Testil explained about 4045 crores. We are expecting bulk of injectables, hospital supplies and that too is growing quite rapidly. So Pura melake we have guided that we should do definitely about 600 crores top line this year. 600 to 650 as the range that we have talked about. And a very very strong growth in profitability as well.
Rajesh Kothari
Good. Great.
Swapnil Shah
Sir, you know we are on shifting sand. There is nothing firm but overall Jojo indication that confidence is you know coming to us. That yes, there will be some compensation here and there. Some vertical taking care of a little higher growth. Something not exactly happening the way we want because we are dependent on so many partners. But this is what we are confident to deliver this year.
Rajesh Kothari
Great sir, wishing you all the best. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We would like to request participants to limit the question to two per participant. The next question is from the line of Yasha from Aditya Velas on life insurance. Please go ahead.
Yash Shah
Hello. Hi sir, congratulations on great set of numbers. So I just had one question. I’m not sure if you answered that. I joined the call a little bit late. We had a delay of around. Because of the delay we were not able to record around 15 crores of revenue in the previous quarter. Has that come in in this quarter? The only question which I had.
Swapnil Shah
Yes. Hi. Yes, thank you. Yes, that revenue partly been didn’t come in this quarter. And that’s also reflective of our quarterly results. And part of it is probably going to be in this quarter as well.
Yash Shah
Okay. Okay. So about. Okay, got it. One more question which I had was on the CDMO side we just mentioned that currently we are sitting on order book of around 23 million. So from like how is the order book looking like on the CDMO site? Like is there any broad number which you can get. Till the end of the year. What is the amount of order book that we expect to sit on?
Swapnil Shah
Yes, I think, yes, the good number to talk about right now is what we’ve said. As Sanjay Bhai just pointed out, there are multiple discussions that are happening on CDMO side with multiple partners. And then as you know there are a lot of development contracts, right? So development takes about 12 to 15 months before the product gets filed and so on and so forth. Some of the CDMO work that we’ve done at Tech Transfer, we have qualified a new API source that also goes into PAS which takes about 8 to 10 months for us to get approval.
At least 12 months in some cases. So those are the things. What kind of revenue projection from a time frame standpoint we can give? I think it will be a little tough because there are regulatory approvals that are also needed. So as we move forward I think we’ll be able to give better upward guidance on the CDMO side of the business. But today as we speak, I think the numbers that we’ve given is quite comfortable and we are quite confident of meeting those numbers for the current year.
Yash Shah
Perfect sir, perfect. Thank you. That’s all from my side. All the best sir.
Swapnil Shah
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Thomas Abraham from Mira Asset. Please go ahead.
Thomas Abraham
Hi. Congratulations on good set of numbers. Most of the questions have already been answered. If it’s possible to give a further few more details regarding it, one would be in the regulated market and the emerging markets, what is the geographical breakup? So if I’m looking at country wise, what would that be like and where are we expecting in these areas? Where are we expecting the highest growth or higher growth numbers?
Secondly in terms of Capex, are we looking at, you mentioned a good order book as well. So in terms of the order book are we looking at additional CapEx to be able to deliver for this case, for this order book and to what extent would it be in terms of the manufacturing side of it and any other aspect as well where the Capex would go into.
Swapnil Shah
Thank you Rama. So on the regulated side of the business currently most of the revenue comes from the us so whatever the growth guidance that we’ve given is us focused. That’s number one on emerging market our top markets have been part of Africa which is Ghana, Tanzania. On Middle east we have Yemen, Kuwait. On CIS we have Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan. On Far east side we have Myanmar, Cambodia, Philippines. So these are our top markets. Latin America also we’ve added Bolivia, Guatemala, Ecuador. So these are our top markets on the emerging market now breaking out market wise revenue. Would be misleading because each quarter will represent a different mix. So these are the top markets. I would probably want to stick to that. On the CapEx side, as we already discussed we have two manufacturing lines that are already operational in the U.S. the second line has been operational for almost last six months now third line is almost about to be completion which will be get which will get operationalizing Q3 of this year and fourth line which we are planning to install will be end of this year. So those are the four lines on the overall solid that we are planning at the US facility and tentative CAPEX is going to be about two or two and a half million in the US and we are also strategically looking at our manufacturing setup in India which would also help us cater to the markets that we are not currently catering it to. So markets today that we do, we don’t have any businesses. Brazil, Mexico, European Union, very small business in UK but EU a couple of countries but not largely we cater to South Africa, very small business catering it from the US side. But we can still do a lot more business with our existing product pipeline that we have. Australia, New Zealand, couple of those markets. Now the beauty or even Saudi Arabia for that matter. Now beauty is in this market. Any US approved Anda we get expedited review and products get commercialized fairly quickly. So once we have the setup and US approved products that we have we’ll be able to access this market in a much faster way compared to a completely new development that one takes undertakes. So those are the things also we are looking at overall Capex I think we’ll do in tune of 150 crores this year. We’ve said 250 but I think looking at where we are I think 150 would be the right number of overall capex between us as well as India is what we anticipate for the year
Thomas Abraham
That of it will spill to the next year. So this year actual about 150 and then still over of 50 plus next year.
Swapnil Shah
Yes.
Thomas Abraham
Okay, thank you. Thanks a lot.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Natic Mohade from Sequent Investments. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Good afternoon sir. Congratulations on a great set of numbers. My first question is so the API facilities which were initially commissioned. So I think we were planning that you would get a US FDA for the facility somewhere around 42 this year. So is it on track how the officials come for inspection and what is the progress and time?
Swapnil Shah
Yeah, so Nitik, I would love to get it inspection. Expected this year. But I think what we said is Q2 next year is when we expect FDA to come and inspect. Why we are confident of them coming next year because the product that we are filing DMF for, we already have an existing commercial product in the US So only on that product we are qualifying as a second source. So the approval timeline is very definite for us and the inspection timeline is also very definite for us to get triggered on the API side for the US business.
Naitik Mohata
This would be sometime in 42, but standards are going.
Swapnil Shah
That’s correct. Yes.
Naitik Mohata
Okay. Okay. Sir, my second question would be like what are the.
Swapnil Shah
Yeah, please go.
Naitik Mohata
Yeah, my second question would be like what are the top five products for us in the CDMO and what is the percentage of like what is the profile percentage of total CVM of sales?
Swapnil Shah
So due to our obligation with, you know, we’ve got NDAs in place with our customer and partners so we are not able to disclose the product names. But top five product will contribute about again 60 to 70% of all the entire CDMO business that we have drastically change. I don’t think so. I don’t foresee that change drastically
Operator
. May we request that you return to the question queue for a follow up as there are several participants waiting for the turn. Thank you. The next question is from the line of Tarshal Zaveri from Crown Capital. Please go ahead.
Darshil Jhaveri
Hello. Hello. Hello. Hi. Hi. Hi. Firstly, congratulations on a great set of results, sir. Hopefully I’m audible.
Swapnil Shah
Yeah. Thank you.
Darshil Jhaveri
Yeah, yeah. Sir, I think a lot of my questions are already been answered. So just wanted to know like current year emerging market business, we hope to become profitable. So what would be the. Is it breaking even right now or maybe you are expecting an H2 for it to breaking even or how is it right now, boys? Sir,
Swapnil Shah
We have done about 6% EBITDA in the emerging market. We believe we should reach closer to double digit. Closer to double digit. Hopefully at least around 10% is what we are believing. See what happens as the new registrations kick in. You commit. It takes time to reach a reasonable level of volumes. So I think 100% next year we should be in mid teens in the emerging market in terms of EBITDA this year, hopefully double digit. That’s what the target is.
Darshil Jhaveri
Okay, okay. And, and on like what basis? Like on pad basis it’s going to become like profitable at 10% mid teens. What level would it be like profitable at, sir?
Swapnil Shah
Yeah, on pet business we should be I think marginally positive this year.
Darshil Jhaveri
Okay, that, that, that’s great to hear, sir. So like next year also our margins can improve even further from what they are currently because. And so also want to know like we have like the backward integration also going and we also have, we also raise funds for you know, inorganic opportunities. So how is that going on? So have we, you know, got a target that you know, we want to acquire or what? The timeline for that process,
Swapnil Shah
Inorganic growth was largely on product side of the business. We’ve already done close to 20 plus end acquisitions so far and we’ll be continue to look for more as long as it fits in our strategy. So that’s, that’s been our, that’s been our focus and that’s what we’ve been, we’ve been executing as well. Okay. Okay, perfect. Perfect, sir.
Darshil Jhaveri
And this is like last one, bookkeeping question from Mayan. So our tax rate, what do we, you know, you know, visualize that as. Because I think you’re on your. There’s some fluctuation because I understand there’s some element from us, some from India. So what do we, you know, can take as a rough tax Renter
Swapnil Shah
Should be around 20% on an average. Yes, it will be around 20%.
Darshil Jhaveri
Okay. Okay. Okay, perfect. Perfect. So yeah, that’s it from my side. So all the best. Thank you.
Swapnil Shah
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vivek Gautam from GS Investments. Please go ahead.
Vivek Gautam
Yes, sir. First of all, congratulations on good numbers. Second, the question was about the negative cash flow. So is this negative cash flow a story of the past with the company coming into positive cash flow in this first quarter?
Swapnil Shah
No. So this quarter we have had 11 crores of operating positive cash. And sorry I missed your second question. What was it?
Vivek Gautam
No, basically yeah. What were the factors contributing it to it? Sir, earlier the company was in negative cash flow. And, and what were the factors behind our company turned into positive cash flow?
Swapnil Shah
Sir. Negative, negative. Negative cash flow is a function of continuous growth and reinvest. Investment. I think it’s a bit early for us to tell you that. What percentage of the cash would be as a surplus? Positive cash. Let’s wait for a couple of quarters. We have a lot of growth still coming but we are very confident of continuous positive cash flow from the operations.
Vivek Gautam
Okay sir. And second thing was about the business in the emerging countries. There was lot of complaints on that cuff tariffs and poisoning and leading to death and lot of inquiry by the government of India and World bank and were funding it. So basically how is our company taking care of it? And we are totally away from that sir.
Swapnil Shah
We are totally. We don’t do any cops errors, zero whatever registration that we read. We’ve discontinued those
Vivek Gautam
And our other product range is totally safe in that manner. Yeah. Okay. Thank you sir. Keep up the good work.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Umesh Matkar from Sushil Financial Services Ltd. Please go ahead.
Umesh Matkar
Yeah, thank you for the opportunity. So first of all I would like to know how are you going to find the expansion plan that you have in US and other regions. And second thing, what are the risk factors that you see for achieving your revenue? Top line of around 600 to 650 crores. Thank you.
Swapnil Shah
Yeah. So Capex is going to be service from internal approvals, part of debt and part of our IPO proceedings. So all three combined. You know, depending upon what and how we require the funds and the risk factors of achieving 50%. I mean there could be some regulatory risk, there could be some foreseeable risk that we already know. We don’t foresee any. Or maybe some outrageous discussion on the tariffs. Right. I mean which we don’t anticipate but we never know. Right. So those are those industry standard risk factors that you see which leads by any pharma company. I don’t foresee anything over and above that what the industry risk factors are.
Umesh Matkar
Okay. Any price erosion risk that you might see in us especially in a non CDMO or controlled substance business.
Swapnil Shah
Correct. So our dependency on each Product revenue is about 2, 2.5% of total revenue that we have. So there could be price erosion. As you rightly said, our exposure towards retail is limited. But even if there’s a price erosion that comes in on that particular product, my exposure is only 2.5% each one. So even if that comes in on a console. I’m kind of protected. Plus there’s an existing product portfolio expansion that happens, right? The new product approval that comes in, new product launches that will happen, that will whatever that small little erosion that could come in that will fill that gap and give us that continuous growth that we’ve anticipated. So anything that we have projected for this year, I think those factors are already being taken care of as we speak. So we don’t foresee a major or even something that could hurt us in terms of our guidance that we’ve given.
Umesh Matkar
Right sir. And last question. Can I have a breakup of therapeutic areas that we cater on total basis? If I missed it earlier,
Swapnil Shah
We generally don’t give out therapeutic area wise breakup. But is there anything specific to any product that you would have? Probably will be able to answer it. But generally the way we track our business is the US business which is compromising between two verticals, our own product vertical and a CDM or cmo. The therapeutic area that we work with across the board, we have pain management, we have infertility, we have cardiovascular, cnf, antidepressants, endocrine, ssri, muscle relax and respiratory. So these are all different therapeutic areas that we work across.
Umesh Matkar
Okay. Yeah, that would be it. Thank you very much and wish you all the best.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shreya Chatterjee from Ageless Capital Finance. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Hello sir. Thank you for taking my questions. Congratulations on a fantastic set of results. So. So my first question is a bit more on the strategic side like you mentioned about Senos like capability in complex generic therapies, CGT and the control substances. So I specifically wanted to understand like what R D capabilities does Senos have and like if you could also give some color onto the quality audit certifications that are required for you manufacturing centers. Thank you.
Pranav Chawla
Yes, thank you Shreya. So on the R and D infrastructure we have currently two R&D centers. One center is in India and the second center is in the US. So almost all products for emerging markets and products that are non controlled are developed in India and then they are tech transferred to US side. Whether it is cmo, CDMO or our own side of the product, anything that is on the control substance side, our 100% development happens in the United States.
Swapnil Shah
We have about 12 people in RND in the US as we speak. So that develops 100% development is done there as far as quality audits are concerned. You know we of course US plant is FDA approved and our Indian plant formulation plan that we have, we are, we have WHO GMP approved and we have multiple MOH approvals from different countries like starting from Kuwait, Yemen, Philippines, you know we have Peru, Digimat, of course we have got few of Azerbaijan and couple of other markets that we have, Tanzania, Kenya. Those approvals we have. On the energy market side,
Umesh Matkar
I wanted to understand more on the R and D side, like is there any specific capability that Synos have which is helping it to win in this competitive space? If you could maybe
Swapnil Shah
Are R&D’s headed by, you know, a very proficient gentleman who has got experience on handling lot of oral solids, complex oral solids across right From a basic IR to er, XR sublinguals, ODT chewables, tablets, pallets in capsules, multiple coating technologies. For a lot of those aspects of the business. On R and D which is typically driving the oral solid, we are able to do everything right. So that speaks for our R and D development or R and D capability that we have with our people and infrastructure that we currently have. On injectable side which we cater to on emerging market. We also do vials, ampoules, pfs, deconate injections, multiple dose, different type of capability, manufacturing capabilities that we have on the injection side as well as so put together, I think I would say very good R and D capability on the market that we cater to and the kind of product range that we have today.
Deval Shah
So just to add, I think six, seven strong team in US and a 50 plus. 12. Sorry, 12 strong team in US and 50 plus in India.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. So Anton, if I understand.
Operator
Sorry to interrupt. Ms. Shreya, can I request you to return to the question?
Unidentified Participant
I’ll just finish it. So novel formulation is something you’re looking into for the control substance, is my understanding correct?
Swapnil Shah
Yes, yes. So you know we are looking at ODTs, sublinguals, chewables which are those formulation on existing products through our NDA and firefighter route for the us. That’s the complex area that we work upon that continues the development that happens at our site.
Unidentified Participant
Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. Will take the last questions from the line of Mitesh Mehta from Long Term Investment Group. Please go ahead.
Mitesh Mehta
Hello. Yeah. Congratulations for good set of numbers. My first question is regarding revenue share. Proposed revenue shares in three years like we are moving on to emerging markets as well. So what would be say revenue split among emerging and North American markets two or three years down the line?
Deval Shah
Difficult to predict but I think we’ll still maintain a lead around only level 60, 40 car ratio. This is what our belief is. But I think we’ll see at least for next this year and next year minimum 60% from regulated and 40% around.
Mitesh Mehta
Okay. And second and last question is regarding any plans for foray into domestic branded markets say a few years down the line.
Swapnil Shah
Sir, we are already present in domestic branded generics market. We have about 80, 85 people staff. We are currently present in about 22 states. We are also approved in almost top notch pharma hospitals of India. Guys from Apollo. We are approved in. We are approved in Ames lot of Ames locations. We are uploading PGI Chandigarh also. We are uploading so lot of good reputed hll also. We are uploading so lot of good reputed hospitals across India.
Our products are currently been distributed and administered. So this is hospital segment predominantly.
Mitesh Mehta
And what would be the revenue share of the local generics or branded generics? Local market revenue share
Swapnil Shah
Targeted to do about 50 crores this year from our branded generics vertical.
Mitesh Mehta
Okay. Okay, thank you. That’s it for my side. All the best.
Swapnil Shah
Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, that was the last question for the day. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments. Over to you sir.
Swapnil Shah
Thank you. I would like to once again thank everyone for joining our earnings call. We will keep updating the investor community on a regular basis of the developments at Synorial. I hope we have been able to address all your queries. For any further information, kindly reach out to us. We’ll be more than happy to address those. Thank you once again.
Operator
Thank you on behalf of Ambit Capital limited that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.