Mold-Tek Packaging Limited Q4 FY23 Earnings Conference Call Insights

Key highlights from Mold-Tek Packaging Limited (MOLDTKPAC) Q4 FY23 Earnings Concall

Management Update:

• [00:03:25] MOLDTKPAC recorded one of the best volume growths in its history at 16.3% and PAT was up by 26.3%.

Q&A Highlights:

• [00:04:49] Karan Khanna from Ambit Capital enquired on the current status of pharma packaging business, key hirings, and companies MOLDTKPAC is working with in the regulated pharma segment. Janumahanti Rao MD said the core team for the pharma packaging business is in place and buildings and machines are being completed. Commercial production will start in Aug.-Sept. with contributions to revenue starting from 3Q. Regulated tablet packs will start in a big way next year due to the long time for approvals.

• [00:07:23] Karan Khanna of Ambit Capital asked about the ambition for the scale of the IBM pharma packaging business till FY26 and could it open up export opportunities for MOLDTKPAC. Janumahanti Rao MD said export opportunities will be available with the addition of new products to the product mix. The company aims to achieve a turnover of INR75-80 crores in the pharma division in 3 years from the current INR10 crores.

• [00:08:39] Karan Khanna of Ambit Capital asked to break down the 30% volume growth in the lubes business and how much was driven by industry volume growth, day sales, and conversion to QR coded IML containers. Janumahanti Rao MD answered that DEF is more than 12-15%. QR coded Shell has converted some of its brands into QR code and IML conversion. The growth coming from this shift could be around 8-10%.

• [00:10:42] Sandeep Agarwal at Naredi Investments asked about the internal IRR assessment with the investments. Janumahanti Rao MD replied that it’s a four year IRR to recover the funds, with one year kept as projects and preliminary.

• [00:12:49] Sandeep Agarwal with Naredi Investments asked about the growth outlook in the next 1 or 2 years and have there been any challenges due to the current economic environment in USA. Janumahanti Rao MD said the company benefits from the growth in the US electric vehicle market and has two divisions, civil and mechanical, experiencing rapid growth. The previous work on a Tesla project in 2019 is helping attract inquiries and orders from other automobile companies, indicating a bright future for the next 3-4 years.

• [00:14:01] Sandeep Agarwal with Naredi Investments queried about any guidance regarding the next year’s order book for both the civil and mechanical divisions. Janumahanti Rao MD said the company expects around 25-30% growth in the civil division because they achieved 49% growth in the previous year. MOLDTKPAC is on a bigger base of $18 million this year and hope to hit somewhere close to $23-24 million.

• [00:17:58] Koushik Mohan from Ashika Stock Broking asked about guidance on the EBITDA margins for the next 2-3 years. Janumahanti Rao MD answered that MOLDTKPAC has new paint clients and new segments like pharma adding to its numbers. They have steady growth in food and FMCG and plan to set up a food and FMCG plant in the north by Jan-Feb of ’24 along with an ABG Paints plant. MOLDTKPAC hopes to continue the trend of 30% plus growth in the food and FMCG division for the next few years. The EBITDA margin is expected to reach around 42-43 per kilogram in the next 2-3 years.

• [00:19:39] Koushik Mohan from Ashika Stock Broking asked about plans for capex and increasing capacity utilization for all plants. Janumahanti Rao MD said there is a big capex plan of INR130-140 crores for the year ’23 and ’24 mainly for the Sultanpur plant’s second phase, followed by Panipat, Cheyyar and other plants for ABG. In Panipat, MOLDTKPAC is also setting up a food and FMCG product base. The total investment in the last 5-5.5 years will be INR 420 crores.

• [00:26:56] Darshan Jhaveri of Crown Capital asked what are the company’s growth targets for the next few years and are there any indications of revenue or volume growth targets. Janumahanti Rao MD clarified that the company is aiming for an annual CAGR of at least 15-20% volume growth in the next three years. This is clearly visible and can be closer to 20% if some of company’s clients achieve their own targets. For guidance, the annual growth rate for the next 3 years is expected to be 15-20%.

• [00:29:47] Sunder S of Avendus Spark enquired about the paint volumes, if it’s slowing down in the end market of loss of market share. Janumahanti Rao MD said the company has not lost any major clients or volumes to clients. MOLDTKPAC’s growth is estimated to be within 1% of the paint industry’s growth. The company has indicated a 15-20% volume growth guidance. In the paint sector, the company is not looking at anything beyond 8-9% growth for the financial year ’23 and ’24. Three ABG plants will go into production and could start adding numbers to Mold-Tek.

• [00:36:29] Piyush Khandelwal from Bank of India asked about the sustainable range for working capital for the next 2-3 years and is there a sustainable reduction due to product mix changes in pharma. Janumahanti Rao MD replied that one of the reasons for improved collections and decreased inventories is the ability to have clients who pay faster. In the food and FMCG field, payments are faster and some advances are collected from smaller clients, resulting in a reduction in the number of days.

• [00:43:38] Pulkit Singhal of Dalmus Capital queried about the volumes for thin wall for the year and how much growth is expected in for thin wall in the next 2-3 years. Janumahanti Rao MD said that in 2023, the total tonnage of thin wall is around 6,753, contributing to a 32.6% growth compared to the previous year’s 5,100. A 30% plus growth is anticipated in the coming weeks. Thin wall is 4,180, vs. 5,080, which is a 35.5% growth.

• [00:49:36] Jenish Karia from Antique Stock Broking asked about the volume and value number in IML and non-IML. Janumahanti Rao MD said in terms of IML and non-IML it closed in terms of tonnage at 4% for the year, up from 62% last year. For sales value, it is close to 68% from 65.3%.

• [00:51:56] Jaiveer Shekhawat at Ambit Capital enquired what is MOLDTKPAC’s strategy to handle margin pressure from existing paint companies due to Grasim’s entry in the paint industry. Janumahanti Rao MD said clients are being informed of cost price and compensation. Some have given relief from April. Labor and power costs are being negotiated. Some major clients have approved the request effective from April 1st. If other clients agree, there may not be pressure for the next couple of years.