Modi Naturals Limited (BSE: 519003) Q4 2025 Earnings Call dated May. 29, 2025
Corporate Participants:
Akshay Modi — Joint Managing Director
Analysts:
Gunit Singh Narang — Analyst
Rohit Mehra — Analyst
Rajavi Shah — Analyst
Shaurya Punyani — Analyst
Vaishnavi Saboo — Analyst
Praveen Sharma — Individual Investor
Anukool Arora — Analyst
Manav Jain — Analyst
Suvankar Mallick — Analyst
Harsh Sheth — Analyst
Karthik Nair — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q4 FY ’25 Earnings Conference Call of Modi Naturals Limited. [Operator Instructions]
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Akshay Modi, Joint Managing Director. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Akshay Modi — Joint Managing Director
Thank you. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us for the Modi Naturals Limited Q4 and FY ’25 earnings conference call. I trust you have had an opportunity to review our financial results and investor presentation, both available on the Company’s website and on Stock Exchanges. SGA, our Investor Relations Advisor, is joining me on this call.
It gives me immense pleasure to share that we have been sowing seeds of growth over the last few years, and FY ’25, the year in which the Company completed 50 years since inception, has seen them bear fruit. At Modi Naturals Limited, we have not only fully revived our business operations but have also marked FY ’25 as a landmark year of reversal, resurgence, and renewed growth. At the start of the year, we set ambitious targets for ourselves across revenue, EBITDA and PAT.
We are pleased to announce that we have met our guidance. This outstanding performance is a testimony to our team’s agility, our relentless focus on operational efficiency, and a favorable demand environment across all our divisions. These factors have collectively driven substantial growth and resilience across the organization. The FMCG sector remains the foundation of the Indian economy, deeply ingrained in the everyday lives of millions. The industry is undergoing rapid transformation, driven by shifting consumer habits, growing health consciousness, and increased demand for transparency. Today’s consumers are more informed than ever. They study product labels, evaluate ingredients, and prefer products that align with their values and wellness goals. This evolving landscape has presented us with an opportunity to strategically position ourselves at the intersection of quality, transparency, and health.
Our flagship brand, Oleev, represents this transformation. Designed for the health-conscious consumer, Oleev oils offer tangible benefits, including heart health, characteristics, and superior cooking performance. This alignment with consumer expectations has allowed us to build a strong brand presence and a loyal customer base. Our Consumer Division remains a strong pillar of growth. Our flagship brand, Oleev, delivered exceptional performance. While input cost volatility and macroeconomic challenges did pose headwinds, our strategic foresight and operational discipline enabled us to deliver consistent value and strong growth. Our non-oil portfolio also saw significant progress.
We have witnessed strong traction in our product acceptance and consistent volume growth across multiple categories. This performance underscores the effectiveness of our diversification strategy and reinforces our commitment to expanding beyond the oil business. One key highlight in FY ’25 was the strategic investment in marketing and brand building. Recognizing the power of consumer engagement, we significantly enhanced our marketing spend and onboarded Karishma Kapoor as our brand ambassador. Our credibility and connection with our target demographic have helped amplify our brand messaging and deepen consumer resonance across all channels. We also made significant progress in expanding our distribution footprint. Along with strengthening our traditional general trade relationships, we expanded meaningfully into modern trade while establishing partnerships with leading e-commerce and quick-commerce platforms. These initiatives have significantly improved product accessibility, ensuring consumers can conveniently find our products across multiple touchpoints.
Coming to the Bulk Division. The last two years were particularly challenging due to the government-imposed reductions in oil prices and subsequent inventory corrections. However, these challenges are now behind us. We are witnessing a strong revival in business activity supported by softening commodity prices, improved monsoon, fresh crop inflows and favorable macroeconomic trends. Stabilization in oil prices and strategic operational initiatives have led to a marked improvement in EBITDA, paving the way for sustainable profitability in this division.
Turning to our newest and most promising vertical, Ethanol Division. Our Ethanol Division continues to be a key pillar of our long-term growth strategy and it’s fully aligned with the Government of India’s vision for a cleaner, greener and more sustainable energy future. The recent policy to allocate 52 lakh tons of rice for ethanol production backed by government subsidies and aggressive ethanol blending targets offers long-term visibility and ensures healthy operating margins for the industry. We are proud to contribute meaningfully to India’s energy transition through this initiative. In November ’23, we successfully commissioned the first phase of our ethanol plant with an initial capacity of 130 KL per day.
We faced initial challenges during the plant’s operational rollout and we swiftly address these issues and steadily optimize performance. Today the plant is running at optimal capacity. We are well positioned for growth. From the outset, we had taken a strategic decision to establish our distillery infrastructure with scalability in mind, enabling us to support future expansions. We are now progressing rapidly with the second phase of our ethanol facility, which is on track to commence by Q3 FY ’26. This expansion will add 180 KL per day to our current capacity, bringing our total ethanol production capacity to 310 KL per day. This marks a significant milestone in our journey.
Let me move to the financial section now. Coming to our consolidated financial performance, Q4 FY ’25 performance highlights. Revenue from operations is up by 58.5% to INR189.9 crores year-on-year. EBITDA for the quarter grew by 189% to INR16.1 crores year-on-year. EBITDA margins stood at 8.5%. PAT grew by 550% to INR8.2 crores year-on-year.
FY ’25 performance highlights. Revenue from operations is up by 65.8% to INR662.9 crores year-on-year. EBITDA for the quarter grew by 517% to INR56 crores. EBITDA margins stood at 8.4%. PAT became positive to INR31 crores as compared to a loss of INR1.4 crores in FY ’24. Cash flow from operations stood at INR48.8 crores versus negative cash flow of INR6.8 crores in FY ’24. ROCE stood at 18.3% compared to 2.1% in FY ’24. ROE stood at 25.5%. Debt to equity stood at 1.22 in FY ’25 versus 1.87 in FY ’24. Our net working capital day stood at 66 days in March ’25 as compared to 111 days in March ’24.
Coming to our divisional performance, Consumer Division. Revenue for Q4 FY ’25 stood at INR48.5 crores compared to INR42.1 crores in Q4 FY ’24, and FY ’25 stood at INR179.4 crores compared to INR169.1 crores in FY ’24. EBITDA for Q4 FY ’25 stood at INR3 crores as compared to INR4.9 crores in Q4 FY ’24, and for FY ’25 stood at INR15.1 crores as compared to INR18 crores in FY ’24. Increase in ad spend in Q3 and Q4 FY ’25, as planned, had an impact on EBITDA. Further, we are scaling up the Pasta portfolio under the Oleev Kitchen brand with celebrity endorsement and targeted advertising. Overall, the demand is improving, driven by expanded distribution, innovation and new product launches in our food basket.
Bulk Division. In Q4 FY ’25, our revenue stood at INR56.1 crores as compared to INR42.7 crores in Q4 FY ’24, and FY ’25 stood at INR158.6 crores as compared to INR188.6 crores in FY ’24. EBITDA stood at INR90 lakhs In Q4 FY ’24 as compared to loss of INR2.3 crores in Q4 FY ’24. And for FY ’25, EBITDA stood at INR1.7 crores as compared to loss of INR9.3 crores in FY ’24. Turn around in divisional performance in FY ’25 driven by improved demand and stabilization of commodity prices following inventory losses in FY ’24 due to declining oil prices.
Ethanol Division. In Q4 FY ’25, our revenue stood at INR85.3 crores and for FY ’25 stood at INR324.9 crores. EBITDA for Q4 FY ’25 stood at INR13 crores and for FY ’25 stood at INR42.7 crores. The ethanol distillery is currently operating at its optimum capacity. We received an order of INR300 crores for 41,000 KL from various OMCs through to October ’25. Division-wise ROCE for FY ’25 is as follows. The Consumer Branded Division, 31%, Bulk Oil Division, 1.2%, and Ethanol Division, 18.8% and on a consolidated basis, 18.3%. FY ’25, the year in which our Company turned 50, will be remembered as a turning point in the history of Modi Naturals Limited. The year in which we overcame adversity, strengthened our foundations and unlocked new avenues of growth.
We are entering FY ’26 with renewed confidence, sharper focus and greater momentum than ever before. As we look forward, we are confident in our ability to sustain and build on the momentum of FY ’25. Our vision for FY ’26 on a consolidated basis is as follows. Revenue expected to be in the range of INR850 crores to INR880 crores driven by increased volume across both oil and non-oil portfolios and higher ethanol capacity utilization. EBITDA expected to be in the range of INR80 crores to INR85 crores, supported by improved product mix, operational efficiencies, and higher margin contributions. And PAT expected to be in the range of INR42 crores to INR48 crores, aided by cost rationalization, margin expansion, and improved working capital management.
With this, now we can open the floor for questions. Thank you.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you, sir. We will now begin with the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Gunit Singh from Counter PMS. Please go ahead.
Gunit Singh Narang
Sir, what kind of utilization is our current ethanol plant running at? And before the commencement of the new ethanol plant, the expansion, what would be the drivers of growth in Q1 and Q2 of FY ’26?
Akshay Modi
So as far as the capacity utilization goes, we are running at full capacity utilization currently. And with the expansion coming in, we are expecting higher capacities later in the year. And we have given the annual guidance. We will come back to you with the quarterly guidance as well. In the Consumer Division, the run rate of growth has increased. So if you see over the quarters, we have grown Q1 at 3%, Q2 at almost nil, Q3, we started ramping up 7.7%, and Q4 at 15.2% growth. And Q1, we are expecting further growth increase. So as we are increasing our ad spends and focusing on the Consumer Division, the growth is ramping up.
Gunit Singh Narang
All right, sir. Got it. But I mean, we should be expected to remain in the similar quarterly run rate as Q4 FY ’25, right? Because the new capacity will come in Q3. So what are your thoughts about that?
Akshay Modi
Ethanol-wise, yes. But we are expecting higher revenue, like I said, in the Consumer Division and year-on-year also in the Bulk Division. So from that point of view, year-on-year basis, you will see a good quarter.
Gunit Singh Narang
All right, sir. And how long will it take for us to ramp up the new capacity?
Akshay Modi
Like I said, we are expecting to commission it by the end of Q2 or maybe early Q3.
Gunit Singh Narang
I mean, how long are we expected to ramp it up to 100% or optimal utilization? I mean, what kind of utilization should we expect for the first six months, for example?
Akshay Modi
It’s safe to assume maybe let’s say 50%, 60% in Q3 and then closer to 90% in Q4. It’s just an off the cuff calculation, but we will see how it pans out.
Gunit Singh Narang
All right, sir. Got it. Thank you.
Akshay Modi
We are talking about the expanding capacity only. The current capacity continues to run at 100%.
Gunit Singh Narang
All right, sir. Got it. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Rohit Mehra from SK Securities. Please go ahead.
Rohit Mehra
Hello? I’m audible?
Operator
Please go ahead, Rohit. Just a little louder. Thank you.
Rohit Mehra
Okay. Hi, sir, thank you for the opportunity. Congratulations on achieving the guidance. And I just wanted to understand that we have outperformed in Ethanol Division in terms of revenue, where we have fallen back in Bulk and other divisions. What are the — what were the reasons behind it?
Akshay Modi
So in the Bulk Division, we have not fallen back. In fact, we have recovered from FY ’24. And FY ’25 is, it marks a recovery in the Bulk Division. And Consumer Division as well on a year-on-year basis, we’ve grown at about 6%. But this was as planned in the first one or two quarters, where we scaled back our ad spends and then we increased them Q3 and Q4 onwards and the growth has come back. And that was always the plan.
Rohit Mehra
Okay, sir. Got it. And my second question is how much ROCE are we generating in Branded and Ethanol Divisions?
Akshay Modi
Yeah. So Ethanol ROCE is 18.8% and Branded is 31% for FY ’25.
Rohit Mehra
Okay, sir. Thank you. That’s it from my side and all the best.
Akshay Modi
Thank you.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Rajavi [Phonetic] from Bright Securities. Please go ahead.
Rajavi Shah
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. I just have two, three questions. The first one is, in terms of the Branded Division, how much revenue did we get from Tier 1 and Tier -2 cities?
Akshay Modi
We have not done the Tier-wise breakup. We will come back to you with that. We can give you a region-wise split if you want. So we have North leading the way at 46%, followed by South at 19%, West at 17% and East at 16%.
Rajavi Shah
Okay, sir, I just have like one more question. Are we planning to expand Ethanol Division beyond 210 KLPD? And if yes, do we have sufficient land bank to do the same? Also, do we have any thoughts on diversifying the business to another state?
Akshay Modi
So we are expanding our capacity from 130 KL to 310 KL. And we have enough land banks, in fact more. And the layout and infrastructure was always planned to expand capacity. So the expansion is taking place in the same premises and the same layout. And we have already funded the equity part from internal accruals. And we secured an INR88 crores long-term debt from HDFC Bank, which has already been taken up. Yeah.
Rajavi Shah
Okay. And like do we have thoughts to diversify the business to another state?
Akshay Modi
Not at present.
Rajavi Shah
Okay, sir, that was really helpful. Thank you.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Shaurya Punyani from Arjav Partners. Please go ahead.
Shaurya Punyani
Hi. Am I audible?
Akshay Modi
Yes.
Shaurya Punyani
Sir, regarding your capex, so how was that capex funded, both phases?
Akshay Modi
So as I mentioned, in the first phase, the equity part was funded through internal accruals of Modi Naturals, which invested into a subsidiary, which is Modi Biotech for this division. And in the initial — in the first phase, we got a debt of about INR105 crores for capex. And in the second phase, again, the equity part is being funded through internal accruals, and we have secured an INR88 crores long-term debt, which has already been disbursed.
Shaurya Punyani
INR88 crores, okay. And sir, regarding when the new capacity kicks in later this year, so can we expect like a similar growth in next year also, FY ’27?
Akshay Modi
Yes, I mean, you can do the calculations. So we are expecting an asset turn of about 3.4 times after expansion from the full total capex of the Ethanol Division, plus the growth from the other three — other two divisions.
Shaurya Punyani
Okay, sir, that’s it. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Vaishnavi from Scientific Investing. Please go ahead.
Vaishnavi Saboo
Hello? So I have a couple of questions. So what are the sustainable margins in each of the business segments?
Akshay Modi
So the Bulk division, I would refrain from commenting as it has a volatile component. The Branded Division, we have — we started off FY ’25 with about a 15% EBITDA. And then we came down to an average of about 8.5% for the year. And that was the decision taken by the management to spend aggressively on advertising in this quarter. And I think in that same range, we intend to continue this financial year at between 8.5% and 9%. And I have always maintained that given where we are and the way we are operating our Ethanol Division, we can maintain between 12% and 15% EBITDA, and there is a quarterly seasonality on the raw material prices as it is agri-based. So that is the range that we expect full year.
Vaishnavi Saboo
Okay. Okay. So the next question is in the FMCG segment. So FMCG growth has been challenging in general for the industry and us as well. So how hopeful are you on the FMCG growth and what percentage will come from distribution and geographical expansion or from new products or from price hike?
Akshay Modi
So we are absolutely confident of delivering growth on the Consumer Division because the sub-categories that we operate in, not only we have completely differentiated product offerings, but we are also leading the categories, and we have the highest share of voice in marketing. And as far as distribution is concerned, we have the width of distribution across the country and a couple of neighboring countries. Now we are looking at depth of distribution as well as product expansion. Some of the product categories that we entered into we are planning very aggressive growth, for example, the Pasta segment. I think growth will come from a 360-degree approach. There will be distribution expansion across categories. There will be core portfolio growth as well as new product development.
Vaishnavi Saboo
Okay, okay, thank you.
Akshay Modi
Thank you.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Praveen Sharma, an Individual Investor. Please go ahead.
Praveen Sharma
Hello? Am I audible?
Operator
Please go ahead. Yes.
Praveen Sharma
Yeah. Hello, Akshay. I think, first of all, a big congratulations for the team for delivering the numbers and such an excellent result and also very promising guidance for the next coming year. And I am sure you guys will be able to meet and exceed guidance for the next year. So big congratulations team for that and big applause.
My first question, I have a couple of questions. The first one is given provisions on one hand, we have Ethanol Division, which requires lightning with government, invent many operations and things like that. On the other hand, we have FMCG. We need to — as you said that we are planning to get deeper into distribution and product innovation and marketing and brand ambassador and things like that. So how is the team structured? Means, of course, you are at the top end, you will be managing. But just for my understanding, especially from Consumer, how the things are structured because people need, as far as the sales guys need, there have been constant pull around to deliver their numbers. So just for my understanding, below you how is the team structured?
Akshay Modi
So, good question. So in the Consumer Division, we are fully professionally run and we have a typical hierarchy like an FMCG company, where there is a Chief Marketing Officer, as well as vertical-wise sales heads, for example, organized retail and e-commerce, as well as traditional retail and institutional sales and then there are support functions. There is a supply chain, etc. So there is complete professionally driven teams in the Consumer Division. And in the Ethanol division, we have the head of the entire division, and under him, the full hierarchy is there. So I don’t see any leadership-wise challenges. We have freed up significant bandwidth to focus on both divisions.
Praveen Sharma
And you have a separate skill set for e-commerce, MT, and GT, and the region-wide sales head also like the distribution is very wide and deep, the sales team?
Akshay Modi
Yeah, absolutely. So it’s a typical FMCG structure where we have region heads, area heads, state-wise heads for GT. And in organized retail, we have key account managers for every account, such as Amazon, Flipkart, Blinkit, Zepto, etc.. And they are based in the city’s headquarters of those accounts. So that’s how we function.
Praveen Sharma
Okay, okay. Now my second question is regarding the reach of the products, especially the PIPO, Jynx and Pasta, of course, and oil is available on Blinkit and other e-commerce channels, but other product available as of now. Just wanted to know what is the issue there, BigBasket, Blinkit, Zepto, the PIPO range and the Jynx range?
Akshay Modi
So I think until FY ’24 you would have found only our oil products in some of the leading e-commerce players. In FY ’25 and then of course this quarter, we have struck deals with all the e-commerce partners for Pasta. And increasingly, you will see our Pasta distribution scale up in e-commerce as well as GT. And these are constant endeavors to add new products. So once we scale up Pasta, we will be adding the other products as well, like PIPO, because we have got a foothold in the food category and our relationships are the same now. o, we will be expanding even our food product distribution over the next few quarters.
Praveen Sharma
Great. Great. The third question is basically on the — this high value protein byproduct of Ethanol Division. Do we see any opportunities in the export market for the same and — or it is mostly a domestic? Because animal feed is now a big thing, big industry.
Akshay Modi
Yeah, absolutely. So we have done some value addition there. We have moved into a higher protein byproduct, which we have developed internally. And we partnered with some of the leading, not only poultry but also aqua feed manufacturers, some of the leading players and we’re supplying to them. And we are also exporting in the export markets. So for export markets there is a slightly longer lead — I mean, especially for developed markets, there is a longer lead time because you have to get the certifications, etc. So something has been done and currently the certifications are ongoing and we hope to start export soon.
Praveen Sharma
Great, because with the FTA with Australia and New Zealand and things like that, things should start moving because they are the big countries [Technical Issues] such products. Last question is on [Technical Issues]. We had…
Akshay Modi
Voice is breaking out there.
Praveen Sharma
Yeah, yeah. I’m sorry. Am I audible now?
Akshay Modi
Yes, please.
Praveen Sharma
Hello? Yeah, yeah. On the advertisement spending, do we intend to increase and how much typically percentage of the top line we plan to invest in advertisements and brand building this year?
Akshay Modi
So we have two types of advertising, there’s above the line and below the line. And while below the line, our advertising remains constant. We had scaled back our above the line advertising for the last two financial years. And in FY ’25, we have increased it by almost 30%, and we intend to double it in FY ’26. So above the line, we expect I think close to about 4% which has gone up to almost 7% in FY ’25, and we intend to maintain that or increase that further in FY ’26.
Praveen Sharma
Okay, okay, great and all the best.
Akshay Modi
This is only advertising, not promotions.
Praveen Sharma
Okay. Promotion is separate. Okay, okay, I got it. Okay. Thank you. All the best and good wishes.
Akshay Modi
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Anukool from InVed Research. Please go ahead.
Anukool Arora
Yeah. Hi, Akshay. I wanted to know like post expansion and given your guidance, what is the incremental revenue you see from the Ethanol Division.
Akshay Modi
Sure. So our total capex will go up to about INR250 crores, and yeah, we expect about a 3.4 times asset turn after expansion once we are fully operational.
Anukool Arora
And incremental EBITDA margins, EBITDA numbers do you see from the Ethanol Division?
Akshay Modi
Yeah, so like I said, there’s a range, there’s a quarterly seasonality in EBITDA and ethanol due to agri prices. So between 12% and 15%. So even if you see last financial year FY ’25, we started off with about 12% and Q4, we achieved over 14% EBITDA in ethanol.
Anukool Arora
Okay, okay. And one more question like you have been delivering solid sets in the Ethanol Division. So do you see like demerging the business like and creating value in the Ethanol Division?
Akshay Modi
So we’re aware of all the options but there are no plans at the moment and we’ll come back if it comes to it.
Anukool Arora
All right. Yeah. Thank you so much.
Akshay Modi
Thanks.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Manav Jain from JN Investment. Please go ahead.
Manav Jain
Hello, sir. Am I audible?
Operator
Yes, please go ahead.
Manav Jain
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. I had a couple of questions. My first question is sir, how did we manage to improve the net working capital which is currently at 66 days?
Akshay Modi
So the net working capital is basically comes from majorly two — the difference comes from two divisions. In the bulk oil business, we have had strict management practices where we’ve reduced our days massively by being very prudent and on the ethanol side, there is some amount of credit available on raw material purchase. And again, since we have the orders of ethanol for the entire year, we are almost working at nil inventory, maybe one day inventory at max of finished products.
Manav Jain
Okay, sir. Yes, and my second question is as you’ve given the guidance of INR850 crores to INR880 crores, could you please provide me with a breakdown into three segments?
Akshay Modi
We haven’t given that yet. We’ll come back with those numbers. Since the year has just started and maybe in the next quarter or two quarters, we’ll be giving the breakup.
Manav Jain
Sure, sir, thank you and all the best.
Akshay Modi
Thank you.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Suvankar Mallick [Phonetic] from SKS Capital. Please go ahead.
Suvankar Mallick
Am I audible?
Operator
Please be a little louder, Suvankar. Thank you.
Suvankar Mallick
Am I audible?
Operator
Your voice is not clear. Could you use the handset mode, please?
Suvankar Mallick
Yeah. I’m in handset mode. Am I audible? Can you hear me?
Operator
No, your voice is not clear. Could you please move to an area where there is better network coverage?
Suvankar Mallick
Yeah. Yeah. Now is it okay?
Operator
Yes, please. Go ahead.
Suvankar Mallick
Yeah. Yeah. So thank you for the opportunity. So if I go through your website, right, there are lots of brands I can see. But you have like given only two segments, one is Bulk and one is Branded, right? Can you just give me any — give me the breakup, right, which brand come under which bracket?
Akshay Modi
So our entire Consumer Division is housed as one division, which is our oil brand as well as food. And only the bulk business is clubbed under the Bulk Division.
Suvankar Mallick
Okay. Yeah, understood. Thank you.
Akshay Modi
Thank you.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Harsh from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Harsh Sheth
Yeah. Hi. Hello? Am I audible?
Operator
Yes. Please go ahead, Harsh.
Harsh Sheth
Yeah. Hi, thanks for the opportunity and congrats on great fiscal. So just a couple of questions and on ethanol specifically. So firstly with maize prices softening meaningfully and expected to ease further…
Akshay Modi
I’m sorry, your voice is a bit muffled. Could you please speak a bit louder?
Harsh Sheth
Yeah, hi. So just two questions on ethanol. So firstly, with maize prices softening meaningfully and expected to ease further post the Bihar harvest. So how should we think about the ethanol spreads going forward? I mean, industry level EBITDA per liter had compressed sharply from 7% [Phonetic] to 8% [Phonetic] to near breakeven levels over the last two years, three years. So are we now at the beginning of say margin recovery cycle?
Akshay Modi
Yes, I think that should be the case. I think if you see the year-wise seasonality Q4 and Q1 will traditionally be better margin quarters as compared to Q2 and then Q3 will be a recovery over Q2, getting better in Q4 as a massive paddy harvest comes through and then, of course, Q1 is a big maize harvest. So Q4 and Q1 will traditionally be the best quarters for grain ethanol.
Harsh Sheth
So what would be the procurement price at this point of time? I mean, how has it moved over say last two months, three months? I mean, if you can just give a sense of it.
Akshay Modi
So first the prices came down by roughly let’s say 10% when the paddy crop came.
Harsh Sheth
Okay.
Akshay Modi
And then the FCI rice policy came that I mentioned in my opening remarks, prices softened by another 8% to 10%. So broadly that is the number.
Harsh Sheth
Okay. And secondly on industry front. So with India nearing the 20% ethanol blending threshold, so how is the industry kind of calibrating capacity addition beyond this point? There’s some early talk about potential move towards 25% blending by 2030. But what would be your assessment of how the demand landscape evolves from here?
Akshay Modi
Sure. In the first half of the year, the blending percentage always seems high because sugar-based ethanol is also coming in. And in the latter half of the year, that number dropped sharply. So for example, last year, we were averaging 17%, 18% in the first five months and at the end of the year, we blended only 14.6% annually. So this year too we had about 19.8% in the first five months and I think in the second half, it will drop sharply. So on an annualized basis we are still not reaching 20%. So there will be some issues of the first few months of high ethanol supply and with petrol consumption growing at about 6% to 7% nationally on an annual basis, plus with the blending has increased from 20% to let’s say 22% and then 25% and 30%, so there’s still headroom for growth over the next few years.
Harsh Sheth
But do you see the blending percent to increase it to 20% to 25% or India adopting flexible fuel policy?
Akshay Modi
So from the government side and the industry side, all the efforts are on, and I would not like to speculate on what the policy is going to be. but definitely all the efforts are on from all aspects, increased blending, look at the technical aspect of that whether the cars can take it. Second is encourage flex fuel. I think flex hybrid is another really good solution for our country. As you can see some of the states have already reduced road tax on hybrid vehicles and flex hybrid might be the quick opportunity for our country to transition to a clean fuel.
Harsh Sheth
Sure. That’s helpful. Thanks and congrats once again.
Akshay Modi
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Karthik Nair [Phonetic] from KN [Phonetic] Broking. Please go ahead.
Karthik Nair
Hello? Am I audible?
Operator
Yes.
Karthik Nair
Sir, are we planning to set up our own manufacturing setup for popcorn and other non-oil products?
Akshay Modi
Currently, we are working on an asset-light model. Popcorn, we have a lease plant. And so it’s manufactured under our name but it’s a lease facility where we do not need to do a capex. And for Pasta, it’s an outright 3P model. So we’re working on an asset-light model at the moment. Once the volumes are significant enough to warrant the capex and our own plant, we consider them.
Karthik Nair
Okay, sir, thank you.
Akshay Modi
Thank you.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Ladies and gentlemen, as there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for the closing remarks.
Akshay Modi
Thank you, everyone. I hope we have been able to answer all your questions satisfactorily. However, if you need any further clarifications or want to know more about the Company, please contact SGA, our Investor Relations Advisors. Thank you once again for taking the time to join us during this call today. Have a nice day.
Operator
[Operator Closing Remarks]