Maruti Suzuki India Limited (NSE: MARUTI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call dated Jan. 29, 2025
Corporate Participants:
Pranav Ambaprasad — Assistant General Manager – Investor Relations
Rahul Bharti — Chief Investor Relations Officer and Executive Director, Corporate Affairs
Arnab Roy — Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Gunjan Prithyani — Analyst
Jinesh Gandhi — Analyst
Raghunandhan NL — Analyst
Binay Singh — Analyst
Pramod Amthe — Analyst
Pramod Kumar — Analyst
Nitij Mangal — Analyst
Kapil Singh — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Maruti Suzuki Q3 FY ’25 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, all participant line will be listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask question, after the presentation concludes. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Pranav from Maruti Suzuki. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Pranav Ambaprasad — Assistant General Manager – Investor Relations
Thank you, Sejal. Ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon once again. Welcome you all to the Q3 FY ’25 earnings call. May I introduce you to the management team from Maruti Suzuki. Today, we have with us our Chief Investor Relations Officer, Mr. Rahul Bharti; and CFO, Mr. Arnab Roy.
Before we begin, may I remind you of the safe harbor. We may be making some forward-looking statements that have to be understood in conjunction with uncertainty and the risks that the company faces. I also like to inform you that the call is being recorded and the audio call — audio recording and the transcript will be available at our website. Please note that in case of any inadvertent error during this live audio call, the transcript will be provided with the correct information. The con-call will begin with a brief statement on the performance and outlook of a business by the Chief Investor Relations Officer and Executive Officer, Corporate Affairs, Mr. Rahul Bharti, after which we’ll be happy to receive your questions.
I would now like to invite our CIRO, Mr. Rahul Bharti. Over to you, sir.
Rahul Bharti — Chief Investor Relations Officer and Executive Director, Corporate Affairs
Thank you, Pranav. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us.
I would start by remembering our beloved leader, Mr. Osamu Suzuki, Senior Advisor, Suzuki Motor Corporation, and Director and Honorary Chairman, Maruti Suzuki, who passed away in December ’24. As you would know, Mr. Suzuki was a visionary leader who made a major contribution to the global automobile industry.
In India, his foresight and leadership were instrumental in the formation of our company, Maruti Udyog Limited in ’81. With his vision, Mr. Suzuki played a pivotal role in realizing the dream of putting India on wheels by empowering millions of Indian families with affordable, reliable, efficient and good-quality cars. The government of India has posthumously conferred Padma Bhushan on him. This recognition inspires the company to build on his legacy and enhance India auto industry’s position in the global arena.
I’ll now share some business highlights, followed by the business performance of the company. Coming to business highlights, I’m happy to share that the company unveiled its first electric SUV, the e VITARA at the Bharat Mobility Global Expo 2025. Built on a new dedicated ground-up HEARTECT-e platform, the e VITARA offers superior performance and excellent range with uncompromised comfort and safety. It comes with highly efficient battery pack option to deliver more than 500 kilometers for 61-kilowatt hour on a single charge. The e VITARA is equipped with advanced technology for safety such as seven airbags as standard across the range, level two autonomous driving, next-gen Suzuki Connect with over 60 features and advanced structural design with energy absorbing battery pack mounting structure for enhanced safety.
To increase the adoption of EVs, we have come up with an e For Me initiative, which means that if any customer has any doubt whether he should purchase an electric car, we remind him that e is for me. Our goal is to create electric eco solutions for the customers. We’ll offer smart home chargers along with installation support, leverage our vast network to provide fast charging support in the top 100 cities in the first phase and then expand further. The idea is that within these cities, almost every 10 kilometers, a customer should find a charging point by Maruti Suzuki.
We are also preparing about 1,500 EV-enabled service workshops covering over 1,000 cities with specially trained manpower and special equipment to address all EV-related support, including charging. Additionally, we’ll also provide roadside assistance on a call of a phone — on a phone call all over India.
One of the major highlights of e VITARA is its export potential to leverage global economies of scale and concentrate manufacturing at a single location for the world, Maruti Suzuki will be the exclusive manufacturer of this strategic EV, the e VITARA for the world. This is expected to be a large volume manufacturing as in addition to domestic sales, it will have OEM sales and exports to about 100 countries, exemplifying the excellence of Make in India. The production of e VITARA will begin soon, and the company aspires to be the largest manufacturer of EVs in India within the first year of start of production.
I now come to the all-new Dzire, which we launched in November with unmatched style and unrivaled performance. Crafted with the all-new progressive styling, the all-new Dzire is loaded with a host of segment-first features such as electric sunroof, 360 HD view camera, Suzuki Connect and all-new LED crystal vision headlamps. It is equipped with 15-plus top-of-the-line safety features, including six airbags, three-point ELR seatbelts, electronic stability program with Hill Hold Assist, ABS with EBD, ISOFIX child seat anchorages as standard across all variants. The all-new Dzire is rated five-star in safety. It is powered by one of the world’s most thermal-efficient Z Series 1.2-liter engine, making it India’s most fuel-efficient sedan.
I’m delighted to share that India’s most desired sedan, Maruti Suzuki Dzire clocked 3 million production milestone in December ’24. In December, again, Maruti Suzuki achieved a historic production milestone of 2 million units in a calendar year. So far, the company is the only passenger vehicle manufacturer in India to attain this landmark. Recently, Maruti Suzuki also celebrated 25 remarkable years of the WagonR in India. With over 3.2 million happy customers, WagonR is a favorite amongst first-time buyers and repeat customers alike. The consumer preference towards CNG vehicles continues to increase. In quarter three of this fiscal, every one in three cars sold by the company in the domestic market was a CNG vehicle.
Coming to the business performance in the third quarter, the company sold a total of 566,213 vehicles during the quarter. The sales volume in the domestic market was at 466,993 vehicles, a growth of 8.7% over the same period previous year. The company exported 99,220 vehicles, which is the highest ever in any quarter. The growth in export sales was about 38%. On the back of consumer sentiment during the festive season, coupled with increased sales promotion, the demand for cars improved in the third quarter.
During the quarter, the company continued to create an excitement in the market by introducing the all-new Dzire, and significantly increased its efforts to reach out to customers. Because of these efforts, the company could maximize the opportunity in the market and achieved highest ever retail sales in the third quarter. It is to be noted that till the first half of this fiscal, the growth in retail sales was just about 0.4% over the same period previous year. Owing to healthy retail sales in Q3, the cumulative growth in retail sales in the first nine months of this fiscal has improved to 3.5% over the same period previous year. The company ended this quarter with a network stock of only about nine days.
On exports, the company continued to maintain a healthy growth in sales volume. In quarter three, nearly one in every two cars exported from the country was from Maruti Suzuki. The company commanded nearly 49% share of India’s total passenger vehicle exports in Q3 FY ’25.
Coming to the financial results in quarter three, during the quarter, the company registered highest ever net sales of about INR368 billion against INR318.6 billion in the same period the previous year. The net profit for the quarter was INR35.25 billion, an increase of 12.6% over INR31.3 billion in quarter three of the previous year.
Since investors also look for a sequential comparison, I’ll share. On a sequential basis, the operating profit margin EBIT has come down to 10% of net sales in Q3 compared to 10.3% in Q2. The sales promotion expense was higher by 20 basis points over Q2, largely on account of seasonality owing to increased discounts in Q3. The higher advertisement expenses mainly on account of new model launch such as the all-new Dzire and campaigns around the e VITARA have affected the operating margin by about 40 basis points over Q2.
Forex movement was adverse in this quarter by about 20 basis points, mostly due to unfavorable yen. The depreciation expense increased by 20 basis points, largely on account of capitalization of some of the facilities in the upcoming greenfield plant at Kharkhoda. These adverse expenses were partially offset by favorable commodity prices of about 40 basis points and favorable operating leverage of 30 basis points. I would also like to flag for analysts that our subsidiary, SMG has earned an interest income on their cash of about INR57 crores at the PAT level, which can be considered in addition to our standalone PAT, which is not included in our standalone PAT.
Coming to the highlights of the financial results in the nine months, April to December, the company recorded its highest ever nine monthly sales volume, net sales and net profit. The company sold a total of 1,629,631 units during the period, a growth of 5% over the same period previous year. Sales in the domestic market stood at 1,382,135 units and exports at 247,496 units. The company registered net sales of about INR1,063 billion, in this period as compared to about INR982 billion in the same period previous year. The company made a net profit of about INR102.4 billion in this period as against INR93.3 billion in the same period previous year.
We are now ready to take your questions, feedback and any other observations that you may have. Thank you.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Gunjan from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Gunjan Prithyani
Yeah, hi, team. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is on the demand environment. I mean, you did allude to sentiment improving in quarter three during festive year-end. Could you just talk about on the ground, what are you sensing? Is it fundamentally we’ve seen things improve? And how should we think about the growth outlook going into fiscal ’26 for the industry?
Rahul Bharti
See, in the first nine months of the year, on a retail level, we have done about 3.5% growth. We expect this to continue through the fourth quarter also. The next year is slightly premature to talk about because the whole industry will meet somewhere at the end of February to come out with a consensus figure estimate for the growth. But it’s known that the demand scenario is generally subdued and weak. It’s a reality that we have to live with for some time.
Gunjan Prithyani
And what were the actual retails in the quarter three for Maruti? I mean, is it — if I just look at quarter three?
Rahul Bharti
About 573,000 approximately.
Gunjan Prithyani
Okay. Got it. And my second question was on the margin. Thanks for providing those quarter-on-quarter changes that have happened. Just to be clear, when you say sales promotions increased by 20 basis points, was that the discounting increase quarter-on-quarter? Or how should I read this change in discounts?
Arnab Roy
Yes, Arnab, this side. So the discount for the quarter was INR30,999, so around INR31,000, which is almost similar to what was there last quarter. Last quarter was about INR29,300, so not much difference in the discount.
Gunjan Prithyani
Okay. Got it. And there is FX and some of these one-off costs that you called out, ad spend, Dzire launch, etc. Is there any element that we should consider as non-recurring going into quarter four? If I think about the — I mean, just trying to think about the trajectory from quarter three to next one or two quarters, what elements can reverse or any tailwinds that we should keep in mind?
Arnab Roy
Yes. There is nothing significant. There are small positives and negatives. But overall, there is nothing significant to call out for.
Gunjan Prithyani
Okay. Got it. And last question, just price hikes, if you can talk about what are the sort of price hikes we’ve taken — we are looking to take from Feb onwards?
Rahul Bharti
So we’ve recently announced a price hike. It’s a small one. It’s just about 30 basis points on our net sales. There are inflationary pressures and all kinds of cost increases to cover. Of course, we try to minimize the impact to the market. So as and when we feel the pressure that cannot be offset by cost reduction in-house, we will have to pass on to the market.
Gunjan Prithyani
Okay. Got it. I’ll join back the queue. Thank you.
Rahul Bharti
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Jinesh Gandhi from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Jinesh Gandhi
Yes, hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Quickly on the demand side. So while we are expecting about 3.5%, 4% kind of a growth in fourth quarter, are we seeing divergent trends in rural versus urban? Many of the other segments are seeing weakness in the urban markets, but rural is doing well. Is the same the case for us?
Rahul Bharti
Broadly, the past trend has been continuing, which is that the rural has been doing better than urban. And so in quarter three, the rural growth was about 15%, urban was about 2.5%. This is retail because rural, you can ascertain only at the retail level and leading to an aggregate of about 8.3% growth in retail in the third quarter. So urban is also positive, but lower than rural.
Jinesh Gandhi
Got it. Got it. And second question pertains to — you talked about EV exports to be a large volume driver. So do we expect it to be our largest exported model from India given that it will be single manufacturing location for us, for Suzuki and Toyota? Should it be our best-selling export model now?
Rahul Bharti
So it’s difficult to predict volumes because there are about 100 countries of the world that we are planning to export. And EV itself, it’s a very dynamic story, not just in India and all over the world. But we are prepared, and we will try to maximize our volumes.
Jinesh Gandhi
Got it. Got it. And by when our Kharkhoda plant will start operations, it was in fourth quarter FY ’25 or it’s a bit delayed?
Rahul Bharti
Hopefully, within this fourth quarter FY ’25.
Jinesh Gandhi
Got it. And lastly, what was our export revenues for the quarter? That’s my last question.
Arnab Roy
Yes. It’s about INR6,500 crores approximately.
Jinesh Gandhi
Got it. Great. Thanks and all the best.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Raghunandhan from Nuvama Research. Please go ahead.
Raghunandhan NL
Congratulations, sir, on the e VITARA launch. Firstly, for the EV, there are a lot of features packed into it. Can you talk about the efforts in terms of ensuring an optimized cost structure? And in future, how do you plan to continue the journey to bring down the cost down further?
Rahul Bharti
See, this is a continuous and perennial effort of all our engineers and of course, at the global level also in this particular model. The one part that is good is we are reaping global economies of scale. And of course, all the efforts, both at Maruti level and at Suzuki level have gone into it. Let us see how we fare on this.
Raghunandhan NL
As a continuation, how would you see EBIT per vehicle? And by when do you see EBIT per vehicle matching that of ICE? Any kind of targets you would have in terms of scale or localization to achieve a similar kind of profitability?
Rahul Bharti
I missed your question. What exactly per vehicle?
Raghunandhan NL
So the profitability per vehicle for an EV, when do you see it matching with that of an ICE? And for something that to happen, what kind of scale or localization you would need to achieve?
Rahul Bharti
We have to be slightly realistic here. If the profit of an EV was equal to that of an ICE, why would the government support so much at the center level and the state level. The very fact that there is a drastic reduction in GST, there are so many subsidies at different levels, demand side, supply side means that there is a difference. So for a long time, it’s not going to happen.
Our effort is to minimize cost so that we are able to satisfy all stakeholders, whether it is investors or society or customers. So we have to strike a balance and cost reduction is the way. But we have to be conscious that the customer gets confidence from range. So at least our first product has a high range and high range means high specs. So that raises the cost. So it’s a multivariable equation that we have to continuously work on. And we’ll play as we go along the way.
Raghunandhan NL
Fair point, sir. So the first step is to focus on acceptability and over a period of time, the cost savings will come into play. Last question…
Rahul Bharti
[Indecipherable] is the first thing we would like to address.
Raghunandhan NL
Got it, sir. Last question. During December month, hatchbacks witnessed positive growth. Your thoughts on how you see this recovery and the factors driving the recovery going forward?
Rahul Bharti
See, the quarter was still not positive on hatch. So it was — the entry hatch had a degrowth. The mid-hatch was nearly flat. The premium hatch did have some growth. So there’s a clear trend that the upper segments are doing good, but the lower segments are not. So this is still a phenomena that remains a challenge, and we’ll have to keep addressing it in the future also.
Raghunandhan NL
Got it, sir. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Binay Singh from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Binay Singh
Hi, team. Congratulations, good set of earnings considering the environment we are in. Just on the electric vehicle, will you be eligible for the PLI incentive? And linked to that, the PLI incentive, as I understand, is on production, right? So it doesn’t matter whether you sell in India or overseas, it will be on production that you’re doing. So could you share your thoughts on that?
Rahul Bharti
We are evaluating this at the moment. So when we come closer and we work our numbers, we’ll be in a better position to report. I missed your second question.
Binay Singh
That the production-linked incentive is on total volumes produced, right? So even if you’re exporting it, once you qualify and you are, then you will get the PLI.
Rahul Bharti
Yes, it is on exports also.
Binay Singh
And secondly, on the CAFE norms, any update on that? Is the timeline still the same? Or any read across that you have from the government on the CAFE III?
Rahul Bharti
Industry body SIAM is in discussion with the government on this. And as and when there are stakeholder consultations as an industry body, SIAM, will participate.
Binay Singh
And lastly, just on electric vehicle, what are the next timelines to watch? Like when is the production starting, export dispatches, domestic price announcement? Like any sort of time lines, you could share?
Rahul Bharti
All these in the next few months.
Binay Singh
Great, great team. Best wishes for the coming year.
Rahul Bharti
Thank you.
Operator
The next question is from the line of Pramod Amthe from InCred Equities. Please go ahead.
Pramod Amthe
Yes, hi. Rahul, the first question with regard to the exports. They have been on a phenomenal rise. Can you give some color in terms of what has driven it? Or is it more the end market demand? Or what is the effort given to achieve this, one? Second, can you give us a country mix, how it has changed in nine months versus last year?
Rahul Bharti
Exports has been a very happy story for us, and it has been a consistent effort over many years, and it is now showing good results. The growth has been fairly distributed across regions. We’ve had excellent growth in Africa, in Latin America. Even in Middle East, the number is excellent, the overall share and in ASEAN, it’s well spread out across regions. And I think we have got excellent traction in Latin America, maybe because of some more model launches. And we are getting some good customer response for our models in these markets.
I think it’s a phenomenon of having the right enablers in place, the dealership network, the customer-friendly practices, the customer reach-out efforts, enabling schemes like finance, customer complaint handling system, more model launches, and of course, the density of the network and more model launches. So it’s working well. It’s very interesting that in Q3, we have exported a number which just about four years ago, we exported in one year. So in one quarter, we have done what we used to do in one year.
Pramod Amthe
That I understand because from Jan to December, you literally doubled the export volumes on a monthly basis.
Rahul Bharti
In Q3, it was almost very close to a lakh, 99,000 plus and we were doing 95,000 in the pre-COVID years.
Pramod Amthe
Right. Congrats on that. Second one is with regard to EVs. First, in terms of buyer profile, how are you looking at in terms of buyer profile for EVs as and when you launch it in India? And is there anything you need to do at the sales outlets at NEXA to address the type of customers who will come for EVs?
Rahul Bharti
So given the premium positioning of this, it’s a ground-up — it’s not an ICE engine convert. It’s a ground-up platform with many advanced safety features, seven airbags, etc. 500-plus kilometer range and the fact that we are exporting it to 100 countries of the world, it gives a lot of confidence to the customers. So certainly, it’s a premium product. And therefore, NEXA was the right positioning for this.
What we have to do is at least in the service level, people have to be trained to handle high voltage. So we have done high-voltage courses for our service mechanics. We have an on-road roadside assistance. You just wherever you are stranded for whatever reason, it could be as small as a flat, I mean you’ve got a puncher, our on-road assistance, we will reach you. We have a service-on-wheels concept. So of course, chargings, fast chargers at these points — so all these and knowledgeable people to answer the customers’ queries. These are the preparations that we have done.
Pramod Amthe
Sure. And just to add on to that, considering that there is a more software involvement in these products and the initial feedback from many of the early launches have been that handling on the software issues from the customer point of view has been a big challenge. Are you taking any extra precaution to address this at your service levels?
Rahul Bharti
What we have done is before launching this product, we did a very careful analysis of all the problems in existing models that the customers were facing, and there were quite a number of them. And we found that reliability is one big factor. And the Suzuki name is synonymous with reliability over all these years. So we have taken a lot of pains to ensure that these problems do not occur, and there is very strong service support. And I believe that will help in increasing EV adoption in the country also.
Pramod Amthe
Sure. And the last question is with regard to the November announcement, which you made about the Toyota product, the EV product to be produced in the India plant. This is going to be — so what has led to clinching this new product in your portfolio for production? And in terms — is it because of the amount of back-end work locally have done in the product? And is it going to be completely different than the existing platform? Or how to look at a long-term production capability of India into the EV space?
Rahul Bharti
Sorry, you’re talking about the e VITARA?
Pramod Amthe
No, November, you announced Toyota giving a further order, right, if I’m not wrong. There was a press release given out to BSE. Is it the e VITARA or the one which was also displayed in the current auto expo?
Rahul Bharti
So it was about this EV now, the e VITARA.
Pramod Amthe
But it looks to be on a longer wheel base than the existing one.
Rahul Bharti
Okay. Let me clarify the e VITARA is a fresh platform altogether. Therefore, the wheel base is also different. It is 2,700 mm. The e VITARA and the current Grand Vitara are — in terms of engineering, the product is different. The e VITARA is on a fresh platform, designed afresh. And therefore, the wheel base is higher than the Grand Vitara.
Pramod Amthe
Okay, sure. Maybe I’ll discuss this later on with you on that. Sure. Thanks and all the best, sir.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pramod Kumar from UBS Securities. Please go ahead.
Pramod Kumar
Yes. Thanks a lot for the opportunity, Rahul, sir. Sir, my first question is on the Dzire. So just wanted to understand, it’s a model in the fourth generation, has been around forever. But the demand response, what we pick up talking to dealers and seeing the Internet forum is that there’s been a big step-up in booking numbers after the launch. So if you can just help us understand what’s been the kind of — given the data you have, what’s the kind of step-up in booking velocity what you’ve seen for the new Dzire versus the outgoing Dzire? And what is the kind of — where are the additional customers coming in from? Is it like cannibalizing existing Maruti products? Or if there’s a change in the profile of the buyer, what you’re seeing incrementally?
And also, what does it mean internally as a feedback that what is kind of working for the consumer? Because if it’s five-star safety or features, definitely, you can do that with more models incrementally with the upgrades. And just trying to understand, is there the positive feedback and being used internally to kind of expedite products which are more aligned with the consumer choice? So I was just trying to understand what has led to that kind of sharp surge? And what can we do to capitalize on this for our other models, sir? That would be the first question.
Rahul Bharti
Sure. So, as you have rightly mentioned, the Dzire has been a very powerful product. Just one sedan from Maruti has done more volumes than all other sedans by the entire industry put together, more than 50% in the sedan share. And it is building on that. So the new Dzire, it’s still very recent, but the new Dzire is doing more numbers than the earlier Dzire. And of course, we have around 20,000 pending bookings. You asked about segment share. The interesting part is that the top variant, the ZXI and the ZXI Plus, they were at about 19% of the total book. Now we have 37% bookings in these top variants. So it’s more than double now. So it appears that customers seem to have taken on the new looks and the new features very well. On top of that, we have the world’s most thermal-efficient engine, delivering more than 25 kilometers per liter. So it has a very strong traction in the market.
Pramod Kumar
Rahul, sir, just trying to understand, as in, given the response, are we trying to kind of expedite those changes into new models because Swift is based on the same Dzire platform? So with a bit of a tweak, that can be a five-star safety product as well. And if I’m not wrong, based on the social media post, it’s like the five-star safety is a big clincher for the consumer. So I’m just trying to understand how well can we use this — the customer response to kind of tweak our product plans and any plans of probably a milestone in terms of more models being having five-star safety? Anything which you can share on that count?
Rahul Bharti
Okay. So we have always been very focused on safety. We’ve provided many features and many models, which go well beyond compliance. This electronic stability program with electronic brakeforce distribution, heads-up display, 360-degree camera, hill hold assist and the seat anchorages, seven airbags in case of our recent e VITARA. What we have also done is we have offered many of our other models to BNCAP for testing, and we are expecting the results in some time. We’ll keep sharing as we go along. But product features, we are studying the market very closely in every segment, whatever the customer wants, our design engineers will be very happy to deliver the best in those segments using the best technologies.
Pramod Kumar
Okay. Thanks a lot. And on the export side, given that the current average discount for you at a corporate level is 4% plus, not wrong to assume that for small cars, the discounting intensity is probably 6%, 7% or even higher. With that level of discounting in the domestic market, is it fair to assume that export is no longer for the same model dilutive? Because we’ve seen with export share rising, we have not seen any negative impact as such on profitability. While historically, export used to have a lower margin. But in the current context, is it fair to assume that exports necessarily rising is probably a good thing for margins and overall profitability than a drag? Is the understanding right, sir?
Rahul Bharti
So the advantage of exporting to 100 countries of the world is that you can fairly aggregate your — and you can fairly spread out your risk. So that is why we are moving in a healthy way.
Pramod Kumar
On the profitability comparable as in the domestic for our same model?
Rahul Bharti
We never comment on segment-wise or specific product-wise profitability, but we would not have gone ahead with such a large percentage of our portfolio if it was loss-making or low profit-making, etc.
Pramod Kumar
And sir, given that you said that end of January — end of December, the dealer inventory was down to nine days, is it fair to assume that we are looking at a very robust 4Q as well in terms of dispatches and directionally reasonably better dispatches than March — than the December quarter? And also, any expectations around budgets from your end? Or what is the ask from the industry body or from Maruti to the government with the budget kind of just around the corner?
Rahul Bharti
Sorry, I missed your first question?
Pramod Kumar
On the 4Q dispatch, 4Q outlook, sir, on dispatches, yes.
Rahul Bharti
I mentioned that our retail sales is expected to follow the same trend as the first nine months, which is around 3.5% growth even in Q4. So according to that — and of course, we would like to enter the new year — new financial year with less inventory, we would like to enter light. And on the union budget, I think most of the activities that take place, which are consequential to the auto industry are now in GST. But if there is any general improveme0nt in the consumption momentum in the country, that would be good for all. What is good for India is good for Maruti, and I strongly believe that. And the reverse also, what is good for Maruti is good for India. So if the economy does well, if consumption grows, it will be good for us also.
Pramod Kumar
Sounds good, sir. Thanks a lot and wish you all the best. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitij Mangal from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Nitij Mangal
Hi, good evening. Thanks for taking my question. Can you talk a little bit about demand trends in rural in terms of the mix of hatchback versus SUV? So how is that mix, let’s say, in urban versus rural? And how is that changing over the years, especially on the rural side?
Rahul Bharti
Increasingly, we are seeing that rural is — the trends are coming closer to urban also. But of course, we have got good traction for lower models — for smaller models like Alto. And rural is doing good in terms of growth, better than urban. So that is good. It serves as a derisking for India consumption, not just for cars, but for all commodities.
Nitij Mangal
Thanks. Is it possible to share any number in terms of what is the percentage of SUV in your rural sales today?
Rahul Bharti
We’ll just get the numbers, and will come in sometime.
Nitij Mangal
Sure, thanks. And I had one more question. So you have extremely low inventories and discounts still seem to be on the higher side. So as you now progress through the next few months and all, do you see a meaningful dip in discount levels?
Rahul Bharti
It’s very difficult to predict this. In fact, we’ve just taken a price increase. So a small price increase, and we may — we’ll have to balance all factors. So it’s the result of many, many factors. So difficult to predict discounts.
Nitij Mangal
Okay, sure. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kapil Singh from Nomura. Please go ahead.
Kapil Singh
Hi, good evening, sir. Firstly, on the e VITARA, just wanted to ask if you’ve identified any top four, five target countries in Europe or other regions of the world that you think has got significant potential. And Suzuki, you were setting up a battery plant in Hansalpur, I think. So any update on that? And what will be the advantages of Maruti when it starts sourcing cells from there?
Rahul Bharti
So Europe pattern, we are largely aware which are the countries which are larger markets in EV than others. Of course, our efforts will be to maximize our volumes across all countries. Japan is another market that we will be — it’s Suzuki’s home market that we will be targeting. And wherever the potential is, we would like to maximize our sales. Of course, we — it depends on our distributor network also. We will be doing other markets also, for example, Indonesia. There are a total of about 100 countries. Our effort is to maximize volume across all these countries. Battery, at least at SOP, it will be imported for some time. Later, we’ll look at the status when is the localization possible.
Kapil Singh
And secondly, just on the cost outlook, if you could share more broadly for the next year, are there any cost inflations to keep in mind for next year? And also, how do you think about the fact that there is a capacity expansion happening across many of the leading OEMs next year? Do you sense that competitive intensity could be higher next year?
Rahul Bharti
See, I’ll take your second question first. Competitive intensity is a reality, and it is something to be welcomed, not to be scared of because it helps to bring out the best and it is best for the consumer. As a result, the whole country, the standard moves up. So it’s a very happy situation. And maybe it helps expand the market also. So that’s a positive. Of course, it remains uncertain. You are aware of our cost structure, commodity and forex rates. So we’ll have to look at the — look at these factors as we go along. And of course, operating leverage, these are the margin drivers.
Kapil Singh
Understood. And on CAFE, just one CAFE III basically, just wanted to understand from — because Maruti is doing much better than the competition, right? So when we move to CAFE III in terms of EV penetration, what is the broad range that Maruti would need to have to meet the CAFE III norms, if you have any broad calculations in mind?
Rahul Bharti
The CAFE III norms are yet to be announced. So when they are announced, we will have a product mix — a technology mix, so to say. The good part is that Maruti Suzuki is present in all technologies, whether it is BEV or HEV or natural gas or biofuels, flex fuel, all technologies we are present. So we will have sufficient agility to meet these norms.
Kapil Singh
Okay, excellent. Thank you and wish you all the best.
Rahul Bharti
Thank you.
Operator
[Operator Closing Remarks]