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Lemon Tree Hotels Limited (LEMONTREE) Q2 FY23 Earnings Concall Transcript

LEMONTREE Earnings Concall - Final Transcript

Lemon Tree Hotels Limited (NSE:LEMONTREE) Q2 FY23 Earnings Concall dated Nov. 14, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Kapil SharmaChief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Aesha ShahCDR India — Analyst

Archana GudeIDBI Capital — Analyst

Nihal JhamNoVama — Analyst

KaranKhannaAmbit Capital — Analyst

Sumant KumarMotilal Oswal — Analyst

Sanjaya SatapathyAmpersand Capital Trust — Analyst

Venil ShahPrabhudas Lilladher — Analyst

Prateek KumarJefferies — Analyst

RajivDAM Capital — Analyst

Pallavi DeshpandeSameeksha Capital — Analyst

Kushal ShahIndividual Investor — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Lemon Tree Hotels Limited Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I now hand the conference over to Ms. Aesha Shah from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you ma’am.

Aesha ShahCDR India — Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Lemon Tree Hotels Q2 and H1 FY’23 earnings conference call. We have with us today Mr. Patanjali Keswani, Chairman and Managing Director; Mr. Kapil Sharma, Chief Financial Officer; and Mr. Vikramjit Singh, President of the company.

We would like to begin the call with brief opening remarks from the management, following which we’ll have the forum open for an interactive question-and-answer session.

Before we start. I would like to point out that some statements made in today’s call may be forward-looking in nature and a disclaimer to this effect has been included in the result presentation that was shared with you earler.

I would now request Mr. Keswani to make his opening remarks. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone and thank you for joining us on the call. While we covered in the quarterly business highlights in the financial performance for Q2 with you, post which we’ll open the forum for your questions and suggestions.

This quarter we have [Indecipherable] our presentation. But on the comparison with Q2 FY’20 to highlight the impact of the subsea JV in the costs [Indecipherable] post COVID. Q2 FY ’23, so further rise in ARR while occupancy remained in-line with the previous quarter due to the normal seasonal nature of the hotel business.

Total revenues for Q2 FY’23 stood at INR197.4 crores, which is 28% up versus Q2 FY ’20 and 3% up on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Net EBITDA margin remained at 47.8% which is 1567 bps above Q2 FY ’20, and down 38 bps on a Q-on-Q basis. This very slight fall was due to a rise in payroll costs as our hotels [Indecipherable] prepare for Q2 FY’20 which typically has higher occupancies.

The PAT for The quarter stands at INR19.4 crores which is up 742% when compared with Q2 FY ’20 and 43% up on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Despite occupancy not recovering to pre-COVID levels, Q2 FY ’23 has recorded it the best gross ARR, EBITDA and PAT in the last 14 preceding quarters.

Demand from corporate travel remains robust and it continues to be the highest contributor to room nights sold. That is 44% with the revenue-share of 41%. Corporate travel along with airline and travel trade contributes 55% of room nights and 52% given the revenue. The contribution on the retail segment has grown significantly. It has contribution towards room nights sorted up 5 percentage points to 45% versus Q2 FY’20 and revenue-share is 7 percentage points to 48% versus Q2 FY’20.

In terms of future demand, we see a significant improvement in consumer sentiments. Corporate travel continued to gain traction. We anticipate that the resumption will strengthen even further in the coming quarters. The gross ARR stands at 4917 which is up 19% versus Q2 ’20 and up 2% on a Q-on-Q basis.

Our focus on cost optimization has translated into an expansion as EBITDA by 1567 bps versus Q2 FY’20 with reduction of 567 bps in payroll, 239 bps in raw-material costs, 127 bps in HRT[Phonetic] and 623 bps in other expenses, [Indecipherable] We are happy to share that we have expanded our presence with the signing of five new hotels in Delhi, Rajkot, Goa, Erode and [Indecipherable] and two hotels [Indecipherable] and Vishakhapattnam and Lemon Tree Hotel in Mumbai in [Indecipherable] were operationalized in October ’22.

Our current operational inventory comprises 85 hotels and about 8,300 rooms with another 2,600 rooms in the pipeline. And based on the current pipeline, by 2025, our total operational inventory will be approximately 10,900 rooms and 115 hotels. Compared to industry, Lemon Tree fills two hotels, RevPAR grew 14% versus Q2 FY’20 while the industry grew 7% in the same-period. Lemon Tree same-store hotels recovered faster than the industry in Q2 FY ’23 versus Q2 FY ’20 in Mumbai, Hyderabad, Delhi, Bangalore, Pune Gurgaon and Chennai.

Diversity of team and then the inclusion is one of the key pillars of our competition. We’ve been actively engaging with differently abled [Indecipherable] socially or geographically challenged individuals over the year. As we look-forward, we aim to have about 30% of them on team by FY ’26.

With this, I come to the end of my opening remarks and over to the moderator.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you very much, sir. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Archana Gude from IDBI Capital. Please go ahead.

Archana GudeIDBI Capital — Analyst

Hi, sir, good afternoon, and congrats on good set of numbers. And thank you for this opportunity. I have two-three questions. Sir, firstly on the occupancy part, so I’m referring to slide number 12 of our presentation, so it seems this healthy improvement for us in Mumbai and Pune when I compare to Q2 FY’20 in terms of occupancy, we’re still in our major markets we have yet to reach Q2 FY ’22 levels.

My question to you is, is there any structural change in these markets in terms of competition or demand is subdued and it may take a while to reach to earlier levels?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Well, actually the market has not changed nor is it. I mean, I see no fundamental changed. What has happened is that the pickup of — see, you look at our business, there is one segment which is pure retail, which is like online travel agents and web and direct bookings with our hotels and one is the corporate travel trade and– what one would call the airline segment.

So, what we find is that, if you look at our occupancy, our occupancy vis a vis Q2 ’20 is down by about 8 percentage points. But the number of rooms that we have operationalized has gone up. So in Q2 FY ’20 we had about approximately 3,975 owned and leased rooms which today is about 5,100. So the number of rooms increased by over a 1,000 rooms. And therefore, the actual demand for rooms, if you look at it from a from an aggregate basis, has shrunk by about 500 rooms — room nights per day and that is entirely on account of corporate.

So what we’re finding is that in some key markets like Gurgaon and in Bangalore which are very-very MNC-heavy demand markets, because while 55% of our national demand is corporate and travel-related so on, it is much higher in Bangalore and Gurgaon and we have a disproportionately high share of inventory there, which is about 1300-1400 rooms, about 25% of our inventory. There the corporate demand has not reached pre-COVID levels yet, and that was really occur in each, which is why there is slightly skewed perspective as you mentioned.

But. I have no doubt it it will come back to full normal as in pre-COVID.

Archana GudeIDBI Capital — Analyst

Sure, sir. Sr, secondly on this Odisha, Udaipur, when I look at the numbers, the numbers are still subdued and so — like how, has been October for us and how the wedding season looking for our Udaipur hotels.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

So you know as I’ve mentioned earlier, Archana, I’m trying to [Indecipherable] in this market and since it’s a very first HoReCa and second one which is managed that opened [Indecipherable] — I’m trying to position this brand, right, because our plans in this brand are actually very large. So I’m — as I said, this is our first summer with HoReCa because we opened just before COVID and this is a journey of discovery for us.

So. I am aware — I mean, as I said earlier also in conference call and raising the prices, I want to see how the market accepts the bag and we are doing still very well in terms of revenue and in terms of EBITDA.

Perhaps we could do a better occupancy either in winter, if we drop the price but that’s not our strategy right now. So as you will notice throughout, our intention is really to maximize on revenue per available room. This is actual return per room. And that requires you to play with the two levers the pricing and occupancy. So, sometimes you will trade-off of on occupancy y keeping a higher price in order to maximize at par.

Archana GudeIDBI Capital — Analyst

Sure, sir. And lastly on HoReCa Mumbai, sir, so should we expect some cost escalation during the prices of majority of the costs have substantially gone up recently. So should we go…..

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

You know, if you look at our cost structure, we are pretty good at controlling costs. So we have given an indication that we will cost approximately by INR950 crores to business hotel. And fact I said between INR950 crore maximum to INR1000 crore but I think we will be still at INR950 crore and we will open it in Q3 next year. So as far as the cost structure goes and the target goes, we are still very much there.

And, there is a change it will not be material. It might be 1% – 1.5% but it won’t be so much.

Archana GudeIDBI Capital — Analyst

Sure, sir. Sir, thank you so much and all the best.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Nihal Jham from NoVama [Phonetic]. Please go ahead.

Nihal JhamNoVama — Analyst

Yes, thank you so much and congratulations on the performance. Sir, couple of questions from my side. First was that, has the trend that we’ve seen September continued ahead in October and November also, and based on the business on books that you’re currently seeing for the H2 part of the year.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Okay. Nihal, This year seasonal business, normally, H1 is lower in occupancy — lower and demand and therefore lower insights, they need to. That’s always the case. And within H1 and H2, typically the high-demand in H1 is in the first-quarter. It is seasonally a little weaker in the second-quarter, though I know we have actually done better. Then the third quarter is better than the second-quarter but not as good as the fourth quarter, because in the third quarter, in October for example this year, you have what’s called Dusshehra, Diwali, so on and so forth.

So for business hotel heavy company like we are where about 85% of our inventories business hotels, especially Diwali and Dusshehra are periods when you do relatively lower occupancy. So as of now and I’m talking midNovember, things have gone exactly as we anticipated which is October would be weak and November will be very strong.

So H2 looks to be, or let me say Q3 looks to be just as we anticipated and Q4, based on advanced demand, also looks to be about what we thought it would be. So broadly in H2, will do anywhere from. 115% to hundred and — it could be depending on how much — how well, you do, 130%, 140% of the revenues during H1. So we do a INR100 crore but in H1 you can do anywhere from INR115 crore to INR140 crore in H2.

And. I don’t want to give an exact number, because. I have already given the guidance on the full-year. But it’s as we expected and perhaps slightly better.

Nihal JhamNoVama — Analyst

That is helpful, sir. The second question was that, you did allude in the last call that incrementally you are looking at pricing rooms, right, even if there is a slight loss in occupancy. And I think the results are anyway also reflecting that.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No, the result will show you in Q2. [Speech Overlap] Exactly what I said.

Nihal JhamNoVama — Analyst

Yeah, absolutely. But just, I had an observation on Red Fox for specifically where the pricing is much higher while say for the brand like Lemon Tree, Lemon Tree Premier, there is still a pricing room in terms of the customer set, but does for Red Fox which is a value-focused brand from our side, this kind of an aggressive pricing change, the mix of the brand or ideally would it be fair to say that going for pricing in the Red Fox brand is the right way ahead for you?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

So, you know, you are asking actually a question, I would expect Director of my company to ask me. So let me be specific here, see, Red Fox is that, you’re right, it’s a value brand but the reality is that it had a very low-base in the past. So if we look Q2 ’20 in — on slide 11, you would see that it was priced at, you know, at INR3,000 rupees and all we’ve done is we’ve kind of re-priced it now in-line with what the replacement cost of these asset should be.

So it is — these assets are typically at 50% of the cost of sale and inventory which is why we look at the EBITDA per room. We’ve tried to bring the EBITDA up in these hotels and as you will see in the quarter, it was INR1.3 lakhs versus — for example, a premium was INR2.8 lakhs. And so it required a bigger increase in pricing than elementary premium. And therefore it had a bigger impact on its occupancy rate and the RevPAR is up only 8%.

But, remember Red Fox are far more in the Tier — well in the less prime locations than the Lemon Tree Premium or even a Lemon Tree. And therefore the kind of customers we get there are also more by definition value-conscious and willing to take a tradeoff on-location and price. So, it’s just a process. Let me be honest. It’s a process of discovery for us but what we are very clear is, we are going to price right and therefore, maximize RevPar rather than focus on the occupancy which used to be our strategy earlier.

And now. I know this may not exactly answer your question but we are quite clear that we will catch-up on occupancy to pre COVID levels and it is therefore a short-term pain of repricing and then building demand up to pre-COVID levels. I would much prefer we don’t go to the other route which is built-up demand at a low-price and then try and raise the price because by — at that point it is very difficult to change placing. Am I making sense to you?

Nihal JhamNoVama — Analyst

Yes. And, I just had a final clarification was that on the occupancy comment that you made that you have some believe that looking — keeping these prices also, you can get the occupancy back to what Red Fox is to do earlier?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No, I’m saying our prices will go still up. What you are seeing is the prices of Q2 and saying that Q3 will be a surprise for you in pricing and we will trade off occupancy because we are convinced that we didn’t this year itself whether in Q3 or in Q4. At some level, our occupancy — at some point our occupancy we catch-up to pre-COVID. So what am I saying. I am saying your IRR which was — whatever it was, it was 4,900. We are very clear we want to target against a 10% improvement in that ARR in Q3, a further improvement in Q4 and there will be a catch-up in occupancy.

So this 18%, 19% improvement in ARR is absolutely not what we want. We want a much higher than what we have average today and a catch-up in occupancy subsequently, but within the quarter.

Nihal JhamNoVama — Analyst

Understood. I got that, sir. Wish you all the best. Thank you so much.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Karan Khanna from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.

Karan KhannaAmbit Capital — Analyst

Yeah, hi, thanks for the opportunity. Just a couple of questions from my side. First, we’re hearing a lot of international and Indian hotel teams that are looking to expand in the mid-income segment and also the tier-two and tier-three cities. So how do you think this could impact the ask rate for management fees for the industry?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

See, as long as the other [Indecipherable] growth is, by and large the bigger brand of hotels are rationale in the fees they ask, because that is a very big difference between a listed branded players so to speak, whether international or Indian, or much smaller brands — branded but player who focuses more on management contracts.

So, see, if you are looking only at as a relatively smaller player, you are focused on cash-flow. So you will fade off fees because your game is to basically to get more-and-more hotels and earn management fees. The larger players are more interested in two things, one a fair fee which means it’s typically a much higher-fee and number two longevity of contracts.

So if you look at the contract between, say a Taj or Marriott side and say a standalone smaller chains side and I’m not going to comment on Lemon Tree, I’m talking in generally, the quality of the contract of the former are much stronger and in fact you can value that contract — these permanent NPV of future management fee, whereas the quality of the contract signed by a local operator of hotel is very weak and it is normally the owner of the hotels of the contract with no consequence. Now we have deliberately followed formal strategy which is we want strong contracts, so that we can price our contracts as the NPV of future fees.

When you look at those competitors, there are lot of them are getting into the market which is the blended players. I do not see that, there will be a trade-off on fees. Yes, there will be more competition. But whoever gets it, will get it at the right price. So I’m really — and the more I see this happening, the better I feel because all it organizes a very fragmented market. And. I do not see it as a disadvantage. I see it actually as a great advantage because the more consolidated the hotel industry gets in India, the more rational will be the behavior whether it’s pricing or in terms of quality offering and so on.

Karan KhannaAmbit Capital — Analyst

Sure. Second, in terms of active CapEx, so what we’re seeing is that total CapEx stood at INR470 crores for the HoReCa and the other hotel as of September versus INR440 crore as of the end of June quarter. So just wondering assuming a INR30 crore of run-rate — quarterly run-rate at — takes four to six to eight quarters before you complete the balance INR500 crores of CapEx. so are you on track?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Very much on track. Let me explain. Think of it as a takeoff. So when the hotel is under-construction, what happens is that, the first up to about six to nine months before it is ready, the consumption of capital is relatively low because you are really building the structure, okay, which is a low-cost part of the hotel. The high-cost part of the hotel is the finishing and the ordering of equipment, which typically as I said, happens about six to nine months to put a hotel open.

So really the pickup you will see in expenditure will be from Q4 this year, because we are going to open the hotel in Q3 next year, which is the October-December quarter. Then really you will see a pickup in CapEx from say January or February this coming year. There — even in that INR950 crores, which we have said we will spend, and let’s assume we have spent by then say INR500 crores including this quarter, the next INR450 crore, least INR100 crores well — we spend after opening the hotel, because those are related to performance clauses, which contractors — you know, when they build our hotels or supply equipment and we settled at six months to maybe even nine months after opening.

So broadly, we will require about INR350 crores next year to open the this hotel next calendar and another INR100 crores post opening. And that is why we said we tried to align our cash-flow and you will find even our gross debt has in fact remained flat in spite of us constantly invested capital in this hotel and in fact in a lot of renovation in our existing hotels, because we feel we can align the two.

Karan KhannaAmbit Capital — Analyst

Sir, just continuing on the CapEx and you mentioned roughly INR540 crores of CapEx, which has to be incurred over the next year and a half. So, do you think that the internal cash will be sufficient to sort of fund this INR540 crores or you think the debt levels will also go up because of this?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

I have said earlier that by and large our gross debt will remain the same. And that implies, of course, that we see it, that we can fund all this through or internal accruals.

Karan KhannaAmbit Capital — Analyst

Sure. Sir, just and exchange in — because you know, your quarterly finance cost run-rate is around INR45 crores which comprise of INR270 crores to INT300 crores, over the next year and a half and if we add the CapEx amount of around INR500 crore — INR540 crores, that translates into roughly INR850 crores to INR900 crores kind of a cash outflow and versus this, you believe that you know, INR800 crores kind of a cash flow over the next year and a half will be achievable?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Obvious.

Karan KhannaAmbit Capital — Analyst

Okay, all right. That’s it from my side. Thank you.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Thank you.

Karan KhannaAmbit Capital — Analyst

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Sumant Kumar from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.

Sumant KumarMotilal Oswal — Analyst

Yeah. Hi, sir. So when we see the room rate of INR2,500 to INR3,500 and across industry, branded player I have seen, what is lower than pre-pandemic. And

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

I am sorry, sorry, can you repeat that Sumant. I’m sorry, your voice cracked.

Sumant KumarMotilal Oswal — Analyst

Okay. So, room rent, room rent range of INR2,500 to INR3,500 across branded players, we have seen occupancy rate is lower than pre pandemic versus luxury. So why it is so? Is it because of pressure from the unbranded players or supply is higher? Can you talk on that?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No. I think specific. So are you talking about Red Fox Hotel.

Sumant KumarMotilal Oswal — Analyst

So, I’m talking about all the room rent we have, Red Fox and other hotels within in the range of INR2,500 to INR3,500 room rent. The occupancy, the observatory occupancy not for you, for other branded pillars, also also it is lower, maybe that real is higher for other players also, but, is there any supply-side pressure in these segment?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No. Actually quite the reverse. So if you go to slide 11. Okay. You will see that we have tried to — we always been by brand occupancy in ARR and then by region. So what I want to alert you about is, pre-COVID that Q2 FY’20 quarter, we are referring to, was three keys. There was no keys and we had not acquired keys. As you know, we acquired keys three months before COVID hit. So the way I look at it is, what did we do without keys and what did we do with keys. So there is another slide a little ahead, which I would like to look at, which is slide 21. And I think that answers your point.

So our occupancy actually in Q2 FY ’23, if you go to slide 21, was a little short of 70%, okay, with an inventory of 4,154 rooms which means really these were 200 additional rooms we added because our inventory of owned rooms were 3,975 in Q2 FY’20. Then you add Keys and Keys is the deflator as you will see. So when you look here, let me just put it in perspective. Keys has two components. One is, about 50% of its inventories is in Bangalore and Pune, where the occupancy we did was a little under 65%, about 63%. And the other 50% which is another 470 rooms was in cities like Trivendrum, Kochin, Ludhiana and so on.

There our occupancy even now was sub 40%, because Kerala has not recovered at least in this segment. So the average occupancy Keys did was 53%. But the average occupancy Lemon Tree did was a little shorter from Keys. And that’s the key point I’m making. Because if you go even city-wise like Bangalore, if you go back to my slide 11, if you go to Bangalore, we did 68% occupancy instead of 80% pre-COVID, but what was that?

Actually what it meant was that we did in Keys about 61% – 62% and in the original Lemon Tree hotels, we were well north of 70%. But you are seeing the average which is 60%. The real comparison of 80% in Q2 FY ’20 is actually with the Lemon Tree products, which did much better than the Keys products. Same logic applies in Pune. Same logic applies in rest of India. We look at rest of India where we have 1660 rooms.

If I take-out Keys, then we were much higher than this. I haven’t calculated exactly but it was much higher than this 52% that you are seeing which is the aggregate rate. So really as I had said in the earlier con-calls also, Sumant, Keys is a product which we were unable to renovate because COVID hit us just three months after its acquisition. We are in the process of renovating Keys. We have started it in fact this summer. By next summer, we will have renovated all these 936 rooms. Our plan is very simple. We think in Bangalore and Hyderabad and Pune, we can reprice it by at least 40% more than it is today.

So we are going to invest more capital in the upgrade and in the remaining markets, we are going to bring the product up to what we think is a minimum brand level. And we think thereto we can reprice by 10%-15%. So really, the upside will be captured next year. So whatever you see about Lemon Tree this year, will be really without Keys contributing to it, which will really show next year.

Sumant KumarMotilal Oswal — Analyst

Can you talk about the corporate rate hike in that — in the upcoming months? What we are….

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Yeah. So, we are looking — we have already hiked corporate rates. And if you look at corporate rates today, in Q2 FY ’23 versus Q2 FY ’20, they are already up by north of 15%. Retail, so if you look at that segment, we are up INR600 in the corporate, airline and trade segment versus Q2 ’20. And in the retail segment, we’re up INR1,000. That’s why you’re seeing a weighted-average increase of about INR800.

Sumant KumarMotilal Oswal — Analyst

Okay. And the mix has increased, corporate is…

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No, mix has changed. So as I said, there is a — when you look at the the demand drop, which is the occupancy as I said, so now I’m aggregating Keys and Lemon Tree. The actual — in number, our — in Q2 FY ’23 we did 3,346 rooms — sorry, 3,360 — 3370 rooms on our DSO 5,090, which translated to that occupancy of 66%, 67%, whatever we have announced. But in Q2 FY’20 on a smaller inventory, we did a higher RPD and if I break the two, then I see that the traditional segment of corporate, airline and travel trade, is the segment that has really come down.

And the retail segment has continued and in fact picked-up. So that is — and that is really the corporate segment. So that is why I said that, impact has come in Gurgaon, mostly in Bangalore, there a lot of corporate still has not picked up travel to the full level. And I expect it will catch up in H2.

Sumant KumarMotilal Oswal — Analyst

Sir, is there any sense on the corporate side or our industry giving lower inventories to your corporate for future?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Again, you voice disappeared.

Operator

Mr. Kumar — Sumant Kumar, could you switch to handset mode and speak, sir. Your audio is a bit muffled.

Sumant KumarMotilal Oswal — Analyst

Okay, one minute. Sir, my question is, is there any resistance from the corporate side or industries are not giving more inventory to the corporate?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No. Actually, you know, month-by month, I see corporate demand [Technical Issues] except in some markets — see, normally the 55% of our business comes from non-retail. In some markets, it’s 80%, like Gurgaon or Bangalore. Okay? So in those markets where we are more dependent on corporates, especially large corporates, some of those large corporates have not really come back to the full level. It is possible they may never come back to the full level. But the trend-line shows that demand from those segments is increasing, but has not caught up to pre-COVID.

So some segments have caught up to pre-COVID and some haven’t and where we are very dependent on those segments, which is Gurgaon and Bangalore, the catch-up is still to happen fully.

Sumant KumarMotilal Oswal — Analyst

Okay. And can you talk about the demand side for the upcoming quarter and correlation with the G20 things are also happening. So how the demand is going to be, your thoughts on that?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

I think demand is going to be phenomenal. With G20, the room to have hundreds of meetings all over India and in some cities, the government has already blocked hotels, told them they want rooms from them. So, I have no doubt, it will be very accredited in terms of value, obviously, the hotel industry in calendar year 2023. As far as demand goes, as we expected, October was a very slow month because of Dusshehra, Diwali. November is the catch-up month. So it’s very, very well. December will be also in our anticipate to trend lines, a good month till about 20th of December when slowdowns starts due to Christmas, New Year but that’s an annual event.

And Q4 will be, again, a phenomenal quarter. So we’ve kind of — it’s going as we expected. There are no negative surprises. And I think the positive upside will I do think happen in Q4 because of G20. But, I cannot comment on it currently. I don’t have good [Indecipherable]

Sumant KumarMotilal Oswal — Analyst

So G20 has a higher — the higher surprises in Q4, not Q3?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

See, what happens, G20, they will book obviously a certain number of rooms everywhere and therefore there will be a improvement in demand and therefore that will play out in pricing and demand. So, I have not worked out what will be in Q4 for the G20. But, we feel it will be a significant impact.

Sumant KumarMotilal Oswal — Analyst

Thank you so much, sir.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Sanjaya Satapathy from Ampersand. Please go ahead.

Sanjaya SatapathyAmpersand Capital Trust — Analyst

Yes, sir. Thanks a lot for the opportunity. Sir my question is that, when I see recovery, I see recovery mostly in the premium side whereas the sub INR3000 room rental that is the maximum, the recovery is yet to happen. So is that the segment which essentially catalyst to the corporate sector which you are talking about?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Again, I couldn’t hear you fully, Sanjay. Could you repeat the last line, please?

Sanjaya SatapathyAmpersand Capital Trust — Analyst

My question is that the recovery hasn’t happened at the lower-end and also recovery hasn’t happened in the corporate side. So should I conclude that the rooms dedicated for corporate is mainly the lower-end ones?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No, don’t assume that because in some markets, even if corporate has not caught up, the retail demand has replaced the — so see, there are multiple things. Even though by and large supply additions have been very marginal, pre-COVID there were supply addition planned disproportionately in some markets and less in others. So, for example, Hyderabad, Gurgaon, Bangalore have gone through a supply growth to a minor extent but it has happened. Demand growth has not been significant on the retail side. These are markets which are heavily dependent on corporate and especially IT.

So sometimes the combination like that can affect the demand-supply dynamics of a micro-market. What you are seeing is the aggregate. What I look at is that in Gurgaon and Bangalore out, we did very well, okay, Gurgaon and Bangalore relatively led to having a negative RevPAR and while I understand where you’re going, I am repeating to you, if you take our Keys, because Keys is up — is 20% of our inventory, then the rest of the Group did very well actually.

Because if you take Keys out, not only what our occupancy much higher, our IRR was also much higher. I mean just — in your mind, just go to slide 21 and you will understand exactly what I am saying.

Sanjaya SatapathyAmpersand Capital Trust — Analyst

Okay. If I can just ask…..

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No, no, wait, wait. I am answering your point. So go to slide 21. You will see Lemon Tree’s ARR grew 25% on FY ’20 to FY ’23 from 4,100 to 5,000, close to 5,200. Occupancy only slipped 5%, okay, for a repricing at the level of 25%. It was Keys that slowed down and specifically in Trivendrum and Cochin and so on, So, it’s just a catch-up there. You have to really think of it as two groups and the performance of Keys is what is currently on a weighted-average slowing us but that is the one we’re most confident, we’d be able to pick-up. So it’s low-hanging fruit that sense.

Yeah, what are you asking besides that?

Sanjaya SatapathyAmpersand Capital Trust — Analyst

And last — my next question is that, this corporate sector recovery in Gurgaon and Bangalore which you were talking about, are you attributing that to this work-from-home phenomenon or something more?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No, you see what happens is, there is all types of corporates. In some markets there is heavy dependence on small-medium enterprises. In some markets there are large corporates. In some markets, the largest share is MMCs or tech companies and stuff like that. So Gurgaon and Bangalore is really tech companies and large MNCs and that’s where I don’t see currently demand fully back to pre-COVID levels.

Sanjaya SatapathyAmpersand Capital Trust — Analyst

I mean, because of work-from-home or something else, we can….

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No, I think it’s largely picking-up. There is no — I mean they all say the demand is coming back. Our sales teams is it. Clients say. So I think it’s just a question of catch-up. Everything doesn’t catch up at the same time.

Sanjaya SatapathyAmpersand Capital Trust — Analyst

Thanks a lot, sir.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Thank you. Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Venil Shah from Prabhudas Lilladher. Please go ahead.

Venil ShahPrabhudas Lilladher — Analyst

Yeah, thanks for the opportunity, sir. Sir, can you…

Operator

Mr. Shah, sorry to interrupt. If you’re on a speaker mode, switch to handset.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Yeah, I can’t hear most of — yeah, that side.

Venil ShahPrabhudas Lilladher — Analyst

Is it better now?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Yeah.

Venil ShahPrabhudas Lilladher — Analyst

So, I have a couple of questions. One is, our total expenses have come down nearly 15% compared to Q2 F’20 levels. How much of this should reverse going at especially on the employee cost side as we gear up for stronger season in H2 and is that a significant portion of workers in our employ mix? That would be my first question.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

A significant portion of….

Venil ShahPrabhudas Lilladher — Analyst

Temporary employed as we gear up for seasonality element and all this.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No. We don’t have — we don’t have temporary employees and all that. We have either permanent employees or outsourced employees with certain roles like security or some housekeeping, et-cetera, et-cetera. We have outsourced employees. But they are not temporary at all. Because, once we take people on, we do not like to ask them to go, whether directly or indirectly.

As far as the cost structure goes, see, it’s a permanent reduction, I’ve said this before. So I think you’ll see play out. And I do not think there will be — in fact, I had said in the last conference call, I really recollect that we are going to keep adding staffing till we find the right level. Currently we are nearly there. Our staffing levels are I think, 0.63, 0.64 per room. On any points 0.65 and it will stabilize at 0.66 staff per room, which used to be one staff per room pre-COVID.

So the short answer, though, I have given you a long one is, our cost structure is permanent, what you are seeing. And as you will notice that, if you look at, for example, slide 21 again and look here, our expenses are actually — and without Keys hotel, down by about INR14 crores versus Q2 FY ’20. Although we added about 200 rooms. And Keys was the reason that the aggregate expenses went up but even so, it has been less than FY’20.

So this cost structure will not change and as I have said, this will lead to EBITDA margin — net EBITDA margin north of 50%, even in this financial year. As you will see it playing out, because think of it very simply, if we did INR390 crores, or what did we do, we did INR390 crores in H1. Even if we do a 10% improvement technically in H2, that is say INR30 crores – INR40 crores, then we will cross INR800 crores which is double of FY ’22 and that INR30 crores – INR40 crores of incremental income, the increase in costs will be less than 25% because our variable cost is 23%.

So a simple back of calculation is because INR820 crores or INR810 crores that we do H2 which is marginally better than H1, then we will north of 50% and the revenue which is 100% over the previous financial year.

Venil ShahPrabhudas Lilladher — Analyst

Sir, question as you mentioned that our staff per room to be around one, and that has come down now 0.63, is this something which you are witnessing across the industry or is there something specific to our strategy?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Well, to a greater or lesser extent across industry, but in our case, it is much more because we have done some level of automation also.

Venil ShahPrabhudas Lilladher — Analyst

Got it. Sir, and my second question would be, the fees from managed hotels was around INR15 crores for H1. Where should we build this number and where do you think this will trend say by F’25, should this be INR200 crores?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

So. Yeah, well it’s simple. H1, normally the fees from managed hotels is much less than H2 because you have what’s called incentive fees which is earned by you based on the EBITDA performance of managed hotels and normally in H2, as I said the, income is20% to 30% above H1 and that really gives you an uplift in your EBITDA.

So H1 and H2 is again 1: 1.5 because the fees are much higher. And three years later, we have a projection which is based on how many rooms we expect to operationalize. So right now when I told you, we — as of today we’ll have 11,000 rooms approximately in the next two years, we are also signing very rapidly and I have given some broad guidance on that. Now of all that plays out then our fee structure will definitely be north of INR100 crore in FY’25.

Venil ShahPrabhudas Lilladher — Analyst

Got it. Sir, and one final question, you mentioned about undergoing some CapEx for renovating the entire Keys portfolio. Do we know the quantum for the same?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

So, there is something. INR4 lakhs for Keys, for half the portfolio and INR1 lakh a key for the other half. So if you aggregate it, it is INR2.5 lakh into 1,000 rooms about INR25 crores of which we have spent some this year which is a actually part of the expenses. I think we have spent about INR7crores in renovation already this year and we will spend the balance next year and the following year. And it comes out of — before the net EBITDA figures we see.

Venil ShahPrabhudas Lilladher — Analyst

Got it, sir. Thank you so much for answering these questions and all the best.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Prateek Kumar from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Prateek KumarJefferies — Analyst

Yeah. Good afternoon, sir. My first question, — my questions are both lagging indicators on the points of earlier question was, when you say on second-half, so revenues like higher by 15% to 40% versus first-half. So like — if we like [Indecipherable] company do like a 15% versus first-half, that will be a negative surprise standing in like today.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Okay. So let me give you an example, Prateek. Suppose, I do INR100 in Q1. Typically I expect to do INR95 to INR100 rupees in Q2. So, let’s assume I do INR200 in Q1 — in H1. In H2, I should do, assuming everything is normal, I mean the industry — I don’t — this is not a guidance for Lemon Tree, you should do anywhere from INR110 to INR120 in Q3 and INR125 to INR135 in Q4.

So what I’m saying really is that, if you do INR200 in summer, you should do INR230 to say, INR260 in winter. Am I making sense? Now this — see — so therefore your annual revenue will be INR430 or INR460. However, your expenses, like, if your expenses are INR100, let’s assume you do an EBITDA INR100 in H1, in H2, your revenue was for INR430 to INR460, but your expenses go up only by 25% of the incremental value. So if you do INR430, your expenses in H2 will be INR108-INR108. And if you do INR460, your expenses will be INR115 to INR116 which is why the flow-through of EBITDA is much higher in winter than in summer purely because of the increase in rate and occupancy.

Prateek KumarJefferies — Analyst

Sir, my question actually was slightly different. So. I was asking, let’s say into which — like, sitting today in terms of general expectation. And two, if we do like, so that took 15% — I mean 115% of 1H revenue into us. That will be a negative surprise sitting today or I mean, because you also — we can also like a 140% of first half and second half?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No, it’s — actually it’s a function of two things. Frankly it’s difficult for me to give a clear number for Q2. I can only give you a range.– sorry, for H2. But I’m saying that the broad numbers which I have given you are true for the industry and as I said upfront, I will — what I have guided — in fact I have given is for the full-year. We will do more than double of last year’s revenue and we will do a net EBITDA of north of 50%. That’s all.

The rest depends on how Q3 and Q4 play out. How much is the impact of this war, continuing impact in terms of, for example, lot of chartered traffic to Goa has been affected. So there are negative there. Then how will G20, what will that play out in Q4. That will be a positive. So these are the imponderables. I cannot give specific guidelines.

Prateek KumarJefferies — Analyst

Sure, sir. And my second question is on, some cost — so are there any pent-up cost in the system which we foresee?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No. No, we are very clear in our — we are very transparent. We don’t defer any cost. We don’t — you know, we are audited by a big four. So there are no surprises negative or positive. The only point I would urge you to look at is, we are not sure what our final tax will be. So we have been conservative in our tax. So perhaps there might be a little positive in the PAT.

Prateek KumarJefferies — Analyst

Sure, sir. These are my questions. Thank you, and all the best.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Thank you

Operator

Thank you. Next question is from the line of Rajiv from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.

RajivDAM Capital — Analyst

Yeah. Good afternoon, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, on your ROI, with the rest of India the price increase from — in Q2 versus the base quarter Q2 ’20, there is INR1,000 increase which we see and the similar number is what we see in case of INR1,100 in Hyderabad. So — and the occupancies arem I mean, down in rest of India.

So, is there an experimentation you are trying to do on the pricing side to test the ROI market possibly because the supply of good hotels there is lower or is this an established trend already?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

No. So one is, again, you will have to separate the performance of rest of India between and Keys and Lemon Tree. So first point, Lemon Tree which has got about 1,200 of those rooms out of those 1660 rooms, the occupancy was close to round about 60% and the ARR was INR4500. Okay? The — it is the Keys portfolio which underperformed. Now the pricing that we are — during the most of the pricing changes that you’re seeing, in fact all are with the Lemon Tree portfolio. The Keys portfolio is not yet giving us any change from pre-COVID, because pre-COVID we didn’t have it actually. So really Keys is the portfolio that will give us the maximum upside next year.

This year, because we are in the middle of our digital transformation, we are focusing heavily on revenue management and their exercise has just started. We will continue to reprice to where we maximize RevPar and therefore hotel level EBITDA. We are personally at this point a little indifferent to occupancy. We are only focused on maximizing the revenue per room, so we increased the rate by 10% and it has a drop-in occupancy of 5%. We are quite okay with that.

So we are trying to discover the right pricing to maximize EBITDA. The whole purpose of this digital exercise and revenue management is to maximize EBITDA. So it’s an ongoing process and I think it will continue even into Q4 which is why I say, I would urge you to look at the RevPar growth in our company and the EBITDA growth in our company rather than the occupancy versus ARR because ARR has gone up 19% but if you notice, our RevPar has only grown — sorry our ARR grew 31% in rest of India but the occupancy went down 15% and therefore, RevPar only changed by one.

And that change is what we should track, because that is going to flow-through to the RevPar — to the EBITDA. So it’s not pricing strategy or occupancy strategy, it’s a combo of the two.

RajivDAM Capital — Analyst

Sure. And referring to slide 15 where you have given the market-share, so pre-COVID number, the market share in terms of room revenue and might so largely similar for the [Indecipherable] are similar and now you are basically with the room rent and market-share on the retail side is higher. So the pre-COVID dip — the retail should be paying you — my basic understanding, retail is traditionally higher than the corporate, right, and you are able to be slight higher on….

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Absolutely, right, Rajiv. If you look at revenue share pre-COVID in corporate, it was merely the room night check. So the room night check of corporate pre-COVID was 48% and revenue share was 47%. But because we increased the ARR, so you have to look at it not as a percentage but as an ARR number. We increased the ARR of retail more as I said by — if you look at pre-COVID to post-COVID, our retail ARR has gone up over INR1,000 rupees. And our non-retail, that is corporate, airline and travel trade has gone up only INR600 which is why the revenue share of corporate now is 3% less than the room nights check and the revenue share of non-corporate which is OTAs and web and others, which is the FIT, is higher than the room night check. And that’s what you see playing out.

And pre-OVID, if you notice, OTA was 29% room nights, 29% — revenue share is now 34% to 36%. And even in the — like web you can’t tell 2 to 2, but actually it’s 2 to 2.5.

RajivDAM Capital — Analyst

Sure. I was under impression that pre-COVID also the behavior should have been same, right, market share versus room night market share, there should be different than the retail versus corporate….

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Aggregate all. As you aggregate all, it was about 3%-4% because you have to look at the column — the three columns on the right and the three columns on the left. But remember, this is again including Keys, so, you’re not really getting the full picture. If you want to take the full picture, we haven’t given it in that form but if you go to slide 21, you get a very clear idea. So what’s happening and then you can break it backwards.

RajivDAM Capital — Analyst

Sure. Sure. And my last question is on, I don’t know if this is correct way of looking at it, incremental EBITDA margin on a quarter-on-quarter basis by brand, So I’m looking at let’s say Lemon Tree Premier, it will be….

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Which Slide?

RajivDAM Capital — Analyst

So, it’s not that in the slides. I’m just basically Q2 minus Q1, I’m doing in terms of EBITDAR differential and divided by the revenue differential, Q2 minus Q1, so the incremental flow through in terms of EBITDA margin and Lemon Tree Premium looks like it’s 33% versus historically incremental margin has come, 75%, 80% in terms so…

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Go to slide 11.

RajivDAM Capital — Analyst

Yeah.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

If you go to slide 11, it’s all there. The hotel level EBITDA margin.

RajivDAM Capital — Analyst

No, I get it, But this is why you — I mean, Q2 versus Q2, I’m talking about Q2 versus Q1. So because, your prices are going up, gone our RevPar in fact has gone up, but the incremental flow through in Lemon Tree Premier portfolio, in terms of EBITDA divided by the incremental revenue you have made, is 33% flow-through.

I mean, maybe I’ll take this offline.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

I’m not getting the question. Yeah, I’ll be happy to answer. But. I would urge you just look at a simple number which is slide 11. And there you will find, although Keys is an underperforming portfolio, it is still done a EBITDA margin of 52%. So, you know, what you’re seeing right now is still a work-in progress. Across the board, you will find that our EBITDA are — actually at the hotel level, the EBITDA margins are 51%. And what we are reporting at 48%, that 3% is due to basically corporate expenses and that’s why you — and of course, there is an add flow-through of management fees.

So, the column you should look at for whichever question you want to ask is the last one on slide 11. Sure. Thanks a lot for that one. All the best.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Pallavi Deshpande from Sameeksha Capital. Please go ahead.

Pallavi DeshpandeSameeksha Capital — Analyst

Yes, sir. Thank you for taking my question. Just wanted to understand what would be this ratio of outsourced employees versus totally employees.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Outsourced to total?

Pallavi DeshpandeSameeksha Capital — Analyst

Yes. You mentioned about some.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

I do — I would reckon that permanent are like 70% and outsource would be 30%, or nearly 75%, 25%. roughly that.

Pallavi DeshpandeSameeksha Capital — Analyst

Right, sir. And sir, this point….

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

But in terms of cost. I think the bigger question is the variable costs. So — but in terms of cost, it may be 25% of our staff, but it will be only 15% of cost, because obviously, the permanent employees are include managers and senior staff, so that cost is higher, per employee.

Pallavi DeshpandeSameeksha Capital — Analyst

Right, sir. This ratio, how would it move like after this Mumbai properties opened up, does — would you be looking at more of…

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Very similar, Pallavi. It will depend as well. Because certain departments are outsourced and certain are permanent. So that does not really change.

Pallavi DeshpandeSameeksha Capital — Analyst

Okay. Right. And sir, secondly on this the Social Security code of — any estimate on what kind of provisions may be required on that end?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

On which end?

Pallavi DeshpandeSameeksha Capital — Analyst

For the Social Security code? On the employee expenses part for pension provisions?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

I didn’t get the question. Are you saying… I am alluding to the notes to accounts mentioned about the social security code that has yet to be implemented and examining the… Kapil, can you answer that?

Kapil SharmaChief Financial Officer

Yeah. Hi, Kapil, this side. As you rightly mentioned, we are doing the assessment on this and probably by next quarter we will be completing this exercise and we’ll get back to you with those extra number, what impact would be there, if increase — but we feel that it’s not be — not going to be very significant [Technical Issues].

Pallavi DeshpandeSameeksha Capital — Analyst

Right, sir. Thank you, sir. That’s all from my side.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And next question is from the line of Kushal Shah, an Individual Investor. Please go ahead.

Kushal ShahIndividual Investor — Analyst

Hi, thank you for the opportunity. My question was on the industry room supply additions. So if I see your return on capital for the quarter, all the projections from the year, it is still low-double-digit, that too which is on a historical cost of land and historical cost to construction.

So if, I were to calculate the return on capital for consulting on new hotel on today’s cost of land and the cost of construction, I believe it would be low-single digits. Also we are one of the most efficient players with some management fee income as well which flows through our bottom-line. So in this context, can you help me understand that how much the ROCE has to go up from your that doesn’t become lucrative for institutional investors or an individual investor to invest in-building a new hotel and are you seeing any new supply additions being planned already?

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

That’s a very big [Indecipherable]. Supply, what you do know for a fact is, future supply growth up to five years out, because there are enough agencies in India, professional agencies who track it and supply takes three to five years to anyway operationalize. So future supply growth has really slowed down. There are different estimates but it would be no single-digit, so between, I would reckon — my best guess is, it will be 3.5% to 5% supply growth on an annualized basis. for the next three to four years. Number one.

Number two, replacement cost of hotels, you’re absolutely right has gone up in [Technical Issues]. And if pricing doesn’t catch-up, then it does not make rational sense to build new hotels. Now traditionally Lemon Tree’s problem has been that unlike most other players in India, we have been operationalizing new supply at much higher book value per room or cost per room than all the other players.

So, in our case, for example, roughly 50% of our capital deployed was operationalized in the 15, 18 months before COVID which didn’t really give a return. And that return is now starting to play out and in our case, I expect that our ROCE will show on a quarterly basis an enormous improvement from H2 onwards and this will continue in my opinion for the next three years, because demand typically grows at 12% or 1.6% to 1.7% of GDP growth for branded hotels on a secular trend basis.

So if that plays out, then my guess is that in India’s GDP growth on a real basis at 6%-7%, then demand will grow at 11%, 12% and supply will go at 5%, which means year-on-year there will be an improvement in occupancy and automatically an improvement in grade, for the next three years certainly.

So there is — it is no doubt that the industry is at cusp of an upside. When that happens, ROCE will change very dramatically. And I’ll give you an amazing number. 70% of hotels return in a cycle, a cycle can be seven to 10 years, occurs in three years. It’s a Pareto principle. That is the two years of top cycle, a hotel makes two-thirds of their — so we are not top 20% of the cycle. The hotel makes 60% 70% percent of the capital.

So that’s where we are at today. So, I have no doubt that new supply will be planned in the next year or two or three, but it will take five years to come on. So in that period, the hotel industry will do very well, including the new hotels that we have opened which have much higher cost per room than the old hotels, because as you correctly said the book value is very much lower of the old hotels.

So that’s how I expected to play out and yes, HNIs and institutional investors will plan to build hotels, probably from next year end onwards.

Kushal ShahIndividual Investor — Analyst

Yeah, sir. That answers my question. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question. I now hand the floor back to the management for closing comments.

Patanjali KeswaniChairman and Managing Director

Yeah. Thank you, everybody, for your interest and support. We will continue to stay engaged. Please be in touch with our Investor Relations team or CDR India for any further details or discussions. And I look-forward to interacting with all of you soon.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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