KRBL Limited (NSE: KRBL) Q3 2026 Earnings Call dated Feb. 19, 2026
Corporate Participants:
Ashish Jain — Chief Financial Officer
Anil Kumar Mittal — Chairman and Managing Director
Ayush Gupta — Business Head, India
Anoop Kumar Gupta — Joint Managing Director
Analysts:
Anubhav Mukherjee — Analyst
Amit Agarwal — Analyst
Chirag Singhal — Analyst
Krushi Parekh — Analyst
Kaushal Sharma — Analyst
Viraj Kacharia — Analyst
Yash Dantewadia — Analyst
Soumen Choudhury — Analyst
Naitik Mutha — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen. Good day and welcome to KRBL Limited Q3 FY ’26 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen only mode and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ashish Jain, Chief Financial Officer of KRBL Limited. Thank you, and over to you sir.
Ashish Jain — Chief Financial Officer
Thank you. Thank you to all participants for joining us. Welcome to the Q3 FY ’26 earnings conference call for analysts and investors of KRBL Limited. Today, we have Mr. Anil Kumar Mittal, Chairperson and Managing Director; Mr. Anoop Kumar Gupta, Joint Managing Director; and Mr. Ayush Gupta, Head of the India Business as key speakers on the call.
To begin the call, Anil ji will share updates on the business industry and our overall strategy. Following that, Ayush will provide insights into the performance and outlook of our domestic business. Finally, I will present the financial overview of the Company for the third quarter and nine months ended December 31, ’25.
Once the management has concluded their opening remarks, we will open the floor for an interactive question-and-answer session.
Please note that some of the statements made during the call may contain forward looking information including and actual results may differ from these statements. You can refer to KRBL’s investor presentation available on the stock exchange websites and our company’s website.
Now I would like to invite Anil ji to share his views.
Anil Kumar Mittal — Chairman and Managing Director
Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today for KRBL’s Q3 FY 2026 investors call. I sincerely appreciate your continued trust and interest in our company. I will take you through the current global rice landscape, the outcome of the 2025 Basmati crop season in India and Pakistan, price movements over the last quarter and how these developments shape our outlook.
Let me begin with the global rice outlook. According to the latest USDA rice outlook released in February 2026, global rice production for ’25-’26 remains around the mid 540 million metric tonne level. While global consumption has strengthened and is now broadly aligned with production.
This tightening consumption production balance reflects stronger demand in Asia and Africa and a pickup in domestic consumption in India. The global rice market therefore remains stable, but the limited surplus cushion a dynamic that supports continued export opportunities for reliable suppliers.
India continues to consolidate its position as world’s largest rice producer. Production for ’25-’26 is estimated at a record high supported by increased acreage, favorable farm economics and continued productivity gains. While overall production is strong, regional weather pattern played a significant role in determining crop quality.
On Basmati, the 2025 harvest, which concluded recently can best be described as adequate in volume but uneven in quality across regions.
Acreage remained broadly stable across Punjab, Haryana and Western Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and parts of Madhya Pradesh. Adoption of pest resistant and higher yield Pusa varieties continued to improve agronomic resilience. However, heavy monsoon stunts and localized flooding in parts of Punjab and Haryana during the great filling stage resulted in higher moisture content and in some pockets reduced Head Rice recovery. At the same time, other producing belts experienced normal condition and delivered strong grain length and aroma characteristics.
Turning to Pakistan, the Basmati crop outcome has been mixed rather than severely damaged. While early flood reports indicated potential losses, subsequent assessments suggest that impact were localized with several growing regions delivering good grain quality and aroma.
Since October 2025, Pakistan Super Basmati has traded at a premium to Indian 1121 with FOB offers broadly in the $1,180 to $1,220 per metric tonne range higher than comparable Indian quotes. This reflected tighter premium availability in Pakistan and India’s larger overall supply, enabling more competitive pricing.
However, higher prices did not translate into stronger volumes. Pakistan export shipments faced pressure amid India’s renewed competitiveness following normalization of its trade policies. From an Indian exporter perspective, the fact that Pakistan Basmati prices have trade — have been trading at a premium has reinforced India’s competitiveness in several destination markets. This has helped sustain export flows even amid geopolitical uncertainty.
On the geopolitical front, the recent concluded US-India trade understanding, which sets an important duty of 18% on Indian rice export to the United States, provide greater clarity and stability compared to the earlier reciprocal tariff uncertainty.
While the duty remains higher than the historical levels and may influence pricing dynamics in that market, it has brought predictability to trade flows and has not materially disturbed India’s overall Basmati export trajectory. Shipping disruption previously seen in the Red Sea corridor have eased compared to last year peak volatility, although freight markets remain sensitive to broader geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
Now turning to KRBL’s performance, our export revenue for Q3 FY 2026 stood at INR357 crore compared to INR563 crore in Q3 2025 since the volume in bulk export segment was restricted owing to geopolitical tension for the nine months and pensions. For the nine months ended, export revenue reached INR1,276 crore reflecting a 21% year-on-year increase. Consolidated revenue of Q3 was INR1,476 crore with EBITDA of INR250 crore and PAT of INR170 crore for the quarter. These results reflect strong operational momentum and strategic resilience. We are encouraged by our performance in Q3 and are excited about the opportunities ahead.
Our balance sheet strength, disciplined procurement strategy and deep sourcing network position well to build on this performance and capture value as global demand continues to evolve. Strategically, our focus remains clear. First, we will continue to prioritize procurement of low moisture, high recovery paddy to protect margins and brand quality. Second, we will expand our branded and premium portfolio presence in key international market as reflected in the third quarter.
Third, we will leverage India’s pricing competitiveness relative to Pakistan to deepen relationship with large global buyers. And fourth, we remain committed to operational efficiency and and disciplined capital allocation including our long-term consolidation plans at Panipat to announce scalability and cost optimization.
In summary, the 2025 Basmati season presenting regional challenges but not structural shortages. Global rice demand remains firm and India’s production stand supports export continuity.
Thank you once again for your continued trust and support. Now I hand it over to Ayush who is in Colombo at the moment for the domestic business update and detailed financial review. Thank you.
Ayush Gupta — Business Head, India
Thank you. Good afternoon everyone. I will walk you through the performance of our India business for quarter three and nine months for financial year 2026. For nine months financial year 2026, domestic revenue excluding power stood at INR3,215 crores growing 6% year-over-year, driven largely by higher value. Branded basmati grew by 6%. Branded non-basmati grew strongly at 35%. This value-led growth validates the strategic direction we have taken in widening that portfolio and and improving distribution reach. In quarter three financial year 2026, our domestic revenue excluding power stood at INR1,104 crores, staying broadly flat year-on-year. Branded basmati sales remained flat while branded non-basmati sales grew by 9%.
The quarter performance reflects stability rather than acceleration. The Basmati category saw increased competitive intensity from loose and regional players, specifically in general trade and modern trade channels. Low raw material prices put downward pressure on demand and margins. However, KRBL delivered robust margin expansion while maintaining volume stability. Despite competitive intensity, we remain the clear market leader across channels. Our market share in general trade stands at 37.8%. In modern trade, it is at 39.3% and e-commerce, we enjoy a leading market share of 41.2%. Flat top line with strong margin reflects disciplined portfolio management and pricing power.
Our domestic strategy continues to be anchored around four clear pillars. First, democratizing distribution, our presence across 3.2 lakh retail outlets and reaching to 1.2 crore urban Indian households. We are focused on strengthening presence in better quality stores and increasing penetration in urban households. Our distribution expansion is becoming more granular especially in under-penetrated towns.
Second, remodeling our supply chain. We are building a more robust and healthier GTM structure. Now with 16 CNS and eight super stockist points, we are moving towards a stronger for model.
We have a tighter governance to safeguard against channel infiltration and improve servicing and cost efficiency in modern trade and e-commerce. This transformation is enabling wider and deeper supply, better serviceability and cost optimization. This will progressively improve service discipline and operating margins over time.
Our third pillar Investing in the brand. During the Diwali festive season we launched a high impact campaign featuring Mr. Bachchan for India Gate Classic. Roughly 4,200 GRPs, 60% reach across TV, digital and out of home. The campaign reinforced emotional positioning around make every moment classic and strengthened premium brand saliency. Additionally, we executed high intensity Pan India activations in modern trade outlets demonstrating category leadership and improving in store visibility. We continue to invest in our brands as we believe it supports long term premiumization and market share recovery.
Our last pillar following into new products and categories under the applied brand we are expanding into value added rice for proactive health goals. We now have brown rice for weight management, Basmati brown rice for gut health and low GI everyday rice for active health. Additionally, edible oil sales stood at INR9 crores in nine months financial year ’26 and we expect this to scale further in this financial year as our distribution deepens.
To summarize, quarter three was stable domestically despite competitive pressures.
Nine month growth reflects healthy volume expansion. We remain market leaders across channels. Structural initiative in distribution and supply chain are underway. Brand investments are reinforcing premium positioning and pricing power. Portfolio expansion through applies and adjacencies opens new growth vectors. Our focus remains clear: strengthen the core, premiumize the portfolio, widen distribution and build adjacencies. All while protecting margins and long term brand equity.
Thank you. I will now hand it over to Ashish for his comments.
Ashish Jain — Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Ayush. I will now take you through the performance for the quarter ended 31st December 2025 and also the nine month period ended the same date. All figures mentioned by me would refer to consolidated financials of KRBL Limited.
Coming to the quarter, total income for the quarter stood at INR1,502 crores, lower by 11% over the corresponding quarter last year. Export revenue in the quarter is lower due to high private label revenue in the same quarter last year. Export revenue, however, increased by 21% in the nine month period ended December 2025. Domestic revenue excluding power remained flat for reasons which Ayush has just explained.
Gross margin for the quarter stood at 30.2% compared to 24% in quarter three FY ’25 higher due to lower average Basmati COGS and higher other income during the quarter. EBITDA margin for the quarter was at 16.9% versus 12% in the same period and is higher due to higher gross margin but was partially offset by higher proportionate employee cost, including a 0.6% additional gratuity cost provision. PAT for the quarter was at INR170 crores or 11.3% in margin terms as against INR133 crores or 7.8% in the corresponding quarter.
Let me now share a comparative analysis of Q3 vis-a-vis the preceding quarter.
Revenue for operations declined by 2% quarter-on-quarter. Domestic revenue increased by 6% while export revenue declined by 18% due to lower bulk export revenue during the quarter. Branded exports increased marginally by 2% over the previous — preceding quarter. Other income is lower mainly due to lower forex gain in the current quarter. Gross profit was higher primarily due to improved sales mix, basically higher proportion of branded sales. EBITDA followed the trend in gross profit partially impacted by higher proportionate employee cost including the additional gratuity provision I had mentioned earlier.
Coming to nine months, total income for the period was at INR4,572 crores, higher by 10% against the corresponding period last year.
Domestic revenue in the period grew by 6%, mainly driven by branded rice volume growth while export revenue increased by 21%. Gross profit of the Company stood at 28.3% in margin terms while EBITDA and PAT were at 15.8% and 10.6%, respectively. Margin improved mainly due to lower input costs. Average basmati cost declined by 9% in the nine month period as paddy prices were lower in last procurement season and also the margin is higher because of higher other income.
Moving to the balance sheet, talking about inventory first, our total inventory as of Decemer 31, 2025 stood at INR3,941 crores.
This includes INR1,322 crores in paddy inventory versus INR1,239 crores as of Decemer 31, ’24 and INR2,450 crores in rice inventory versus INR2,877 crores as of the same date last year. On a volume basis, as of Decemer 31, ’25, paddy and rice inventory stood at 3,500 and 8,000 tonnes and four — sorry, 3.58 lakh tonnes and 4.11 lakh tonnes respectively, compared to 3.41 lakh tonnes of paddy and 4.58 lakh tonnes of rice in Decemer 31, ’24. The decline in inventory value is due to both lower per-unit cost and lower inventory carrying cost.
Net bank borrowings, net of treasury Investments were at negative INR388 crores as of Decemer 31, ’25 as against INR102 crores last year.
Lower inventory coupled with higher cash profit generated in the nine month period resulted in lower net bank debt.
With that, I come to an end of my prepared remarks. I will now like to hand over to the moderator for opening the Q&A. I would just like to mention that the ET matter is subjudice, so we will not be in a position to respond to queries on this matter. Over to the moderator now.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you very much. We will now begin with the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] We will take the first question from the line of Anubhav Mukherjee from Prescient Capital. Please go ahead.
Anubhav Mukherjee
Hello. Am I audible?
Ashish Jain
Yes, we can hear you. We can hear you. Yeah.
Anubhav Mukherjee
Thanks. So my first question is that both in the export and the domestic market, what are the current realizations like compared to like Q3 past quarter?
Ashish Jain
Yeah, talking about the domestic branded business, the quarter three realization was around 1.16 lakh per MT. And on the export branded side, it was about 1.4 lakh per MT.
Anubhav Mukherjee
And just to follow…
Ashish Jain
Sorry, one correction. Yeah, one correction. On the domestic side, it was about 77,500 per tonne. And on the export side, like I mentioned, it was about 1.42 lakh.
Anubhav Mukherjee
And sir, just a follow up, how are the realization currently in both the markets? Like did you witness any, like, uptrend or downtrend?
Ashish Jain
So your question is around post the quarter, how is the prices?
Anubhav Mukherjee
Yeah, yeah. Currently. Yeah.
Anil Kumar Mittal
No, present, if you talk of present, in last 15 days, the prices have gone up by practically 7%, 8% in last 15 days. In last 15 days, the prices have gone up quite much. But if you see the domestic market, the effect will come in the first quarter of the next year. Definitely, our prices will — we will increase our prices in the first quarter of next year.
Anubhav Mukherjee
Okay. And sir, given the lower cost of like rice inventory and given these price hikes, so will we witness further gross margin improvement for the coming financial year? If you can, like, share some perspective on that.
Anil Kumar Mittal
Definitely, definitely. Even I tell you, our fourth quarter EBITDA will definitely grow by minimum 200 to 250 basis points more. And for the next financial year, since we are holding stocks for more than one year, one and a half year, so next financial year also, looking at the market, our EBITDA is going to be intact.
Anubhav Mukherjee
Get that. And sir, we were trying to set up our own distribution setup in the Saudi market and there was some progress in the previous quarter as well. So sir, can you share what is the current status of that?
Anil Kumar Mittal
The Saudi business is progressing well and we are seeing consistent volume demand with regular shipment taking place. Our current approach of working directly with wholesaler is working effectively in the interim and helping us maintain strong market visibility. We are still evaluating the right long term distributor structure and have not finalized a distributor yet. Given the strategic nature of this market, we would prefer to share further specifics through direct investor interactions.
Operator
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Amit Agarwal [Phonetic] from Leeway Investments. Please go ahead.
Amit Agarwal
Hello. Hello.
Operator
Yes, you’re audible.
Ashish Jain
Yes, go ahead.
Amit Agarwal
Good afternoon. My question regarding Saudi Arabia and Iran, sir, as you said, your shipments to Saudi Arabia is doing pretty well. So can you quantify the amount of exports we have in Saudi Arabia right now for the whole year? And Iran currency has collapsed in last two months. So how do you think that will be affected as a company regarding the Iran exports.
Anil Kumar Mittal
And talk to our CFO, he will give you…
Ashish Jain
Yeah, so see just to answer your first question, we typically don’t get into country level revenue details. Right? So not be able to share specific country level numbers.
Amit Agarwal
Yeah, okay, this is fine. But can you — like earlier told in five, six years back that we were doing around about INR1,000 crores of exports to Saudi Arabia. So I just want to know how much have we regained in market again? And what about the Iran currency has pull off? So how do you think materially is going to affect us as a company in the coming quarters?
Ashish Jain
So I think two points. One is on Saudi like Anil ji had mentioned, I think that business is progressing well through the distributors. I think that’s what he had touched on through wholesalers. And I think on Iran, if you look at our revenue, I mean the bulk revenue that has shown significant growth over the last year. So both markets, Saudi as well as Iran are working well for us right now.
Amit Agarwal
[Technical Issues]
Ashish Jain
Sorry, your voice is not very clear. Can you repeat?
Amit Agarwal
My question is regarding Iran only any effect because of the Iran and US tension going on right now?
Anil Kumar Mittal
There is still tension going on and that is why we are quite restrictive in concluding any new business in Iran. So therefore it will take some time till some conclusion takes place. It will be difficult for me to comment. At the moment, we are also very cautious in exporting anything to Iran or getting new orders.
Amit Agarwal
So how much is exposed to Iran in the previous years? So that if the tensions continue, how much is are we going to affect for our export business?
Ashish Jain
See, I think we clarified earlier. If you look at the business conducted so far with Iran that has shown growth over the same period last year. Now like I said, future business like Anil ji mentioned, it depends upon how the whole geopolitical situation shapes up which we are on on a close watch of.
Amit Agarwal
Okay. And my last question is regarding oil business. Sir, I’ve seen notice that our gut oils are not easily available on e-commerce business sites. So how much turnover are we expected to do?
Operator
Sorry to interrupt in between, Amit, your voice is not audible. I would request you to please rejoin the queue again. Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Chirag Singhal from First Water Fund. Please go ahead.
Chirag Singhal
Yeah, a few questions from my end. First on the regional rice. So can you provide the total packaged or branded regional rice market size for the varieties that we are selling?
Ashish Jain
Ayush, you want to take that?
Ayush Gupta
Yeah, yeah, I’ll take that. Yeah, yeah. So as I mentioned in my earlier calls as well, we entered multiple regional rice varieties in the past. However, as we’ve understood the market, as we operated in these markets, we’ve kind of settled down with three large varieties which is Gobindobhog from West Bengal, Wada Kolam from Gujarat and Sona Masuri from Karnataka. And all three varieties, we primarily do aged rice varieties and aged rice segment. So these segments independently are very large and the market size, if I have to estimate, could be in the range of INR3,000 crores to INR4,000 crores.
Chirag Singhal
Okay, so this is…
Ayush Gupta
Did I answer your question? Yeah, yeah.
Chirag Singhal
Yeah. So this is — yeah. So just to confirm, INR3,000 crore to INR4,000 crore is the total market size for this rice. These three. And this would be expanding I believe as the shift happens from the loose rice to package rice.
Ashish Jain
See, in the regional rice business, most of the business happens in bulk packs, only 30 kg bags. So there isn’t the loose to package conversation in regional rice. The conversation rather is it’s very fragmented. There are many, many brands available in the market. So it’s a fragmented market, but it’s all a bulk pack business.
Chirag Singhal
Okay, got it. My second question is on the Ghaziabad land. So any updates on the monetization plan?
Anil Kumar Mittal
At the moment, we have postponed it because we calculated that the cost of transferring the unit to other place is quite high. So for at least minimum two to three years, we have postponed the decision. We have delayed the decision.
Chirag Singhal
Okay, all right, I’ll join back in the queue. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Krushi Parekh from BugleRock PMS. Please go ahead.
Krushi Parekh
Yeah, hi. So if my calculations are correct, it appears that December 2025 inventory are a bit lower than the previous December. I mean December 2024. So how are we placing ourselves during Q4 for procurement? And I’m asking especially considering that the Basmati prices have been declining over last couple of years. It has declined by about 20-odd percentages. So will we see some more procurement in terms of volumes or we are likely to maintain at a steady pace as compared to the last year.
Anil Kumar Mittal
As far as our sales numbers are concerned, we are comfortable and our stock levels are okay. December ’23, we had overstocking, but now we are at level. I should not say we are overstocked, but we are at level. At these levels, we cannot buy more. But our stock levels are okay — at okay level.
Krushi Parekh
Okay. So broadly flattish volumes is what we are expecting versus last year.
Anil Kumar Mittal
We will be 10% plus — 10% to 12% plus over last year.
Krushi Parekh
Okay, okay. And second. Ayush, just one clarification. You mentioned that in your opening remarks. We have a retail outlets of 3.2 lakhs now. And if I, you know, kind of check the June call, we had mentioned that it is at about 3.6 lakhs. So is it — I mean my understanding correct. Or are we seeing some kind of a strategic decision when it comes to the retail outlets?
Ayush Gupta
Yeah, I’ll answer this into — Yeah, thank you. I’ll answer this in two parts. So yes, our retail outlets have kind of diminished in the past four to five months. And broadly there are two reasons. One is there’s a lot of shift of branded basmati business happening from general trade to quick commerce. Right? So there are a lot of outlets especially in the metro and Tier 1 cities which are reducing their position on branded basmati rice. And that’s one of the reasons that we’ve seen a reduction of outlets over the course.
Second reason is, we engaged in certain cobranding activities with other FMCG companies in the past which had given us an uplift in retail expansion.
So because those cobranding activities are now at a hold and they have not concluded, we’ve seen a little bit of a reduction in outlet now. However, if you kind of see this data regularly, there tends to be a 10% to 15% volatility in the retail outlet count as the year progresses. So it’s not a very big dip that we’ve seen. We tend to gain back these volumes. Also depends on the market prices and trade prices of unbranded and the overall commodity rather.
Krushi Parekh
Okay, okay. And just, I mean as a follow-up to this particular thing, how are we taking when we have one of our pillar as expanding our reach? So how are we looking at general trade now versus modern trade in the overall scheme of things?
Ayush Gupta
So general trade, as I told you, there’s saturation in the metro and Tier 1 markets. Also we see general trade business moving to quick commerce and modern trade more in Metro and Tier 1. Hence our focus in the past year and it continues to be is to expand distribution in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities. And as India’s consumption power and purchasing power is increasing, we are seeing Basmati’s presence increase in Tier 2, Tier 3 cities. And as a brand, as a leading brand, our distribution reach first will give us a first mover advantage in gaining market share in those markets.
Krushi Parekh
Okay, got it. Thank you. I’ll join back.
Operator
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Kaushal Sharma from Equinox Capital Venture Private Limited. Please go ahead.
Kaushal Sharma
Hello. Hi sir, very good evening. I’m audible.
Ashish Jain
Yes, we can hear you.
Kaushal Sharma
Yeah. So my question is on your Ghazia project, like you said that you have postponed your GAR property. But in addition to that we have a plan to develop a real Estate project by acquiring land over there. So what is the progress or what is our plan in that sense?
Anil Kumar Mittal
Regarding the Panipat land parcel of approximately 125 acre. The registry process is currently underway. We are evaluating opportunities to monetize a portion of that land at attractive valuation based on strong market interest. While retaining roughly 50 to 60 acres for future expansion of our Barota operations. This approach allows us to balance capital efficiency with long term capacity planning.
Kaushal Sharma
Okay. So we’ll do the real estate project in Panipat?
Anil Kumar Mittal
It is in Samalkha, which is in district Panipat. It is near to our Sonepat plant. It is near to our Sonepat plant. We have a plant in Sonepat in a place called Barota.
Kaushal Sharma
So what kind of [Technical Issues] expecting and the revenue [Technical Issues]?
Ashish Jain
I think he’s saying, what investment is expected, so that is being planned?
Anil Kumar Mittal
It has been planned. It has been planned. But if we go through I think so that investment will be to the tune of about around 100 acres — INR100 crores.
Kaushal Sharma
And the revenue potential?
Anil Kumar Mittal
It is too early about revenue, everything.
Anoop Kumar Gupta
It will be a packaging plant.
Anil Kumar Mittal
You talk.
Anoop Kumar Gupta
It is going to be a packaging plant. Directly, it is whatever manufacturing and there is some packaging. So we will be doing packaging there at that plant. So it will increase our more packaging and it will increase our share — it will increase the packaging capacities of our units. Maybe… Yeah.
Kaushal Sharma
My question relating to the real estate project that in addition to Ghaziabad property we are planning to develop with INR1,000 crores of outlay. I guess in the last call you have mentioned.
Anil Kumar Mittal
No, but still we have done a investment of INR425 crores. But if we will get the opportunity, if we have said that we will be entering the real estate does not mean that we have decided that minimum we have to put it. It all depends upon the opportunity. As we got the opportunity in small cap. Let me tell you the price at which we got this land is much cheaper what today is in the market. So therefore we are looking at the opportunity. If opportunity comes where the prices we get a land at 50%, 60% of the price, we’ll definitely invest another INR500 crores, INR600 crores.
Kaushal Sharma
Any timeline sir that we are expecting?
Anil Kumar Mittal
No, there is no timeline. It may not be that we may not enter also we may not. So till the time the right opportunity comes where we can make a minimum of 40%, 50% profit will not enter into any land parcel.
Kaushal Sharma
Okay. Got it. Thank you very much for answering question.
Operator
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Viraj from SiMPL. Please go ahead.
Viraj Kacharia
Yeah, just two questions. So on one is on the real estate. So the monetization which we are planning shifting off the existing plant to another. Can you just explain a little bit in detail what is the reason why we have postponed it for two, three years?
Anil Kumar Mittal
Actually we were of the opinion that it will hardly take INR200 crore, INR250 crore to ship the plant from present from Ghaziabad to another site. But when we went into detail, we analyze it’s a very huge amount which would be spent while shifting the present industry from Ghaziabad to other places. So for the time being, for minimum two, three years, we have postponed it. We do not want to spend that type of a big investment. And let me add also in further two years, the prices at Ghaziabad, what they are prevailing today, will further rise by minimum 20%, 25%.
Viraj Kacharia
Okay, second question is, if you look at the cash right now, what will be the cash on the balance sheet?
Ashish Jain
Yeah, as of December 31st, it was around INR400 crores.
Viraj Kacharia
Right. So I think, post this budget announcement, buyback window, some tractors from source April. So is there any thoughts in terms of increasing payouts maybe through buyback or similar routes?
Anoop Kumar Gupta
Yeah, in this budget it has been quite attractive. So we are thinking about it. We’ll think about it. Thank you.
Viraj Kacharia
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Yash Dantewadia from Dante Equity. Please go ahead.
Yash Dantewadia
Yeah, I just wanted to clarify one statement. Did you say in quarter four, the margins are going to go up by 200 to 250 basis points?
Ashish Jain
Yeah, so I think, Anoop.
Anoop Kumar Gupta
Yeah, because I think the realization would be better. Our realization per ton, because of the market, it would be better. So the EBITDA is going to increase by 200%.
Yash Dantewadia
Okay, thank you for clarifying. I just have two questions. First question is regarding what you said about Ghaziabad. You said you’ll sell some of the land and you’ll retain 70 or 80 acres, right? That is with relation — Panipat.
Anoop Kumar Gupta
Yeah.
Yash Dantewadia
So are you going to shift after two years or after three years or whenever it becomes more feasible? You said initially you thought it would be INR200 crores, INR250 crores to shift the plant. Could you share the current number that it’s coming up to shift the plant?
Anoop Kumar Gupta
Let me clear you. There are two proposals. One is we have already a plant in Ghaziabad and there we have around 115 acres of land. That value today is around INR2,500 crores. We believe in next two, three years this INR2,500 crore will might become INR3,500 crores. That’s number one. While we had decided that we will shift our plant and monetize on the Ghaziabad land, we later on when we make out made out the details we came to know it is not a question of INR2,300 crore. It might be more than INR500 crore to INR600 crore in shifting a plant.
So for the time being we have postponed that planning of shifting Ghaziabad plant. As far as Somalkha Panipat project is concerned, the total land over there is around 125 acres out of which we want to sell half of the land. Because it is not a single land there. It is in patches of INR20 crore — 20 acre, 10 acre, 15 acre. And the other side of the land is 50 acre one patch. On those 50 acres we want to develop and extend our Barota plant. Because we are facing problem of this space and we are taking godowns and other things outside the factory area where we will sell 50% of the land, which is around 50, 60 acres and where we will get good price.
That is the proposal.
Yash Dantewadia
Right. Coming to my second question. I would really want to know the trajectory of exports from here on. As you shared during this con call that your realizations are almost 2x in exports versus domestic, right? So currently, the run rate that’s there, I think it’s around INR1,300 crores to INR1,400 crores per year in exports. Right? So for the next financial year where do we see this trajectory sort of heading? Could you throw some light on that? And also your domestic numbers were sort of flat year-on-year this quarter. Where do you — what kind of volume growth do you see because of regional rice and because of all the other value added products that you’re trying to sell?
So I just want basically I want to understand the trajectory of sales or volumes in domestic and export market both for the next financial year.
Ashish Jain
I think you know that will probably need some explanation. Maybe we can get in touch offline. I’m happy to discuss it with you offline. I think your question is more on a multi year outlook.
Yash Dantewadia
Not multi year. Export — at least on the export, if we could share it now, that would be great.
Anil Kumar Mittal
Exports, we are doing quite fine and I believe that next financial year the export should jump by minimum 15%. It should — this is our idea because the price is what we take from the market are much higher compared to our competitors. Taking a price realization of INR14,000 — INR1.4 lakh tonne is I don’t think so anybody else is taking in the market these type of realization. So we do not compromise on pricing. Therefore, we expect that minimum 15% right should be there next year.
Yash Dantewadia
So just to conclude, 15% rice in export volumes next financial year, right 15%. That’s what you stated.
Anil Kumar Mittal
Right. Right.
Yash Dantewadia
Perfect. I’ll come back in the queue for more and we should take that domestic question offline later. Thank you so much.
Ashish Jain
Sure, no problem.
Operator
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Soumen Choudhury from Mansarovar Financials. Please go ahead.
Soumen Choudhury
Hello. Am I audible?
Ashish Jain
Yeah, we can hear you.
Soumen Choudhury
Yeah. Good afternoon everyone and thank you for the opportunity. I just wanted to come back on the domestic volume issue this quarter we saw a flat number YoY and Ayush was talking about some increased competition. So how do we look at this segment going forward say for this quarter and next year? Can we still maintain a mid single digit kind of growth that we have seen over the last few years?
Ashish Jain
Ayush, do you want to take that?
Ayush Gupta
So, Soumen, see quarter three tends to be the highest grossing quarter for the Company. And what happened last year in bulk pack was the market was more bullish during the quarter three. So a lot of bulk pack business got preponed in quarter three last year. Similarly this year it has been postponed into quarter four. So January, February is when a lot of that bulk pack business which got preponed in quarter three last year is happening in Jan, Feb. So because of that, we are seeing a little bit of a flattish growth or maybe a zero growth in quarter three this year.
That’s on the bulk pack side. But bulk pack demand remains very strong for us. Bulk pack is actually growing very, very strong both on margin as well as volumes. That’s point number one.
Point number two on the consumer pack. There are a couple of reasons. One, as I told you, there’s a lot of inter channel competition happening. So general trade business is moving to e-commerce and modern trade. So a lot of that disturbance in terms of price, lot of omnichannel demand from consumers is happening there. Added to that is because of low prices this quarter, a lot of regional and local brands have taken the opportunity to kind of enter the market at a very low price.
As KEBL, we took a conscious call of not reducing, reducing our prices for short term volume gain because once we reduce prices to gain volume then increasing pricing in the market takes couple of months and a lot of energy in terms of getting that momentum back.
So yes, we sacrifice certain volumes I would say in quarter three, but to the extent that it was, I would say a more calibrated call of what we did. We didn’t want to lose market share but we didn’t want to gain short term volume on the expense of margin.
So we decided to expand margin and keep volumes kind of stable.
Soumen Choudhury
Okay. So now that the since the paddy prices have increased a little bit, as you were saying, this competition should be somewhat lower now.
Ayush Gupta
Yes. So in quarter four definitely we have taken calibrated price increases in lot of markets but I would still say in certain markets where we still face stricter competition, we will decide to go with an aggressive price and gain market share. So that kind of a play will happen on a daily basis and that’s more of an operational strategic call of how we want to run the show. But largely we remain margin focused in terms of gaining margin and maintaining appraising power in the market.
Soumen Choudhury
Okay. So next year also it will be difficult to say as of now whether we can still maintain that mid single digit kind of growth.
Ayush Gupta
I think we are very positive that we can maintain mid single digit growth or maybe even early double digit growth because as I said bulk pack business continues to remain strong. The good thing is e-commerce, quick commerce channel which is a brand forward channel is gaining salience for the category. Right? Almost 30%, 35% of consumer pack business has started to contribute from the e-commerce and quick commerce channels. So as the salience and as the number of dark stores keep increasing our salience from this channel increases and there we have a very, I would say a competitive advantage compared to the overall category because there, there are no loose players, there are no regional brands operating.
We are competing with national brands and then India Gate has a very, very strong brand equity.
Soumen Choudhury
Okay, that’s it from my side. Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Naitik from NV Alpha Fund. Please go ahead.
Naitik Mutha
Hi, sir, thanks for taking your question. Sir, just to have a little bit more on the domestic revenue that we are doing. If I look at the post past four to five quarters, we sort of been stuck in the INR1,050
Crore to INR1,100 crore quarterly sort of number. And now given that you know we are also losing market share in both MT and GT, so GT I understand you know some share might be shifting to e-com putcom but even in empty we are losing market share. So do we think now this share market share loss we would be able to arrested or to continue to fall. What are we doing to sort of stop this loss of market share?
Ayush Gupta
Thank you for that question. See, December, January and Feb ongoing, we have seen a good run rate in market share regain in modern trade.
And as I had mentioned, I think earlier also in my earlier calls that market share loss in modern trade is primarily on the back of private label play increase at one of the major retailers in modern trade. However, there has been some changes again in the strategy at the modern retail chain end and now that private level play is again going down. So we see a regain in market share happening in modern trade as well.
Naitik Mutha
Got it, got it. And so we do maintain that we might start growing at say high single digit or maybe early double digit in the domestic market.
Ayush Gupta
Yes, yes.
Naitik Mutha
The second question is just a bookkeeping question. We’ve seen employee cost rise sharply, if I look at YoY or if I look at QoQ, I understand there might be some effect of the gratuity but what’s the sort of steady state employee cost that we expect per quarter? And if you can just give clarification, why is it jumped so high? Even if I look at last quarter the jump was very sharp. So apart from the gratuity one time provision, if you could clarify, why is it increasing that sharply.
Ashish Jain
Other than the gratuity provision which is at about INR9.5 crores reflecting in quarter three, the other year-on-year increase that you see is largely an account of increase in headcount. So when we look at December ’25 versus December ’24, total on roll employee headcount is up by about 160 people. Most of this is coming from increase in capacity that we’ve done at Ghaziabad and at Barota plants. Right. So it is linked to higher production capacity and a little bit on the sales side.
Naitik Mutha
Got it. So this would remain right, the run rate for quarter.
Ashish Jain
Yeah, I think you can say that other than the gratuity provision, what you see now should now only be increments related increase and not disproportionate.
Naitik Mutha
Got it. But sorry, but 60 crores will remain per quarter and apart from that, whatever annual improvements are there.
Ashish Jain
Correct. Yeah.
Naitik Mutha
Got it. Thank you. That’s it from my side.
Operator
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Chirag Singhal from First Water Fund. Please go ahead. Chirag, you may proceed with your question. Due to no response, we will take the next participant. We have the next follow-up question from the line of Krushi Parekh from BugleRock PMS. Please go ahead.
Krushi Parekh
Yeah, hi. Just on that real estate piece, we are continuing with the development of Panipat. So who from our team is involved in the development of that particular land parcel and maybe even ongoing basis and have we onboarded some people to look into this particular segment? Hello.
Anoop Kumar Gupta
You see there’s no question of development as Mr. Mittal has said, out of 125 acres, about 50 acres, we are going to develop of our own. We are going to build our own warehouses, our own packaging and processing unit and balance will sell as it is at a better price. So there is no question of any development in it.
Krushi Parekh
Okay. And secondly on that distribution side itself for Ayush, are we — when we are looking at the modern trade rising, we are clearly selling it to a smaller set of people versus when it comes to general trade. So how do you see ourselves placed in terms of the bargaining power or the — how competitive we need to be especially with regards to them. Especially when we mentioned that the private brands had taken hold in one of the large organized player? So how do you see this thing panning out over longer term for our business?
Ayush Gupta
See, that’s definitely, I would say a negative when dealing with organized trade. Private labels do have a equal opportunity to kind of retail and sell their brands. But however, when it comes to an organized trade, the biggest advantage that comes, it’s a branded play. And that’s where all our investments, all our efforts that we’ve been doing for all these years really come into play. In a general trade ecosystem because it’s an organized we know you fall back to competition which is unfair to a lose to a regional which is much more driven by price and retailer advocacy.
On a modern trade and an e-commerce platform, it’s the end consumer who’s making a decision. And price often is not the supreme, I would say, reason why a consumer will choose you or not choose you. There are many other factors that come into play and that’s I think inherently in a modern trade and an e-commerce environment, branded players or leading branded players have an advantage. So more and more industry category as it moves to an organized trade, branded players will always win and lead.
Having said that, I understand the fact on general trade of — general trade contracts then the size of the category kind of shrinks.
But as I told you, more of this plays happening in the Metro and Tier 1 cities. General trade is continuing to expand in the Tier 2, Tier 3 cities. When it comes to Basmati and that’s a new market that is opening for us. And we are ahead of the curve in terms of building our distribution there and catering to the consumers.
Operator
[Operator Closing Remarks]