Jindal Stainless Limited (NSE: JSL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call dated May. 09, 2025
Corporate Participants:
Shreya Sharma — Head of Investor Relations
Abhyuday Jindal — MD & Executive Director
Tarun Khulbe — CEO & Whole Time Director
Analysts:
Ashutosh Somani — Analyst
Amit Dixit — Analyst
Rajesh Majumdar — Analyst
Parthiv — Analyst
Ritesh Shah — Analyst
Ritwik Sheth — Analyst
Tushar Chaudhari — Analyst
Sumangal Nevatia — Analyst
Kirtan Mehta — Analyst
Ashish Kejriwal — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, please stay connected. The call will begin shortly hello, ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Jindal Stainless Limited Q4 FY ’25 Earnings Conference Call hosted by JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your Touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr Ashutor Somani from JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Ashutosh Somani — Analyst
Thanks, operator, and welcome everyone to the call. I’ll first thank Stainless for giving JM Financial the opportunity to host today’s call. Without much ado, I’ll hand over the call to Sharma, Head, Investor Relations, Jindal Stainless, to introduce the management. Over to you,.
Shreya Sharma — Head of Investor Relations
Thank you, Ashutosh. Good evening, everyone, and a warm welcome on Q4 FY ’25 and full year’s earnings call. From the management team, we have with us Mr Jindal, Managing Director; and Mr Tarun, CEO and Whole-Time Director. We have shared our Q4 FY ’25 earnings presentation with the stock exchanges, which is also available on our company’s website and today’s call discussion will be on the same lines. Please note some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature and is covered by the disclaimer on Slide 2 of the earnings presentation. Now I would like to hand it over to our Managing Director, Mr. Over to you, sir.
Abhyuday Jindal — MD & Executive Director
Thank you. Thank you, Shreya, and good evening to everyone and welcome to the Q4 FY ’25 earnings call. I would first like to discuss the key business highlights for the quarter-ending March 2025, following which Mr Kulbe will take you through our operational and financial performance. So as we reflect on the economic landscape, India continued to demonstrate strong resilience and growth momentum. As we know, IMF has recently projected India’s GDP growth at 6.2% for 2025. This positive outlook provides a significant advantage to the stainless steel sector, which is closely correlated with GDP growth. And building on this momentum, our sales volume in FY ’25 grew by 9% on a year-on-year basis, supported mainly by strong domestic demand-driven by railway sector, automotive industry, infra and strategic projects in oil and gas, power and other industrial sectors. We are also witnessing robust demand in the Pipe and tube segment with our branding initiative of Jindal Sathi playing a pivotal role in driving growth and improving our market-share. However, on the global front, though the uncertainties prevail, the outlook remains directionally positive as now there is a level-playing field to export in the US market with better parity on the duty front, which is expected to support our competitive positioning. Additionally, we are seeing signs of recovery across Europe. While Germany is currently experience — experiencing some challenges, we expect a positive turnaround supported by fiscal stimulus measures. We are also continually exploring new markets and actively expanding our presence in key regions such as Japan, South Korea and the Middle-East to name a few. I’m also happy to share that we have acquired a 9.62% stake in M1 Exchange. This is India’s leading RBI license threads platform. This investment is expected to create strong synergies by digitizing the supply-chain ecosystem and reducing the working capital cycle, paving the way for cheaper credit access for our entire global value chain, including the deep tier channel. First, on the ESG front, I’m happy to share that we have now — we now host the largest captive solar plant in the state of Orissa with a cumulative capacity of over 30 megawatts. This initiative will reduce our CO2 emissions by 32,000 metric tons per annum, substantially lowering the facility’s reliance on conventional grade electricity. We also signed an 11 megawatt long-term power purchase agreement for our subsidiary JSL Supersteel with Energy to achieve our net zero targets. On a group level, currently 11% of our Group’s power consumption is met through renewable sources. With the commission — with the commissioning of — of all our announced renewable projects, this share is expected to rise significantly to around 30% to 35%, marking a major step forward in our sustainable journey. With this, I would like to hand over to Mr to discuss our operational and financial performance. Thank you.
Tarun Khulbe — CEO & Whole Time Director
Thank you. Hey, everyone. Thank you, Vid. Good day, everyone. Welcome to the call. I would like to begin by providing a detailed overview of our operational and financial performance, starting with the quarterly results followed by the full-year highlights. We delivered record sales on a sequential basis to 6,42,641 metric tons in Q4, an increase of 13% year-on-year and 9% on quarter-on-quarter on the back of robust domestic demand. Our Q4 EBITDA stood at INR1,061 crores, affected by unfavorable global economic conditions leading to stainless steel pricing pressure and negative inventory valuation. In FY ’25, we delivered our highest-ever sales volume, an increase of 9% on a year-on-year basis. Despite our exports falling 24% during the period, basis showcasing robustness in domestic demand for stainless tea. Our EBITDA stood at INR4,667 crores. On the balance sheet side, despite FY ’25 being the year of significant investment with around INR4,570 crores spent on the acquisition and capex, we successfully maintained our net-debt at INR4,005 crores, in-line with March ’24. This reflects our continued focus on working capital optimization and preserving a strong balance sheet. We believe this position — we believe this position us well in navigating the current global macroeconomic challenges. On the leverage side, we are comfortably placed with net-debt to EBITDA below 1 at 0.86%. I would like to inform you that as part of JCL’s recent buyback offer of 21.13% for INR158.40 crore along with the earliest take sale of 4.87% in 2024, JSL has now fully exited its 26% holding in JCL. This complete divestment has yielded a total consideration of INR194.89 crores. I would like to inform that the Board of Directors has approved a final dividend payment of INR2 for Q4 FY ’25, taking total dividend payment for FY ’25 to INR3, which is 150% per FPT share with a face value of INR2 each. Furthermore, to optimize cash flows at the Group level during quarter-four FY ’25, JUSL declared a dividend of INR245 crores to JSL. This brings my remarks to a close. I would now like to hand it over to the moderator to begin the question-and-answer session
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their Touchstone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and 2. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles the first question is from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities. Please go-ahead.
Amit Dixit
Yeah, hi. Good evening, everyone and thanks for the opportunity. Congratulations for a good performance under very challenging circumstances. So couple of questions. The first one is on EBITDA per ton. Now in Q4, we saw EBITDA per ton dropping below 14,000 after quite a few quarters, actually quite many quarters. So just wanted to understand the profitability trajectory from here because export sales don’t seem to be going up as a percentage of overall and other conditions possibly remain similar. So how do we see EBITDA per ton trajectory going from here? And what would be the guidance for FY ’26? That is my first question. Thank you.
Abhyuday Jindal
Thank you, Amit. I’ll take the first question. So we are already seeing some improvement in our EBITDA per ton margin in Q1 of FY ’26. And overall, now we’re giving a consolidated guidance for the entire year between 19,000 to 21,000 EBITDA per ton. And definitely, like you’re saying, we are seeing some improvement signs in export. So even though we are announcing a 10% export volume, this is at a higher base. So compared to last financial year, we’ll actually — we are hopeful that we should get at least a 25% to 30% growth in our export.
Amit Dixit
Okay. That’s great. The second one is essentially, recently we signed an MOU with government of Maharashtra for a considerable investment over here. Now we do have a pair land at Cromini as well. So just wanted to understand, are we still evaluating both the options or we plan to expand it both these locations? I mean, how is it going to be in future? Thank you.
Abhyuday Jindal
MR., would you like to take this up and I’ll add-on?
Tarun Khulbe
Sure, sir. So actually, we are constantly looking at our future growth because our — our land availability at both the plant gradually is coming to the complete utilization. So we are looking for a long-term growth and definitely we have evaluated all this. But eventually, we have found that Maharashtra is one of our major market, a major — major market. And also looking at the — looking at the kind of sport and the conditions, which we believe are quite favorable to the industry, we feel that for our next larger growth, larger growth plant, Maharashtra is something what we have zeroed on. Land, we will keep on evaluating for the other possibilities as and when they arrive and then we will make our decision accordingly.
Abhyuday Jindal
Yes, absolutely. So like Mr Kulway said, we definitely are evaluating both states in absolute detail. But as of now, Maharashtra is a state that is giving us more support, more incentives, our customer-base is the biggest. So we’ll be very close to the customer. So from all sets and purposes, Maharashtra is looking like the one that we’re going to take forward. But like we mentioned, this is a little long-term project for us and we will be taking it in that manner only.
Amit Dixit
So the ultimate capacity of this plant that would be set-up in Maharashtra, would it be similar to Jashpur? Is it fair to assume that?
Abhyuday Jindal
It will be bigger. It will be — we are looking at close to almost 4 million tonnes, but over a period of 15 years, if you say.
Amit Dixit
Okay, so 4 million tons over a period of 15 years.
Abhyuday Jindal
Yes.
Amit Dixit
Okay, great. Thank you so much and all the best.
Abhyuday Jindal
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Rajesh from B&K Securities. Please go-ahead.
Rajesh Majumdar
Yeah, good evening, sir, and thanks for the opportunity. So sir, just on the EBITDA per tonne, if I were to ask you a question that this figure of INR19,000 to INR21,000 is a standalone figure, right, not including JUSL.
Abhyuday Jindal
Consolidated, taking JUSL,, everything combined, now we would like to give a consolidated.
Rajesh Majumdar
Okay. Okay. So it’s a consolidated figure. Okay. And sir, how — how sure are we of this because earlier we had guided a range of 18,000 to 20k and more or less we are following that number for the last 3/4 and then suddenly we dropped to INR13,800. So would you say 4Q was a free quarter and if so, for what reason specifically, if you could give us some kind of clarity on that.
Abhyuday Jindal
So again, Q4 definitely was one of the lowest EBITDA per ton that we have witnessed in the last multiple quarters actually and there were two, three factors to that. One thing is that we saw — we saw a dip in nickel prices. So generally, when that happens, there are always some ripple effects and it takes time to pass it that on to the customer, which is an inventory kind of hit we need to take. Secondly, that was the same time when this whole trade uncertainty started with Mr Trump taking over. And so a lot of our bookings exports were put under pressure or on-hold. So we had to push more volumes into the domestic market. And always, like we mentioned that if we can definitely cater more-and-more to the domestic market and we can take a bigger share, but then we’ll have to drop our margins a little bit. So we did give a substantial volume growth in Q4. It is the higher sales that we have done, but that put a little pressure on our margins. And like we said already in Q1, we are seeing the recovery happen. We’re seeing our export bookings also picking-up, better margins picking-up, which is why we are quite confident of this 19% to 21% for this financial year. MR.
Tarun Khulbe
Yes, yes, sir. I’m just adding to that. Absolutely, you have — while you have totally answered it. So just to add that as we could have seen that even from Q3 onwards, the nickel had in various forms, the prices have started falling. And normally, while this nickel volatility — volatility — volatility, we are able to pass-on to the customers, but with some lag is what has happened. So definitely the uncertainty of those various policies and then coupled with all these pricing the pressure, all that definitely puts pressure on our pricing. At the same time, we did our best-ever quarterly sales, 13% on say a sequential-quarter basis, we made highest-ever sales. So I think these factors together led to this lower EBITDA per ton. But yes, here onwards, we — because we believe the way we see the thing, the dust has settled down globally also the export market also we can see in fact, now we are finding ourselves in a better position because with the clarity of Trump tariff, so-called, we are finding that as a country, we are now in a better position. Earlier, our competing countries like South Korea, Japan, EU, they were not having that 25% of tariff which India was having, but now all of us are having the same tariff and that also is helping us in increasing our volumes and gaining a better share in the American market as well as even in the Europe, we see some better traction. So coupled all these things put together, we believe that our margin should be better than the Q4 going-forward. And whatever the guidance we are providing, that is the basis of our confidence.
Rajesh Majumdar
Right, sir. My second question is on your balance sheet. I think your debt levels are pretty low given the fact that you had substantial capex as well as payments towards investments last year. So my question is, is the investments in the Indonesian subsidiaries still pending? And if so, how much? And what is the capex left in India for this financial year
Tarun Khulbe
So on this, actually on the higher levels like for the net-debt being — being lower, two major factors or three major factors I’ll say. One, yes, we had the — we had given the guidance that we’ll be making a capex of INR5,500 crores, which the actual number is INR405, 70 because there is a sum spillover. So that spillover will come in this year. That is one. Another factor is that INR152 crores we also gained by selling the JCL — by the divestment of JCL shares. And then we also release some working capital by some better managed bank. So all these factors put together, we are able to reduce the net-debt.
Shreya Sharma
And on your second question, the intonation investment, I believe you’re talking about the JV for SMS operations. So over a year, half of the payment has already been released in this FY ’25 financial year and the balance half what we expect to release in this FY ’26, yeah. So that is something which is going as per the plan and the project is also progressing as per the plan.
Rajesh Majumdar
So right now explain what FY ’26 is going to be around INR2,70 crores to INR2,800 crores.
Tarun Khulbe
Including investments, right, including investments.
Shreya Sharma
Not the. Yeah, that includes our investments. Yeah. So basically, the INR5,500 crores it includes both investments on account of acquisitions that we have done or we have announced in FY ’25 and plus the capex which was there, including the maintenance sustainable capex.
Rajesh Majumdar
Right. And just a bookkeeping question. There is a loan received back from related parties of INR1,070 odd crores. Is this from JCL or what is it?
Shreya Sharma
No, basically, this is something to do with the — actually we are unwinding the transaction that we have done with the Evergrade. So earlier if you noticed at in the beginning, when we acquired the, it was rooted through Evergrade and the final. So it is just finding of transaction that we have doing in that space, just for the better overall tax management.
Thank you.
Abhyuday Jindal
Yeah. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of from Anand Rathi. Please go-ahead.
Parthiv
Hi, thank you for the opportunity. Sir, my first question is pertaining to Nikhil. So if you see over last couple of quarters, right, and even if you see the global data, the nickel been at a bit of oversupply globally, right? And even if you see at the warehouses, the inventory is still holding up at an elevated level compared to the other non-ferrous at the end-of-the day. So just wanted to know your — what is your guidance, especially on the nickel pricing for the current FY, if you can guide something, because nickel has been one of the — has been our and compared to its other.
Tarun Khulbe
Okay. Okay, sir. So see nickel definitely, as you said that supply-and-demand, yeah, there is always particularly in the NPI form that situation is there. And definitely, it puts pressure on the nickel pricing and NPA pricing as well. But at the same time, predicting what prices it would go is a bit difficult because ultimately it’s a commodity. But what we see is that the kind of pricing that Nikhil is maintaining when it goes below this, our understanding is that it is bringing a lot of pressure on the NPI producers. And as we have seen, many of the NPI producers have closed their plant because they could not sustain that pressure. The good thing is that in Indonesia, the efficiency or the cost of production of the nickel is one of the lowest. Our partners are also one of the most — having them one of the best efficiencies in the world. So we believe that we still are able to — or rather I’ll say that our cost be the least affected. Effect would be there and — but eventually no to predict the price is a difficult thing, but looks like to be bottom out kind of a thing and here onwards, okay, there can remain some fluct the fluctuation or the volatility, but let’s see, you to add something.
Abhyuday Jindal
And if I can further add that always that the reason that we went to Indonesia for nickel pig iron was the main reason was raw-material security. If you see globally now with all this protectionism happening with a C-band and ESG taking such a front and we were always scrap dependent player and we saw that certain countries have started banning scrap or protecting their materials. And being a 3 million ton player going to four versus then our expansion, we definitely needed some nickel security and Indonesia as a country had also started banning nickel — nickel over export. So that is the main reason that we went to Indonesia.
Parthiv
Okay. Thank you for the elaborate — elaborate response, sir. Sir, my second question is pertaining to your three entities what you have acquired over last couple of quarters that is, Rahi and, right? I believe has already started its operations. So just wanted to know what exactly is the capacity utilization and when can you expect a complete ramp-up. As far as Ravid is concerned, I believe there were some issues. I think the production was not yet started, right? If I’m not wrong, right? So just wanted to get a clarity on it. And my last question, if I may squeeze is just pertaining to the ratio between 200, 300 and 400 for the current quarter.
Tarun Khulbe
Yeah. So on, what I can tell you is that when we took over this plant, this plant was closed for almost four years — but within six months of our taking over, we are able to start the plant. And within the three, four months of now operation, we started it from December onwards. We are already — we are already hitting it or running it or hitting the capacity utilization of, say, around 55% to 60%. And we believe by the Q3, Q4 of this FY ’26, I think we should be — we should be around 70% 75% of capacity utilization. So that is on. What is the other one? Okay. On Raviran. On Traviran, as strategically, we are using right now that plant more of value-added product. We have some polishing line there. We are creating or we are producing value-added products. Yes, pipe and tubes, we are not producing over there strategically, I mean we have that isn’t that call we have taken. So we are focusing more on producing the value-added products from there. Rathi, again, we are running and now around 75% of capacity utilization, we are able to — we are able to run that plant also at that level. And in that plant, we are focusing and gradually increasing our rebar — is rebar production from there. Okay. And yeah, because this stainless steel rebars, gradually we are finding in particularly in coastal regions and all this acceptance and demand is there in the infra projects.
Parthiv
All right, sir. And so just if you can quickly, you know, get back on the 200, 300 and 400 series breakup for the quarter.
Shreya Sharma
Sure. Yeah,, I’ll stay-in the sequence of 200, 300 and 400 series. So for the quarter it was 37%, 47% and 16%
Parthiv
And yeah perfect. Thank you so much.
Abhyuday Jindal
Thank you. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We will take the next question from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec India. Please go-ahead.
Ritesh Shah
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, I think you indicated INR19,000 to INR21,000 of consol level EBITDA per ton guidance, is my reading right?
Abhyuday Jindal
Yes.
Ritesh Shah
Correct. Sir, what will be the proportionate volume growth that we are looking at for FY ’26 and if any color on ’27 as well?
Abhyuday Jindal
So we’re quite comfortable of 9% to 10% volume growth for FY ’26.
Ritesh Shah
Okay. This is lower than what historically we have indicated on the guidance. Is it more to do with the macro or are there any other variables that we are looking that it plays out or any specific large orders that you would like to highlight?
Abhyuday Jindal
No, it’s more on — it’s more on the macros and as more clarity comes in the global trade scenario, I think we can definitely come with a higher guidance, but I think 9% to 10% we are quite comfortable. MR., would you like to add something?
Tarun Khulbe
No, sir, I think this is what — at this stage, this is what the guidance we are providing?
Ritesh Shah
Sure. And can you highlight capex guidance for ’26 and ’27 and if you could provide a broad split over there?
Tarun Khulbe
Yeah. So for FY ’26, the capex guidance we are providing around INR2,700 crores.
Shreya Sharma
So Ritesh, this is — there is no new capex which is added in this INR2,700 crores. So what has happened in last FY ’25, there are certain capex which we are moving in — which are getting spilled over into FY ’26. So those capex plus what was already announced when we came up with a larger INR5,700 crore plan. So put together both the amount, it is somewhere around INR2,700 crores spent that we see for FY ’26.
Ritesh Shah
Sure. And would it be possible for you to detail the rationale behind the recent acquisitions, the smaller ones that we have done, specifically on the tech side?
Abhyuday Jindal
Okay. Yeah, I can take that. So this is actually a very interesting and a very, I would say, good step taken by us. The basic idea is to reduce our working capital burden by providing more credit to our customers, not directly, but through this platform. So that was the basic idea to get closer to the larger customers, larger supplier base also go directly, let’s say, do the source of supply and provide credit to them, provide this facility to them so that we get some benefit in terms of pricing also, we are able to expand our reach. So we are quite bullish and quite excited about this acquisition actually. I mean investment.
Ritesh Shah
Sure. Just last follow-up. On working capital, what you indicated possible to quantify what sort of advantage that will get-out of it over two years, three years? And secondly, on the reported numbers, payable days have also increased substantially. Is there any one-off over there or is it structurally a number that we should be looking at?
Abhyuday Jindal
, can you take this one out?
Shreya Sharma
You — is your question linked to the — what is the advantage that we’re going to get with this Mine Solution acquisition?
Ritesh Shah
Yeah, that is one. And secondly, on the reported numbers, payable days have increased. Is there a one-off or is it something different which has happened this time around?
Shreya Sharma
Yeah, sure. So I’ll take the first one first. So basically, with the acquisition of Mine Solution, this is going to support our working capital reduction in a way because as we are growing on the volume side, we are also targeting our customers, which are OEMs and the direct — more direct sales to the deep tier market. So there it is going to support the — the overall working capital and whatever is the utilization rate today because there is — they also goes into the vendor financing and the customer financing. So it is going to overall improve the working capital situation for the company at the group level. I hope that helps you understand
Ritesh Shah
And the increase in payable days from 24 to 21
Shreya Sharma
So there is also on the working capital side, internally, we are doing some changes in the — for the better optimization of the working capital. So there are certain advanced payments that we used to do it to the vendors. Now we have moved it on to LC payments. So that is one of — also one of the reason for the increase in payable days that you see.
Ritesh Shah
Sure. And FY ’27 capex number? I’ll just join back the queue after this.
Shreya Sharma
So capex number for FY ’27, it will also some part of it depend on how much is going to be spent from FY ’26. And I think the more clarity when we get by mid of the financial year, so we will provide you the number for ’27 as well.
Ritesh Shah
Yeah, sure. I’ll join back the queue. Thank you.
Abhyuday Jindal
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Ritrik Sheth from One-up Financials. Please go-ahead.
Ritwik Sheth
Yeah. Hi, good evening, sir. Sir, just a couple of questions. Sir, first of all, have you done any representation with the government for the high amount of imports on the stainless steel in the country? And any — would you like to comment on this?
Abhyuday Jindal
No, absolutely. This dialogue is continuously on with the government. And even in our last call, I mentioned that the government is definitely receptive to the fact that globally there is a lot of protectionism going on. India as a country is relatively open and growing. So there is definitely threat to injury. And one thing that we discussed and with our data and everything that safeguard was not the right step to take for stainlessly. It is short-term in nature and the data was not supporting a safeguard implementation. So now what we are working with the government is actually on anti-dumping duty for stainless steel, where according to them, they are quite confident that this can sail through room. We are just currently, I would say, collating the data and we’ll be applying for it within this month, hopefully.
Ritwik Sheth
Okay. And what would be a reasonable response time that you would expect? Because last call you had mentioned that we are running behind the steel industry by a month. So
Abhyuday Jindal
That was when I mentioned that was a safeguard and then we went and had the discussion with, which they then recommend after that, that let’s apply for anti-dumping. So that’s why I’m saying the data collection is being worked upon right now as we speak. So hopefully within end of this month, we should apply.
Ritwik Sheth
Okay. And say three months would be a reasonable time to get some response from the government?
Abhyuday Jindal
I — that is then on the government to be honest, but you can take maybe three to six months, definitely we should get some provision duty. Okay. We will definitely be pushing and we’ll definitely be pushing and making all efforts from our side.
Ritwik Sheth
Okay. Got it. Got it. And the second question is on the capex combination update. For the Indonesia JV and the Jarpur downstream capacity, capacity is it on-schedule to be completed by end of next year?
Abhyuday Jindal
Yes. Yeah, SMS JV will definitely come up by mid of next year and also our downstream capacity also by end of — Mr Purday, mid of next year-to-end of next year?
Tarun Khulbe
Yes, yes, sir, that is what we are targeting.
Abhyuday Jindal
Yeah.
Ritwik Sheth
Okay. Okay. And sir, just a hypothetical question. We have slightly reduced our EBITDA per tonne range given the macro-environment. But just in case this input — the anti-dumping duty is Levidence industry, would the volume increase for us
Abhyuday Jindal
And the margin volume and margin should increase for us.
Ritwik Sheth
Okay. Okay. So that would — okay, got it. Okay. That’s a good thing. Right. Okay. Okay. Thank you, sir, and all the best.
Abhyuday Jindal
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Tushar Choudhary from Prabhudha Slilladher. Please go-ahead.
Tushar Chaudhari
Yeah. Thanks a lot, sir for the opportunity. Sir, in this quarter, if I look at your numbers, is there any one-off in other expenses or any of the expenses? Why I’m asking is basically cream prices have also come off. Nickel and stainless steel were largely — nickel has fallen on a quarter-on-quarter basis, but on a Y-o-Y basis, it is largely stable — I mean flattish. So why the decline in EBITDA per ton last year we had given basically there was impact of negative inventory valuation also as well as the impact of red sea event. So was there anything this quarter?
Abhyuday Jindal
Yeah. So like we mentioned, I mentioned it yourself quarter-on-quarter there has been a dip in nickel prices. So that is why Q4 was a little. Yeah, Mr, you were saying something
Tarun Khulbe
No, no, sir. I think in the initial questions also we explained this that there was a pricing pressure for different reasons on a steel and that is what pushed our —
Abhyuday Jindal
So if I repeat — if I repeat, one was on the nickel, like you mentioned already, quarter-on-quarter there was a dip. And secondly, it is that because Mr Trump had come in at the same time beginning January, Feb and made those announcements. So that put the global trade supply into a bit of a confusion tailspain, everyone was waiting and watching what’s going to happen. So despite that, we pushed a volume into the domestic market. And as always, and we push more-and-more into domestic market, we have to enter into the low-margin sectors because already the high-margin, high-quality sectors, we already have a majority market-share. So those are the two main factors that led to a drop-in our EBITDA per ton margin, which already Q1 is seeing that recovery.
Tushar Chaudhari
Okay. Okay. And sir, I missed your first — this thing also. You said you were saying regarding exports, it should grow by 25% in FY ’26, that’s what
Abhyuday Jindal
— over last year. Over last year’s export volume
Tushar Chaudhari
Over FY ’25. But then — so do you expect domestic to slow-down or because
Abhyuday Jindal
Not at all, not at all. Again, it is from — again, the idea is always to maximize EBITDA. So if export is giving us better — better margins, then I don’t need to enter those low-margin sectors in the domestic market. You understand. So that’s why we will give a little more capacity to export and we’re getting better margins there. So domestic market in India is definitely the fastest-growing market growing at 10% to 12%, which is exactly why we are planning our next round of expansion in Maharashtra.
Tarun Khulbe
So just to add, sir, Tushar, as Mr said that we are definitely aiming at this export market. But at the same time, we are not — we are not ignoring the domestic one. And in the export, while we are aiming it, but at the same time, we are very much aware of the fact that globally the situations also change and they are very dynamic in nature. So our objective remains this, but yes, but we are — alternately, we are always prepared to move-in the direction where the best-value is available.
Tushar Chaudhari
Understood. Understood. Sir, last if I could squeeze in this Maharashtra project which you’re talking about, can we expect first-line to come in FY ’31 or something?
Tarun Khulbe
It’s a bit long-short, but yeah, normally the greenfield projects in India in general take four to five years gas station period is there. So your guess is probably the mine guess as well.
Tushar Chaudhari
And now, we are not going to expand anywhere, basically on the 400 acre land which we have. That is only
Tarun Khulbe
I think we have already stated that land we have and we are constantly evaluating as the — for Maharashtra project, we have already explained when project as and when we get any suitable facility plan or objective will do over there. But at this stage, no. At this stage, Maharashtra for the larger project, Maharashtra is the place where we are working upon.
Tushar Chaudhari
Okay, sir. Thanks a lot.
Abhyuday Jindal
Thanks a lot.
Operator
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities. Please go-ahead.
Sumangal Nevatia
Yeah, good evening. Thank you for the chance. I just missed a few details on the Maharashtra greenfield expansion project. Please excuse if it’s already discussed. I just wanted to understand by when are we looking to kind of take a final call or is it near-term in next one or two quarters, it’s more like towards the end of FY ’26. And also I wanted to know what is the size in the first phase and any ballpark thumb-rule you can help us with as far as the investment amount is concerned for Phase-1?
Tarun Khulbe
So okay. Just to tell you that on the Maharashtra project, normally for these kind of projects, always the first step is to get an approval or get into an understanding with the government, which we have already done. We have signed an MOU. In a way, we have a project approval from the government that they are going to support us for this project. The next step goes is scouting for land, suitable land and all, which the process is on. And then we will start the project because in India, the land and acquisition of land also is a process, which one has to go through. The second thing is that this project is going to come in phases. It is not that at one-go we are going to put all the facilities. In fact, in all our plans are to put this project into the phases like 1, 1 million tonne at one-time. That’s how we plan it. And I think so-far as investments and those guidance is concerned, give us some more time once we start doing a bit detailing about the equipment and total facilities, which of course we have just rough working, but once we have more some detailing once we do, we will provide you that guidance as well?
Sumangal Nevatia
Understood. And just one thing, I mean, whenever we finally decide to announce, will that be once we have the entire land in possession or as in — when the site is identified and there is some progress on land,
Tarun Khulbe
We will announce and gradually acquire the remaining part of the land. We will come at the appropriate time. I mean, just I mean this is what would be the more appropriate answer at this stage. We will come at the appropriate time and announce it.
Sumangal Nevatia
Got it, got it. Thank you and all the best.
Abhyuday Jindal
Thanks. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. We take the next question from the line of Kirtan Mehta from Baroda BNP Paribas Mutual Fund. Please go-ahead.
Kirtan Mehta
Thank you, sir, for the opportunity. Coming back to the margin drop-in the Q4, we have seen the sharp drop-in this Q4 as well as the last Q4. In this connection, just wanted to understand the sort of the raw-material valuation policy that we use for valuing in the inventory and is there any particular policy which impacts the cumulative impact gets recognized in Q4.
Tarun Khulbe
Well, I think rather than saying it as a part of policy overall, it could be a coincidence probably, which is how we should look at this. I mean, because the side incidentally, in both the years, the movement of the raw-material prices are a bit similar in nature and that is why you are seeing the results similar in this. This is not something like we are creating any policy for Q4 specifically or anything of that.
Abhyuday Jindal
As a company, we don’t do any as a company, we don’t do any sort of hedging. So this is all back-to-back.
Kirtan Mehta
Right, and second question was about our consol guidance of INR19 to INR21 K per ton for FY ’26, are we assuming any benefit of the anti-dumping duty or irrespective of the anti-dumping duty will be comfortable to deliveries
Abhyuday Jindal
As things stand right now, we are quite confident of achieving 1921, if anti-dumping or any other macroeconomic factor benefits us, we should be able to come with a higher guidance.
Kirtan Mehta
Sure. And in terms of nickel or other variable also will be passed-through because in a longer-term debt really don’t impact. It’s only the quarterly impact that it creates, but it’s more or less pass-through even that should not have an impact.
Abhyuday Jindal
Correct. Correct.
Kirtan Mehta
Yeah, I’m getting back.
Abhyuday Jindal
Sorry, please go-ahead.
Kirtan Mehta
On to the Maharashtra, basically in terms of the process-wise, the way you highlighted, it would be first would be the MO. Second is basically the land. Third would be the — basically the — probably the environmental and other approvals. So in terms of would you sort of give us a bit of a timeline when this project, when we can look at the zero-debt and the specific activity towards the zero-debt?
Tarun Khulbe
See, normally, rather than just the steps what you are what you have stated, they are absolutely correct. Therefore, any greenfield, the first step is the approval, then the land, then the environment clearance you get normally on the basis of the project, whatever you plan and then you start building up the plant. Normally this in India, in general, for our size of greenfield plant, the time is in general, the gestation period is around four to five years. And that is what we are also estimating.
Kirtan Mehta
Sure. And in terms of the project capex-wise, we have previously said that the first phase could be a bit larger because we create the infrastructure for the entire for facility and then the second and third where the costs are significantly lower. So in that sense, could you also give us a ballpark figure for the 4 million ton and how much percentage of that would be in the first phase?
Abhyuday Jindal
So while in what you said, we will — we will come back with the correct details when the time is right. This is — we are still in the planning phase and all these details we will share openly with the — with all our stakeholders.
Kirtan Mehta
Sure, sir. Thank you. I’ll get back-in the queue.
Abhyuday Jindal
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Ashish from Nuvama Institutional Equities. Please go-ahead.
Ashish Kejriwal
Yeah. Thanks, everyone. Thanks for opportunity. Sir, a couple of questions. One, I think FY ’25 is one year where we have already started our NPI project. So is it possible to share what kind of profitability we are generating over there or still it’s a loss-making because it has not reached to the optimum level.
Tarun Khulbe
So on NPI, I think we have earlier also stated that we have started the project. It is ramping-up and in the next couple of quarters, we believe that we should be reaching to the capacity utilization of say 75% to 80%. But at the same time, so-far as pricing is concerned, Ashish, yes, we all understand that there is a lot of volatility in the nickel and these what the — what kind of profitability and all this also keeps on fluctuating because of this volatility. Well, in the long-run, while we are quite — we believe that this is going to be a beneficial project, but at the same time, when we have invested, we also look at it as a strategic project by which we get a — we get a raw-material security because of this NPI investments, we are one of the — we are into one of the unique strong position where we can use because as a seamless steel producer, we need nickel. So we can get nickel in the form of a scrap. We can get nickel in the form of NPI and also we can get nickel in the form of clars in case we buy or in case we bring from our JV, which we are putting up in Indonesia. So for us, this is a part of our long-term strategy and we believe that this will — this strategy will help the organization in the longer run because globally it’s going to be a lot of uncertainty is expected in the longer run, whether it is scrap or NPI or the nickel availability. Because in any case, there is no nickel.
Ashish Kejriwal
Understood, sir. So raw-material security is fine, but when we are looking at the profitability, is it possible to even share that at what nickel price we can be breakeven?
Tarun Khulbe
Nickel price to the extent in a way, you can see that if it is LME more than 15,000 to 15,000, then breakeven kind of a thing we can expect. But then again, as I told you, Ashish, this keeps on changing because on the ore, what kind of premium is going on the ore, what kind of you know, royalties can change? There are lot of different possibilities which are remaining and situation is a bit dynamic.
Ashish Kejriwal
Understood, sir. Second question is at our plant because if I remember correctly, this plant initially was planned for 3.6 million tonne at ultimate capacity. So my question is, is there any surplus land available at where we can in future, if we wish, we can expand capacity either full or some part of downstream expansion or that is almost over.
Abhyuday Jindal
So downstream, definitely we can expand, Ashish in Jashpur, which is what we are doing next two years. But after that, it will be kind of full because we also need to leave 30% of Green bell. So because of that factor, the land is kind of getting fully utilized in Jashpur. But for downstream and for certain balancing, there is definitely availability maybe to set-up another million tonne of stainless steel that availability is not there.
Ashish Kejriwal
Understood. And sir, lastly, when we are guiding for 19,000 to 21,000, obviously, we will have visibility for first-quarter that now exports are recovering and whatever we have seen in the 4th-quarter that could be one-off because of inventory valuation effect and all. So do we think that the guidance which 19% to 21% we are seeing, we can — it is visible in first-quarter itself or will it take something else which can extend it further?
Abhyuday Jindal
No already it is visible in Q1.
Ashish Kejriwal
Okay. Okay. So ’19 is possible in Q1. And then any other thing which can lead us to take it to closer to our upper-end of the guidance?
Abhyuday Jindal
Definitely like if some anti-jumping annuity comes in or further clarity in Trump tariffs and everything comes in, then we will come with a higher guidance, but maybe after a few more months.
Ashish Kejriwal
Understood, sir. Understood. Thank you and all the best.
Abhyuday Jindal
Thank you
Operator
Thank you. We take the last question from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec. Please go-ahead.
Ritesh Shah
Yeah. Hi, quick ones. Sir, would you like to lay out standalone EBITDA per ton guidance as well? Thank you
Abhyuday Jindal
So Ritesh, now just to give that comfort in terms of we would prefer to give a consolidator, otherwise there was always some confusion in the market so this consol will be better, but anything, Mr, you would like to add to this?
Ritesh Shah
Yeah, the reason why? Yeah, sir, the reason I ask is basically we usually end-up looking at the volumes that the company gives. But incrementally, there will be volumes from. Basically, we understand that the volumes will be rolled into CR. Likewise, it would happen for the downstream assets. So basically, it could just confuse investors and analysts. So that’s the specific reason why you asked for standalone because the base denominator will get larger and hence optically the number will look less on EBITDA per ton. That’s why specifically ask for standalone.
Shreya Sharma
Yeah. So basically, Ritesh, if you notice many of our subsidiaries like Romani NPI, they have just start — and associate like NPI, they have just started the operations. So they are in a very nascent stage as of now. So that’s the reason why we have also decided to have for a FY ’26 to have a consolidated guidance as it will —
Tarun Khulbe
And also because they are into the similar business, Ritesh, the material — there is a transfer from one company to the other company because Chromani is a downstream process only. So in order to avoid that kind of a confusion that what profit here, what profit there, it is better that we talk of the complete business process and that is why all these related business we are putting into the one basket rather than talking about them separately. And that is why we — in fact from the last quarter onwards, we have decided that we will discuss about one all these businesses together. In fact, we believe that otherwise it creates more confusion.
Ritesh Shah
Sure. Just a point over here. Arithmetically, the ask on standalone will actually go larger as we ramp-up the downstream and going-forward. So that was just the point I was trying to lay across. Any particular update on HRAP 1.1 million tonne expansion, I understand we had indicated that it stood deferred last-time. Any update over here?
Tarun Khulbe
So the project is on, the work is going on and in FY ’27 is what this will come into the operation.
Ritesh Shah
So earlier the capex indicated was reduced by INR700 crores, indicating HRAP had been deferred. Now we have indicated the capex for ’26 at INR2,700 crores. Then why — what is the reason for the underlying capex bump if HRFP is already in-progress? Are you undertaking any new projects?
Shreya Sharma
So Ritesh, what Mr is trying to say is that it is something HRAP and CRAP has been — the order booking was somewhere in the lag of around three to four to six months. So — but right now, since the order has been placed, the project is in on-track and we are expecting it to be commissioned in FY ’27. But like I — we mentioned that there is no new capex that we are undertaking. It’s whatever capex for FY ’26 that we have announced of around INR26 crore INR2,700 crores, that is including the spillover capex for FY ’25 to the tune of around INR1,100 and plus what was supposed to be spent in FY ’26, including the maintenance sustainance. But otherwise, there is no new project that we have added in-between?
Ritesh Shah
Sure. That helps. Last question, would you like to call-out for a net-debt number like we did last year and we did pretty well over there just from a guidance standpoint of where we — where you aspire to be end-of-the fiscal?
Tarun Khulbe
Yeah. So Ritesh, net-debt, we are estimating in the range of around INR3,500 crores to INR3,700 crores at the end of FY ’23.
Ritesh Shah
Sure. Thank you so much. All the very best. Thank you for the answers. Appreciate it.
Abhyuday Jindal
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in the interest of time, that was the last question. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Abhyuday Jindal
Thank you. I would like to thank everyone for attending this call. We are optimistic about FY ’26. Globally, we are seeing encouraging signs along with recovery in prices and raw-material prices showing stability, which points to improvement going-forward. The growing adoption of stainless India along with strong momentum in key sectors such as infrastructure, railways further reinforces our confidence in the domestic growth story. I hope that we have been able to answer all your questions. Should you need any further clarification or would like to know more about the company, please feel free-to contact our Investor Relations team, and I would be happy to meet all of you physically as well over the next few months. Thank you once again for joining.
Tarun Khulbe
Thank you.
Shreya Sharma
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you, everyone. On behalf of JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.