Indian Energy Exchange Ltd (NSE: IEX) Q3 2025 Earnings Call dated Jan. 24, 2025
Corporate Participants:
Rohit Bajaj — Joint Managing Director
Satyanarayan Goel — Chairman and Managing Director
Vineet Harlalka — Chief Financial Officer and Company Secretary
Analysts:
Rohan Gheewala — Analyst
Unidentified Participant
Sumit Kishore — Analyst
Yashodhan Nerurkar — Analyst
Bharanidhar Vijayakumar — Analyst
Devesh Agarwal — Analyst
Shaleen Kumar — Analyst
Karan Premchand Gupta — Analyst
Ankit Kanodia — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Indian Energy Exchange Q3 FY ’25 Results Conference Call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr. Rohan Gheewala. Thank you and over to you, sir.
Rohan Gheewala — Analyst
Thank you, Sagar. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.
On behalf of Axis Capital, I’m pleased to welcome you all for the IEX Q3 FY ’25 Earnings conference Call.
We have with us the management team of IEX, which is represented by Mr. S.N Goyal, the Chairman and Managing Director; Mr. Rohit Bajaj, Joint Managing Director; Mr. Vineet Halalka, Chief Financial Officer; Mr. Amit Kumar, Head of Market Operations, New Product Initiatives and Exchange Technology; and Mr. Pat, Head, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications.
We will begin with the opening remarks from Mr. Rohit Bajaj, followed by an interactive Q&A session. Over to you, sir.
Rohit Bajaj — Joint Managing Director
Good afternoon, everyone. Am I audible?
Operator
Yes, sir. You’re audible, loud and clear.
Rohit Bajaj — Joint Managing Director
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. I welcome you all to the IEX earnings call for Q3 FY ’25.
With me today on this call are Mr. Satan Goel, CMD IEX; Mr. Vineet, our CFO and Company Secretary; Mr. Amit Kumar, Head of Market Operations, New Product Initiatives and Exchange Technology; Ms, Head of Investor Relations and Communications; and Mr. Aditya. Hence, the last quarter was a challenging one for the Indian economy.
Economic growth in Q2 experienced a dip on account of weaker private consumption and slowed to 5.4% after more than two years of sustained accelerated growth. Subsequently, the RBI has also revised India’s GDP growth forecast for FY ’25 from 7.2% to 6.6%. However, based on high-frequency indicators of economic activity, RBI expects a recovery in Q3 FY ’25 from the previous quarter’s slowdown driven by increased private consumption.
On the power sector front, electricity demand at 393 BUs during the 3rd-quarter was higher by 3% Y-o-Y, better than the previous quarter’s muted 0.5% growth. Our demand in the country for the first-nine months of FY ’25 has been higher by 5% over the same-period last year. The Ministry of Power has continued to maintain its focus on monitoring capacity addition and strengthening overall power infrastructure. Already 28 gigawatt of thermal capacity is under-construction and about 40 gigawatt is under planning and tendering stage.
In addition, 40 to 50 gigawatts of renewable capacity is to be added every year till 2030. This addition — additional capacity is expected to increase sell-side liquidity on the exchanges in the coming years. On the fuel side, there has been ample availability of coal this fiscal. At 726 million ton, coal production for the first-nine month period from April to December FY ’25 has been higher by 6.1% compared with the same-period last fiscal. Coal is available at a nominal premium of 10% to 20% under the Shakti B8 auction and coal inventory today stands at a healthy 19 days.
Imported coal prices in Q3 have also been competitive at $50 per ton. To meet the growing demand for power, MOP also made adequate provisions to ensure availability for the winter months by extending Section 11 directive to imported coal-based power plant to operate at full capacity up to 28 February 2025. These imported coal-based assets should support liquidity on the exchanges. Gas price at $14 per MMBtu, however, have seen a slight uptick in Q3 compared with $12 per MMBtu in Q2 due to onset of winters and continued geopolitical issues.
Adequate availability of fuel in this quarter led to higher liquidity on the exchange platform as sales quantum increased by 62% on Y-o-Y basis, leading to softening of the prices. For Q3 FY ’25, prices in the dayhead market averaged at INR3.71 per unit, a decline of nearly 26% on year-on-year basis. As prices remain competitive, discoms and commercial and industrial consumer continue to have an opportunity to meet their demand at a competitive prices and optimize their power procurement cost. With these trends, volume growth is expected to continue going-forward. Let us now talk about important regulatory updates and policy initiatives during the quarter that helped deepening of the power markets.
Under the amendments to late payment surcharge, LPSC rules, generating stations which have long-term PPA can now offer an acquisition power in the day-ahead market as well as the real-time market segments. Recent amendments in the LPSC procedures have now also brought the state government-owned generating stations under its ambit, mandating them to offer URS power on the exchange platform. This is expected to further increase liquidity on the exchanges. The deviation settlement mechanism, DSM Regulation 2024 is work-in progress towards renewable integration and grid stability.
Under the proposed amendments, deviation charges are again linked to grid frequency. With regards solar and wind generators, deviation percentage allowed for LeV has been narrowed to 10%. This is expected to help increase RPM volumes at exchanges. With regards to the carbon market, CRC issued draft procedure for trading of carbon credit certificate for both obligated as well as non-obligated entities through power exchanges. This will result in trading of carbon credit certificates on IEX in the near-future. IEX business performance during Q3 FY ’25 has been robust at 30.5 billion units, electricity volumes for the quarter were 16% higher on a year-on-year basis.
For the first-nine months of FY ’25, electricity volume at 89 billion units were higher by 19% Y-o-Y basis. In Q3, a total of 26.5 lakh renewable energy certificates were traded, a jump of 31% over the same quarter last fiscal. REC trading volume touched 110.6 lakh certificates for the first-nine months of FY ’25, a rise of 158% over the same-period in FY ’24. The RTM segment continues to demonstrate strong growth. For Q3 FY ’25, RTM volumes were higher by 30% Y-o-Y at nearly 9.3 billion units, showcasing its critical role in helping discoms as well as open access consumer efficiently manage their short-term electricity requirements. For the first-nine months in FY ’25, 29.3 billion units were traded in this segment, a growth of 29% year-on-year basis.
RTM’s ability to offer flexibility and immediate responsiveness highlights the opportunity to efficiently integrate renewables with the grid. With regards to green market in Q3 FY ’25, volume rose over 300% to nearly 2.5 billion units compared with Q2, Q3 FY ’24. While we continue to await approval from CRC for our long-duration contracts of up to 11 months, a hearing of our petition on the green RTM segment was held recently by the CRC. As per the commission’s direction, we have sought public comments on our proposal. Green RTM would provide an opportunity for RE sellers to avail price premium over conventional power and allow buyers to avail green attributes of electricity.
This segment shall also help reduce deviation exposure due to weather events by providing an avenue to trade green power one-hour in advance. Let me now summarize the financial performance of the company in this quarter. On a consolidated basis, revenue for the company grew 13.7% on a year-on-year basis in Q3 FY ’25, increasing to INR160.5 crores from INR141.2 crores in Q3 FY ’24. Consolidated PAT increased by 16.9% rising to INR107.3 crores in-quarter three of FY ’25 compared with INR91.8 crores in-quarter three of FY ’24. For fiscal year 2025, the Board of Directors of the company announced an interim dividend of INR1.50 equivalent to 150% of the face value of equity shares.
IGH traded volume of 162 lakh MMBtu for Q3 FY ’25 compared with INR84 lakh MMBtu traded in Q3 last fiscal. In the first-nine months of FY ’25, IGX traded volumes of 398 lakh MMBtu, higher by 24% over the same-period in FY ’24. The profit-after-tax for IGX for Q3 FY ’25 came in at INR8.3 crores compared with INR7.4 crores in Q3 FY ’24. For the first-nine months of FY ’25, IGX recorded a PAT of INR22 crores, higher by 18% compared with the same-period last fiscal. Hence development of new market models in the form of battery storage arbitrage, firm and dispatchable renewable energy FDRE or virtual power Purchase Agreement, CPPAs is slated to be the future driver of India’s power market, eventually pressing a successful energy transition. In a recent tender, the price of INR3.52 per kilowatt was discovered for a 2,000 megawatt solar with 1,000 megawatt or 4,000 megawatt energy storage requiring four-hour discharge for one cycle a day.
Storage prices are already competitive to make a promising case for market development and provide enough arbitrage to make it commercially viable. Rates under the VGF scheme have also declined. Visibly battery storage remains poised to improve liquidity during non-solar hours and help meet the power demand. Further, the government recently reiterated its plan for setting up India’s first coal exchange in the calendar year 2025, details of which are being worked out. The draft node for the cabinet for setting up a coal exchange has already been circulated for interministerial consultations. Exchange is expected to work under the supervision of coal control organization.
With a CDA forecast of peak power demand of 458 gigawatt by 2032, power consumption growth will continue to drive exchange volume growth, government’s effort to facilitate the path of energy transition continually support market development. As India marches towards achieving its net zero targets, there is bound to be a growing role of power exchanges in the country’s energy landscape and IEX should continue to be part of this journey.
Thank you. And now we can move towards question-and-answers.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchstone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question comes from Mayuresh M, Individual Investor. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Thank you very much for giving me this opportunity. Am I audible? Do you hear me?
Rohit Bajaj
You are audible.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. First of all thank you for giving me this opportunity and taking my questions and congratulations for the quarterly results. I would just like to know the current…
Rohit Bajaj
There is some disruption in the voicemail.
Operator
Sorry, just one moment, sir. Yes, sir, please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, my question was what is the current revenue breakdown for IEX, IGX, ICX and gold trading in terms of numbers and in terms of percentages?
Satyanarayan Goel
Yeah. I’ll request Mr. Vineet Harlalka, our CFO to respond to this.
Vineet Harlalka
So if you look at the overall numbers for the IEX the IEX standalone PAT was at INR103 crores, which was higher by 15.5% on year-on-year basis — quarterly basis and consolidated PAT was INR107 crores, which was almost 17% higher than the previous year. The IGX standalone PAT for the quarter was INR8.3 crores and which was higher by 13% in corresponding period for the previous year — a quarter from the previous year. And ICL during this quarter made a profit of INR20 lakh against a loss of INR1 crore during the quarter three of financial year ’24.
Unidentified Participant
And how about coal trading?
Satyanarayan Goel
Coal trading, nothing has happened. Coal exchange is still on the paper and only after the approval by the government, they will decide who will do when it will start. I think nothing, no clarity on that.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, all right. Understood. And what are the — what is the expected growth or what are the expected revenues for the next one or two years of FY ’26 and FY ’27 as a whole, and also for the section for the subcompanies like IGX, ICX and IEX.
Satyanarayan Goel
See, as far as IEX is concerned, it is difficult to make any projections. I mean, since it is a technology platform, it all depends on growth in-demand and supply. But looking at what we have achieved in the last four, five years, I think a number of, 15% 20% growth is definitely achievable. In case of gas exchange, at present it’s a challenging business environment with our gas prices are very-high. These are in the range of $14, $15 and at these rates, gas affordability is not there in India. So gas import, I mean gas is not increasing at the rate at which it was expected to increase.
But it is expected that in 2026, ’27, lot many terminals which are under-construction in the countries where the gas is available and that will increase the gas supply in the world and the gas prices are expected them to come down to almost about $8, $9. And if that happens, I’m sure gas consumption in India will increase and gas exchange will should also see a jump-in the volume growth. But it’s difficult to make any projections of this stage now.
Unidentified Participant
Yes, yes, I understand that. And for IEX, considering the fact that the government is promoting a lot of investment in new renewable technologies like wind and solar energy and we have made a lot of progress in the past three years. And also we will be making a lot of progress in the coming years in terms of installations and capacity. Do you think that would help IEX to increase its in volumes by more than 15% maybe after two, three years when this capacity will come into…
Satyanarayan Goel
Yes, that should definitely help, because what we have seen that when there is a good supply, the clearing price on the exchange reduces. And if the clearing price reduces, it provides opportunity to distribution companies to optimize their power procurement cost and also to industrial consumers to optimize their cost. So definitely the volume will increase further. But again you know it’s difficult to make projections for the future growth.
Unidentified Participant
Understand. So the profitability I would say is inversely proportion to the cost. So — or you can say the volumes are inversely proportion to the cost — if the cost of electricity or gas it reduces, the volumes will increase as the companies will try to buy them from exchanges rather than they are normal contracts, which they are signed for higher-cost, right?
Satyanarayan Goel
Yes, you’re right.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, okay. But if the demand also increases with the supply, then maybe this might not be the thing that we are expecting the cost to reduce, it may not happen.
Satyanarayan Goel
But say when demand increases and supply don’t increase, commensurate supply increase don’t happen, then the rate increases and that puts a lot of pressure on the distribution companies. So it is good when both demand and supply increase, then we really see jump-in the volume increase.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah. Okay. Okay. Thank you. Quite understood. Thank you very much for answering my questions and good luck.
Satyanarayan Goel
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go-ahead.
Sumit Kishore
Good afternoon, sir. My first question is, you know, you’ve had very strong volume growth on the collectives day-ahead market RTM. Has that been accompanied with an overall increase in-market share also as of Nine-Month FY ’25. If you could give us the data.
Satyanarayan Goel
In the electricity segment, we are maintaining a market-share of around 83%, 84%. And that was the trend last year also. And this year also we are maintaining the market-share at the same level.
Sumit Kishore
Okay. And what would be your market-share in the REC segment?
Satyanarayan Goel
RHS segment, I think the market-share is about 60%, 65%. But then I see — see, REC is not counted as far as the market-share is concerned. Yeah. REC is done twice in a month and the revenue stream also for RECs, we have reduced the fees. So we quote now these days, electricity market is basically the main market as far as the market-share is concerned. In any case, in electricity market-share is 84.5% and in REC it is about 60%.
Sumit Kishore
Of that 84.5% overall. Okay, sir. And within that for the TAM, including DAC, your market-share is still around 40% or so.
Satyanarayan Goel
Yeah, I mean RTM and DAM is practically 100% and rest of the product it is about 35%.
Sumit Kishore
Okay. Yeah. The second question is, you know, in opening remarks, it was mentioned about the new products and the regulatory developments. So this trade-up to 11 months you know for TAM, how soon can this materialize and similarly on the green RTM front, what is the stage of progress? So if you could sort of break-up the LPFC rules, Green RTM and TAM and the timelines over which you expect these to materialize and the volume uptick they can translate into.
Satyanarayan Goel
So 11 month contract hearings are complete, order is reserved. So it depends on GRC, but then the hearings were complete couple of months back so we are waiting their order. As far as volume in the 11 months contract is concerned, again, it is difficult to say because we already have three months contract and distribution companies normally purchase power on seasonal basis. Only thing is there are few distribution companies who purchase power maybe for the month of June to September, maybe three, four, five months in advance. So maybe that kind of opportunity, if 11 months contracts are approved, we can get that opportunity also in the exchange platform. So that may not be very significant, but then we are waiting CRC order approval on that. RTM, the petition was admitted. We have posted the petition on the website for public comments. Thereafter we will respond to CRC also in those comments and CRC will then have a hearing. It will take some time, maybe a couple of months, three, four months if I take.
Sumit Kishore
Okay. And so in LDC right now, what kind of volumes have you seen in the nine-month period and what has been IEX share?
Satyanarayan Goel
Our volumes, total volumes put all the three exchangers in the LDC has been about 18 billion units and our share is about 38% in that.
Sumit Kishore
18 billion units because this number I think it was just 5.2 billion units as of first-half. So there has been a big uptick in LDC in 3rd-quarter.
Satyanarayan Goel
So this number is term market and GTAM taken together. This is a TAM segment and TAM segment number is…
Rohit Bajaj
5.8 must be for IEX.
Sumit Kishore
Yes, okay. Yes, yes. It’s for IEX.
Rohit Bajaj
For the market market together. For IEX alone, this number is 7.1.
Sumit Kishore
Okay, okay. Just one last question on update on how, if at all market coupling is steady and etc., the events are panning out.
Satyanarayan Goel
So no update. CRD has issued order in the month of February for simulation of the different market segments and submit the report with CRC report is awaited.
Sumit Kishore
So that shadow pilot study, etc done or…
Satyanarayan Goel
Set of pilot report is a. So only when they submit the reports, yes, will take view day-after.
Sumit Kishore
In terms of timeline, you think that this can keep getting delayed for how long?
Satyanarayan Goel
This was to be submitted in the month of July and we are now in the month of January of next year. So already six months are over. So let’s see.
Sumit Kishore
Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants in the conference, please restrict your questions to two at a time. You may join back the queue for follow-up questions. Our next question comes from Rushabh Shah from Agro PMS. Please go-ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Hi, thanks for the opportunity. Am I audible?
Satyanarayan Goel
Hello.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah, am I audible now?
Operator
This is much better. Please go-ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah. So my first questions are. In one of the calls, you mentioned that even if couple, we will be able to defend it and defend the market-share. Could you please explain detail how would you do that? What measure will you take to defend your share? Or we will defend our share?
Satyanarayan Goel
No, no, we did — who your question is not clear. Can you repeat the question?
Unidentified Participant
Sir, in one of the calls you mentioned that even if the coupling happens, you will be able to defend your market-share. So can you explain in detail at this?
Satyanarayan Goel
I don’t think we have ever said that in case of coupling, we will be able to maintain the market-share. What we are always only saying is that even in case of coupling, we are doing lot of customer-centric activities to ensure customer loyalty and we should be able to retain a significant market-share.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Okay. Next question is, as you said that on the sales side, you have thermal generators who are registered with you. So what do you do for engaging more-and-more customers on the platform on what are any incentives you offer for both buy-side as well as sales side?
Satyanarayan Goel
Getting customers on the exchange platform. Today we have all distribution companies are registered with us, all large generators, captive generators, they’re all registered with us, renewable generators, they’re all registered with us. So there is hardly any generator in the market who is not registered with us. We have practically more than 400 generators who are registered with us. So every major sector participants are already registered.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. So practically making 1995% of all of them are registered.
Satyanarayan Goel
Yes, yes, yes. We are participating in the market also.
Unidentified Participant
Yes,. And sir, my last question is the RDC market in India, which is a compliance market. So which type of companies have to take the certificate for compliance and is it important for them to purchase the certificates.
Satyanarayan Goel
See, one is that distribution companies have to meet their RPO obligations, which is specified by Government of India and the state regulators. So there are many states who do not have renewable power with them, so they purchase RECs to meet their RPO obligation. Then there are industrial consumers who have captive generation capacity. So they have to also make the RPO obligation, but they also purchase certificates. There are many steel plants, cement industries, aluminium industries who have large captive generation capacities with them. So they also purchase RECs. Then there are many open access consumers who buy power from the market. So they also have to meet the RPO obligation and they also purchase the certificates.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Sir, my last question is what is your vision for in next five years? And what are the top three priorities for the next four to five years?
Satyanarayan Goel
Can you repeat the question, please?
Unidentified Participant
So what is your vision for IEX in the next four to five years? And your top three priority for the next four to five years.
Satyanarayan Goel
So my vision is to provide a robust, reliable technology platform, so that my all market participants can do trading through this and numbers will depend on the demand and supply growth in the country because demand growth is not dependent, that is not something which we can create. It is a function of demand and supply and we will not like to give any projections on the numbers.
Unidentified Participant
No, sir, I don’t want the projections nothing on the projections.
Satyanarayan Goel
That’s your vision and the priorities for you. I told, I mean growth of 20% is something which we are targeting.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Sure. Thank you so much, sir. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Yashodhan Nerurkar from Ionic Wealth. Please go-ahead.
Yashodhan Nerurkar
Yeah, hi. Thank you for the opportunity. So one question that I had was in terms of the contract for differences. So most of the which are coming in the renewable space, I think there’s some delay from the…
Satyanarayan Goel
Voice is not clear. Can you put the question slightly slowly?
Yashodhan Nerurkar
Just a second. Hello. Is it better now?
Satyanarayan Goel
Yeah, yeah, better now.
Yashodhan Nerurkar
Yeah. So what I was saying is, I was asking in terms of your volume. So something like a contract for differences, would that make a big difference in terms of increasing the volumes at least in the renewable space where we are seeing most of the PPAs, there is a delay in signing by the discoms because the prices are continuously dropping. So would CFD be the ideal solution for you to boost the volume?
Satyanarayan Goel
We are working on this with the government and the renewable generators, but so-far they are not willing to set-up the capacity without the PPA because one of the problems they are facing is that the banks are not willing to land without the PPA. But definitely there are alternate mode of transactions which has been worked out like virtual PPAs, some of the MNCs are working on that also and government is also thinking about that. So that will definitely bring more liquidity in the market and should give a boost to the volume.
Yashodhan Nerurkar
So at least there’s some thought given to it in terms of increasing the liquidity at least in the renewable space to increase the adoption of it. So that’s the whole thought process behind it. Got it. And secondly, I just wanted to understand, so most of the solar parks that we are seeing currently, there — I mean, it is suggested that it should come along with a battery park like a storage battery. So does that reduce the variability of the energy demand? Because I think there’s this consider net metering where post the — like in the as the demands any point that most of the power is trading — traded in the short-term like power market. So with battery storage coming to picture on a larger-scale, would that variability be reduced? And does that reduce the volumes in the exchanges?
Satyanarayan Goel
And wherever battery is coming, that battery most of the generators are setting up additional capacity for charging the battery and supplying that additional power in the mining hours. So battery will ensure availability of larger power during the non-solar hours also and that is good for the market.
Yashodhan Nerurkar
Okay. So that extra power which is getting generated through, I mean, dispatch through the battery, even that could be a part of the short-term power market like through the exchanges.
Satyanarayan Goel
You are right.
Yashodhan Nerurkar
Okay. Okay, okay, perfect. That’s it from my side. Thank you.
Satyanarayan Goel
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Bharani from Avendus Spark. Please go-ahead.
Bharanidhar Vijayakumar
Yeah, good afternoon. Am I audible?
Satyanarayan Goel
Yes, please.
Bharanidhar Vijayakumar
Yeah. Okay. So my first question is on sustainability of this growth we have seen in this nine months period for FY ’25. We have of course seen 16% 17% electricity volume growth when the market has grown at 5%. And my first question is what proportion of this growth or extra growth overall above the country’s growth is due to this price drop.
Satyanarayan Goel
See the demand growth in the country has been in the first-nine months, 5% at precisely 4.8% and our electricity volume growth has been 19%. And though there is no direct correlation between the demand growth and our electricity growth because — but based on the last 10 years data, we find correlation of about 2.5 to 3 times. So 5% growth in-demand should give a demand, let’s say a volume growth of 15% on the exchange platform. But this year volume growth was better because the supply-side, there was lot of improvement and coal prices also were low imported coal prices were also low and government of India also took many initiatives to ensure availability of power. So as a result of all these things, our clearing price also reduced and that resulted in extra volume on the exchange platform.
Bharanidhar Vijayakumar
Okay, understood. So like any idea of the growth if it were — if it were not for the price drop, it would have been only six months, anything like that, meaning…
Satyanarayan Goel
It is very difficult to sort of contributed.
Bharanidhar Vijayakumar
Okay. Understood.
Satyanarayan Goel
Difficult to set it on that way.
Bharanidhar Vijayakumar
Yeah, the coronary question to that is that do you expect this growth to-end in FY ’26 because prices have dropped to 3.5% and that we may not see a growth over and above the base power demand at 5%, 6% in 2026 or if it is going to be again 15%, why would that be again on a base of this year?
Satyanarayan Goel
See, if Indian economy has to grow at a rate of 7%, 8%, then power demand in the country has to definitely grow at a rate of 6%, 7%. And if that happens, we are quite confident that we will be able to achieve a growth of 15% to 20%.
Bharanidhar Vijayakumar
And how much was the open access customer as a proportion in this first-nine months, which would have increased compared to last year.
Satyanarayan Goel
Yeah, open access was about 13% and distribution purchase was about 87%.
Bharanidhar Vijayakumar
Okay. And last year it must-have been very less, right?
Satyanarayan Goel
Pardon?
Bharanidhar Vijayakumar
Last year must-have been very less.
Satyanarayan Goel
Yes, this last year prices were higher, so the number was lower.
Bharanidhar Vijayakumar
So my last question is to just complete the loop on the market coupling discussion. Now you had of course mentioned that we are awaiting the satisfied study. But exactly where-is the process in right now is the software really have the testing or the simulation started, have the exchanges started giving the data for the simulation?
Satyanarayan Goel
We have been giving the data from the last one year. Grid India is doing the simulation so we do not know when the report will be submitted I think there in India when they are once the software is developed they will have to test the software also only after that they will do the simulation and then submit the report to…
Bharanidhar Vijayakumar
Yes. Sure. Okay, sir. All the best and thank you.
Satyanarayan Goel
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Devesh Agarwal from IIFL Securities. Please go-ahead.
Devesh Agarwal
Good afternoon, sir and congratulations on good set of numbers. My first question. My first question is basically if we see the volume growth in the quarter and I’m talking about sequential growth, we see that the dam segment has seen a 17% growth on a Q-o-Q basis, while RTM has seen a 13% decline. Now is there any particular reason why we have seen a decline in the RTM because that has been structurally growing quarter-after-quarter and this quarter we are seeing this anomaly.
Rohit Bajaj
Yeah. See what happens is in case of RTM, energy mix also plays very important role. So when we compare — when we are comparing Q3 vis-a-vis Q2, Q2 is the time when we have lots of wind generation in the country, lots of hydrogeneration in the country and overall renewal proportion is very-high. More the renewable proportion, more is the intermittency. So these months, normally you will find Q2 particularly starting from May going up to September, October, these are the times when generally there is a historical data also available where you can see that real-time market numbers are much, much better than during these months. They are very-high. And particularly in Q3 quarter when the overall renewable proportion is so low, we see there is some drop-in the renewable side on the RTM side. But if we look at collectively both RTM as well as market, then you will see that collective segment overall has grown.
Devesh Agarwal
Right, sir. Right. And secondly, sir, if we talk about the DAM segment per se, because you have seen an overall decline in the clearing prices and I think these are at a 2.5 year low. Is there a way to quantify what would be the replacement demand that you have seen in this quarter?
Satyanarayan Goel
Replacement demand is difficult to quantify that. But we have seen active participation of distribution companies and what happens when the prices are low, distribution companies don’t get into contract and that demand comes to the market. So I think we have not quantified that and it’s also difficult to do that. If we compare what was the bilateral transactions last year and what is the bilateral transactions this year, what is the difference in that? Maybe something we can work-out from that way. But otherwise, what we find is definitely that purchase by distribution companies have increased. It is — has increased because of the demand growth and also because the prices were low.
Devesh Agarwal
Right, sir. And sir, one final one. All the new opportunities that you mentioned, be it your energy storage solution or from dispatch RE or even the virtual PPAs, have any of this started to contribute on the exchange volumes or is there any expectation as to how much can come through this different opportunities in FY ’26?
Satyanarayan Goel
Virtual PPAs, what we understand that there are two MNCs with whom they are virtual PPS. So maybe that capacity — what is the capacity, maybe you can respond to this question
Rohit Bajaj
Yeah. So as per our estimate, we are getting close to, 300, 400 megawatt already on our platform, which is actually coming from VPP, I think. There are certain VPPA which are there in-place and they have this generation during the solar arts and they are selling it. As we have done some more assessment internal where we are seeing that, let’s say, by end of this fiscal, we are expecting up to 2 gigawatt of total renewable cell potential, which will be there and which has potential to participate in our spot markets. And this would be not only VPP, it would be some merchant capacity also.
Devesh Agarwal
This 2 gigawatt is just the virtual VPs or it’s including your energy storage renewables.
Rohit Bajaj
I’m talking about total renewable capacity. This would include virtual PPA also and this will also be — there would also be certain merchant plant, certain disputed PPA plant everywhere where they are not supplying under long-term PPA, this would be the total thing that we are expecting by year-end.
Satyanarayan Goel
In addition to what we did this year.
Devesh Agarwal
Yeah. Understood. Thank you so much, sir and all the very best.
Satyanarayan Goel
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Shaleen Kumar from UBS. Please go-ahead.
Shaleen Kumar
Yeah, hi. Congrats on the good set of numbers, sir. I know you have kind of answered this question, but just again, I have to pick your thought process here. Sir, on the long-duration side, there is some update as well. So two-parts to it. One, should we consider that on the green side, if there is a kind of a green — we have received a positive signal from CRC, it’s an indication that things should move swiftly on the long-duration as well. And if that happens, what’s the — your best guessing for the guests or estimate that this could happen in what timeframe, both the things?
Rohit Bajaj
So there are — as you rightly said, there are two things, one is green real-time market, second is a long-duration contracts up to 11 months. Green real-time market as well has just explained, all the — the first hearing has happened, competition has been admitted, consultation process has started. So our expectation is, let’s say, next two to three months’ time, we should get some — something positive from the CRC, then we would be in a position to launch this. As far as longer duration contract is concerned, this hearing got completed about eight, nine months back. So we are awaiting this. If you ask me to guess, again, I would say three, four months, we should be able to launch that as well.
Shaleen Kumar
Got it. So most likely in three to four months, we will be able to launch this and this will roughly — if I understanding is that roughly open up almost 40 billion unit market for us?
Rohit Bajaj
Absolutely. So if you go by last year numbers, it is total potential that exists is about 40 billion units. And in a phased manner, exchanges should be able to capture that.
Shaleen Kumar
Right. Got it, sir. Got it. Sir, I also like to touch base on one more question — one more question over here, right, which everybody has been discussing about. But again, I want to go a little deeper on the coupling side, right? And like to have a little debate here. So coupling was a part of your — coupling was I think was came or introduced along with MBED, right? Now while we are talking about coupling, why we are not talking about MBED? That’s one front. Is there — is it coming up in any of your discussion? Second, again, logically, again, here I’m looking for your views, does coupling has any merit, right, in your view? And if in any of your discussions with the regulators, this kind of discussion is arising and what are you thinking about it?
Satyanarayan Goel
Yeah. So number-one and this was discussions happened on this right from 2018, it was under discussion for almost about four years. But under the ambit, say today we have — if you look at the scheduling mechanism, we have decentralized scheduling mechanism. Each of the state, they have their power purchase agreements, they have their allocations from the central genetic stations and they do scheduling of that and they have the renewable also, they do scheduling of all these renewables and thermal power plants. So it is their responsibility to manage the demand and supply within the state. Under, dueling is done at the centralized level. So states are reluctant in giving their rights of scheduling. This issue was discussed with many of the states and there was a lot of reluctance from the part of the states.
That is why what we understand is that Ambid has been dropped. It is not being considered now. As far as coupling is concerned, I mean, we have said very clearly that there are no merits in coupling. In the past, we had mentioned about it. We have also made our submissions to CRC on the staff paper that why coupling is not desired and why coupling should not happen because this will kill the institutional framework of this market, power exchanges, this will kill innovation, this will kill competition in the market. And that is why regulator has issued the staff paper for simulation of the data and they want to take a decision based on the simulation results that if there is actually a merit in the case, a benefit to the consumers, maybe they will consider this, otherwise they may not consider this.
Shaleen Kumar
But do you think they can be because I don’t understand it is not a market coupling, it’s exchange coupling, right? Earlier the thesis was a market coupling. There are no more — there are no markets to couple here. So the whole thesis is…
Satyanarayan Goel
Agree with you, it’s a misnomer, but whatever it is, whatever it is, so regulator will probably take a view based on the simulation results.
Shaleen Kumar
Understood. But simulation, again, going back to the same point, with given your market-share or at least in the key product of almost 100%, how can the simulation business be any different?
Satyanarayan Goel
Again, I agree with you, if you look at the order of CRC data 6th of February in that order itself, CRC has mentioned that if one of the exchange has 99% market-share and as the common sense will say coupling 99% will not lead to any benefit. So it is out there. I mean, they have also mentioned that. But anyhow, since they have issued an order for doing the simulations for the different market segments, it is RTM, RTM, DAM, DAM and also RTM with sched. So let’s wait for the report to come.
Shaleen Kumar
Make sure. Who is the last bit, Roy sir up or sir, anyone can answer. Hypothetically, even if we say coupling happens, how easy to implement it? Because while we say coupling, but let’s think about the challenges. Any thoughts on that?
Satyanarayan Goel
There are many challenges as far as DAM dam coupling is concerned, then even if it is done by the system operator, they need a software, present software which they are developing for the simulation is basically just for the simulation of big data. But if you have to run the market, then you have — you need a market software and that kind of a software will have to be developed, the front-end of this, the back-office of that, all those things will have to be done. So that will need a lot of time and thereafter, you will have to also work-out the process of physical settlement of power between the exchanges and the financial settlement between the exchanges and also have to ensure that how exchanges that — the financial settlement between the exchange is insured because each of the exchange will have to ensure payment to their sellers. So I think all these things will have to be worked out so it will definitely take a good amount of time.
And in the case of our TMN sched that is — that is the option which is decided by the regulator. Then in that case, the time required will be much, much, much, much more because the algorithm is entirely different, RTM, the algorithm is different. I think we will have to first define the logic for that. That itself is a bit tough and thereafter developing a software for that and again the physics — because there the number of participants are going to be large because all these generating companies under the PPA, they will be also participants and also their distribution companies. So I think the process involved in physical and financial settlement is quite complicated there. So I think time required will be much larger there. It could be even two to three years.
Shaleen Kumar
Got it. So basically, in nutshell, we are saying there is a lot of investment manpower technology, etcetera is required to do this and so this can. This should only happen when there is a very, very strong merit for this.
Satyanarayan Goel
Also will take all these points into considerations while taking a decision.
Shaleen Kumar
Got it, sir. Thank you so much, sir. I believe we hope you know continue. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Karan P. Gupta from CAVI Capital. Please go-ahead.
Karan Premchand Gupta
Yeah, thank you for the opportunity. Just a quick question, sir. Can you just talk about the difference between volume growth and revenue growth in the last quarter. I noticed volume growth is about 16% and revenue growth was about 2.5% lower than that. So if you could just talk about that briefly, provide that difference?
Satyanarayan Goel
Yeah. In some of the products, we are also giving incentive to our partners. So it is the difference is because of that.
Karan Premchand Gupta
Is this incentive something that has been — that started recently because I haven’t noticed a similar difference in past quarters. So — and how do you see this going ahead? Is this because of competition that’s happening in the market or to grow the market as a whole? If you could just talk about that, please?
Satyanarayan Goel
Yeah, yeah. In the term market and market segments because of the comparison between the exchanges, if we are giving incentives, we have to also match that. Otherwise, we will lose market-share.
Karan Premchand Gupta
Okay, that’s all I have. Thank you.
Satyanarayan Goel
Yeah. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from Manthan D. Patel from Patel Investments. Please go-ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Hello.
Satyanarayan Goel
Yeah, hello.
Unidentified Participant
Am I audible?
Satyanarayan Goel
Yes.
Unidentified Participant
So there are two questions. First thing I want to know, is there any learning curve involved with — I mean while basically running front-end operations on your platform?
Satyanarayan Goel
Hello. I’m not able to hear you clearly.
Operator
Manthan, sir, may we request to use the handset mode if you are using the speaker mode please?
Unidentified Participant
No, I’m using — hello.
Satyanarayan Goel
Hello, yes.
Unidentified Participant
Are you able to hear me?
Satyanarayan Goel
Please go-ahead. Let me try.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah. So I want to know is there any learning curve involved while using your platform like if I mean if or any new participants want to create NLP…
Satyanarayan Goel
I’m not able to hear you clearly.
Unidentified Participant
Hello. Yeah, can you hear me now?
Operator
So your voice is still sounding muffled.
Unidentified Participant
Hello.
Satyanarayan Goel
Better now.
Unidentified Participant
Yes, okay. So I want to know is there any learning while I’ve been initiating trading on your platform.
Satyanarayan Goel
Your question is not clear to me.
Unidentified Participant
Like suppose any new participant wants to trade energy on IEX, then is there any is I mean…
Satyanarayan Goel
Okay. I got it. I mean, whenever any new participants he becomes a member or client, do the hand-holding and our market office and team persons explains him how we can do the submit updates and what kind of data is available for his decision-making. And also there is an IEX academy where you can get all kind of details about the electricity market, power market and you can understand the different rules, regulations under which the power market is operating.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. And sir, relating to first question, like I mean other exchange will have other kind of system is my understanding correct? Like both systems won’t be saved so if a particular user is comfortable with high ex I mean is there any incent you to and learn the new platform?
Satyanarayan Goel
Oh, we are not able to hear you properly.
Unidentified Participant
Hello, yeah, can you hear now?
Satyanarayan Goel
Your voice is loud, but there is lot of…
Operator
Your line is not clear, sir.
Satyanarayan Goel
Line is not clear. Please send me the email, send the email to Aparna Garg. We will respond to your question.
Unidentified Participant
Sir, can you hear now?
Satyanarayan Goel
I’m able to hear you from the beginning, but there is lot of disturbance in the line.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. So actually, basically I want to know if some user is comfortable with trading system, then is there any incentive to move towards other system? I think the other system will have different kind of operating system. We will have to learn the new system.
Satyanarayan Goel
Gentlemen, can I request you to send mail, please? You’re wasting everybody’s time.
Unidentified Participant
Sure, I’ll do that.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Gopinatha from PNR Investments. Please go-ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Sir, my question is already answered. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ankit Kanodia from Smart Sync Services. Please go-ahead.
Ankit Kanodia
Thank you for taking my question and congratulations on good set of numbers. Just one key clarification on the market coupling thing, which you answered to a couple of participants. That shadow coupling is already done and we are waiting for the report or it has not yet done yet. The government has not yet completed the shadow coupling.
Satyanarayan Goel
We do not know whether the setup coupling simulation has been done or not because we are giving the data and we are not getting any feedback about the simulation details.
Ankit Kanodia
Okay. That was very helpful, sir. And sir, second point is — second question is related to the — the transaction income which we make that is the bulk of our basically revenue in. So how has been the transaction price mechanism in the past and how do we see that going-forward? And how much of government’s influence is there in that?
Satyanarayan Goel
Government influence on transaction fees? Yes from 2008 to 2021, there was no regulation for regulation of transaction fees. Exchanges were free-to charge a transaction fees which they feel right. And we have been charging these two pass-on other side from 2011 onwards and we have kept it constant thereafter. Then in 2021, the new regulations came, there are also CRC specified a transaction case of two press on either site and subsequently, product-wise, we have filed petition and those also have been approved with.
Ankit Kanodia
So is it fair to assume that you don’t foresee any risk-on this angle going-forward?
Satyanarayan Goel
Yeah. I mean these kind of approvals don’t happen every day. So once DRC has approved that, I’m — I feel that this approval should hold good for at least five years.
Ankit Kanodia
Okay. Thank you so much, sir. That was only commentary. Thank you and all the best.
Satyanarayan Goel
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as our last question for today. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Rohit Bajaj
Thank you. Thank you, friends. I would like to thank each one of you for being part of today’s call. We have had good first nine months for this fiscal on the business front. We have witnessed several efforts announced by the government and regulators to further develop our markets in the country. We remain committed to contribute to the development of a sustainable and efficient energy future for India. Have a wonderful evening. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. On behalf of Indian Energy Exchange, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.