Hindalco Industries Ltd (HINDALCO) Q2 FY23 Earnings Concall Transcript

Hindalco Industries Ltd (NSE: HINDALCO) Q2 FY23 Earnings Concall dated Nov. 11, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Subir Sen — Head of Investor Relations

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Steve Fisher — President & Chief Executive Officer

Praveen Kumar Maheshwari — Whole-Time Director & Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Indrajit Agarwal — CLSA — Analyst

Pinakin Parekh — JPMorgan — Analyst

Amit Dixit — ICICI Securities — Analyst

Satyadeep Jain — AMBIT Capital — Analyst

Sumangal Nevatia — Kotak Securities — Analyst

Prashanth Kumar Kota — Emkay Global Financial Services — Analyst

Vishal Chandak — Motilal Oswal — Analyst

Arijit Dutta — Kotak Mutual Fund — Analyst

Pallav Agarwal — Antique Stockbroking Limited — Analyst

Bhavin Chheda — Enam Holdings — Analyst

Ashish Kejriwal — Nuvama Wealth Management — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Hindalco Industries FY ’23 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.

I now hand the conference over to Mr. Subir Sen, Head of Investor Relations of Hindalco. Thank you, and over to you, sir.

Subir Sen — Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, and a very good afternoon, morning, everyone.

On behalf of Hindalco Industries, I welcome you all to this earnings call for the second quarter of the financial year 2023. In this call, we’ll refer to the Q2 FY ’23 investor presentation available on our company’s website.

Some of the information on this call may be forward-looking in nature and is covered by the safe harbor language on Slide number 2 of the said presentation. In this presentation, we have covered the key highlights of all our businesses for the second quarter of the financial year 2023, and a segment-wide comparative analysis of India aluminum, copper business and our overseas subsidiary, Novelis. We have presented our aluminum upstream and downstream financial operational performances separately to truly reflect the individual business segment performances in Q2 FY ’23. The corresponding segment information of the prior periods have also been restated accordingly for a comparative analysis.

We have with us in this call from Hindalco’s management, Mr. Satish Pai, Managing Director; Mr. Praveen Maheshwari, Chief Financial Officer. From Novelis’ management, we have Mr. Steve Fisher, President and CEO; Mr. Dev Ahuja; Chief Financial Officer. Following this presentation, this call will be open to any questions you may have. Post this call, an audio replay of this call will be available on our company’s website.

Now let me turn this call to Mr. Pai to take you through our company’s performance in this quarter.

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Yes. Thank you, Subir. Good afternoon, morning, everyone, and thanks for joining the call.

Let me start with good news that for the third consecutive year, Hindalco along with Novelis, has been recognized as the world’s most sustainable aluminum company in the 2022 S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment at the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices. Hindalco secured an ESG score of 83 out of 100, which is 10 points more than last year. The company achieved the highest score out of 26 companies assessed in the aluminum industry and has a full score in materiality, environmental reporting, water-related risk, social reporting, human capital development and customer relationship management. This reflects Hindalco’s deep-rooted commitment to maximizing sustainability across the value chain.

On Slide 6 and 7 of the investor presentation, you can see our progress across metrics of ESG. We are aligned to our commitments of 2050. This is reflected in our increasing share of recycling and reusing of waste in terms of bauxite residue and fly ash. In the first half year, we have achieved recycling of 82% of bauxite residue and 111% of fly ash. In addition to this, we are now single-use plastic-free at 8 of our sites being certified and shall soon attain this certification for all our plants in India. We are committed to 0 liquid discharge at all our sites and 20% reduction in specific water consumption by 2025 from the base year of FY ’19. We are on our way of achieving net water positivity by 2050. For this, we are also taking steps like working with global start-ups to identify effluent recycling, monitoring technologies, implementing water audits for assessing rainwater harvesting and recycling capabilities at our plant locations.

On the green cover and biodiversity front, we have cultivated Miyawaki patches across our mine sites. We have conducted studies by CII on biodiversity index and carbon sequestration at all our locations. And currently, we are using biomass as a coal substitute in Hirakud, up to 5% and also, we have started to use biomass in Aditya and Utkal. On the renewables side, we are in line with our target of reaching 300 megawatts by 2025. We have implemented 100 megawatts of renewable in the last financial year. Of the remaining 200 megawatts, 9 megawatts is already commissioned during the first half of ’23 and another 109 megawatts of renewable projects are under execution and finalization. Our large-scale renewable hybrid project of 100 to 300 megawatts at our Aditya plant with the connectivity to the 400 KV grid is expected to be completed by December of ’23. Aluminum specific GHG emissions at the end of the first half of FY ’23 was recorded at 19.18 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of aluminum produced, clocking a improvement of 2.4% compared to the last financial year.

On safety, we are committed to 0 harm at all our plant locations. The LTIFR in India was recorded at 0.33 at the end of first half of this year. One fatality of a contract worker was recorded at our Indian operations in the first half. Let me now give you a glimpse of quarterly consolidated performance for the quarter. This quarter performance on a consolidated basis was impacted by rising input costs, inflationary pressures and unfavorable macros, which was partially offset by better operational performance of copper and the downstream businesses. Our quarterly consolidated EBITDA declined by 29% year-on-year to INR5,743 crores, whereas the consolidated PAT for continuing operations declined by 36% year-on-year to INR2,205 crores.

Hindalco, at the consolidated level, maintains its strong balance sheet with a net debt-to-EBITDA well below 2 times at 1.47x at the end of September 2022. Consolidated net debt stands at INR42,063 crores. At the India operations, net debt stands at INR4,812 crores. And for Novelis, it is at INR37,251 crores. All our strategic capex in India as well as in Novelis are mapped with the cash flow generation in the businesses and are in line with our capital allocation policy disclosed at the beginning of this financial year. On our India hedge position for aluminum business, we are hedged at 30% for the second half of FY ’23 at $2,500 a tonne and at 5% at $3,000 a tonne for FY ’24.

Coming to our business-wise performance for this quarter. Novelis delivered yet another strong quarter with 2% higher shipments, year-on-year EBITDA per tonne well above $500 at $514 per tonne in this quarter and a net income from continuing operations at $184 million, which was 23% lower than the corresponding period last year. Novelis broke ground on the new US recycling and rolling plant in Bay Minette, Alabama. On Hindalco’s India aluminum business performance, upstream aluminum performance this quarter was impacted by rising input costs and unfavorable macros. EBITDA was 57% lower at INR1,347 crores. EBITDA per tonne was at $495 a tonne, whereas EBITDA margins were at 16.4, though they continue to be one of the best in the industry in the current challenging business environment. The overall shipments of the primary aluminum were 341 Kt of this third-party shipments were 245 Kt and 96 Kt was transferred to the downstream business in quarter 2. On the project side, our Utkal Alumina 350 Kt expansion is expected to be commissioned by next year.

The downstream aluminum business delivered an all-time high EBITDA of INR200 crores this year, up 163% year-on-year on account of better pricing. EBITDA per tonne was also up 120% year-on-year at $264 a tonne with a sales volume of 95 Kt this quarter, which was up 11% year-on-year. During this quarter, Hindalco developed India’s first aluminum freight rake for the Indian Railways. This was a big step by Hindalco towards decarbonizing in rail transportation. All our expansion projects in aluminum downstream are progressing well and as per schedule. On the copper business, our copper business continued to deliver improved performance with an all-time high metal and copper rod sales in this quarter. Copper EBITDA was higher by 55% year-on-year at INR544 crores on the back of higher volume and improved byproduct realization. Now let me give you some glimpse of the current broader economic environment. The global economy continues to face steep challenges shaped by 3 powerful forces: the Russia-Ukraine war, persistent and broadening inflationary pressures and the slowdown in China.

As per IMF, global growth is expected to slow down from 6% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023, led by 3 large economies, namely the US, Euro area and China. The 2023 slowdown is expected to be broad-based with almost 1/3 of the global economy expected to contract. Inflationary pressures have been persistent and have permeated well beyond fuel and food. This has had a twofold impact in terms of the tightening global monetary condition and strengthening of the US dollar against most currencies. IMF forecasts the global inflation to rise from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8% in 2022 before decelerating to 6.5% in 2023. Despite global headwinds, the Indian economy remains resilient. High-frequency data provide a mixed picture about growth drivers. While slowdown in external demand and tightening monetary conditions are weighing down on export growth and capital flows, the government’s trust on capex, strong service sector activity and private consumption are expected to drive India’s growth momentum.

The RBI projects India’s FY ’23 GDP growth to be 7% year-on-year with broadly balanced risk. High domestic inflation, above the RBI’s target of 4% — 4% to 2% and tighter global monetary conditions have prompted the RBI to hike policy rates by cumulative 190 bps in the last 6 months. RBI projects FY ’23 inflation at 6.7%. On the aluminum industry outlook. In the first 9 months of 2022, the global aluminum production grew 2%, while the global consumption grew 1% year-on-year, resulting in a marginal deficit of 0.3 million tonnes. In those first 3 months, the Chinese productions increased in certain provinces, but there was a decline in production in Sichuan due to power supply issues. Hence, the overall production in China grew by only 3%.

Chinese consumption was flattish due to the Zero-COVID policy. This has resulted in a deficit of 0.1 million tonnes in the first 9 months of calendar year ’22 in China. In the world ex China, production grew in the Middle East, whereas production declined sharply in the European regions due to rising energy prices. Therefore, the overall production was flattish, while consumption improved by 2% and due to strong demand in the packaging segment, and hence, the overall market balance reported a deficit of 0.3 million tonnes on a year-to-date basis in calendar year ’22.

Now if we just look at calendar year Q3, the global aluminum production increased by 4%, while consumption improved by 1%, resulting in a marginal surplus of 0.1 million tonnes. Chinese production grew sharply by 6%, whereas consumption, supported by strong new energy vehicle sales, improved by 2%. This led to a deficit of 0.2 million tonnes in Q3 calendar year ’22. In the rest of the world, the overall aluminum production and consumption was flattish, resulting in a surplus of 0.3 million tonnes in Q3 calendar year ’22. The global aluminum prices on an average declined to $2,354 a tonne this quarter and continued to fall to $2,250 per tonne on a QTD basis in calendar year ’22. This fall is led by worries of a weaker demand in China and Europe and recession concerns combined with a hawkish monetary policy.

However, the domestic demand of aluminum in Q2 was 25% higher on a year-on-year basis and is expected to reach 1.178 million tonnes due to the base effect. On a sequential basis, the domestic consumption is likely to be strong in the electrical and automotive sectors. There may also be some headwinds in the building and construction sector on account of rising interest rates. On an overall basis, the domestic demand of aluminum is expected to remain strong, supported by resilient economic growth and stable macros. The global FRP demand is expected to grow at about 3% in calendar year ’22 compared to 11% in calendar year ’21. The market demand for resilient beverage can sheets is expected to remain stable. Automotive demand segment is led by elevated levels of pent-up demand, supported by growing consumer demand for vehicles that use a higher share of aluminum.

The demand in specialty segment is expected to remain strong with high order backlog in the B&C segment, while some softness is seen on account of seasonality and the macroeconomic environment. The aerospace segment is expected to remain strong with the resumption of air travel and the long order backlog with OEMs. Domestic FRP demand is expected to grow by 37% year-on-year in Q2 FY ’23. This growth is supported by strong demand in the packaging and B&C segment. Talking about the global copper industry, global production of copper grew by 2%, whereas consumption grew by 6% in the first 9 months of this calendar year. Chinese production grew by 3% year-on-year, whereas consumption grew by 8% year-on-year. In the rest of the world, production of copper increased by 1.9%, whereas consumption grew by 3.6%.

On a quarterly basis, global production of copper has increased by 3.1% year-on-year, whereas consumption has grown by 7.7% year-on-year. Chinese production of copper increased by 6.5%, whereas consumption growth was at 8.4% on a year-on-year basis. In the rest of the world, production increased by 0.7% year-on-year, whereas consumption grew by 6.9% year-on-year. During Q2 of FY ’23, the spot TC/RCs showed improvement compared to the previous quarter on account of lower spot purchases by smelters globally and several Chinese smelters taking the maintenance shutdown, along with the expectations of new mines coming on stream. The spot TC/RCs improved to $0.215 per pound levels currently from the $0.18 per pound during June to July ’22. On account of new mines coming in and improved availability of clean material, the spot TC/RC is expected to remain elevated during Q3 and Q4 of financial year ’23.

On the domestic side, the overall market demand grew by 18% year-on-year at 188 Kt in Q2 of FY ’23, whereas imports grew by 6% year-on-year at 45%. Further details of our operational and financial performance in each of our business segments this quarter compared with the corresponding period of last year and prior quarters are covered in the slides and annexures to this presentation.

So I will now conclude today’s presentation with our strategic priorities and way ahead. Our topmost priority is maintaining a robust capital structure with a strong balance sheet to fuel the next phase of our growth. Our value-enhancing growth is directed towards expanding capacities in various business segments and diversifying our portfolio to provide not only products, but solutions, expanding downstream businesses in both aluminum and copper organically. Our focused approach on the 2050 ESG commitments to become industry leader in sustainability. Our portfolio enrichment strategy of advancing from a manufacturing company to a manufacturing solutions provider in the long run in line with our downstream strategy. I also want to reiterate that we are committed to all our ongoing projects, and we will moderate and take new strategic capex both in India and Novelis to be in line with our generated free cash flows.

Thank you very much for your attention, and we will now open the forum for any questions. Back to you, operator.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from the line of Indrajit from CLSA.

Indrajit Agarwal — CLSA — Analyst

I have 2 questions from my side. First, sir, what is your outlook for aluminum prices going into next year? And with that in mind, does it make sense to increase our hedging for FY ’24 right now?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

So I think the way to look at how the LME can perform is to say that on one hand, the fundamentals of supply and demand of aluminum is extremely tight. So there is no real surplus anywhere. European smelters are down. So — and inventories are at 15-year lows. So it’s less than 10 million tonnes of aluminum in inventory. So supply-demand is tight. So I guess the — what happens to the LME now is dependent on these macroeconomic factors that everybody is watching. And I think that the most important ones are what happens in China. Will the Zero-COVID policy be eased and will the economy start to grow because that’s 50% of aluminum production and consumption. The second thing is the state of the US economy. And third is, in some ways, what happens in Europe with the war, will it drag Europe down deeper or not?

So as you can see from what happened yesterday, the slightest positive news that comes that US inflation is sort of not as high, immediately, the dollar dropped and all commodity prices today have jumped up. So I think it’s a fairly volatile situation and the market is waiting for the broader economic volatility to go out and see is — are the economies going to be okay or is there going to be a recession? And I think the LME is going to depend on that. Now one thing is very clear is that it does look like the 2,200, 2,300 is sort of a baseline based on the high cost of production that has emerged. And it’s from that level, it can go up or down. We intend not to hedge at current levels and wait because we think that there could be upside next year.

Indrajit Agarwal — CLSA — Analyst

Sure. And on copper, are we at a stage of determining the TC/RC negotiations for next year or is it too early —

Satish Pai — Managing Director

No, that’s going on in China. Normally, in November, it happens. So it should be declared any time. But we are fairly confident you’re going to see a number somewhere between $0.18 and $0.20 per pound, much higher than the sort of 16, 17 we saw this year.

Indrajit Agarwal — CLSA — Analyst

Sure. And lastly, any color on aluminum cost of production, what was the increase this quarter and any guidance for next quarter?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Yes, yes. So look, the cost of production in Q2 was — it went up by 20%. And I think now we have sort of peaked and it will start to go down as coal prices and all are going down. Now I think in Q3, the decrease will probably be in the order of 2% to 5%. I’m sort of giving the range because I really need to see how much the coal prices go down by. Now just anticipating a question, this cost of production is what we see on an ongoing basis. But on a realized basis, I just wanted to come up front and say that Q2 saw the benefit of about INR300 crores of low-cost inventory starting position. Whereas in Q3, we will not see that benefit because you’re now going to have higher cost inventory of Q2, which will get sold during the first months of Q3.

Operator

Next question is from the line of Pinakin from JPMorgan.

Pinakin Parekh — JPMorgan — Analyst

A couple of days back, when Novelis held their call, they severely guided down the second half EBITDA per tonne guidance after the increase in guidance seen in August. What — the 1 question that we have consistently got from investors is that what are the key variables that would need to change or remain steady in terms of the macro environment for FY ’24 EBITDA per tonne to go back to $525 per tonne? What is it, aluminum price? Is it scrap profitability? Is it demand? Just trying to get a sense of what would lead to a normalized margin. And what are the risks to that margin recovery in FY ’24?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Steve?

Steve Fisher — President & Chief Executive Officer

Sure, Pinakin. So as we talked about a few days ago, the overall top line market stays very strong across our end markets that we participate in, whether it be beverage packaging, whether it be automotive, aero, many of the specialty markets. The 1 specialty market that we are looking at closely, driven by interest rates, is our B&C, both in Europe and North America and a potential for a pullback there. But we think that could be offset against stronger demand actually even coming in, in some of the other markets. So we stay committed to the $525-plus EBITDA per tonne as our sustainable long guidance for Novelis.

What’s bringing us down in the near term is lower metal benefits, the rising inflation that even Satish spoke about and then the higher cost of inventory that’s in our books today that will be coming out in the third quarter. We do believe through the third quarter that — or I’m sorry, in our fourth quarter, we’ll be able to start to pass through contractually a lot of the inflationary costs. We think there’ll be some easing of inflationary costs as we get into the fourth quarter. We also see that metal spreads will be improving, we believe, in the fourth quarter. Not necessarily due to an increase in overall aluminum prices, but because of some of the dynamics that we experienced primarily in our South America business in the second and third quarter here, some squeezing of spreads. As that returns and the top line shipments stay, we believe that $525 is achievable again as we get through the next couple of quarters.

Pinakin Parekh — JPMorgan — Analyst

Sure. That’s very helpful. So just to clarify that in the event if the US economic situation or demand deteriorates materially leading to lower LME aluminum prices, would lower LME aluminum prices combined with a weaker demand in the US be the single most — single largest downside risk to the $525 number in F ’24?

Steve Fisher — President & Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So I won’t comment on aluminum price. I think Satish said that they believe ’22, ’23 is a floor of aluminum prices. Certainly, further deterioration of aluminum prices will put pressure on the recycling business. There’s no doubt about that, if it was to occur, but I think Satish has a better view there. As it relates to overall recessionary environment in the US, listen, 60% of our business is beverage packaging and beverage packaging has proven itself over and over to be a recession resilient end market. And you go from on-premise to take home consumption of beverage packaging. So that is going to help us very much in our portfolio.

There’s still tremendous pent-up demand, strong balance sheets of consumers on the auto business. And so the one business that we look at is the B&C business that certainly, the order book with rising interest rates is starting to dampen a little bit. But that’s not — we think that can be offset again by some of the other businesses. So it’s hard to predict exactly what a recession could look like. But ultimately, we think we’ve got a very good product mix to ease any headwinds we might see in that condition.

Pinakin Parekh — JPMorgan — Analyst

That’s very detailed color. My second question for Mr. Pai is that given this backdrop of very high volatility and increasing uncertainty, especially on Western demand, there has been a capex push out this year at Novelis level. But at a consolidated level, does the capex pushout mean that there is a risk of capex getting bunched up over the next 2 years, at a time when the macro could be even weaker or there are projects which could get pushed out in the spending plan accordingly adjust to the level of cash flows, not this year, just likely over the next 18 to 24 months?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

So Pinakin, that’s why I’m going to read out my prepared last statement again. So we are committed to all our ongoing projects, ongoing projects is like Bay Minette, FRP expansion in India, Silvassa. These are going to go on as planned. And then my next part was we will moderate and pace any more new projects that we start, both in India and Novelis to be in line with our generated cash flow. So I think the point we are trying to say is that the projects that are already off the ground, we are committed to them and will continue. Any new projects we start, we are going to take a look at the environment and make sure — see, our point is not the current economic environment, we just want to make sure that we are within our cash flows and what we are committed to on the net debt-to-EBITDA. And that is driving us because we are fairly confident that 1 year, 1.5 years down the road, the demand for aluminum products is going to be quite strong. So we intend, if we can, within our cash flows, continue to do as many projects as we can. Otherwise, we’ll take them out if we are not able to finance them. But we will not add debt to do projects, Pinakin, again, repeat.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Amit Dixit from ICICI Securities.

Amit Dixit — ICICI Securities — Analyst

I have 2 questions. The first one is on copper business. We have seen copper business consistently hitting INR5 billion plus EBITDA over a few quarters. So do you believe that this kind of range is sustainable, particularly in light of TC/RCs going up and, of course, the by-product prices, asset prices also being high?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

So I think that I’m wary to just go and give a higher projection straightaway. But I would say that the 450 to 500 is sustainable. And it’s not just the TC/RCs, what’s benefiting the copper business is higher sulfuric acid prices as well, which in Q3 will come off a bit. But I think that I would be comfortable to say 450 to 500 is sustainable.

Amit Dixit — ICICI Securities — Analyst

Okay. Got it. The second question is more of a bookkeeping question. If you can let us know the third-party alumina sales and the margins?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

I can tell you the sales, not the margin. The sales was about 250 Kt in Q2 because some of Q1 spilled over to quarter 2. And in Q3, we will be selling about 150 Kt more. Though the benchmark alumina has — in Q2, it was about $340. In November, it’s running at about $320 right now.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Satyadeep Jain from AMBIT Capital.

Satyadeep Jain — AMBIT Capital — Analyst

My question pertains to the Indian downstream business. Mr. Pai, in interviews, you’ve indicated increased adoption likely of aluminum in the Indian state and logistics sector. So a couple of questions on that. The first one, we’ve heard — we’ve seen the first aluminum rake in India, we’ve also seen this year a full aluminum metro body in Maha Metro. On this side, I would have believed in the cost-conscious customer, the government, but now it is looking at full life cycle cost and CO2 savings. Just wanted to understand the total market, if I understand the steel requirement in railways is about maybe 2 million, 3 million tonnes, but a lot of that is rails. What could be the potential market size for you in this particular segment? That’s the first question.

Satish Pai — Managing Director

So look, the total market size is going to gradually evolve. I mean — so the longer-term demand could be quite large. But we are — if you just take the rake, the battery vehicles, the 2-wheelers where aluminum is used, the truck bodies, we think that this can in the sort of next 3 years to 5 years, add at least another 100 Kt of extrusion and rolled product demand in India. The longer term can be even much larger than that.

Satyadeep Jain — AMBIT Capital — Analyst

Okay. So in the next 3 to 5 years, you’re looking at 100 Kt. But on that particular one, so we’ve seen Indian railways and metro actually look more favorably at aluminum, but you’ve also introduced aluminum trailers, aluminum bulkers. Outside, we’ve not really heard any, let’s say, I’m using an example, maybe Ashok Leyland talk about using aluminum trailer because it has lower CO2, I mean life cycle. We’ve not seen cement companies outside of Ultratech yet talk about bulkers there. Are you sensing maybe certain reservations about costs? Or you maybe think that maybe customers are open to the idea, maybe just it’s a matter of time?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

I think they are not talking about publicly because there is serious negotiations going on with all those parties you talked about. So if they come out and say this is very great from us, then they are trying to squeeze us on the pricing right now. There’s a lot of discussions going on in bulkers, trailers, 2-wheelers, battery enclosures for electric cars. So a lot of and direct customer discussions going on for us. Our extrusion project in Silvassa is becoming very important because the first press will come online this December. And hopefully, by middle of next year, all 3 presses are coming because the demand for all this — there’s quite a lot of extrusions in the transportation sector.

Satyadeep Jain — AMBIT Capital — Analyst

Just for understanding sake, the freight, the Indian freight rake is a plate. But when you look at the Hirakud facility, is there a capacity that you’ve outlined for plates and some for rolled sheet and coils or is it fungible? I just wanted to understand how — that those segments work?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

So look, it’s a bit technical. So I’ll give you just 1 example. On the rake side, it uses harder 5000 series alloy. And that can only be made in the Hirakud facility. That’s why the Hirakud hot mill is the strongest and the largest in the Hindalco system. By the way, it’s hardly utilized today. That’s why we are putting up more cold mills in Aditya and Hirakud to take advantage of it. So the 5,000 series will have to come from Hirakud.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Sumangal Nevatia from Kotak Securities.

Sumangal Nevatia — Kotak Securities — Analyst

A couple of questions. First, on the coal mix, if you could explain what was our coal mix and when we say the deflation of 2% to 5% what is the coal mix going forward that we are factoring?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Yes, good question, Sumangal. So in Q2, roughly, we had about 47% to 48% of linkage coal and nearly 30% of e-auction. And the remaining part was own mines, private parties, import. So when we say the prices are coming down, we are expecting — so we were getting 75% linkage, as you know, from the government. We are expecting this to start this percentage to go up that they will go back to 90% is what we are expecting. And the second thing is that the remaining 30% that is a large amount we were buying in e-auctions, the premiums have drastically started to come down compared to the very high numbers we saw in Q2. So that’s built into our assumption of the 2% to 5% reduction in cost.

Sumangal Nevatia — Kotak Securities — Analyst

Okay. And the captive mines, we are running full, right? I mean there’s no change in the near future in terms of volumes and contribution from there.

Satish Pai — Managing Director

No. But we see in Q2, only Gare Palma IV/4 was running. Kathautia, we had run out of land. So now we have procured more land. And in Q3, Kathautia will also start producing. So that will help Mahan.

Sumangal Nevatia — Kotak Securities — Analyst

Okay. And sir, I mean, this is a gradual change in terms of increasing linkage. So once we move to our old ratio of linkage and the e-auction, I mean what — I mean any broad, is it a double-digit kind of a deflation should be built in for coming quarters?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Yes, I mean, see, compared to even the previous quarter or the same quarter last year, our energy prices compared to the same quarter last year are more than double, just the order of magnitude. So there is a huge space for our pricing cost of production to come down if coal prices come back to the normal linkage levels that we had.

Sumangal Nevatia — Kotak Securities — Analyst

Got it. Understood. And sir, with respect to other RM in terms of carbon cost taken, what sort of movement are we seeing and this 2% to 5% deflation is actually in all the raw material put together?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Yes, yes. We are now — I think this 2% to 5%, we — believe me, we’ve done enough scenario analysis to do that. But you see furnace oil has started to come down. Pitch is still high. AlF3 has come down. So it’s — and the others, it’s a bit of a mixed bag. There’s only, let’s say, pitch has gone up dramatically, the rest are flattish. Furnace oil is actually down. So the rest of the ones are not adding too much to further inflation. Our biggest headache now is the price of coal.

Sumangal Nevatia — Kotak Securities — Analyst

Understood. And just for a calculation point of view, I mean what absolute level of — this, I believe, is at hot metal level. So what is the active level of hot metal level to then build these inflation and deflation in future? Is it like around $2,000-odd?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Sorry, I didn’t get the question. You mean the cost?

Sumangal Nevatia — Kotak Securities — Analyst

Yes, yes, yes, the cost.

Satish Pai — Managing Director

No. So the absolute cost, we don’t give out that number. I think you can back calculate it.

Sumangal Nevatia — Kotak Securities — Analyst

Okay. That’s fine. And sir, just 1 last question on the capex. I mean you said new projects, we will evaluate as per the cash flows. So these are projects beyond what we had already basically articulated in our Investor Day or within that, only the under appraisal projects can be slowed down as per the cash flows?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

The latter, the under appraisal ones.

Sumangal Nevatia — Kotak Securities — Analyst

Got it. Got it. So what is guiding, sir. Is it the absolute level debt, which we are — which we have an eye on or the scenario, I mean, what exactly is the guiding point for these decisions?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

So look, in India, because I’ll split between — in Novelis, we have committed to a 2.5x net debt-to-EBITDA. So for Novelis cash flow, capex, that is the guiding point for us. In India, I just want to stay within the cash we have generated so that we don’t have to take any more debt to do the projects. Because we have — India is an upstream business, a bit more volatile, so the absolute debt levels are as important. So we have now got the gross debt in India down to about INR14,000 crores. And we have a healthy treasury position of INR10,000 crores at the end of the quarter, of course, largely because of cash generated in the previous 6 quarters where we had a good LME. So we do not want to add any more debt, and we want to keep our capex projects within the cash flow we generate.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Prashanth Kumar Kota from Emkay Global Financial Services.

Prashanth Kumar Kota — Emkay Global Financial Services — Analyst

My first question is to Shri Satish Pai. Sir, at Hindalco, we have a very resilient and sturdy business model when we combine — look at this business combined that is India — India within India, a bit of countercyclical, then we have Novelis. The only cyclical component is the India Aluminum business and Alumina is again quite sturdy. So in this situation, should we — based on transient 1 or 2 quarters of dip in EBITDA or EBITDA margins, or EBITDA per tonne for aluminum, should we slowdown or should we moderate our pace of capex or should we just go all guns blazing and because other — we have a very resilient business model. We have a very good financial reputation with the lenders, solid growth. Even if you — for a quarter or 2 at the financial leverage ratios more here and there, isn’t it okay, sir? Why not — the more the merrier and the faster the better, the more sweeter the fruits we’ll be having, if we do the hard work —

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Thank you for your confidence in our business model and all. But I think that we have been very clearly articulating the capital allocation strategy. We have been articulating net debt-to-EBITDA targets. That’s why I again think that, it’s not — I repeat again, we are pacing the capex, we are not reducing anything, we are not canceling anything. So we just want to make sure that — because the current environment is very cloudy. So we just want to be a little bit prudent. And I think that saying that we will remain in India within our cash flows is okay. I think that it’s not guns blazing, but it’s still sticking to the strategy that we have.

Prashanth Kumar Kota — Emkay Global Financial Services — Analyst

Understood, sir. Understood. Sir, my second question is to Mr. Steve or Shri Dev. Sir, now given that at Novelis, yes, 1 quarter, maybe the EBITDA per tonne would dip 1, 1.5 quarters. Maybe it is dipping below the previously guided $525, but there’s a lot of uncertainty, volatility out there in the Europe and some parts of America. But now that auto is coming back and there is pent-up component of auto. The aerospace, the travel-related segment is coming up — coming back very well. And there are cost pass-throughs that are expected to be fully done by the end of Q4 or largely done. And the other tailwinds, let’s say, hopefully, the rate hiking cycle peaks before March versus June earlier expectations based on yesterday’s trend, et cetera. And all these things falling in place, is there a possible — and, let’s say, the Zero-COVID policy substantive changes are done in China, assuming that. Is there a possibility that in FY ’24 maybe from second quarter onwards, is there a possibility that the EBITDA per tonne guidance could be increased?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

I like your very optimistic outlook. But Steve, go ahead.

Steve Fisher — President & Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Yes, I think you’ve articulated well the headwinds that we’re seeing in the near quarters and how we will manage through those combination of easing a combination of pass-throughs, combination of spreads returning. And we are very confident of returning to $525 per tonne of sustainable EBITDA. But that’s the guidance that we’re giving long term as we ramp up our Bay Minette asset and other organic expansions and some of our newer contracts come in place. We have said there’s upside to the $525 with those contract prices.

Prashanth Kumar Kota — Emkay Global Financial Services — Analyst

Sure. Sure, Mr. Steve, understood. And Satish, sir, actually, I’m just placing the facts and looking at it from the iconic, I’m just not being optimistic for the sake of it, but based on the print and data.

Satish Pai — Managing Director

I hope you’re right with your calls on the macro, absolutely with you.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Vishal Chandak from Motilal Oswal.

Vishal Chandak — Motilal Oswal — Analyst

Sir, my first question is with respect to your Slide 37, where you have mentioned the EBITDA and sales reconciliation. Now we all generally understand there’s an intersegment profit element which gets adjusted when we do a consolidation. So for example, the upstream unit sales aluminum to the downstream, there is a profit embedded. On the reconciliation that intersegment probably gets eliminated. But in this quarter, there is an element of intersegment loss of about INR437 crores, so could you please guide us on how to read this particular line item?

Praveen Kumar Maheshwari — Whole-Time Director & Chief Financial Officer

No. So Praveen, here. I’ll just explain to you. When you have a couple of segments within a company and 1 segment transfers the material, its output to another segment, there is a certain profit element that sits in the inventory at the end of the period. As per the accounting standards, we are required to remove it. So typically, profit elimination will be a loss. But what happens is in the next quarter, it gets reversed so Q1, for example, in our case, whatever elimination was done, got reversed in Q2. So that becomes a profit for Q2. And similarly, Q2 end, we have some profit, which is sitting in the inventory, which is removed. So the number that you see here is a delta between the reversal and the elimination. So in this case, what it signifies is that the elimination in Q1 was higher by INR437 crores compared to the elimination done in Q2. That depends entirely on the value of the inventory and the profit sitting in that and the quantum of inventory. So INR437 crores is that kind of a net delta between Q1 and Q2 profit elimination. I hope this clarifies.

Vishal Chandak — Motilal Oswal — Analyst

Yes. Yes, in that case, it would be a fair assumption or a simplification to say that in a falling aluminum scenario, typically, you would see intersegment losses coming up.

Praveen Kumar Maheshwari — Whole-Time Director & Chief Financial Officer

So yes. So — but it depends —

Vishal Chandak — Motilal Oswal — Analyst

It means 1 segment is constant.

Praveen Kumar Maheshwari — Whole-Time Director & Chief Financial Officer

Yes, yes. So — but it depends on the delta between the opening position and the closing position. So because last quarter, you would have eliminated, which will be reversed in the beginning. If that is higher, for example, in this case, it is higher compared to the elimination that you do at the end of Q2 then you will see a profit. So for example, whatever elimination has taken place, let’s say, at the end of Q2, if at the end of Q3, the elimination is still lower, you might still see a profit coming up. So you are right. The higher the drop in a quarter, the higher the loss at the end of the period because of the elimination. And then, of course, the number will be positive or negative depending upon the delta.

Vishal Chandak — Motilal Oswal — Analyst

Correct. Correct. Sir, my second question was more with regards to disclosure in terms of the downstream aluminum business, the volumes are low, the EBITDA itself is not very significant, but we still want to highlight — so is somewhere down the line, there is an element of understanding that this business gets listed separately?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

I think that’s far, far, far too premature. At this stage, I think what we are trying to do is to build an integrated business model because we produce 1.3 million of primary aluminum. And if you see, we are at about 400 Kt of rolled products, extrusions, wire rod, et cetera. So we have stated that our strategy, if you see now just Silvassa and the thing, will add another 200 Kt. So really, we want to get to about 800, 900 Kt of rolled products. I think that all the other business models, listing and all that will come once we have executed all of this.

Vishal Chandak — Motilal Oswal — Analyst

Exactly. You rightly said once you achieve the skill that would be the second thing. I completely agree with that. Sir, my second question was with regards to your coal production. You’ve mentioned that by the next 2 years’ time frame, you would be largely self-sufficient probably by the end of FY ’24. So if you could just help us with the progress made on that front, especially on the captive coal mines that we recently won.

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Yes. I don’t think I said FY ’24, it will be more like FY ’25. But Chakla, which is 5.5 million tonne will come on stream, hopefully, by December ’23, so next year, December. And then it will take some time to ramp up to its capacity. The Meenakshi mine, we are still waiting for the government to do the formal notification to us. So we have not been able to start that. So I think of the 16 million tonnes, we will get about 6 of our own by end of, let’s say, December 24. The Meenakshi mine is another critical one, so we are awaiting its notification to us. Only after that one comes in, then we’ll be completely clear of Coal India.

Vishal Chandak — Motilal Oswal — Analyst

So, Meenakshi, we should not assume anything starting — anything coming in FY ’24. Best case scenario would be FY ’25?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

That’s correct. That’s correct.

Vishal Chandak — Motilal Oswal — Analyst

We can expect costs to be slashed drastically.

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Yes. I mean the — what’s going to happen if you look at overall Indian captive industry side, everyone has got mines and everyone’s mines are going to come on. So the demand for e-auction coal and Coal India coal will start to moderate. So then even your linkage coal availability and pricing will start to moderate. So it’s not just our coal mines. Most of the others have won coal mines that all of those should be coming on stream from, let’s say, ’23 and ’24. So I’m hoping that in the next 2 years, this tightness in the coal market will sort of disappear.

Vishal Chandak — Motilal Oswal — Analyst

Sir, just a related question to the coal mines. While we completely agree on the coal mine production coming through, but how are we planning for the evacuation? Because I think more than the production, I think the bottlenecks are also on the evacuation part, whether it’s rail, merry-go-round or the trussing system, how do we plan to address that?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Absolutely right. But that’s why for Meenakshi, we know very well, there is a siding because there’s a rail line very close by. Meenakshi is in the Sundargarh area, which is well connected from a coal point of view. So Chakla as well, we will have a rail siding into the coal mine. So actually, majority of the capex cost of a coal mine goes into land acquisition and then the railway siding.

Operator

Mr. Chandak, may we request that you return to the question queue for follow-up questions. [Operator Instructions] The next question is from the line of Arijit Dutta from Kotak Mutual Fund.

Arijit Dutta — Kotak Mutual Fund — Analyst

Thanks for the opportunity. I have only question. On Novelis, Q1, if we go to Q1 FY ’24 2 quarters down the line and if you use the current high-cost inventory, I mean if the current high-cost inventory will be out of the system and the current cost of raw materials will be replacing that? And the second thing is the renewed cost which you are saying will be much better rewarding as are guiding. So given these 2 scenarios, do you think if all other things remaining constant, for example, the current spread, current aluminum price of, say, $2,300 and the current auto can and aero demand, can we reach the $525 mark or you made some more assumption benefit to go to that $525 mark? In short, if we assume that the high-cost inventory is out and the current cost of intensity will be replacing and the NIM negotiations are already by virtue of the formula of negotiation will be better regarding, will you be able to reach the $525 mark that you are guiding?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Yes, Steve.

Steve Fisher — President & Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So just a couple of comments. We’ve said that we start to pass through costs. So you got the inventory right, inventory, the higher inventory costs will come out over the next quarter. And we have already started seeing some easing of various costs such as the higher ocean freight that would have been embedded inside of that inventory and some other easing already occurring. So that will work through the system. We will start to contractually pass through higher inflationary PPI clauses in our contracts, starting at the beginning of calendar ’23, but those are not all reset on January 1. So that will continue through the second quarter of calendar as well as we reset those. We do need some level of return to normal scrap spread in particularly South America.

So we’ve guided that we are confident that, that will occur starting in the fourth quarter, but that doesn’t need to occur. And then only a cautionary item that I put out there is the European energy situation. Today, we have seen some dramatic dropping of spot prices for natural gas and electricity. And we’ve guided that if we continue to see the spot prices where they are at today, continue, we would see similar impacts on energy that we’ve been seeing in the last couple of quarters. However, if energy did spike again, in Europe, that could dampen, will be another headwind that we’d have to deal with as well. So hopefully, that helps you. But again, we do stay confident in our $525 EBITDA per tonne guidance and ability to get back to that level.

Arijit Dutta — Kotak Mutual Fund — Analyst

The second probably a bit more on what you have just said, apart from the hike of inventory and the new contract, you also need to spread to normalize in order to reach the $525 mark, assuming that the European energy situation will not come in with any high cost. I mean energy prices will not move up further. Is my understanding correct? So the 3 variables, which are like inventory moving out and the renewed contract and only thing only the futuristic assumption will be the captive space to normalize, then only we will reach the $525 mark. Is that — is my understanding correct?

Steve Fisher — President & Chief Executive Officer

Your understanding is correct. And obviously, we’re assuming the strong market conditions in our end markets that we’ve articulated for FY ’23. But yes, your understanding is correct. And spreads again are not based off of an assumption that we need to see a dramatic increase in overall aluminum prices, but normalization of the tightness in the overall scrap market moderating over the next couple of quarters.

Operator

Mr. Dutta, may we request that you return to the question queue for follow-up questions. The next question is from the line of Pallav Agarwal from Antique Stockbroking Limited.

Pallav Agarwal — Antique Stockbroking Limited — Analyst

Sir, I just want to clarify that we do not have any mark-to-market inventory losses during the quarter. Some of the steel companies have reported some losses, but I don’t — I mean, we didn’t have any of those losses this quarter, right?

Praveen Kumar Maheshwari — Whole-Time Director & Chief Financial Officer

No, no. So inventory is valued at cost, and there is no interim losses there.

Satish Pai — Managing Director

I think what we’ve said was that Q2 results, if you look at it were — if you just take the cost of production and put it, the results were a bit better because we benefited from the opening inventory at the end of Q1 being produced at a lower cost. Whereas in Q3, the opening inventory will be the Q2 one which is produced at the higher cost. So that will have a negative impact in Q3, is what we said. There is no mark-to-market loss.

Pallav Agarwal — Antique Stockbroking Limited — Analyst

Sure. But with the LME close to — at one point of time, close to $2,200 per tonne, which is probably not very far from the cost of production. So Q3 also we don’t really expect to see any of these —

Praveen Kumar Maheshwari — Whole-Time Director & Chief Financial Officer

No, no. So you see the net realizable value of the inventory is still higher than the cost of the inventory. And that’s why we make the money as well. So the profit has been lower, but it is not as if we are making losses here.

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Losses, yes.

Pallav Agarwal — Antique Stockbroking Limited — Analyst

Sure, sir. Also, just some — if you could just help us with the availability of rakes, et cetera, because I think this was probably an issue faced by some of the companies where they had to shift from rail to road and that led to higher logistic costs. So is that something we are facing as well?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

I mean it has started to ease out, but it’s a good question because it allows me to tell you guys that we now have — the aluminum rake that we launched in the Aditya sector is owned by Hindalco. So that rake is now providing up and down coal runs only for us. And we also got our own rake in the Mahan, Renusagar sector. So we now have 2 coal rakes fully owned by Hindalco, which is helping to ease the situation because the current government rake situation is still a little bit tight.

Pallav Agarwal — Antique Stockbroking Limited — Analyst

So sir, all this is factored in this 2% to 5% reduction or probably you could have a higher reduction in cost in Q3?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

I hope we have a higher reduction, but I think that I’m just trying to give as realistic as I see it now.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Bhavin Chheda from Enam Holdings.

Bhavin Chheda — Enam Holdings — Analyst

Overall, good results in the challenging environment and good to see your downstream bifurcation, it gives much more data for us. Sir, a few questions. First on the coal mines. So I missed out a point, I think what you said in quarter 2, the coal mix at 22% balance was from own mines/private party/imports. So the imports portion would be almost negligible. And should we assume that this 22% would be largely our own mines?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

No, no. Let me repeat again. It was about 47% to 50% was linkage, 30% was e-auction. So that’s remaining 20%. That remaining 20%, roughly 6% was of our own mines and the remaining 14% was private and imported. And the imported one, whenever it is slightly better than like for some time, Indonesian coal and all happened, we took some. But generally, imported for us is less than 5%.

Bhavin Chheda — Enam Holdings — Analyst

Sure. Now sir, I see your coal mine details, I think, that is the newer one, I think you have some 5 mines. So this Gare Palma IV/V, I think the peak run rate annually should be 4 million. So are you doing 1.5, 2 kind of a thing? And if less, and then any specific reason how and when this would be ramped up?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

See, IV/V, we have officially already returned nearly 1 year ago, okay? And Dumri never started because of various regulatory reasons. So we are running 2 mines, IV/IV and Kathautia. So 2 of them combined should be giving you nearly about 1.5 to 1.75 million tonnes. So Gare Palma IV/IV in Q2 was running full. We had some land availability issues in Kathautia which we resolved. So in Q3, Kathautia is also producing.

Bhavin Chheda — Enam Holdings — Analyst

So do you think Gare Palma IV the capacity to run annually is close to 1.2, 1.3 only?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

No, no. Between Kathautia and — see Kathautia —

Bhavin Chheda — Enam Holdings — Analyst

And Gare Palma, because Kathautia I had a number of 0.8 million annual run rate, so I’m assuming —

Satish Pai — Managing Director

That’s correct. That’s correct.

Bhavin Chheda — Enam Holdings — Analyst

Right. Which means the balance — Gare Palma IV should be 1 million only.

Satish Pai — Managing Director

No, no. Gare Palma IV/IV is 0.8 and Kathautia is also about 0.8. So the nameplate capacity of these 2 mines is 1.6 million.

Bhavin Chheda — Enam Holdings — Analyst

Sure. And Dumri, Chakla, whenever they start, Dumri should be 1, Chakla should be 5 and Meenakshi should be 12?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

We are focusing on Chakla as number 1 to start by next year, that’s 5.5 and Meenakshi is 12.

Bhavin Chheda — Enam Holdings — Analyst

And what’s the status of Dumri, sorry, I didn’t got it?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Dumri is still, how should I call it, mired in regulatory issues.

Bhavin Chheda — Enam Holdings — Analyst

Okay. So any time soon, any — it’s 12 to 24 months away still, right?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Yes, more than that.

Operator

The next question is from the line of Ashish Kejriwal from Nuvama Wealth Management.

Ashish Kejriwal — Nuvama Wealth Management — Analyst

Sir, just in this quarter, when you were talking about 3% to 5% reduction in cost, and at the same time, you are seeing that your linkage coal will increase from around 48%, 50% to maybe around 60%-plus and e-auction prices have also come down. So then this 3% to 5% seems to be very, very low. So is it possible to quantify what kind of reduction in premium e-auction premium you observed? And in linkage coal, what kind of proportion you will see in that quarter?

Satish Pai — Managing Director

See, the reason is because we are already mid-November, October is over, and this easing has started. So by the time the full impact of all of this happens, it will go to Q4, which is why I’m saying that in Q3, even if we start to get this coal, it’s a first-in, first-out basis, we’ll presume it. The full impact of these reductions will not be seen in Q3. That’s the only reason.

Ashish Kejriwal — Nuvama Wealth Management — Analyst

And what about linkage coal proportion in third quarter, sir? Will it increase from 50 to 60 or —

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Not really. It will stay at that because one of our existing linkages has elapsed. So we have to go to replace, that new option will only come probably in January. So whereas the existing linkages will go up to 90%, one of the linkages that lapsed, we’ll have to get on e-auction. That’s why Q3 is still tight.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraint we will take that as the last question. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Satish Pai for closing comments.

Satish Pai — Managing Director

Yes. Thank you. I think that this quarter in a sort of challenging environment, I think we have shown the benefit of our diversified business model. And I think that the couple of points that are very important to us is that we will remain focused on our sustainability goals and targets. And the second thing is that the strength of the balance sheet will not be compromised. So we will make sure that we stay between in the targets that we had outlined during the capital allocation presentation that we did. So thank you all for your attention and wish you a good day.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]