Greenply Industries Ltd (NSE: GREENPLY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call dated Feb. 07, 2025
Corporate Participants:
Manoj Tulsian — Joint Managing Director and CEO
Sanidhya Mittal — Joint Managing Director
Nitin Kalani — Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Karan Bhatelia — Analyst
Sneha Talreja — Analyst
Udit Gajiwala — Analyst
Aishwarya Mahesh — Analyst
Bhavin Rupani — Analyst
Nikhil Gada — Analyst
Ashutosh Khaitan — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Industries Q3 FY ’25 Conference Call hosted by Asian Market Securities Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.
I now hand the conference over to Mr Karan Batelia from Asian Market Securities Private Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Karan Bhatelia — Analyst
Thanks, Hiko. Hi, everyone. A very good morning. On behalf of Asian Market Security, we thank you for joining us on Industries 3Q and nine months FY ’25 conference call. In the panel today, we have Mr, Joint Managing Director and CEO; Mr Mittal, Joint Managing Director; and Nitin Kalani, CFO.
May I now invite Manod Jee to begin the proceedings of the call. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Manoj Tulsian — Joint Managing Director and CEO
Thank you, Karan, and good morning, everyone. It is a pleasure to have you all on this call. I will be updating you on GreenPlies operating and financial performance for quarter three and Nine-Month FY 2025.
I would like to share with you that we have achieved a consolidated revenue of INR614 crores during the quarter, which is a growth of 5.6% on a Y-o-Y basis. Our consolidated core EBITDA for the quarter was at INR54 crores, a growth of 7.2% on a Y-o-Y basis. The core EBITDA margin for the quarter was at 8.8% as compared to 8.7% in-quarter three FY ’24. Our PAT for the quarter was at INR24 crores. So quarterly PAT? Am I audible?
Operator
Yes, are you audible, sir. Please go-ahead.
Manoj Tulsian — Joint Managing Director and CEO
The quarterly PAT had an impact of A, MPM gain of INR4.62 crores on our ForEx currency loan taken for our MDF business and B, share of loss from our furniture and fittings JV amounting to INR4.7 crores. So it’s almost nullified both the items together. On a Nine-Month basis, our consolidated revenue was at INR1,839 crores, which is a growth of 16.4% on a Y-o-Y basis. Our consolidated core EBITDA was at INR170 crores, which is a growth of 33% on a Y-o-Y basis. The core EBITDA margin was at 9.2% as compared to 8.1% in nine months FY ’24. The PAT was at INR75 crores.
Now I’ll share some of the individual business highlights. In the plywood business, our volume growth for the quarter was 2.8% Y-o-Y and value growth for the quarter was around 5.6% on a Y-o-Y basis. On the margin front, our core EBITDA margin for the plywood business for quarter three FY ’25 was 8.4% as against 8% in-quarter three FY ’24. The margin improved on a Y-o-Y basis by-40 basis-points. On a nine-month basis, we have achieved a revenue of INR1,445 crores, a growth of 7.5% on a Y-o-Y basis. Our core EBITDA grew by 11.3% on a Y-o-Y basis to INR119 crores over nine months FY 2025. The EBITDA margin stood at 8.2%.
Moving on to the MDF business, our revenue in-quarter three FY ’25 was INR134.6 crores and volume at 42 259 cbm. While our realizations improved to 31850 per cbm, which is an increase of 2.2% over the last quarter, our EBITDA margins declined to 10.4% as against 11.8% in the previous quarter. This was due to-high raw-material costs and unexpected plant shutdown in the month of December, which led to lower-volume sales. More details on the MDF business will be shared by later.
Moving on to our furniture and fittings JV, we started with the entire Phase-1 product range manufacturing from almost November end. We expect to see some sales in-quarter four where we launched the business and showcase the abilities to our dealers. We have already participated in two flagship exhibitions in the last quarter at Delhi and Mumbai, and the initial response to our product group has been very, very encouraging. On a consolidated basis, our net-debt levels are at INR413 crores. At the year end, our debt on a cautious approach would be around INR450 crores as guided earlier, which means our net-debt to equity ratio at the year-end would be around 0.55 despite expansion and setting up of two new line of businesses. So on March ’22, our debt-equity was somewhere around 0.55% and then the whole capex cycle played in the last three years where the peak debt-equity went up to 0.98 in March ’23 and then it dropped down to 0.71% and this year it is dropping down to 0.55. Next year, we see this dropping further despite announcing the new investments in Urissa for our plywood expansion.
With this statement, I would like to hand it over to to provide more insights on our MDF business.
Sanidhya Mittal — Joint Managing Director
Thank you,, and good morning to everyone on the call. In our MDF business, we are progressing steadily. Our sales in the quarter was negatively impacted due to an unforeseen plant shutdown in the quarter due to equipment failure. The Siemens motor developed a technical snag and had to be sent to Mumbai for repairs. During the quarter, our EBITDA margins were lower due to higher raw-material costs and plant shutdown. As a result, we are reducing our full-year margin guidance to, 13% 14% as against earlier of 16% plus. However, in the 4th-quarter, we believe that the revenue will substantially be better and margins will be stronger.
Construction of our HDF flooring line has been delayed by six months due to the late arrival of major equipments, which is likely to arrive in the month of March and will be fully functional in the month of May ’25. Construction of our glue plant is also likely to be completed in this quarter. With this, I would like to open the floor for Q&A session. Thank you.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star as R&1 on the touchstone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press R&2. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.
The first question comes from the line of Neha Talreja from Nuvama. Please go-ahead. Hi, good morning, team and thanks a lot for the opportunity and congratulations on resilient MDF performance despite the shutdown. The first question is, I just wanted to know the impact of the shutdown on the volumes of the revenues of the MDM division.
Manoj Tulsian
Hello. Yeah, I’m. Can you just repeat your question? You wanted to know the impact of the shutdown on the — of the MDF revenue?. I think it would be INR1 crores. About INR10 crores I think.
Sneha Talreja
About INR10 odd crores. And what would be the exports of MDF in this particular quarter?
Manoj Tulsian
Export numbers are negligible in our case because the revenues in exports are much lower than in the domestic segment. And since we have a very limited capacity, only one-line to sell, our focus is only the domestic market.
Sneha Talreja
Understood. And could you also quantify average timber prices? Just want to see the increase in prices for timber, both on Y-o-Y as well as quarter-on-quarter.
Manoj Tulsian
6.7 was the weighted-average rupees per kg was the weighted-average cost in the last quarter. Sorry, come again
Sneha Talreja
6.7 per kg was Q3. What would it be in Q2, sir for reference? It was INR6.5 crores.
Nitin Kalani
There was a 3% increase in raw-material cost on a quarter-on-quarter basis.
Sneha Talreja
Understood. Understood. Lastly, if I may, how is the demand environment? We could see volumes of plywood division slowing down that stating a bit in terms of overall weakness in environment. How are you reading it? Or is there any concerning point or do you see things picking-up at this point of time?
Manoj Tulsian
Yes. I think the demand scenario is that it has not really picked-up. But added to that, the major problem what we saw that even if the demand was there in pockets, liquidity was a serious challenge. And we didn’t want to compromise on our receivables policy. Otherwise, we could have done better sales. But once we do away with stringent policy what we have, it will have repercussion in the longer-term. So I could clearly see that you would have lost maybe easily 1.5% of volume just because we wanted to be controlling our receivables.
Another sign which we saw and why I’m seeing on the receivable cycle is that dealers who were always regular on paying on-time, okay, whether it was on advanced payment basis or whether it was on a due date basis, some of them also could not this time during this quarter, pay as per their payment cycle. So that was a concern where — and mostly everybody was only saying, sir, we are not getting our payments, though they are orders, but we are also trying to hold back. So that was the scenario. I think liquidity was a larger issue than the demand and that’s where it has got muted. But I think there are external steps also which is taken by RBI now to infuse liquidity. Election years, sometimes the projects gets delayed in terms of starting also. But for sure, I see now going-forward, you know, things will be very, very positive for panel business and for plywood business. A, because of the implementation of BIS regulations, which will definitely curb imports in the near-term. I don’t know about the long-term. And also you know, it will boost the organized players because with a stringent implementation of BI standards, which is from February, there would be pain for the unorganized people. So I clearly see that these are tailwinds, which will help the the business in future leave aside the domestic growth story.
Also one more point on this that when you see last three years real-estate data, the luxury in the ultra luxury segment, which used to be around 10% of the total volume sales units has now almost become 30%. So these are very good signs for organized payers like us. So I clearly see that there is, you know, a lot of opportunity now from here on for people like us in plywood business or business.
Sneha Talreja
So that’s really helpful. And just one follow-up. You also spoke about BIS implementation. Has the notification been out? Or is there any deadline to that notification coming out?
Manoj Tulsian
It was to be implemented in February end. End, I think the date was 25th of February or so. So I’m sure that you know the final whatever notification or something which has to come will come because the ministry has been very vocal in many of their statements even including print media that they are not going to give any further extension on the same.
Sneha Talreja
Yeah, that’s amazing. And any pre-dumping that you’re seeing could be a concern, which would take like four to six months-to ease out or something on that sort, which was happening last year.
Manoj Tulsian
Of course, that has happened. But you know, yes, so that can be a two, three months because the importers have to put working capital from their side and they are assuming that in two, three months, everything will get normalized. So one is their fund situation also. Second, they believe on optimism that in two, three months, all the in the export-oriented units, which is sitting in Vietnam and all those places will get a QCO approval. So those things remains to be seen because the process just started. But I think all-in all, the situation for people like us, for businesses like us, the scenario is going to be very, very good going-forward.
Sneha Talreja
Understood. And last one, I’m sorry for this one. What would have been an effective NDF price hike in the current quarter? And also could you quantify any plywood price increases taken given timber prices have further moved up?
Manoj Tulsian
MDF price increase is around 1.5% during the quarter. And on the plywood side, plywoods you are saying in the last quarter?
Sneha Talreja
Yes, Q3.
Manoj Tulsian
Q3, the price increase was around 1.5% and we are also taking another price increase during this quarter, which will also be in the range of 1.5%.
Sneha Talreja
And anything that you’re taking in MDF as well?
Manoj Tulsian
Nothing as of now.
Sanidhya Mittal
Nothing, nothing other.
Sneha Talreja
Okay, right. Understood. That was really helpful. Thanks a lot team and all the very best.
Manoj Tulsian
Thanks. Pleasure.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Udit from Yas Securities. Please go-ahead.
Udit Gajiwala
Yeah, hi, sir. Thank you for taking my question. Sir, firstly, since you mentioned that there was more pain because of receivables. Have you seen any loss of market-share or that demand must-have shifted to some other player? Could that be the case?
Manoj Tulsian
Well, it can be look — I mean it all depends because I said that maybe we have to some extent lost some amount of opportunities because we wanted to be stringent on our receivables, okay. But I think it was — we all felt that it’s a prudent decision at this point of time because with a lot of semblance, we brought this stringency in our own receivable policy over the years. So — and I said that there would be tailwinds, which will give us lot of opportunity now. And as we have worked a lot on automation in the last two, three years, we are prepared actually now that when the growth momentum would be there, we would be able to do better than maybe many other players in the industry.
Udit Gajiwala
Right, right. Got it, sir. And sir, in the press release, you have mentioned that in the plywood, you are seeing margins to improve to about 10% by Q4. So — and given — so till now if I may ask that how has the situation turned has these receivables eased off? I mean the credit maybe it has eased off or it is purely because of the price hike that you have further in calculated.
Manoj Tulsian
No, on the — we have received money, but I won’t say that it has totally eased out. There is a lot of change on the collection side because if you don’t collect money, then again, it may restrict our overall growth during the quarter. But I think things will ease out. I can definitely see that this quarter will be much better than the previous quarter, no doubt about it. And at the same one of time, we have taken many action on the cost side also as well as I just said that we are also taking another price hike of around 1.5% effective February. So of course, it is not for the full-quarter. But all these things, our initiatives clearly shows us that we should be able to move to 10% plus margin. Also because you know the volume sales in-quarter four will be much better than the volume sales in-quarter three. So operating leverage will also play. With all these factors, I mean, definitely we believe that we should be crossing 10% margin for quarter-four.
Udit Gajiwala
Understood. Understood, sir. And sir, lastly, any kind of volume growth what you are envisaging for FY ’26 maybe for plywood and also for MDF, how do you see it panning out?
Manoj Tulsian
I think we will just start our budgeting process and we would be able to give you a much better guidance in the next call.
Udit Gajiwala
Okay, sir. And sir, just last that.
Manoj Tulsian
I can see that the environment is becoming very positive for players like us in organized segment because I already — I hope you heard whatever I said on this. So I see a lot of buoyancy going-forward. Also, one more thing which is very relevant to mention that last four, five years has been a — has been a period when raw-material prices have only moved up, okay. I get a very strong now view from my team that maybe another six to nine months, but we will see this raw-material prices, supplies improving and the prices slightly start coming down. So these are all good signs for players like us who have worked hard in the last four, five years to strengthen our internal core and to get prepared to deliver when there are tailwinds. And also that is the reason that we have announced this new investments in plywood because if we don’t do that at this point of time, then possibly we will miss out big-time on our growth in FY ’27.
Udit Gajiwala
Got it. And sir, can you please just once elaborate on those investments or the capex for plywood.
Manoj Tulsian
It’s already announced. I think INR134 crores, to be very precise is the number what we have declared. This will give us a new capacity of 13.5 million square meters, which is almost addition of 25% capacity over our present manufacturing capacity.
Udit Gajiwala
Got it. Sorry if I was being repetitive, sir. Thank you so much for answering.
Manoj Tulsian
Yeah pleasure.
Operator
Thank you. Before we take the next question, a reminder to all participants, you may press star and one to ask a question. The next question comes from the line of Ashwaria from iThought PMS. Please go-ahead.
Aishwarya Mahesh
Hello, so my question is regarding the industry’s situation right now in the LBS and in the plywood as well. First I start with MDS. My question is to you that there’s been a lot of dumping from China and Vietnam on the you know different styles in different MDF and because of that, the industry share of our Indian organised players is, you know, getting divided because of which the revenues which used to come in are not coming in and because the BS the certification have been in talks, but I mean there is no confirmation yet and if it does come in, how much percentage of you know, how is it going to help organize the players.
Manoj Tulsian
So actually his voice was not clear I think what you are trying to mean is that there is a lot of imports which is happening on MDF and which is hurting the domestic industry. And if in case you are saying since there is no final date for the QCO implementation, but if that happens, how is it going to help the domestic industry, right? That’s what you are asking which yes,, would you like to answer this?
Sanidhya Mittal
Yes, I’ll answer this. So I feel that you are absolutely right, there is a huge quantity of import coming in. And the fact that QCO is coming in on in February and February is the last bit to import. So people have imported extra inventory as well. So post mid-April or starting early May, I feel that there will be increase in the domestic volume because I feel people have stocked up typically for two, three months extra. So post May onwards, I think the demand should be better and also there should be a scenario where the increased cost is passed on. Today, the increased cost of timber is not getting passed on because of the subdued demand because of imports in a big way. So the moment imports are out, I feel there should be better demand, also better pricing available. Overall for the domestic industry, we look at imports getting shot in Q3 or coming. I think this will be a very beneficial overall.
Aishwarya Mahesh
Understand, sir. Because you guys are in the business and you must-have some idea about what kind of if the certifications come in, right? What kind of effect it will have in the business. So if you can give me some idea on that, like because I don’t have any idea about it. So if you could give me some idea on how much of the.
Sanidhya Mittal
Material that is coming in, right?
Aishwarya Mahesh
The certification, sir, once it comes in, how in how it is going to impact the business? I’m sure it will be in the good way, but how much of percentage or something like that.
Manoj Tulsian
It’s difficult to mention, you know, in terms of percentage and this, but yes, for sure, that is the whole objective also that the in India concept has to be promoted. It also depends that how many licenses are being issued to these exporters who are sitting in this country is what you mentioned over the next 12 months and then they have to — I mean, it’s just not about issuing the license. They have to also adhere to the guidelines of their respective standards. So time can only say, but I think for us it’s a very positive move only now. So the domestic place is a very positive move only.
Aishwarya Mahesh
Absolutely, absolutely., just one more question on the side. I read somewhere that there’s been a lot of issues in-sourcing timber, good-quality timber because of the COVID harvesting season right, it’s become slow or something like that and it’s not recovered yet. So people are also importing timbers to meet the demand. But as you told, you are not able to pass-on the cost. What’s the problem going on that side, sir?
Manoj Tulsian
Yeah, yeah. So you know, import of timber has taken place, has been taking place, even we have been importing timbers and all the players — all the large players have been doing that. Even maybe midsized players also from time-to-time have been doing that because the prices of timber, first of all availability and then the prices have shot up so much at times that both becomes a questionability at that price whether you want to source that quantity. So — but as I said that you know the filler which is coming from my plantation team is we are now nearing the end of this cycle of high timber prices. They are saying that another nine to 12 months for sure, the timber availability will improve in India and that will continue to improve and that will bring down the prices also. So we have almost crossed this cycle. And it’s a cycle. It’s like any other agri commodity, it’s a cycle. Last three, four years, we were caught on the wrong side of it and possibly from the next year, we will be on the positive side of it.
Aishwarya Mahesh
I understand, sir. Thank you so much for answering my questions.
Manoj Tulsian
Pleasure.
Operator
Thank you. A reminder to all the participants, you may press R&1 to ask a question. The next question comes from the line of Karan Bateria from. Please go-ahead.
Karan Bhatelia
Hi, team, am I audible?
Manoj Tulsian
Yes, yes,.
Karan Bhatelia
Yeah., there is with respect to the MDF capex, any thought process now? Sorry, come again? I wanted to have some clarity on the MDF capex. Any thought process on that?
Manoj Tulsian
I think it’s still too soon for us to think of another capex. Obviously, when we strategize our business or as we discussed, we are quite excited about thinking of growth or thinking of new lines, et-cetera. But looking at our balance sheet, looking at this line further stabilizing, I think this moment will still be an early moment to comment when we are going to do the next capex. Depending on how the profits are, how quickly we are able to pay-back this and looking at our balance sheet, we will decide. I think it’s still too early to think of our capex right now. are you talking about the current CapEx-related to the fluorine line? I don’t — what do you talk about? No, for the new capex, right?
Karan Bhatelia
Yeah, yeah. Also, we were, you know, focusing on a brownfield capex, so is that on-track very soon?
Manoj Tulsian
Yeah. So brownfield, honestly, we have a provision to increase 20% of the capacity of this existing line where we’ve already kind of incurred the cost because we’ve already imported the equipment for extension and it’s been lying with us for the last one year. But since we have only one plant, expanding this line by 20% means disrupting supply for 30 days. And at the moment, we are not in a position to take that risk, given that we only have one plant and now we have a good OEM as well as a distributor dealer network base who somehow left competition and is with us. So to continue the service and to provide them the material, we are not being able to take a 30-day shutdown. So that’s the reason that the brownfield expansion is in a way on-hold at the moment, number-one.
Number two, we are adding a flooring line to our existing MDF line, so which will help us increase the value-added sales and help us improve the product mix further. So that is existing. And as far as the new capex is concerned, there’s nothing on the cars at the moment given our balance sheet the way it is today. Once we are able to pay-back and the margins improve, things get better, we’ll definitely think of going further.
Karan Bhatelia
All right. And on the joint-venture, what is the visibility we have for ’26, ’27 on-top line, bottom-line and the total investment by both the parties.
Nitin Kalani
So we are just starting our budgeting exercise, Karan, because the whole plan, I would say, in a way, got delayed by five to six months because the machinery which were to come from Turkey got delayed and then the installation of the same, all those things. So I said that last month was the first month when we started production properly with the new machine. And so — and this month, we have a full-fledger dealer meet inviting and showcasing them our products and the factories and everything. So once all those things is done and we get our initial response, we’ll do our budgeting exercise. I think in a couple of months, we would be in a good position once we discuss with our Turkey partners also. But just a ballpark number, I would say that you know definitely, we feel that touching anywhere around INR80 crores to INR100 crores in the coming year is a number which is doable, but it is very, very early because we will just step into the market. In two months’ time we’ll get a feel of the market and then we can really frystallize on the numbers, whether it can further go up or whether it can remain around that number.
Karan Bhatelia
Right. And one last question was on the plywood capex. So will this be only for the premium kind of a portfolio or it will have mix of mid and economy and premium and timeline for this?
Nitin Kalani
No, it will be mixed only. And the timeline we are expecting that in-quarter four — end-of-quarter four next year, we will be doing our trial runs and we should be prepared for FY ’27 to start commercial production from that particular plant because there are still few approvals, which is pending. So the work will still not start. The work may only start after a couple of months or so. And that’s why we are assuming that post the same, it will take around 10 odd months for us to bring the whole facility.
Karan Bhatelia
Thank you. Thank you for the clarity. That’s it from my side. Thanks. Thanks, sir.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, a reminder to all participants, you may press star and one to ask a question. The next question comes from the line of Bhavin Rupani from Investec. Please go-ahead.
Bhavin Rupani
Hi, sir. Thank you so much for the opportunity. Sir, we had a few quarters before talked about getting into segment. Though although initially on trading model. So what is the status right now over there?
Manoj Tulsian
So not much, Abhavin. We thought about it, but then we thought that we have too many things on the. We have done it in a very small way, but I don’t think it is at this point of time worth-mentioning. Maybe we look at it how it pans out in the next one or two quarters. And then if it becomes meaningful, we’ll come back to all of you with our business plan on the same. Also, maybe the next two quarters will give us the clarity whether our approach is right and what should we do about it.
Bhavin Rupani
Got it, sir. Any kind of revenue that we are generating as of now or.
Manoj Tulsian
Bot worth-mentioning.
Bhavin Rupani
Yeah. Got it. Sir, you mentioned about — as far as fiber is concerned, you mentioned about taking price hikes in this quarter as well. But. But have the unorganized players in Yamuna Nagar or Kerala have taken price hikes? And do you think because of our price hikes, the differential between our prices and unorganized players will increase and demand may move towards them.
Manoj Tulsian
Your voice is not very clear. I have not been able to pick-up your question.
Bhavin Rupani
So I was ask I was asking that you had mentioned about price hikes that you are taking price hike as far as plywood.
Manoj Tulsian
Sorry, your voice is not at all-clear.
Bhavin Rupani
Is it better now?
Operator
Yes, sir, please go-ahead, sir.
Bhavin Rupani
Sir, you had mentioned about taking price hikes in plywood segment. But have the unorganized players in, they have taken any price hikes? Any sense on that?
Manoj Tulsian
No, I mean, you know, I have — I’ve not really tracked that whether how many players are taking or have taken, but we have been hearing that in pockets some of these people have taken, but I won’t say that it’s a very industry loud noise that, yes, all of them are going for a price increase or something?
Bhavin Rupani
So sir, any idea or sense on what is the pricing differential between our product and their product? And is there any increasing differential which could lead to demand moving towards unorganized from organized?
Manoj Tulsian
No, I don’t think so because when we have taken this price increase, we have taken it with our own internal study and this, wherever we saw that there are gaps and we can because even margins for sure was subdued for the last many quarters. So wherever we felt that, yes, there is an opportunity and it is not across the country, okay. So it is in-markets and in products where we felt that, yes, there is a gap and this gap can be mitigated, it can be reduced.
Bhavin Rupani
Got it, clear, sir. Sir, first as far as you also mentioned that timber prices are expected to come down after nine to 12 months. But do you think if timber prices decline, I think maybe unorganized players will choose to pass it on to the customers and hence forcing us to bring down our selling price as well?
Manoj Tulsian
I think again, I’m very bullish, particularly on this implementation of QCU because once these standards are really implemented and these are being followed and they are proper checks which is done by the department, this can be a big positive, you know, a tailwind for the organized players. That will in itself differentiate between the organized players and the unorganized players. So you know this truly is going to make the difference, the way it looks like, the way whatever we have discussed in various segments and in the in even the at the CI levels and other places, it comes out that this can be a big game-changer. But it all depends on the implementation in this country. So right now, the signs are very, very encouraging. So if that happens, you know that — I mean it automatically differentiates between the rightful organized players and unorganized players because we all know that there is a Iota of difference in the product level itself. So that will pose a lot of problem for them to cater to the various standards. And if they really cater to, then their prices will short up. So that will not be very then exciting for the dealers to get into that rather they would lap up organized players products?
Bhavin Rupani
Got it. Fair enough. And sir, last question on. Can you give us some lead indicators which can help one predict what is the demand-supply scenario in that and segment? Or let me put it underway. What are the lead indicators, which makes you believe that timber prices are expected to decline after nine to 12 months.
Manoj Tulsian
So like I said that we have a plantation team, which works day-in and day-out and it’s a large-enough team. And since they are in the field, they know that what is the progress on the timber, which has been actually shown around three, four, five years back. They have been continuously tracking it. And that’s why maybe if you go back to my calls around three or four-quarter back, I would have mentioned that it looks like it will — the timber prices will continue for another six to eight quarters. So this is all basis the feedback from our team and our ground level research, which gives us that confidence.
Bhavin Rupani
Fair enough, sir. Any data points that we can track is it possible? Any data points that we can track to have to get sense on where the timber prices will move going ahead.
Manoj Tulsian
No, I think the proof of the will be in its heating. So once the timber price — so what has happened in the last 12 months, the sign is that the timber prices, it — where from it started from that point, it went up and then again it tapered down. So if you truly see between last March and this March in Yamnanagar and the UP belt, the timber prices are almost at the same level now. So that’s a good encouraging sign that finally, you know, this year, it has slightly tapered down. And maybe that might be a lead indicator. And if you people monitor it now for the next two quarters for sure you know that may give more comfort and confidence.
Bhavin Rupani
Got it. And sir, last question on MDF pricing. We have taken a buyback of 1.5%. So is this price hikes across all the players or maybe — so yesterday one of the players indicated that they had not taken any price hike in South. So is it just that we were able to take the price hike or are there any price hikes in northern parts of the country?
Sanidhya Mittal
So I think it is across players this price rise and most players have been able to implement players with too much capacity or maybe too much pressure related to import, if their OEM sales are very heavy, they must-have had difficulty in certain pockets to take the price size. But I think overall as an industry, there is a huge raw-material pressure and there’s a demand pressure. So companies with smaller capacity, it was easier for them to implement companies with larger capacity. I guess it was getting difficult for them to implement. But I feel most players have taken this kind of a rise to beat their cost.
Bhavin Rupani
All right. Perfect. Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Nikhil Gada with Abakus AMC. Please go-ahead.
Nikhil Gada
Yeah, hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Yeah. Sir, just firstly, can you provide us the current mix for and how much are we importing vis-a-vis, how much are we sourcing locally? And what would be the price differential that we are getting as of now and whether is it that we are doing it only for plywood or also for MDF?
Manoj Tulsian
Nikhil, I don’t have the numbers readily. Maybe I’ll ask my team to provide you the same subsequently. We are doing this for plywood, but we are not doing this for MDL.
Nikhil Gada
And the price differential, by any chance you have it?
Manoj Tulsian
Well, it will range in the difference of around INR2 type per kg. But again, not all timbers and of the same, this can be imported and the species are different. So it is not a one-to-one comparison. And you can also not use it across. So there are lots of challenges in that also. But yes, to some extent, in certain plywood category, we can use that in some minimal proportion.
Nikhil Gada
And are we largely sourcing this from Myanmar and all those places or can you give — from where are we sourcing.
Manoj Tulsian
From wherever — whenever it’s possible, we are doing it. And I think all the industry players are doing it. But again, as I said that internally, we are getting a good feel that possibly we are almost reaching towards the end of that cycle. Let’s see, but all these things is because we have been under this pressure for last good four years post COVID continuously, right. So normally this cycle lasts for three to four years. It’s still elongated. We are still believing that maybe the pain will remain for two to three more quarters.
Nikhil Gada
Got it, sir. Sir, one last question on the plywood front. Can you sort of help us understand what is the current demand-supply scenario in the industry? And do — this BIS norms, I’m assuming is also on plywood. So does it anyway because I’m sure there is not so much of an imports on plywood. But can it in any way sort of boost us up in terms of our volumes?
Manoj Tulsian
No, absolutely. I made that in my opening remarks and I think a few of the analysts also checked. I think it’s a very positive sign for the organized players because this one, it will control, it will bring plywood to a particular product quality level which is a differentiator, but which does not get valued in this country. So plywood actually sells at a very strong price point rather than being sold-on functionality, okay. So even branded good players, when we add functionality, we don’t get the real worth of the same. So the time has come with the thanks to government and I’m sure as I said that implementation is the key, but the original signs are very, very encouraging. The signs which we are getting from the department is that they will do random checks not only at the factory, but they will also pick-up a material from the market, which is having any you know, IS stamping. Of course, every product has to have a IS stamping and they will take it to lab and test that whether it conforms to that particular standard or not. And if not that they will — then they will penalize in terms of maybe canceling or withdrawing the license of that particular vendor or manufacturer for a good three months, six months and some you know. So if those stringencies are being followed, I’m sure the quality of the product will improve and the quality of the product will improve, it will definitely hit the unorganized market.
Nikhil Gada
Understood. So just a demand-supply scenario, if you have.
Manoj Tulsian
The demand-supply scenario, you know, post-election, I think the one the projects got delayed, okay, a lot of money definitely comes after the elections at on the consumption side. But this time, one, yes, projects were delayed because of the elections. Second, somewhere the liquidity surely was a big issue, which we saw in the market, which we still see in the market. But I think that we have all read that RBI is taking those initiatives, they have taken initiatives already also. So that should be — that should ease out.
And I also mentioned that when I was looking at some data, the residential sales in the country where the volume of luxury and ultra luxury used to be around 10% three years back is now almost around 30% or 31%. So these are very encouraging signs for any branded goods player. So coupled with this discipline on the QCO side, BIS side and even traction of residential sales on higher price points, I think these things are very, very positive signs for businesses like us.
Nikhil Gada
Understood, sir. Sir, anything on the supply front, I mean, are we seeing some capacities getting shut or something purely because of the higher timber prices, et-cetera? And are we seeing a situation where we are like the demand and supplier doing sort of a neck-to-neck?
Manoj Tulsian
Look, these are all research-based data-only, which we just pick-up from the market. There are no reports. But surely, yes, the unorganized has felt the heat in the last few years in terms of continuous increase in the material prices. But as I said that plywood sells in the country on a price point and not on functionality. Now from now onwards, you will see that it starts selling on functionality. When that happens, the real heat of the price increase will be felt by the unorganized players, correct. And that will bring down the difference between the two drastically. And that then encourages better sales and traction for organized players like us.
Nikhil Gada
Got it, sir. Thank you so much. Very helpful. All the best.
Manoj Tulsian
Pleasure. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the last question comes from the line of Ashutosh Khetan with Asian Market Securities. Please go-ahead.
Ashutosh Khaitan
Yeah, hi, sir. I just wanted to ask the volume growth guidance of plywood and MDF for FY ’26.
Manoj Tulsian
For the coming year?
Ashutosh Khaitan
Yeah, for FY ’25, yeah.
Manoj Tulsian
So we’re just doing our budgeting. We just started the process. So give us couple of months in the next meeting, we will share that in detail.
Ashutosh Khaitan
No, so for FY ’25 only this year.
Manoj Tulsian
FY ’25. So FY ’25, the volume, I think we are at around 5.7% right now. And with quarter-four, we will try to be anywhere around anywhere around 7% plus, not easy, but definitely we have plans. Let’s see how it pans out. And for MDF, we had initially targeted almost a 50% growth over last year. We should be around that number for the full-year.
Ashutosh Khaitan
Okay. Thank you so much.
Manoj Tulsian
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that brings us to the end-of-the question-and-answer session. As there are no further questions from the participants, I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Sanidhya Mittal
Thank you all for taking time to participate in this call. In case of any further clarifications or queries, please feel free-to reach us. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. On behalf of Asian Market Securities Private Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines.