GHCL Ltd (NSE: GHCL) Q3 2026 Earnings Call dated Jan. 29, 2026
Corporate Participants:
R S Jalan — Managing Director
Raman Chopra — Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director
Analysts:
Unidentified Participant
Meet Vora — Analyst
Presentation:
operator
Sam sa. Sa. Sam it. It. Foreign. Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to GHCL Limited Q3FY26 earnings conference call hosted by MK Global Financial Services Limited as a reminder, all participant lines will be in the lesson only mode and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing Star then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Meath Vora from MK Global Financial Services Ltd. Thank you. And over to you, sir.
Meet Vora — Analyst
Thank you. Good afternoon everyone. Thank you for joining us on GHCL’s Q3FY26 results conference call. I would like to welcome the management and thank them for giving us this opportunity to host them. We have with us today Mr. R.S. dilan, Managing Director, Mr. Raman Chopra, CFO and Executive Director of Finance Mr. Manu Jain, General Manager, Investor Relations and Finance. Before we begin this call, I would like to point out that some statements made in this call may be forward looking and a disclaimer to this effect has been included in the earnings presentation shared with you earlier.
I shall now hand over the call to the management for their opening remarks. Thank you. And over to you, Sir.
R S Jalan — Managing Director
Thank you. Mith Good afternoon everyone. A very warm welcome to GSL’s Q3FY26 earning call. I hope you had a chance to look at our results as well as the investor presentation uploaded earlier. Let me start with the industry landscape. The global environment remains dynamic and challenging. However, the domestic story continues to be resilient. We are seeing the healthy demand growth for sodas in India hovering around 5%. This is a positive sign for a long term. On the supply side, the market continues to be oversupplied. We have witnessed a steady influx of import. For the first time in nine months of this fiscal year, import volume has noticeably increased increased by 10% compared to the same period of last year.
This high level of import continues to put pressure on market realization. While this creates a challenging competitive landscape, our focus remains on what is within our control. We are focusing on enhancing our operational efficiencies and cost leadership to navigate these headwinds. Coming to our performance this quarter, I am pleased to share that we have successfully completed our planned maintenance shutdown during Q3FY26. While this shutdown resulted in some loss of production volume, we managed the inventory and supply chain effectively. As a result, our top line for the quarter was not impacted. This down demonstrates the strength of our customers relationship and our planning capabilities.
We remain committed to creating value for our shareholders. I am happy to report that we successfully completed our shareholders buyback program of rupees 300 crores. This reflects our strong cash generation ability and our confidence in the company’s future. Moving to our growth initiative, we are in the final stage of our expansion projects Bromine and Vacuum Salt. Both projects are in the last leg of completion. We expect commissioning to happen towards the end of current quarter that is Q4FY26. These projects will diversify our business and provide new growth avenues. Greenfield Soda Project progress has been slower than expectation.
This project is a significant strategic investment and part of our long term goals. In summary, while external factors like import present challenges, GSL stands on a strong foundation that is backed by strong cash flow through volatile industry scenarios and our emphasis on the driving operational efficiencies. Bromine and Vacuum Salt represents a change in product mix and diversification. With safety, sustainability and operational excellence as key driver, we are in the position to deliver to our shareholders and all stakeholders. I would like to thank all our shareholders and our investors for their continued trust in gscl. I will now hand over the call to Raman to walk through the financial highlights.
Thank you.
Raman Chopra — Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director
Thank you sir. Good evening everyone and a very warm welcome to our earning call for the third quarter and nine months ended 31 December 2025. Our performance remains steady. This is a result of our focus on operational excellence and efficient manufacturing. We achieved this despite the challenging pricing environment in the industry. I will now walk through the key financial highlights. Revenue for the quarter came in at 773 crore compared to 807 crore in the corresponding quarter of last year and increased from 739 crore in Q2 of the current year. This reflects the tough global market condition resulting in cheaper imports into India which has adversely impacted our realizations.
EBITDA for the quarter stood at 175 crore compared to 259 crore in Q3 of last year and 175 crore in. Q2 of this year. We reported a bit of margin of 22.7% in the current quarter on a Q. On Q basis our EBITDA margin declined by 100bps mainly due to fall in realization. Our ability to protect profitability even in this environment is a direct result of our deep rooted philosophy of cost control and operating efficiency. PAT from continuing operations stood at 107 crore compared to 168 crore in the corresponding quarter of last year and a similar profit in Q2 of this year during the quarter we have undertaken the plant maintenance shutdown which led to temporary reduction in production. Despite the shutdown and subdued domestic realization, we maintained steady quarter and quarter performance driven by strong operational efficiency and effective cost management.
For nine months period, 31st December 2020 we generated 443 crore in cash profit after tax. Out of this we spent our almost 226 crore on capex and 29 crore on repayment of loan. While working capital was released by 109 crore. During the quarter we have successfully completed 300 crore buyback. This is in addition to 115 crore dividend payments made during the financial year. In total, we have rewarded our shareholders by distributing 415 crore rupees during the nine months period of this financial year which is 116% of pad for for the nine months period in a period of external volatility.
This moves reflects the strength of our balance sheet and our commitment to consistently rewarding the shareholders. We have net cash surplus of around 890 crore rupees as at the end of nine month period FY26. This financial agility supports our strategic CAPEX execution and provides significant growth headroom. With this I conclude my comments and now request the moderator to open the forum for question and answer. Thank you.
Questions and Answers:
operator
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch tone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question cue, you may press star and two participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Aditya Ketan from Smith Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Thank you sir for the opportunity. So just a couple of questions sir. Recently we know that anti dumping duty on soda ash has not been imposed. Coupled with this we are witnessing 10 lakh tonnes import of soda ash consistently. How you see the growth story of the company panning out in this headwind and considering the near term expansions of bromine and salt, is this enough to like to diversify the company from near soda ash into these smaller businesses? How you see the story panning out for the next two to three years? In brief sir.
R S Jalan
Very valid question. First and foremost, first and foremost, yes you are right that anti therapy duty has not been confirmed by the Ministry of Finance. But the positive side of this entire soda is business is that the growth story in India itself is Like I mentioned to you, growth Story has been very significant. Just to give you a number next year, what looks like is that the way the green energy initiatives are being taken and this will kind of enhance the demand perspective of the Indian soda last year means the current year looks to be around 5% and this number could be better than this 5% in the next year.
So demand definitely takes care of some of the import which is happening along with some of the additional capacity which has been built into the domestic industries. The second part, yes, at this point of the time there’s a headwind that I mentioned in my opening remark as well because of the global demand supply situation. But couple of things which are spanning out and we don’t know how that will shape up in the coming forward like the rupee devaluation versus the Chinese Yuan appreciation versus dollar. This is a kind of. I would say this is a positive sign.
Second, the Chinese government’s philosophy of evolution which they have introduced and probably many of the chemical and some of our consumer like what you call solar panels, those kind of people, they will be. Plot the list. So far the GSL is concerned, as I mentioned, in spite of such a high reduction in the selling price, we have been able to significantly operate our plant and efficiently operate the plant. And we have been able to mitigate to a large extent our margin erosion because of the cost advantage which we have done in the operational efficiencies. And this is going to be permanent in our what you call benefit.
Once the recovery start happening. This will have an advantage both advantage will have to us. In terms of your second in the related question, diversification of bromine and what you call vacuum salt. See, this is a strategic move and I just wanted to highlight. We started thinking about this four or five years back and on the continuous possibility of explaining and getting a new technology. We have been able to navigate this into the diversification first time in the GSCL. And this is a kind of a, I would say add on advantage because both these projects are more of a part of the GSL.
Because all what we are doing is we are using the waste energy and this will significantly help us to kind of improve our bottom line. Of course the number will be smaller, but these are the kind of strategic moves same way bromine from the existing salt capacity. What we have, we have been able to build this bromine project and this again will have an advantage of kind of a margin. And broadly my understanding is both these businesses, of course the top line will not be very significantly higher. However the margin percentage are going to be Higher.
And this definitely will add on to our bottom line. It will help us to improve our bottom line.
Unidentified Participant
Got it. Thank you for that explanation. You had mentioned in your opening remarks that this quarter there was a shutdown. So ideally sir, like prices are similar to last quarter or I think they are slightly lower only coupled with lower volumes. So ideally top line should decline on quarter. On quarter basis it seems to be like on a higher side. 5% up. Is there any like something which is missing?
R S Jalan
No, Aditya, I’ll just explain you. Though my production is down but my. My revenue is higher. Because my volume sell to the customers has been higher.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, okay, okay. So selling volumes have been higher which is why your top line has moved up.
R S Jalan
Right?
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Okay. Sir. When we look at the financial in this quarter, sir, the cost of raw materials seems a good steep geography. On quarter. On quarter and yy basis some 20% jump we are witnessing. But on the hillside the top line has only grown by roughly 4% 2%. So is there any some component of inventory losses or like we have not been able to pass on the prices.
R S Jalan
No. I don’t know which number you are talking about. If you can give me specific where you are talking. Cost of raw material will always have a kind of a component of the inventory adjustment. Also like inventory adjustment. I’m talking finish goods inventory adjustment.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Inventory losses figure.
R S Jalan
No, no. There is no inventory losses. I said inventory adjustment. See, cost of invent. Cost of raw material represents the production which we have done during this quarter. Right? And the inventory adjustment happens on the finished goods. So you have to look at in totality of both these things put together. And if you have any specific detailed question on this you can always answer you on the on offline. But rest assured there is no such kind of inventory losses into this system.
Unidentified Participant
Got it. In the presentation you mentioned phase two bromine of 10,000 tons. Like earlier sir, it was some 12,000 tons capacity expansion. There is some change into that bromine.
R S Jalan
See bromine. Let Aditya, there are two components. One component is the existing solfil. What we have there. We have added a. Or we have created a capacity of 2,800. In the new project which we have got the government land which is far off from here there once we commission there will be another 10 to 12,000 tons of the additional volume will come in. But that will take few years maybe then only that will get added. For the immediate basis it is only 2,800 tons. Such as. One last question. Considering this bromine and new salt field at peak Utilization how much of EBITDA diversification we can take place from the newer businesses, the new businesses, as I. Said, if you look at the current what these two businesses, vacuum salt and the bromine, the numbers of the top lines are not very significant though margins are significantly higher. But the top line is not very significant. So the diversification from the revenue perspective is not going to be significantly higher.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, sir, got it. Thank you for join documentation. Thanks.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rohit Sinha from Suniti Securities. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah, thank you for taking my question, sir. Just I missed out on listening to that ADD thing. So are we now completely in the faith like this? ADD is now ruled out completely or still there is a scope that after some time maybe ministry will consider.
R S Jalan
So far as our understanding is concerned, the government, the Finance Ministry has to approve that it is in 90 days that 90 days already passed and though they don’t communicate whether they approved or they are rejected, but 90 since the 90 days has been passed and as per the customary we need to assume that they have not in favor of approving it.
Unidentified Participant
Got it. So secondly, on the solar side, I mean we have been quite positive on the solar industry in terms of demand from how, how much improvement Basically we have seen in last maybe three to four quarter or five quarters since we have been focusing and I mean from five, five or six quarter back what was the kind of volume which we are going for this solar side and now at what percent? I know it would be very small, but still, I mean have we seen a decent improvement?
R S Jalan
I’ll just tell you my understanding. See at this point of a time they’re all the projects which are getting commissioned or are in the process of getting commissioned. Currently at this point of a time the demand per month is around 11,000 tons and in next one year by March 27th that will go to 28,000 tons. That means almost around you can say 17,000 tons of the extra demand. And these are the all projects which are final which are under implementation extra per month. So 17,000 means we are talking about something around 2,40,000 or something of that number will be the extra demand will happen.
Of course it will happen on a, on every quarter the increment will happen. But peak of the demand in March 27th will be 28,000 tons per month. So that’s a very significant demand so far. As your question of in the last few quarters, you remember that a couple of quarters back there was a kind of a duty and there was a kind of a duty on the. On the. Or the exemption on the duty of the solar panel and solar glass import into Solar glass import into India that has been removed few quarter back, only two quarter back if my memory is correct.
And after that the new, all these new project has started getting commissioned. But still I would say that this 11,000 ton, I don’t have a specific number but probably maybe this was around 5 to 7,000 tons. Maybe a few quarter back. Now it is around 10 to 11,000 ton.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, okay, okay, got it. And lastly on this Bromine bromine project, I mean from next quarter onwards, what sort of revenue contribution we would be expecting? And I mean my point is that we are seeing bromine prices quite increasing in the recent time. So have we started any interaction with the customers or how this thing will be translating to the revenue?
R S Jalan
First and foremost, let me say that this Bromine project will get commissioned by end of March 26. The benefit of this project will be in the next quarter, first quarter of next year. The total capacity, what we have is around 2,800 tons. However, that will take some time to kind of stabilize quality gate needs to be established. Because you know that the first time we are going for the bromine project, we need to establish the quality also and things like that. Once everything gets settled down, then probably the number will be coming. Like I said, revenue will not be very significant.
You have the number and you know the market price based on that you can always easily kind of look at that number. But it all depends on how this ramp up happens and how the quality gets established. But we are positive that in 26, 27 a good amount of bottom line addition should happen from the vacuum salt as well as from the bromine.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, okay, that’s it from my session. Thank you.
R S Jalan
Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Janam Gilani from Swan Investments. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Hi sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Since we had a shutdown in the previous quarter, what was the volumes lost because of that?
R S Jalan
Approximately around 20,000 tons.
Unidentified Participant
And how much of our inventory did.
R S Jalan
We liquidate during the quarter? See, the sales has been higher than the production and so to that extent the inventory has been liquidated. That’s a precisely because if we look. At the overall realization, the realization for the soda is has been on the declining trend in this quarter also. But when you compare our revenue, our revenue has seen as marginal improvement or a flat on a sequential basis. So is that the inventory liquidation is to the tune of 1020 odd percent or how shall one look at the scenario at this point of time or what sort of inventory are we holding it right now on? Soda is fund. In terms of like I said, production is down by 20,000 tonight. Sales has not been impacted. The sales is better than the last quarter as well and therefore the inventory reduction has been there specific number, the quantitative number we don’t have at this point of time. And yes you are right, the sales price has been dropped during this quarter as compared to the last quarter as well. But because of like I said, operational efficiencies and the higher sales we have been able to maintain the top line as well as the bottom line. When we say there is a significant improvement in the operational efficiency which has resulted into a better performance on the EBITDA level of the flight performance. So what sorts of levers do we have now to further improvise on the efficiencies or we have capitalized almost all the cost levers that we had in the last quarter. See I would just like to highlight here is that this is a culture which we have built over a period of time in the GSCL where we never say that all labor has been exhausted. You know that when you become more better then it becomes more harder for the further betterment. But that journey continues. If I Remember correctly, last year 2425 versus 2324, we have highlighted that we have almost saved around 140 crore in the year by the operational efficiencies. Same way the continue of journey of this year also continues. And at this point of the time I don’t have a number that how much operational efficiency we have been able to build.
But this journey will continue how much that amount will be. Sometimes it can be higher, sometime it can be lower. But I am very, I would say that proudly, I would say that we have been able to implement all the cost reduction project or the optimization over a period of last many years and this journey will continue in the future as well. And many opportunities are there. Let me tell you, there are many opportunities in the raw material consumption on the what you call power consumption or on the steam consumption or the efficiency improvements, there are many, many such opportunities are there and it will continue.
So and now when we look assuming that if the price of the soda has remained at its current level the next two years we’ll see marginal growth coming on from the bromine and the vacuum which is the smaller project at. This point of time. So once we scale up, definitely it will take time. But there is a significant delay that is happening on a Green field on a regulatory approvals. So can you highlight what at where and at what area which is getting stuck in terms of the approvals and when can we see a improvement on that level? See like very nicely highlighted the point. You see any project when the greenfield project, when you go the major hurdle comes in the land. And currently at this point of the time our major hurdle is on the land side only. We have got the environmental clearances. We have got all other approvals. The land acquisition and the land uses change. There are some technical hurdles are there and that we are trying to sort out how much time it will take. It is very difficult at this point of time because we are. We don’t know how much time it will take.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, so that’s it for my sir.
R S Jalan
Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rohit Navraj from 361 Capital. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Thanks for the opportunity. So first question is on the ADD front. So do we. Are we planning to reapply for the add? And a light question to that. Till December we had the minimum import price restriction. So has it continued from January or has it lapsed? Thank you.
R S Jalan
See Roy, first and foremost from the industry side all efforts are there to look at some kind of a protections of the government either in the form of ADD or in the form of other protection. There are many other opportunities are there and we are working on that. So far as the MIP is concerned this has got expired in 31 December because at the time the expectation of the anti dumping duty was alive. But we have reapplied and the things are under consideration of the government.
Unidentified Participant
Sure, that’s helpful. Question is on the broader industry perspective. So we have seen generally that Asia is the market where soda ish demand and consumption has been growing. Just wanted your perspective given that you track all the markets is there any structural stagnation or decline in Europe and US which are the developed countries and because of which at least for the short term there will not be any material improvement as far as pricing is concerned. Given that whatever volumes will be lost from these geographies the incremental supplies will be able to take care of demand from the growing geographies like say Asia.
Thank you.
R S Jalan
See Rohit, let me give you a slightly broader understanding of mine. See there are two things which has happened. And you know that China is a leader in terms of the out of the total capacity I think almost around 50% is in China itself. Okay. The two development which has happened in last two years first and foremost is the new additional green, what you call natural soda. Commissioned almost around 10, 11 million tons of the new addition has been done. At the time the demand in China was booming because of the solar and the lithium ion.
And like I said last year it was around 14% demand growth. However, in 25 the demand growth in the solar as well as the real estate has been on the slower side. And 25 the demand has been de grown by around 1 or 2%. So there is a demand supply mismatch in China which has led to the oversupply. The second part, because of the geopolitical situation, even Europe demand has been, has not been, has been. Right now I would say that they are more not growing. Even in the last few quarters it has not gone down as well.
US is slightly improving demand of the US however, because of China, because of Europe. This is the surplus situation so far as the India is concerned. As I mentioned in the opening remark also that Indian demand has been significantly better. So if you look at in terms of the demand side, I don’t see in this part of the world, Asian part of the world, there is any concern the moment the slightly balance happens between this demand supply and slightly recovery in the Chinese demand happens, the things will be looking better.
operator
Sir, the line for the participant seems to be disconnected. Shall we move on to the next participant?
R S Jalan
Please do that.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Darshita from DSP Asset Managers. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah, thank you for the opportunity. So could you help us out with the sales volume growth for the quarter.
R S Jalan
We have? I’ve already given you the number in terms of the revenue and we don’t generally talk about the volumes.
Unidentified Participant
Could you just give at least a number as to how much of the volume growth? You said it was positive for the quarter. I mean.
R S Jalan
Yeah, it’s okay. We don’t give out the volume number as such, but if you could just help us out with the percentage growth. Volume growth is roughly around 5 to 6% or plus 5% higher as compared to the same quarter of last year. Okay. It’s about 5% higher. 5 to 7% kind of a number will be there.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah, that’s all. Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Darshan Diora from Invest Group. Please go ahead. Darshan, your line has been unmuted. Please go ahead with your question.
Unidentified Participant
Hello?
operator
Yes, you’re audible.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah, yeah, sorry. You know, so a couple of questions. The imports that we have been witnessing in India, which countries are they primarily coming from.
R S Jalan
The primary, the volumes are coming historically has been coming from Turkey, us, Iran and Russia.
Unidentified Participant
Okay.
R S Jalan
Now in the this quarter some volume has started coming in from China as well.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. And in China, you know, the natural soda capacity which is coming up in Mongolia, what was, I mean how much has been commissioned so far?
R S Jalan
It has been completely. The 10 billion has 100 has been commissioned.
Unidentified Participant
10 million. Okay. Is there any more capacity expected to come up in that same region?
R S Jalan
Yeah, they are talking about a million ton new capacity which is likely to come in one or two years in the same location. And maybe they are looking at one more opportunity in the other location, but that will take some three, four years of time. I just wanted to highlight one thing here, very important kind of highlight. Even at the slower demand in the globe, even if the demand grows by 2%, we require at least 2 million tonnes of the new additional capacity to fulfill the demand supply. And therefore the new capacity has to come in to kind of balance the demand supply.
Raman Chopra
Yeah, that I think you have mentioned earlier also in past calls and that’s totally taken note of. You know, in China there is this emulation campaign which is happening, you know, so in a lot of sectors, including the solar supply chain, you know, the government is trying to cut out excess capacity, you know, because unnecessarily margins are, you know, getting compressed. Return on investment is getting compressed. Anything like that happening in the soda ash industry also in terms of the synthetic capacities or the less efficient older capacities getting shut down, anything you’ve been hearing.
R S Jalan
I think 100% this is likely to happen as per our understanding because all this like a very lightly said this evolution process, there are many plants in China which are less efficient. They are also impacting the environment where also the Chinese governments are very concerned about it. And this is likely to happen. When it will happen, we don’t know, but definitely that is going to happen. Second, as you rightly said, this evolution will also help. At this point of time we are reasonably confident that the people are not making money and this will definitely kind of a government focus will be there on that and to kind of make sure that all those uneconomical plants get shut down.
The third is this evolution will also help our consuming industry like a solar in India to kind of a opportunity of expanding their capacity. So all these put together will definitely help we as a producer.
Unidentified Participant
And you know, you mentioned an important point that just in terms of pricing, you know, we are probably at the bottom of the cycle because at these prices manufacturing may become uneconomical. In several countries. Do you see generally speaking, I mean apart from China, in Europe or in other parts of the world, any capacity shutting down because of the pricing that’s prevailing today?
R S Jalan
Yes, I think in the Europe a couple of points. Plant has been closed in the, in the 25 and if the situation continues this way, probably the most acceleration of this would happen.
Unidentified Participant
Any, any figure you can put on what would be the capacity of the plant shut down?
R S Jalan
I’ll just give you one number. Yeah, I think in, in, in UK the one plant which was around 400,000 closed in the 25th of January 25th and EU Poland there was a around 600,000 tons of the plant which was closed in July 25th.
Unidentified Participant
Got it. And just in terms of countries that are potentially partnering with India in terms of trade, so obviously there’s eu, but luckily Iran and Turkey are not part of eu, neither Russia. But say the US were to do any sort of treaty with India. Is any chance of material getting exported from US to India soda ash or is it just logistically too far.
R S Jalan
See from us? In any case, the products are getting shipped to India historically last couple of years. However, if you look at in terms of the cost competitiveness, they will be making money only when they supply to the market which are closer to them like South America. From that perspective, okay. If they have a surplus quantity, obviously they have to sell somewhere and India will become a kind of a market for them. I don’t think because of the treaty there was some kind of a change should happen in this, in the supply situation. Like you very rightly said, from the factory to the, from the location where they produce the sodas to India.
The cost of supply chain is very, very high. It is almost around, if my understanding is correct, roughly around $120. Okay, $120. Which takes care of the plant to the port and port to the, to the Southeast Asian market, including India.
Unidentified Participant
Got it. And last question, just in terms of the green field. So I know you did express that there are challenges in land acquisition. How does this delay the process of commencement? You know, what was our original timeline versus what would be the revised timeline for the greenfield expansion for phase one?
R S Jalan
You are 100% right. Actually what we originally thought of that has not happened and that is not likely to happen. As per the original timeline, the moment we get all these clearances, it will take around two and a half to three years of time to complete. And honestly at this point of time I am not very clear when this approval will take place. But still, what we believe is that by 2030 we will be in a position to commission both the leg if the situation demands. That means the phase one and phase two. Maybe at the time, depending upon the demand supply situation, we can take a call.
Should we go for phase one or should you go the phase? Both the phase together. But we are still reasonably confident that by 2030 we will be able to complete both the bigger. Both these projects, even if I take together also will take around three years of time.
Unidentified Participant
Thank you. Thank you so much and good luck for Q.
R S Jalan
Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Arthur from ICICI Prudential Mutual Funds. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah. Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. So like you mentioned, of course China natural is one where expansion is likely to happen over the next few years. Any other geographies like us where you are hearing that capacity is likely to come on the natural side. That is number one. And secondly, after this, you know, consolidation of Genesis VSODA in US any change in trade flow or dynamics you are witnessing in that market.
R S Jalan
See very valid question first and foremost. Yes, US has announced in the past that they will be adding another 5 million tonnes. But recently they have announced that they will not do this till 2030 when the situation improves. So obviously the project will get delayed. And in terms of this consolidation which has happened, I personally believe that it will not should not have any impact to the Indian market because overall their economy will kind of a situation will make them to sell to the remunerative market which are more of a what you call Southeast Asia or probably the Europe as well as the South American market.
But yes, this volume which is coming at this point over time until the demand situation improves in the Europe or in the in the South American market, probably this import to India will continue.
Raman Chopra
Sure. In this one last question on you know the Chinese material which has started to come like based on your best assumptions, you think the material coming from Chinese through this? Maybe. I’m assuming it comes from the synthetic plants. Would they be making cash losses by selling in India or do you think this will be breakeven or making money. When they sell it to you see. As per our understanding and again this number cannot be verified. They are making not only on the supply which they are making into India, they are making losses even into the into the supply to the other part of the world, Southeast Asian and other market as well as because in the synthetic side the costs cannot be matched with the current prices. What they have.
Unidentified Participant
Got it sir. Thanks. Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our Next question comes from the line of Ansh Khimawat from Capital One. Please go ahead. Your line has been unmuted. Please go ahead with your question.
Unidentified Participant
Hello, can you hear me, sir? Hello?
R S Jalan
Yes, I can hear you.
Unidentified Participant
So my question is regarding the bromine capacity. So earlier you had guided that we would be doing margins around 40% which will be much better than what the competition is doing. Is it mainly because of the backward integration or is there any technological progress also to it? So I just want to understand how we calculating that 40%.
R S Jalan
See, basically answer. This new bromine project which we have added is added into the salt field which we are already operating. And therefore for us the cost will be only some power cost and some operating cost because the water flow, whatever we are taking from the sea will pass through the bromine project and that water will get used for the salt production. So salt production continues only we are taking out the bromine out of that water. And that will help us to kind of not having any cost relating to the other cost. And therefore our margin will be better in this project.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, and what kind of derivatives will be targeting in this area would be going for zinc or what kind of derivatives will be targeting here for the bromine?
R S Jalan
At this point of the time, we are not talking about the derivative because we have a small capacity. And this plan which I am talking about is only selling the bromine per pure. But yes, we are exploring the possibilities of in the future how can we go to the derivative side. But still we are not finalize any plan on that.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, and you had mentioned in your presentation that we would be targeting a 10,000 ton in the phase two. So any color as to when will that phase start?
R S Jalan
No, we have got the land by the government and some formula needs to be completed in that. But that will take at least four years from now, kind of a when the bromine new project will start getting a production out of that because we have to develop the soil field there. And after the soles are developed along with that, we have to put the bromine project and that will take three to four years of time. Okay, so is it a fair assumption.
Unidentified Participant
To make that we’ll be selling bromine to the conventional players in India only today or would we be.
R S Jalan
Mostly at this point of the time, our target is only the domestic market because the volumes are not very significant.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Okay, sir. All right. Thank you for taking my questions.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sourav Jain from hsbc. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Thank you for the opportunity. Most of my questions have been answered. Just some data points. What could be the decline in soda ash prices in this quarter and what would be your confidence or expectations around stabilization of soda ash prices at these levels? Question number one.
R S Jalan
Yeah, so basically as I said at this point of time the price in this quarter will be slightly lower than the average of last nine months. However, in terms of the confidence, very difficult to say whether this price will stay on this level or not. But like I said, the way we are seeing the global cost structure and things like that, we see that reasonably that okay, in the next few quarters the numbers would be on. This number should be kind of a rock bottom. But whether some drop will happen from there or not at this point of time, very difficult to say on it on a realistic basis.
Unidentified Participant
And how much was the decline in the third quarter?
R S Jalan
Third quarter the decline was approximately around. Approximately around 3%. 3%. Okay, thanks.
Unidentified Participant
Secondly, when you talk about the imports coming from China what could be China’s overall share in Indian imports and what price are they selling that product into the country?
R S Jalan
First and foremost China has a large capacity and this person, the volume which is coming is insignificant even with percentage. I can’t tell you whether it’s a 0.01% or 0.02% kind of a number but the numbers are very small at this point of time. Number two, in terms of the pricing, it’s a very dynamic pricing and depending upon the consumer, depending upon the volume they are negotiating the price and but in any case, whatever price we are selling I think they are closer to the competition only.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, sure. That’s all I wanted to understand. Thank you so much and all the best.
R S Jalan
Thank you.
Raman Chopra
Thank you.
operator
Please go ahead. Our next question comes from the line of Saket Kapoor from Kapoor and company. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. Thank you sir. Firstly, on the capex front, I think so. Ramansa, you mentioned about 200 some odd crores total spend for 9 months. Can you provide the breakup for the same? Where has the capex being spent?
R S Jalan
See Saket, primarily this expenditure has been done only on the two project. One is the bromine as well as the vacuum salt. Yes, of course. Some of the. Some of the capital is also spent on the regular. On the plant which is our existing plant. And this is kind of a regular project which you do every year.
Unidentified Participant
Okay.
R S Jalan
And sir, since you have just articulated on the fact that we might be delaying or rather 2030 is the long stop date for commissioning what would be then the program from us on spending on the greenfield project for the coming next year and I think sir we also outlined a 50 crore capex for a new office. Where are we sir in terms of that how much have we spent and when will be we’re doing the needful.
Unidentified Participant
Sake in terms of the greenfield as I mentioned to you the zero date we don’t know right now and therefore it is very difficult to say that what will be the expenditure next year Once the zero date start then only we’ll be able to plan what will be the capex requirement for for phase one year or year immediate one year. In terms of the office in Ahmedabad most of the payment has already been made and I think the handover of that office should happen in another six months time and once that happened then probably we will move our office from Ahmedabad from the current location to the new location.
Okay sir we have also seen that.
R S Jalan
There is capacity addition from the other player domestically so taking that into foray and the the duty benefits not being implemented how do you see the domestic market behaving? And since we have taken the this shutdown and now we are up and upstream what has been our utilization levels for the nine months?
Raman Chopra
See Saketi in terms of the utilization barring this annual shutdown our utilization has always been 95% plus number one number two in terms of the new capacity coming in and the demand supply it all the three factors which needs to be taken into account. One is the Indian demand growth is good. Second is import import has increased and therefore this demand supply situation rebalancing is happening. Hopefully in 2627 probably will be a better scenario should emerge.
Unidentified Participant
And lastly sir there was one Corindum notification also from the Director of Trade and the one which have recommended this anti dumping duty on the 4th of November wherein they have highlighted about some error in mentioning the amount per dollar duty that was envisaged from the import from Turkey, Russia, USA and Iran that is dated 4th number so does the reference date of the notification of implementation and the therefore the expiry of the same Also change or 29th September is the date that should be as 00 date.
R S Jalan
No 29th September remains as a zero date.
Unidentified Participant
Okay sir. Right sir. Thank you sir and thank you for interacting and all the best to the team.
R S Jalan
Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next follow up question is from the line of Adity Ketan from Smith Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah, thank you sir. For the follow up sir onto the demand certainty Any sort of a number or any sort of a clue you have Got like so demand is at the bottom and you have repeatedly mentioned that prices have also started to bottom out. Is it backed by some assumptions considering even China have started now exporting so to the global markets and we are India is not importing much but there could be a thing when in China starts to import much in India. So what is the assumption behind we are taking that prices have bottomed out?
R S Jalan
See Aditya, there are two things. One first your question was on the demand side. See as I said normal demand in the Indian typical industry like your detergents and the chemicals and the normal glass, flat glass they are on a range of around 4 to 5%. Add on to that is the solar glass which I just explained that there is a robust demand likely to happen because of the new capacity gated. Our assumption is the next year the demand growth would be around 6% 5 and a half percent to 6% should happen and this will create the additional demand of something around 2.5 lakh to 3 lakh in terms of our assumptions of the prices bottom out.
As I mentioned in my another lot of questions the way the cost structure which we are seeing globally either in the natural soda or in terms of your synthetic soda either in China or other part of the world Second this evolution of Chinese because China is at more than 50% of the capacity the way that China is evolving evolving their strategy of profitable growth or profitable business I think these are the assumptions which we are assuming that should be kind of a giving us a kind of that assessment. However as I mentioned in my earlier call it is an assumption we don’t know how the situation will come out and this is all we have to wait and watch but in the longer term surely I’m reasonably confident maybe one or two quarter can be situation could be slightly more than worse than what it is today but in the longer term economics will play.
Unidentified Participant
Okay sir second question is I think sir in the month of January this month only so China has announced that they would be abolishing the export rates for the PV photo. PV photovoltaic glass. Sir, is there any assumption like with this create a short term run in prices of soda ash. Because when I calculated there could be an incremental demand of 1 to 2 lakh ton in China but you think like this could be a material booster or it could be only a near term like support to the prices and thereafter post April 26th again the prices could be start to bottom out, start to go down.
R S Jalan
Sorry, I don’t know Aditya I will be very Difficult to kind of assess on that. Like I said, my understanding is evolution because ultimately this evolution is the main theme which China is following. And this would definitely have a medium term, kind of a benefit to the entire industries and more particularly the chemical industries. And as per my understanding, chemical pricing of the many part of the globe, even including in China, has gone up. How that will sustain, very difficult at this point of time to kind of comment on that.
Unidentified Participant
And just similar question. Suppose if India also started to reduce the export rebates which we are giving on photovoltaic glass. You think like in the longer term this could be a bigger problem for the soda industries as we would not be able to export much of photovoltaic glass and consequently higher production of soda as would keep higher inventories in the pipeline. Is this a bigger risk which we can foresee in the longer term?
R S Jalan
At least not for my understanding. First and foremost, I don’t think there is a kind of very significant export incentive has been given to that, but we need to check that.
Unidentified Participant
Thank you, sir.
operator
Thank you ladies and gentlemen. That was the last question for today. I would now like to hand the conference over to management for closing comments.
R S Jalan
Thank you. Thank you everyone for participating and asking the questions. As I have been always saying, as a management, our responsibility is to make sure that we deliver the best result in the current environment or any environment. And we make the business more sustainable, more cost efficient and more sustainable. And this journey we have been doing and will continue to do that. We will definitely capitalize on when the market recovery takes place and we will have that big advantage out of that. Thank you for your support and your confidence on the management and we will continue to deliver on your confidence.
Thank you very much.
operator
Thank you. On behalf of MK Global Financial Services limited That concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. And you may now disconnect your lines.