Asian Paints Limited Q3 FY23 Earnings Conference Call Insights

Key highlights from Asian Paints Limited (ASIANPAINT) Q3 FY23 Earnings Concall

Management Update:

• [00:01:31] ASIANPAINTS said the overall volumes were a little muted at a value growth of about 1%, driven by hefty price increases in Nov. and Dec. 2022 and prolonged monsoon.

• [00:06:59] ASIANPAINT also said that the projects business has been very strong and is continuing to grow higher than the retail business.

Q&A Highlights:

• [00:29:14] Abneesh Roy of Nuvama enquired about the capacity and demand in paints, how ASIANPAINT is seeing the market going forward with other paint and non-paint players adding capacity. Amit Syngle MD said the company‘s capex announcement is not equivalent to sales. The company’s capacity expansion is in line with its growth pattern.

• [00:31:52] Abneesh Roy from Nuvama also asked about the demand being volatile in 3Q23 and if it expects a double digit growth in 4Q23. Amit Syngle MD replied that volatility was due to price increases and extended monsoons. ASIANPAINTs added it’s optimistic about volumes for 4Q23.

• [00:36:00] Avi Mehta of Macquarie asked about the sequential EBITDA margin expansion in 4Q23, if ASIANPAINT is looking at a 20% plus EBITDA margin going forward. Amit Syngle MD answered that the company would stay in the band of 17-20%. However, the company expects the margins to go up.

• [00:40:37] Jaykumar Doshi from Kotak Securities asked about the extent of GM improvement from 39% odd levels for India business if RM prices stabilize at current levels. Amit Syngle MD replied that the company is still assessing the exact deflation for 4Q. It all depends on how 4Q augurs from the point of total RM softening in terms of what’s seen. There might be marginal increase in GM from existing level.

• [00:41:02] Jaykumar Doshi from Kotak Securities also asked at what point ASIANPAINT would consider passing on some benefit to customers in the form of end product price reductions. Amit Syngle MD clarified that price corrections will be taken when the company is clear of some cost reductions happening in 4Q and it’s there to stay.

• [00:43:00] Jaykumar Doshi from Kotak Securities enquired about the 50% increase in capacity expansion, if it’s like for like. Amit Syngle MD clarified it’s the in-house capacity that it’s increasing and it spans across various product range. The outsourced manufacturing is almost equal to about 15-16 lakh KL and that’s not going as high as in-house capacity.

• [00:47:45] Shirish Pardeshi with Centrum enquired about the water-based capacity outlook over the next 8-12 months. Amit Syngle MD answered that the company is going from 17 lakh KL to 22.7 lakh KL, about a 5 lakh KL jump. ASIANPAINT added that this jump will happen in the next 2-2.5 years.

• [00:52:26] Manoj Menon at ICICI Securities queried about, attrition, mainly in the middle and above levels. Amit Syngle MD said that attrition rates have not gone up, though in some cadres it might have gone up little bit. But in the top and middle management, attrition is in line with what’s been in the last 7-8 years.

• [00:55:08] Tejas Shah of Spark Capital enquired about the current contribution from the project business. Amit Syngle MD answered that the business has pegged at about 15-20% of the total business. It varies depending on the panning out of the retail and project growth rate. On overall returns, it’s more competitive and slightly lower than the retail business.

• [01:00:59] Mihir Shah from Nomura asked about the demand environment in the near to medium term. Amit Syngle MD answered that overall ASIANPAINT is optimistic about the coming quarter. However, there could be some slowdown and the growth seen in last 2 years might start to come down in paints.

• [01:03:23] Mihir Shah from Nomura asked if the mix impact for 3Q will continue to stay in the 12-14% range or reduce back to the negative 5% levels of previous years. Amit Syngle MD said that going forward, the mix of products sold will improve. ASIANPAINT expects a larger focus on high end premium luxury products, which should result in a gap of 4-6% between volume and value.

• [01:05:15] Mihir Shah from Nomura also asked about moderation in other expenses, if it’s attributed to lower ad spends. Amit Syngle MD answered that the company doesn’t expect to see any large changes in its ad, marketing, employee spend or general overhead expenses as a result of the lower volumes. The capex funding is coming from reserves and should not affect any overhead costs.