Asian Paints Limited (NSE: ASIANPAINT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call dated Feb. 04, 2025
Corporate Participants:
Sunila Martis — Head of Investor Relations
Amit Syngle — Chief Executive Officer
Parag Rane — Assistant Vice President of Finance
Analysts:
Avi Mehta — Analyst
Tejas Shah — Analyst
Manoj Menon — Analyst
Aditya Bhartia — Analyst
Mihir Shah — Analyst
Amit Sachdeva — Analyst
Jaykumar Doshi — Analyst
Sheela Rathi — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Asian Paints Earnings Conference Call for the Third Quarter of FY ’25 Ended December 31st, 2024. [Operator Instructions] Please note this conference is being recorded.
I now hand over the conference to Ms. Sunila Martis, Head-Investor Relations. Thank you, and over to you, ma’am.
Sunila Martis — Head of Investor Relations
Good evening, all of you, and thank you so much for joining us today to discuss Asian Paints Q3 FY ’25 Results. I’m Sunila Martis from the Investor Relations team. And I have with us today our management team. We have Mr. Amit Syngle, CEO and MD; we have Mr. R.J. Jeyamurugan, our CFO and Company Secretary; and we have Mr. Parag Rane, AVP Finance.
I would now like to invite Amit to give his opening comments.
Amit Syngle — Chief Executive Officer
Good evening, everyone, and welcome to the investor conference for quarter three. I will take you through some of the results and the overall numbers in terms of how they look at the end of this quarter. Delivering joy since 1942, I think that has been the core value. We exist to beautify, preserve, transform all spaces and objects, bringing happiness to the world. And that is something which we continue doing over a period of time.
When you look at the overall numbers for quarter three, it has been a weak demand period. The overall consumer sentiments have been muted as we are seeing across a lot of industries to that extent, and that is something which basically is something true for the paint industry as well. This has really impacted the overall volumes, which we have seen. And we have seen, coupled with this, also some amount of down trading, which is happening, which has really impacted the overall value delivery in terms of what has happened this quarter.
Overall, if you look at from a point of view of volume growth, we’ve registered about a 1.6% volume growth this quarter, but the comparative value growth has been on a decline, it is minus 7.8% in terms of what we see as the value in the quarter. In both these cases, we see the CAGRs on the volume numbers are still double-digit in terms of what we see over a five year period, on a value, it is about 9.6%.
Same numbers, if you were to see over a nine month period, the volume growth is closer to about 2.8%, and the comparative value growth is minus 5.8% in terms of what we see. And in this case, also, if you see the CAGR numbers over five years are double-digit in terms of what we are still maintaining in terms of what we’ve been able to deliver. So overall, a muted quarter in terms of what we see, and it’s very clear that the overall industry seems to be on a little bit of a muted trend in terms of what we have seen in terms of the environment.
When we look at the whole area of industrial as well, so the total Decorative Plus Industrial business overall combined, the performance gets a slightly better thing given the fact that industrial segment has done slightly better as compared to the retail segment overall as we see the retail decorative sector. When we look at the volume growth, so we are at about 1.7% in terms of the overall volume growth. And in terms of value from a 7.5%, it comes to about minus 6.6% here. The CAGR numbers remain double-digit in terms of what we are seeing here. On a nine monthly level, the volume goes up to about 3% and the value is about minus 4.8%.
So this is something which we would actually see is the actual coatings representative number for the quarter in terms of what we see, which is decorative plus industrial in terms of what we are saying. So net-net, the Industrial business has been much better in terms of overall, whether it is from a point of view of Auto, whether it is from the point of view of Protective Paints and so on and so forth.
Overall, this is a slide which we have been sharing with you over a period of time, which shows how we have been proceeding on the quarter-to-quarter kind of a trajectory on a long-term volume growth, which is there. This — the double-digit volume growth is still intact. If you notice in quarter two, it had come down a little, it has gone up now in quarter three at about 12.1% in terms of CAGR. So the volume story is something which we are still seeing in terms of the CAGR numbers. So that is something which possibly we are still maintaining as we look at from the point of view of the Decorative business.
Some of the key factors which we have seen for the quarter three. As I said, the overall demand was impacted in this quarter. And first of all, we saw a weak festive demand. This time, we had a shorter Diwali as compared to a larger Diwali. So I think October was effective in a big way to that extent. Coupled with that, what we saw was urban centers continued to be showing a slow growth to that extent. Overall, all the seasonal markets, given the fact that they are impacted by the festive season, I think have grown on a slightly slower side overall to that extent, which has the impact of October, which has come in to that extent.
From a point of view of distribution, there is continued expansion here. We continue to expand more retail points in the form of newer towns, suburbs in terms of what are kind of happening across India. We have now about 1.69 lakh retail counters across the country to that extent, and that is something which is a constant endeavor in terms of what we see that we are available to every consumer point across the country as we kind of go ahead.
Our painting service, which is a beautiful home painting service, which is there, has seen sustained acceptance and growing quite well. It is, I think, a service which is possibly which we see is the biggest in the world today in terms of what we are offering with very, very strong NPS scores and referrals, which kind of come from this. So I think it’s a service which now is spreading across more than 650 towns across the country and doing quite well.
Overall, from the point of view of the B2B business has done quite well, the projects and institution business overall picked up in quarter three as compared to quarter two. We saw some traction happening in terms of the government spending also coming live. And as we see it, this will go further. And both the factories and the builder segment also did well. So I think the overall B2B segment is something which is definitely picking up, which is a positive sign in terms of going forward.
Overall, our innovation movement continued, which is all about newer products and a lot of new products happening in the premium and the luxury space in terms of where our endeavor is to that extent to keep them — keep the market excited. The new products contributed to about 12% of the overall revenues in quarter three. We’ve been speaking about our backward integration projects. The VAM-VAE project, which is coming up at Dahej and the White Cement, which is coming at Fujairah Dubai, both are on track, and that is something which possibly will give us very, very strong value as we kind of go ahead at the time of implementation of these projects.
So that’s the overall in terms of various drivers in terms of what we see. If you look at some of the new products I spoke of, we are talking of this absolutely new and strong product, which is coming first time possibly in a world in terms of what we are launching. This is Apex Ultima Suprema Aero Clean. This is a unique product, which is basically is a champion for sustainability in terms of going forward.
It has got a photocatalytic technology, which neutralizes pollutants like SOx/NOx, which are there in the environment to that extent, and therefore, brings them down in terms of overall environment and makes the environment great to that extent. It is also powered by a very, very good resistance to dust and overall available in white and some shades in terms of what we launched. And so it’s absolutely the top end of technology in terms of what we are launching for the very first time today. And I think this is something which is going to be very strong from the point of view of B2B business going forward.
The other area which we have been continuously working is that given the fact that today, the regional fervor is coming up very, very strongly and to kind of pick up the consumer sentiment around the region, we’ve been kind of looking at innovation in terms of our packs, and these are the regional packs, which we have done, which are packs, which are interactive packs where the customer by scanning the QR code can look at experiencing about the culture of the region and so on and so forth. And this is something which have been very, very popular in terms of how people have looked at in terms of creating an excitement for them.
We’ve also looked at a stronger packaging change, which is far more international, contemporary in terms of the overall looks which comes in, along with a very, very strong ingredient story, which comes in. So we’ve amped up the overall quality and the overall way the premiumness of the packs, everything looks. So I think this is something which has been accepted well by the market, and it is something giving us a very, very strong imagery in terms of the market the way it comes in. This is the same packaging change, and this has been done across the products. So you can see for yourself, the packaging is fairly contemporary in terms of the way it looks.
We’ve also launched the future of waterproofing as we call it. It is something which is a polyurethane dispersion-based paint, which is a single component paint, which is talking of almost about 25 years of warranty, which is unheard of in terms of this is the best-in-class kind of crack bridging ability and so on and so forth. So I think, again, if you notice, the trend is very clear that we want to kind of look at the premium in the luxury segment and kind of look at introducing newer products here, which can be very value-adding to the consumer and are very, very strong from a point of view of sustainability and environment protection as we kind of look at it.
We’ve launched a new campaign. We had really Ultima Protek, which is with Graphene, which is the new ingredient, which we have kind of looked at reinforcing the whole durability of the product, giving it a 12 years warranty, a new commercial, which we launched called the Safe House, and this is something which we have launched across the markets, and this is something which is doing very well, amping up the Ultima story of Protek very, very strongly in terms of the way it comes.
The whole area of textures, which is a strength at Asian Paints, which possibly no one else has is something which we have really amped up again and here has been a strong effort to kind of really develop something which is unique, which possibly the world has not seen. And this is something which we are really looking at. It really kind of goes for the Bangalore segments, even for a lot of second homes in terms of what people are looking at and in terms of some form of even high-rise buildings overall. So I think, again, a revolutionary area in terms of influencing the market with more and more textures in the form of product Apex, which is offering in terms of taking it ahead.
We continue to kind of really propagate the brand, the Har Ghar Kuch Kehta as a strong connect — emotional connect with the consumer, and that is something which we propagate strongly. And this is the emotional side of it very strongly where we have Season 8 of where the heart is along with some popular celebrities who have done up their homes, and we have done a full home over — makeover for them in terms of how it stands. And this has been a very, very strong area in terms of how we can really look at reaching out to consumers and really link the emotional connect of Har Ghar with them in a very strong manner.
So that’s something which we have been doing strongly. Our home decor survey continues as we see it happening across the various categories. We are, as we have been saying, number one integrated home decor player, 64 beautiful home stores across the country in terms of what is there, number one in decorative lighting, number two in fabric and furnishing, overall. And in terms of both wallpapers and other collaborations which we have with Sabyasachi, Sarita Handa, Jaipur Rugs, I think are going strong from that point of view, and they contribute to about 4.5% of the decorative revenue to that extent.
So I think this has been strong, the whole imperative of moving from a share of surface to a share of space within the home so that we are able to connect with the customer over the decor life cycle very strongly. When we look at this, we have opened some more stores here, which are happened. We have the — a signature store, which has come in Mumbai in Borivali, which is almost about 14,000 square feet in terms of size and something which is very strong from a point of view of offering decor under one roof strongly, some images of it what you can see.
And then we also launched a store in Surat which is there, which is another 13,000 square feet store, again, basically showing us everything in terms of what can be done within a home in a very strong manner. So I think this is something which is really kind of taking the decor route strongly across and kind of really appropriating beautiful homes in a strong way as we kind of go ahead.
When we look at another thing, this whole concept of Insta is something which is very big. People are looking at something which can be done in a jiffy. We’ve launched this product called the Nilaya WALL W.R.A.P, which is called Nilaya Play and Nilaya Once. This is a wonder product in terms of what we are introducing, which is absolutely green with no VOC and it doesn’t consume any water also at all to that extent.
And this is something which we are looking at having a proposition that you can actually do a two BHK house in three days in terms of what we are talking of in terms of going forward. So a new revolutionary technology in terms of what we are bringing, again, something at the top end, which we know is something very clear in terms of the direction, in terms of what we are moving in terms of really appropriating in a strong manner.
When we look at the home decor, obviously, while all the categories are growing, this year, the environment has kind of literally subdued the overall growth in terms of what we were seeing. We have in quarter three, grown in kitchen at about 3%, but at a nine monthly level, we are at about a 5% level. And it too with the bath area as well in terms of the growths. So single-digit growths happening here.
On White Teak and Weatherseal, again, on a nine monthly level, we see about a 1% growth here. It has been slightly — the consumption has been slightly muted again, given the overall environment, which is there to that extent. But this is something we are confident should kind of pick up as we go forward. White Teak has been impacted a little bit by some of the BIS challenges in terms of what we have seen, but I — we hope that this is something which recovers as we kind of enter quarter four.
If you look at the AP global markets, these are the representation across the world in terms of the places where we are operating. And from here, we also export to certain other countries overall. When we look at this performance, overall, the performance has been much better than quarter two in terms of what we see. Overall, in INR terms, we have grown at about 5% at an overall global level and a strong 17% in constant currency terms in terms of what we have been able to deliver.
If we look at from the point of view of various regions, the Middle East region has done spectacularly well at a 20% growth in terms of quarter three. Similarly, Asia has done on the back of Lanka and Nepal doing to some extent well. And I think Africa and South Pacific are the areas which have been suffering given the fact that there is some turmoil, which is happening in Africa, given the depreciation of currency and so on and so forth, which is there.
However, when we look at from the point of view of profitability, I think quarter three, we have had a 4% growth overall. However, the nine month picture is definitely on a lower side in terms of what we see in terms of the profitability, which is there. Just to remind you that there is definitely an impact of the currency devaluation in Egypt and Ethiopia in terms of what we see. But both the Middle East area as well as I think the area of Asia, both basically are still doing good from a point of view of overall profitability in terms of what we see.
So that’s on the global markets in terms of what you see. When you come to the industrial business, we have two joint ventures. As you know, one is the Auto OE joint venture, which is called the PPGAP, which is there, which is about auto refinishes and general industrial business. Here, as I said, the market has been better despite the auto builds coming down to some extent, but we have grown at about 6% here to that extent.
So this has been a good quarter overall in a nine monthly level, we are growing at 7%. But I think the best which has happened is the profitability is something which is doing extremely good. PBT margins are at about all-time high of about 22% here in terms of the Auto OE business, which is what we are seeing in this overall segment.
When we look at the second business in industrial, which is about General Industrial business, which we do more about protective and powder coatings, APPPG, this has been a subdued quarter here. After a very long time, we’ve seen very, very good growth in this APPPG for the last about three years in continuous succession to that extent. This year, it has been at base this quarter overall, although at a nine monthly level, it is at about 2% growth. And profits have been a little bit challenging here given the fact that there has been a tight pricing environment here to that extent. And therefore, the overall PBT margin is about 8.4% versus about 11.5% of last year to that extent. So overall, Industrial has done much better as compared to the decorative architectural business in terms of what we see.
Just to give you an idea in terms of how the overall gross margins have been moving and how are the material price deflation is happening. The gross margins have improved sequentially, if you see from 41.1% to about 43.2% overall. So that’s something which is strong, which has happened in terms of the sequential movement in terms of what we see of the overall margins. Although from a year-on-year perspective, it has moved from 44.2% to about 43.2% to that extent. This quarter, we have seen a price deflation. And as you’re aware, we had announced a price increase in quarter two of about 1.2%, and it has a carryover effect of about 0.4% in quarter three as well to that extent. So I think we have been strong with respect to overall the way we have been looking at prices to that extent, and that is something which is supporting the bottom line as well as we kind of look forward.
Overall, when we look at the stand-alone financials, overall, definitely, I think given the fact that the top line has been weak, overall, we see overall PBDIT kind of really affected and PBT and PAT also affected to that extent. However, as I said, gross margins have been up sequentially and 100 bps point decline over the Q3 of last year. PBDIT margins have improved from the last quarter by almost about 400 bps points. However, if you look at from the comparative quarter of last year, it is about 340 bps points lower to that extent, but it’s in a good range in terms of what we have got the PBDIT margins.
The nine month PBDIT margins are at about 19.2%, about 430 bps points lower than comparative last year quarter to that extent overall. So that’s overall picture in terms of what we see amongst — at an overall stand-alone level. When we go to consolidated financials, the picture is a little bit similar. You have a top line, which is at about minus 6% in terms of what we see overall at a quarter three level and gross margins at about 42.3% and a PBDIT margin of about 19.2% to that extent.
On a nine monthly level, this number goes to about minus 5% on a top line, and it goes to about almost like 17.9% on a PBDIT margin overall to that extent. So I think these are the overall financials in terms of how it kind of looks from a top line and a bottom line perspective in terms of this thing, largely affected from the top line being subdued this quarter.
When it comes to looking at the outlook, obviously, I think the demand conditions have been challenging in this quarter, and it was impacted even more given the fact that the festival season was much smaller to that extent. As we go forward, we definitely see that the stress in terms of the urban areas will continue. They might — we are optimistic about some of the rural towns batting to that extent. So therefore, our overall intention is that it is a little bit of a cautious optimistic approach in terms of what we see as a recovery in terms of the next couple of quarters to that extent.
Overall, when we look at from a point of view of spending, government spending would be strong. And therefore, as I said, B2B business as well as the rural business should be, I think, strong going forward. I think Industrial business also should be strong as we look at going forward. We are looking at really leveraging the core strength of the brand in terms of going forward, looking at a series of marketing forays in terms of what we want to kind of do so that the brand imagery, the whole mindshare is something which is strong, which kind of remains to that extent.
We are looking at scaling the Industrial business overall in terms of how it goes. And we see that some of the Asian geographies should kind of do well to kind of boost the international markets to that extent. So we are putting our focus in terms of both Asia and Middle East in terms of going forward. From a point of view of raw material prices, we see some softening to that extent. The buoyant dollar is something which is a concern. We are already seeing weakening in the rupee, and that is something which we will have to watch out and see in terms of how it pans out.
So that’s the overall outlook in terms of what we see for Q4. So that’s about for the overall this thing. Thank you so much.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] The first question is from Mr. Avi Mehta. Sir, I request you to unmute yourself before you proceed.
Avi Mehta
Hi, am I audible?
Amit Syngle
Yes, you are.
Avi Mehta
Sir, hi sir. Sir, wanted to just better understand your cautious optimism on near-term recovery. What is driving this? And more importantly, by when do you expect sales value to start moving to Y-o-Y growth rates versus the decline that we’ve seen for the last few quarters?
Amit Syngle
So overall, for quarter four, I think definitely, what we are saying is that the urban centers is appearing as a stress area for us in terms of looking at going. However, we see that rural demand should definitely be better in terms of how it kind of goes. And as I said, that we are also relying on the B2B business to kind of pick up to that extent as we kind of go ahead to that extent. Industrial should also be good. So we see that possibly, I think it would take at least two quarters in terms of at least where we see that possibly some of this area will be there. Obviously, we would look at getting stronger value growths possibly towards at least single-digits as we kind of go forward. But right now, we see a stress in terms of the two quarters as we go ahead.
Avi Mehta
Okay, sir. And second, sir, with input costs expected to remain benign and pricing largely through, would nine month performance be a good indicator of the likely EBITDA margin for FY ’25? And sorry, again, a follow-up with that. Is there any need to revisit our steady-state margin profile guidance of 18% to 22% now that we have more color on the new competition and how they are behaving? That’s it from my side.
Amit Syngle
So we have been strong in terms of maintaining the PBDIT focus in terms of going ahead. So we are very clear that we are not running after price strongly to that extent. We want to kind of really concentrate in terms of looking at some of the segments where we have a strong leverage in terms of going forward. And we would like to maintain our overall guidance of 18% to 20% as we go ahead.
Avi Mehta
Okay, sir. That’s all from my side. Thank you very much, sir.
Operator
Thank you for joining and stating your questions, Mr. Mehta. [Operator Instructions] Moving on to inviting the next participant Mr. Tejas Shah. Sir, I request you to unmute yourself before you proceed.
Tejas Shah
Yes. Thanks. Am I audible?
Amit Syngle
Yes, you are.
Tejas Shah
Yes. Hi, sir. Sir Tejas from Avendus Park. Sir, Tejas from Avendus Spark. Sir, just wanted to know you spoke at length about the demand scenario. Just wanted to know, are there any segments or geographies which are outperforming the broader trend?
Amit Syngle
So overall, as I said, in quarter three, we saw that all the seasonal geographies, especially geographies which are centered around the northern, central parts of the country, so on and so forth to that extent, I think to some extent, those geographies performed — underperformed overall to that extent, given the fact that October is a big month and the October definitely was much slower in terms of the overall demand in terms of what we could see, and it was also a shorter Diwali. So I think today, what we see is that some parts other than the seasonal markets across the country have been much better. And therefore, we see a clear differential in terms of growths, what we have seen in November and December as compared to October.
Tejas Shah
And sir, perhaps early in the quarter, but any sense you would have got from your feedback on the ground, on our market share position? Would we have protected it in most of the territories or gained or lost?
Amit Syngle
So overall, what we see, as I was speaking, I think the — at the industry level, we are saying the overall industry is definitely on a decline in terms of what we see from the point of view of consumer demand. I would say that the — at least the decorative industry is definitely ranging anywhere around minus 4%, minus 5% kind of a zone in terms of what we see. The industrial is still up in terms of the overall market. So I think the feel is very clear that given the large number of players, which we are there and a large number of players, there would be some shaving of shares here and there, which is there. But nothing which is very, very significant in terms of what we see to that extent happening with us.
Tejas Shah
And sir, last one, if I may. Your guidance on margins, 18% to 20%, looking at the tailwinds and headwinds, both in terms of what government has done on demand recovery and at the same time, you spoke about rupee depreciation and other headwinds which are there. Would you prefer to operate at 18% given if there’s a choice and revive demand? Or you will let it go as it comes, if we have to kind of go back to 20% in the near-term?
Amit Syngle
So I think currently, demand is just not a function of just simple pricing in terms of what we see. Demand is also a function in terms of the inherent consumption, which needs to kind of really look at. Ours is a category where people are able to postpone their spends to some time to that extent. So what we are seeing is that we would definitely like to overall spend monies in terms of really building the brand and looking at a strong mindshare, which is going to come about to that extent as we go forward.
We are working on a lot of initiatives so that we are able to kind of look at optimizing cost, recovering more cost internally so that we have more monies to spend in terms of going forward. So I think, as I said, going forward, we would still like to maintain our overall guidance between 18% to 20% to that extent. It’s very difficult to say that it should be only 18% or it should be only 20% to that extent.
Tejas Shah
Very clear, sir. Thanks and all the best for coming quarter.
Operator
Thank you, sir. Inviting the next participant, Mr. Manoj Menon. Sir, kindly unmute yourself before you proceed.
Manoj Menon
Hi, team. This is Manoj Menon from ICICI Securities. I don’t really have a question, but it’s more of a request for insights from the panel, Amit, Jeyamurugan, Parag and Sunila. Look, in your long careers, particularly in the paint industry, could you just look back in history and say that have you seen similar sort of, let’s say, stress in consumption, particularly for paints where it is generally assumed that given the repainting cycle, which has been reducing over the years, etc., there is certain predictability to the demand, whereas, let’s say, if I take a step back and go 24, 36 months back also, probably we didn’t see this sort of, let’s say, impact on paints, let’s say, demand was not necessarily is a base case for anyone, including analysts.
Excluding, let’s say, periods like the Lehman crisis or a demonetization or a COVID, probably these are all one-off events. Just want to understand from your understanding of the industry for the last 20, 30, 40 years, that what are those periods and then, let’s say, what are the specific activities, let’s say, which you as a market leader would have done? And also, if you could comment about anything which you are — which you can talk in a public domain on, let’s say, the actions or activities which you are undertaking currently as a 60% market leader, which you could do to actually drive demand? Thank you.
Amit Syngle
So overall, I think it’s a good question because when you go back almost two decades, three decades, we haven’t seen possibly a challenge like this in terms of what we are seeing in terms of demand. Possibly when you go to the era of 1997 or something, that is a time when we would have seen some kind of streaks of this kind of a market to that extent — overall to that extent. So it’s been definitely quite challenging in terms of the overall demand conditions in terms of what we are seeing.
But having said that, I think some of the areas which we have looked at basically churning up demand is the fact that we have looked at also areas which are unexplored to that extent. So one of the areas which we have looked is the bottom of the pyramid in terms of what we had spoken at the beginning of the year in terms of looking at introducing Neo, which was a new category by itself called the latex paint so that we could kind of get a lot of newer customers and they kind of come and get into the organized market for the first time to that extent, so which kind of really broadens the overall pie for everyone to that extent. And after us, we have seen some of the other players also trying to launch some similar products in that area.
So I think it kind of really largens the segment for everyone to that extent. Similarly, when we look at the whole segment of wood finishes, we have launched certain products like Glomax and some other polishes, which are there to that extent, which kind of enlarges the overall segment to that extent so that we get more players to kind of come in and start really utilizing organized brands in terms of enlargening the market to that extent.
The other area which we are looking at is how can we get people to paint much faster overall to that extent. And for that, we are looking at decor options, which are far stronger, far quicker in terms of doing, I just spoke about this whole area of Nilaya Play and Nilaya Once where you could possibly do your house in just three days so that the whole hassle-free kind of becomes as a very strong proposition for especially nuclear homes in terms of looking at what they could do in just two, three days so that the frequency of painting itself kind of can go up to that extent. It’s a long short in terms of doing it, but that is something which we are looking at in terms of bringing about.
The fourth area we are looking at bringing mechanization into painting in a very strong way. And as a leader, we have put almost 23 centers across the country where we are training a lot of painters and so on and so forth into mechanization so that their productivity goes up. Their painting time basically reduces the hassle-free in the market kind of comes in, which basically means that for consumers, it becomes an easier process to that extent in terms of going forward. So I think these are some of the measures in terms of what we have been taking. And I think the other clear measure is that keep the innovation index high in terms of what you’ve been able to do and keep on leveraging the brand from a point of view of really building the brand and building the mindshare as you go ahead.
Operator
Thank you for joining, sir. Inviting the next participant, Mr. Aditya Bhartia. Sir, I request you to unmute yourself before you proceed.
Aditya Bhartia
Hi, sir. This is Aditya Bhartia from Investec. My first question is that if we look at employee expenses and our overhead expenses this quarter, they haven’t really grown much on a year-on-year basis. On a sequential basis, there’s been a decline. Now in an environment wherein we are seeing competition intensifying, new players coming in, attrition for us has been going up a bit. How is it that we are able to control employee and opex costs? And what is going to be the strategy around this?
Amit Syngle
So as we look at it, definitely from a point of view of employee cost, as we had said that we had looked at possibly manning more people in the beginning so that we could kind of really cater to our network far more strongly to that extent. Post that, we have also taken steps in terms of how we can boost the productivity of the people much more to that extent so that, that is something which serves as a trigger for us so that we can get the best utilization as the best — maximum output in terms of those people. So I think one area which we are clearly looking is that in terms of going forward, how is it that basically we can utilize the number of people much better in terms of the overall productivity in terms of what is there.
The sales and distribution expenses have gone up overall in terms of what we see, given the intensity of competition, which is there in the market to that extent. And that is something which we are trying to see in terms of what way you could maximize on the stakeholders in terms of what is there so that we are able to give them a good value, which they can pass on to the customer as we look forward in terms of doing it.
At the same time, the other area which we are looking at is, looking at optimizing all the areas of cost which are there in the organization. So whether it is from a point of view of looking at overheads, which are related to possibly travel and other areas which are there, we are kind of looking at seeing how we can basically optimize the overall operating expenses so that we can really have a good leverage in terms of going forward to kind of look at it in coming times.
Aditya Bhartia
Sure, sir. And when you speak about 18% to 20% margin guidance, are we baking in some of these cost savings and therefore, thinking of slight reduction in — maybe in gross margins and some savings coming through from opex, which kind of offset each other and we get to 18% to 20% kind of margin?
Amit Syngle
Yes. So it is an overall cost model we’ll have to kind of look at. So it is — as I said, that is a far more holistic approach in terms of the cost which is being taken because you would like to kind of really spend the money in the right manner so that we are able to kind of also spend money in terms of initiating demand, looking at the right consumption, spending it in the right segments in terms of what we want to kind of do. So it’s a combination in terms of looking at optimization, some of the operating levers to that extent.
At the same time, looking at in terms of what way possibly we can look at the overall material costs, the overall formulation efficiencies, even in terms of the whole area of manufacturing excellence in terms of what we can bring. So that the whole — overall area of cost is something which gives us a leverage to put the monies in the right manner in terms of what we can do and still kind of really look at, to some extent, top line coming and maintaining the 18% to 20% kind of margin guidance.
Aditya Bhartia
Sure, sir. That’s helpful. My last question is on new latex paints.
Sunila Martis
Aditya, am I audible?
Amit Syngle
Aditya, can you hear?
Aditya Bhartia
Yes, yes, I can.
Parag Rane
Yes. Just to sort of add to what Amit said, I think a better way of looking at some of these expenses like employee costs and some of the discretionary spends is actually to look at the nine month sort of numbers rather than focusing on the quarter. So just wanted to place that with you.
Aditya Bhartia
Sure. Thanks. Also on Neo latex paints, if you could just give us some indication about how large the category is likely to have become for us and for the industry? And how do you see that shaping up going forward?
Amit Syngle
So I think the overall kind of potential in the category is much, much bigger. Almost the potential is more than 5 lakh kl in terms of the overall category as I see it. As we have kind of seen it, we are just scraping possibly at the moment, 7% to 9% of that overall pie at the moment to that extent, which is there. So I think the potential is still very, very huge in terms of what you can pick up and what you can get in. It is also a question of in terms of how much kind of a depth you are able to get, how much you are able to reach in T3, T4 cities, how much you are able to create awareness about that product, both at the consumer level as well as at the contractor painter level in terms of what it goes. So I think the potential it offers is fairly, fairly big in terms of the volumes it can garner.
Aditya Bhartia
Perfect, sir. That’s very helpful. Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you, sir. Up next we have a dial-in participant. Inviting Mr. Mihir Shah.
Mihir Shah
Hi, sir. Thank you for taking my question. I hope I’m audible and [Indecipherable].
Amit Syngle
Okay. Yes, you are.
Mihir Shah
[Technical Issues] on the demand environment, we understand the situation in urban demand. Can you share how rural is doing — how well is rural doing. Should one think that rural is growing much faster and urban is declining? So that’s the first question.
Amit Syngle
Sorry, if I get your question right, you are asking me how are the demand patterns looking in terms of going forward for rural?
Mihir Shah
Currently, can one assume that urban demand would have declined this quarter and it is expected to remain like that for some time, and rural is growing significantly faster. And any color on how Jan is shaping up, if you can just throw some insight on that?
Amit Syngle
So as I said very clearly, the urban centers, I think the demand has been slightly muted, whereas in terms of the rural, which we are seeing is demand has been much better in terms of the relative sense overall. We’ve also seen that the monsoons have been fairly good, which basically augurs well for quarter four and quarter one of next year to that extent. So I think we believe that the rural demand should accelerate further in terms of both quarter four and quarter one. And some of those things we are seeing in the January itself also happening to that extent. And possibly, I think the big area of surge, which should happen is looking at how the urban centers kind of start to pick up as we go forward to that extent.
Operator
Thank you for joining, sir. Inviting the next participant, Mr. Amit Sachdeva. Sir, kindly unmute yourself before you proceed.
Amit Sachdeva
Yes. Hi. Am I audible?
Amit Syngle
Yes, you are.
Amit Sachdeva
Yes, hi. Thank you so much for taking my question. Sir, one — I guess one question, and it’s a bit elusive one and it’s my attempt to just ask on the new competition, which has been there for a while now. Now my question is that after a long time, such competition has happened in the paints industry. And clearly, there is some response and counter response may have been. But my question is that what is your interpretation of how the new competition has positioned its product?
And what is the true value proposition thereafter to various stakeholders, whether it’s trade as well as customer and how you have responded to that? Now it’s a bit of vague, but I just want to understand because sometimes it’s a me-too product, it’s a price at discounts and this first way to look at it. But I think there is some value proposition, which is circulating in the industry to trade partners, to even painters and all those stakeholders. And what communication you have picked and what is your interpretation, what is going on, how you are responding with your own value proposition there? I don’t know whether it’s sort of not specific enough, but I just wanted your reaction to it.
Amit Syngle
No, it’s okay. So first of all, as we see it, there have been literally competitions earlier also. In fact, we have had some players five years back who had launched to that extent. And now, obviously, there has been new competition this year in terms of what we are seeing. Frankly, if you look at from the point of view of the first half, we have not seen too much possibly numbers which would have kind of come out to that extent, although I think the spread across the country is something which they are taking a scale in terms of looking at.
As a — from a point of view of overall products, they seem to have products at all price points in terms of what we see in the market. But at the moment, very difficult to say that if they have a proposition for the customer coming into that extent. And a lot of things, obviously, at the moment are looking at price and discounting led in terms of what we see in the market to that extent as we see it.
So as I said, we’ve just seen possibly now three quarters to that extent. It’s too early to see in terms of seeing whether there’s a larger impact which is happening on the market because today, as I said, the market is pretty large in terms of what we see of INR80,000 crores and so. And I think we could kind of only say that someone is making an impact if you are talking of at least garnering 7%, 8% kind of a share out of that market in the first year. So I think to that extent, possibly, it remains to be seen in terms of how well possibly will they do. I think it’s too really early to kind of really comment.
Amit Sachdeva
Got it. Sir, where I’m coming from is, obviously, somebody who comes new wants to tell a consumer or trade partners that I’m special. I’m different. I’m distinctive. I have better value. And that narrative is set using quality or price curve. Price curve is not necessarily the right way to position a product that I’m cheaper. Also, people tend to communicate through that we are superior quality and XYZ attribute and things like that, they might be using above-the-line spend such as keeping their like a unique salesperson on the ground with large dealers. There could be several tactics somebody can employ.
So I’m just trying to sort of be very curious that has there any narrative you have picked, which sort of kind of think that there is something that you need to respond to or something like that? Because I would not probably assume that somebody is just using a cheaper card to sort of foot in the door in the market. My sense is the game would be slightly more than that. And if that is something that you’re picking up, especially above the line spends like that.
Amit Syngle
So overall, what we see is that I think there is definitely a lot of action with respect to, as I said, the competition reaching across a certain scale across the country, looking at possibly spending on above the line, below the line in terms of looking at it. But in terms of the overall product story, it remains to be seen that is there a real value proposition, which is coming out right now in terms of what they are specifically doing to that extent, because at the moment, in terms of — there is no uniqueness in terms of what we see, which is there from a point of view of either a product or a proposition in terms of what is there currently. But as I said, there are possibly early days, and we will have to see how it kind of really emerges.
Amit Sachdeva
Sure. I mean, thanks so much for that. And your conservatism when you go to the next year, you are not really want to sort of communicate that we’ll do a turn positive pricing growth, etc., although there’s a base that is very benign. So is it because of that, that you want to keep that in your hands still that if required, you need to respond? And is that what is built into your conservatism, even though theoretically, we can think of tax breaks are coming and this that is happening, one should feel more optimistic about it, but you are still keeping very cautious kind of pricing outlook. Is that what is inbuilt into it?
Amit Syngle
So I think the larger cautious optimism is based with respect to the consumer demand. We are not seeing very, very strong consumer demand flavors kind of coming in the market to that extent as we see, and it is not only in our industry, we see it possibly across industries. And if you look at particularly the construction business to that extent, the area of new homes coming at a larger mid, lower segment to that extent. I think all across in terms of what we are seeing is definitely there is a little bit of a muted demand, which is kind of coming in. And I think the whole kind of approach is based in terms of saying that unless the demand really comes back very, very strongly, there is only so much you can trigger in the environment as you kind of go ahead.
Amit Sachdeva
Okay, got it. Thank you so much, and thank you for taking my questions. Thanks a lot.
Operator
Thank you, sir. Inviting the next participant Mr. Jaykumar Doshi. Sir, kindly unmute yourself before you proceed.
Jaykumar Doshi
Hi, thanks for the opportunity. First one is just a clarification on the — your earlier response to Avi’s question. You indicated that you’re expecting stress to continue for at least another two quarters. Did you also indicate that revenue decline would continue for another two quarters and then maybe you move to a single-digit growth six months out? So I’m not sure whether you also indicated that value decline will continue for two quarters or you did not call that out.
Amit Syngle
See, overall, the attempt is very clearly that we should kind of really aim for single-digit volume growths in terms of going forward to that extent. And I think it all depends on the urban centers, the kind of demand which emerges in terms of how value would kind of really come about to that extent. But I think the attempt is very clearly that we have locked in about 1.6% quarter three overall. So going forward, we would like to kind of really look at single-digit volume growths definitely happening and look at a better product mix so that we can get to a decent value growth.
Jaykumar Doshi
Understood. Thank you. And on — second one on competitive pressure. Over the last six, nine months, do you think that now trade schemes margin — trade schemes, rebates, discounts have more or less stabilized? Or are you still seeing the increase in competitive pressure or more discounting or trade schemes from the new entrant?
Amit Syngle
So what we see is, I think it’s a dynamic game in terms of which is there, and it kind of varies from region-to-region, town-to-town kind of a thing. So I think in any marketing sales structure, there is never a stability in terms of what you find for any kind of sales discounting to that extent, it is something which is dynamic. And as we see it, I think the agility there would kind of still remain as we kind of go forward because it’s very difficult to predict in terms of what one company will look at in terms of energizing the market in a very different way to that extent.
So I think it’s very difficult to say that today, it has reached a stage of stability in terms of where it is to that extent because if you want to kind of really garner anything, you would not mind possibly putting in even more money in terms of looking at going because at this moment, possibly some of the players might not be worried about the bottom line.
Jaykumar Doshi
Understood. Thank you so much. That’s it from my side.
Operator
Thank you, sir. Inviting the next participant, Ms. Sheela Rathi. Ma’am, unmute yourself before you proceed.
Sheela Rathi
Hi, thanks for taking my question. This is Sheela Rathi from Morgan Stanley. Sir, I just had one question, which was with respect to your comment around the B2B business. I mean what kind of growth we are thinking of in this business? And is there a specific plan in terms of focus? And my question is more in context of where the trends could be over the next 12 months in this particular business? And what is the share of the B2B business now and where it could be?
Amit Syngle
So overall, going forward, we see strong trends coming in B2B because today, we see that there’s a lot of capex, which is coming into India, a lot of investment, which is happening. And therefore, I think factories is a very important segment in terms of how we are seeing in terms of coming up, and that is something which we are looking at. The second segment is government. I think that is also a strong segment in terms of what we are seeing where the government spendings are supposed to kind of now go up. This has — this year has been slightly lesser to that extent, given the fact that there was elections and it kind of really kicked off at a stage which we are seeing in quarter three to that extent. So I think that’s another segment which is going to be big.
Third, I think given the fact that today, hospitality is a big segment in terms of what we are looking in terms of going forward. So as we look at, I think our strategy is very clear. We want to kind of really concentrate with respect to some of these segments as part of the B2B business and look at even offering some kind of services, which are strong so that we are able to hold this business going forward in a very big way to that extent. Today, the segment would be somewhere in the range of about 16%, 17% contribution. And we would definitely like to see that given the growth trajectory here, we’ve grown at very good numbers this year in quarter two, and we would like to kind of have double-digit kind of growth numbers as far as the B2B business is concerned.
Sheela Rathi
Understood. Sir, one follow-up here. How is the competitive landscape in this particular segment?
Amit Syngle
So this segment, I think, has two aspects of it. One is an aspect which basically moves from a point of view of pricing and a credit game, which is largely the builder segment, which is there. And there’s another segment which is on technical specifications, which are there in terms of factories, government and so on and so forth to that extent. So I think that’s how basically these segments move to that extent. And therefore, I think in both the areas, we look at, one, in terms of the value proposition, which we are able to offer rather than just a price and credit. And second, more technicality in terms of technology-led products in terms of what we can give, which are specification-led so that we are able to kind of garner a larger business here.
Sheela Rathi
Understood. Very clear. Thank you, sir.
Operator
Thank you, ma’am. Thank you for joining dear investors. Due to time constraints, those are all the questions we can take for today.
I now hand over the call to Mr. Amit Syngle for his closing remarks. Over to you, sir.
Amit Syngle
Thank you, everyone, for joining us for this investor conference for quarter three FY ’25 results. It was good to kind of interact with you, hoping to you — see next time for the next quarter. Thank you.
Operator
[Operator Closing Remarks]