Asian Paints Limited (ASIANPAINT) Q1 FY23 Earnings Concall Transcript

Asian Paints Limited (NSE:ASIANPAINT) Q1 FY23 Earnings Concall dated Jul. 26, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Arun Nair — Manager of Corporate Communications

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Ramalingam Jeyapandiyan Jeyamurugan — Chief Financial Officer

Parag Rane — General Manager of Finance

Analysts:

Abneesh Roy — Edelweiss Securities Limited — Analyst

Avi Mehta — Macquarie Research — Analyst

Mihir P. Shah — Nomura Securities Co. Ltd. — Analyst

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

Latika Chopra — JPMorgan Chase — Analyst

Shrenik Bachhawat — JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited — Analyst

Tejash Shah — Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited — Analyst

Alok Shah — AMBIT Capital Private Limited — Analyst

Shirish Pardeshi — Centrum Broking Limited — Analyst

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Presentation:

Arun Nair — Manager of Corporate Communications

A very warm welcome to one and all to the Asian Paints Investor Conference for Q1 FY 2023 Results. Today, in the panel, we have Mr. Amit Syngle, MD and CEO; we have Mr. R. J. Jeyamurugan, CFO and Company Secretary; and we have Mr. Parag Rane, GM, Finance. May I now request Mr. Amit Syngle to take you all through the presentation. Mr. Amit Syngle, over to you.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Good evening, and welcome to the investor conference for the quarter one financial year 2023. You can just see that how much trouble we have gone for the first quarter results. So this is an indication in front of you. Going ahead, first of all, just to reiterate that at Asian Paints, we have been delivering joy since 1942. We exist to beautify, preserve, transform all spaces and objects, bringing happiness to the world, and that’s the key kind of objective which we have been kind of following for decades. Obviously, as you know, this is a disclaimer for the overall presentation today. Coming straight to the results. The results have been quite exceptional. As you can see, the overall quarter has gone off quite well in terms of the overall performance, which is there. Total volume growth for the quarter is 37%, which is one of the highest volume growths which we have seen in the last six quarters, so to say. We have a value growth, which is also 59%, which is aided by both a better mix as well as the price increases which we have taken in Q3 and Q4 earlier to that extent, which is the realization which we are getting. The good thing is that when we compare it with the normal year, which is the FY ’19/’20, which was the pre-COVID year, so that you can see in the four-year CAGR, both volume and value CAGRs have been clearly 20% which clearly shows that this is a very, very healthy overall growth which we have been able to get, and it is just not over a lower base to that extent. And this has been the consistent strategy of the company in terms of driving the top line in a very, very strong manner, and that is what you see the results coming out for you. I just referred to this. So if you see consistent kind of overall growth, which you kind of see, you can look at the overall double-digit volume trend, which is coming in, in terms of this overall.

The percentage represents the CAGR numbers, which you are seeing overall. So consistent volume growth, which is coming. And I would say that in a scenario which is currently there, getting a volume growth is a very, very clear indicator in terms of possibly a good performance, which the organization is putting forward as we kind of go forward. Coming to some of the details of the overall performance. One thing which we have been seeing in quarter 1, which is a trend which is continuing for quarter four is that the T1/T2 centers are continuing to grow faster than the T3/T4 centers. The economy range is also leading the growth in T3/T4 centers, but the pre/lux, which is the premium and the luxury, range is growing very well in T1/T2 centers, giving us a very better mix to that extent. But clearly, what we are seeing is that in T3/T4 centers, given the price increases which have taken place, there is a little bit of a downtrading which is happening towards the economy products, where is the growth coming in, in some of those centers there. The other great thing which we see is that the project’s institutional business is on a very, very strong trajectory. We are seeing growth coming from the builder construction segment in a big way. We are also seeing from the whole area of the government spending on infra projects and the factory segments and, therefore, it also continues to nudge our entire growth in Waterproofing and construction chemicals in a very big way overall. And this is something which we see geographically across the country to that extent. And that is why we would say that this seems to be a fairly strong trend which we think will continue. When you look at, overall, from the point of view of our newer categories of Waterproofing and Adhesives, both have been growing at exponential rates for the last few quarters as we see, as it is in the case in this quarter. Overall, the distribution footprint, which we have been kind of telling you all about earlier, is expanding at a fairly staggering rate, and we have added more than about 5,000 retailing points in quarter one itself, which is itself a fairly big number in terms of the way it is.

The other big parameter which Asian Paints is using going forward is innovation. And when we say innovation, this is innovation based on patents. Patents, which have been commercialized. And therefore, we have launched about 10 new products in quarter 1. So today, if we see that in the entire market, we have close to about 40 unique products, which almost no competition has, and almost about 300 unique finishes as far as textures and finishes, which kind of come in. And that’s the kind of innovation, which we are continuing, which we think is very difficult for any other competitor to match as we kind of go ahead. Just to give you a glimpse. If you see some of these products which have come in are by itself very strong products. We are launching an anti-insect enamel. There is advanced PU enamel. PU is the latest technology at the high end. We’re launching high-quality, high-end Glitz matte product, which is there, and we’re launching a full collection, which is called the Lux collection, which is coming in Royale Play, some glimpses of the finishes. The finishes just look brilliant and this is really the gateway of the world, which we are kind of getting to India in terms of the kind of finishes, which look like granite and are really very, very amazing and they can be done with stenciling as well. So I think some amazing kind of standout products, especially at the top end, luxury end and the premium end in terms of what we are kind of taking out. So when we come to the Home Decor business. In this business, what we are seeing is, again, as we are saying, a lot of strides have been made overall. So this is a business, just for your information, we are moving from the share of surface to the share of space within the homes. So it is a transition from saying not only on the four walls but between the four walls. And if you look at one of the areas which we have looked at propagating this decor is our Beautiful Homes stores, which is decor under home — or under one roof, where we offer a range of categories: kitchen, bath, sanitary, lighting, tiles, flooring, etc,. And overall, we have about 31 stores operational across the country.

We also have a service, which we called as the Beautiful Homes Service which is there where we offer a personalized interior design. And I think this is something which has been growing at a very strong pace and got traction. It is offered in about nine cities. We are adding a lot of ranges and categories to our Home Decor proposition. We have added now rugs as a proposition, which has come to our overall decor portfolio and aligned with the organization called Jaipur Rugs there. And we seem to — we are inspiring the entire model through a central digital engine, which is called the BeautifulHomes.com. So digital is a very strong part of this foray, which also takes into the whole area of the Gen Z and the millennial crowd, which kind of comes in a very strong way as we kind of go forward. We see the Kitchen and the Bath business. Again, both businesses in quarter one has been doing extremely well. Kitchen business has grown by a staggering 66%. They locked in more than INR100 crores of business, INR111 crores in kitchen. And they lowered the losses which were there previously. The losses were due to inflation, which we saw in Q1 to that extent, and that is why a small loss, which has come, which we are confident that as we go forward, this will get really turned into profits. If you look at Bath, again, a staggering growth, very healthy growth of 116%, a total business of close to about INR119 crores over a base of 55. These are very, very strong bases as well as what we see. And I think as in the last two quarters, we are seeing good profitabilities have started to come in. We did about — PBT of about INR five crores in Bath business, where we saw lesser of inflation from some of the core raw materials which kind of come into the overall effect. So I think both businesses have now comfortably started crossing the INR100 crores mark strongly. And as we have told you earlier, we are putting up a new plant in Pune, which should be kind of operational by Q4 of this financial year as we kind of go ahead.

So this is a business to really look out for in terms of going forward. Our recent acquisitions, which are there, both have done extremely well in the first quarter. We took on Weatherseal, which was into UPVC windows and doors overall, and this is something which in quarter one has done also quite well overall. And we are growing towards a strong number, which we will deliver this year in terms of the overall space of UPVC windows and doors. And we are making a lot of investments to take this distribution forward as we kind of go ahead. White Teak is the other acquisition, which we had done. The business has done extremely well in the first quarter by maintaining the same gross margins and the EBITDA margins and, overall, it’s a INR20 crore business in quarter one against the full year last year of INR57 crores. So clearly, a business which is growing and strongly growing. So the overall Home Decor, we feel as a foray has been very, very strong in Q1, and this will continue to grow given the higher focus which the organization is putting in this direction. Overall, coming to AP global business, you see the footprint across various countries outside India. The representation is across Asia, Middle East, Africa, in terms of what you see, and in South Pacific. So when we look at the performance here, again, a clear double-digit performance coming in global overall when we see. And this is aided by still the fact that we were able to kind of drive certain price increases in the last quarter and even in this quarter to that extent despite challenging situations, which we have seen in several countries, you are all aware of what’s happening in Sri Lanka, and we’re facing some headwinds with respect to ForEx, even with respect to Egypt in a strong way. But overall, if you see all geographies, Africa has grown by about 8%, Middle East by about 10%, Asia is something which is aided by Nepal and Bangladesh in a strong way by about 24%, overall. And the good part is that we have started realizing good PBTs this year, last year was not so good because of very, very high inflation. And overall PBT, which we have been able to drive, is pretty good in terms of what we have been able to do this year, about INR38 crores against the INR11 crores of loss last year.

So I think that is something which has given us a very strong overall performance as far as the consolidated results go. If you look at the Industrial business, just to remind everyone, we are both in general industrial and auto OE business separately through two JVs, which are there. If I look at the performances, the PPG-AP JV, which looks at Auto OE largely and Refinishes, overall — this JV has done also quite well overall growing at about 63%, given the fact that auto industry has started recovering quite a bit after the chip shortage, which we saw last year and across the quarters to that extent. Given that recovery, we have seen a strong return in the Auto OE business, overall. And if you look at even the Refinishes business, that has also done quite well. And therefore, against last year minus INR six crore of loss, we are looking at almost about INR30 crore kind of a profit coming here to that extent, and that is something which has really propelled the business forward. The other JV, which is the AP-PPG, which we call as the general industrial, has been consistently kind of growing over the last eight quarters, as I see, and they have done a staggering growth of almost about 56% on a very big base of last year as well to that extent. And more importantly, they continue to kind of deliver fairly healthy profits, which is there. And overall, whether it is the whole area of protective paints or in terms of powder coating, the overall business has been pretty good. So in all, Industrial business has done also very, very well, like the other businesses like I had showed you. So if you look at from the gross margins, just for your information, if we compare with, obviously, the margins position overall, the — if you look at sequentially, yes, the margins have come down a little bit from 39.7% to 37.9% because we saw almost a 6% inflation in quarter one over quarter 4, and despite the fact that we had taken 2% price increases during the quarter, definitely, the inflation was far outstripping. We needed to balance the overall price increases in the market so that the price elasticity should remain to that extent in terms of the overall position and that is why we took a slightly balanced price increase overall. When you compare it with an equivalent quarter of last year, which is Q1 of financial year ’22, that is also — was about 38.9%.

So we were one percentage lower as far as overall the gross margin picture is concerned. As we kind of go forward, despite all this, when you look at the stand-alone financials, it is very clear that the performance has been very, very strong. You have a net sales growing at about 60%. You have a gross margin growth of about 55% at an absolute level. The PBDIT is also about a 65% growth. PBT is 73%, and PAT accordingly is at about 71%. But the good thing, obviously, is that the PBDIT margin has improved from 18.7% in quarter one of last year to 19.4% in the quarter one of the current year. And that is something which is a very strong effort which has gone into cost optimization, efficiency measures, which we have kind of taken, despite the higher inflation and the gross margins being lower to that extent and that is something which has been a very, very strong zone in terms of what we have kind of looked at overall performing. So I think that’s a good trend in terms of what we see in terms of the PBDI, PBDIT margins improving, and that is what we hope to kind of retain as we kind of go forward. Coming to the overall consolidated financials. So overall, when we see here, again, the stand-alone top line was slightly better than the other businesses, and that is why the overall net sales here is at about a 55% gain. But if you look at from the point of view of both PBDIT and PBT, it is clear that the other businesses because of AP global doing quite well compared to last year, the growths are much higher here in terms of 70% and 84%, which you clearly see in terms of what has been delivered overall. Even the PBDIT margins have improved by 1.6% over the quarter one of last year. So overall, I think all businesses doing quite well, fairly healthy numbers in terms of what we are seeing, and I think that is something which is propelling the overall growth of the company. I’m sure you are looking at finding out what’s our outlook? I think as we go ahead, we are seeing demand conditions being stable.

As I said, the consumer sentiment in this quarter was also quite good. Overall, we see fairly okay growths in rural and urban markets to continue. We — our focus on delivering top line is something which is very, very strong, and this focus will continue, and we will keep on focusing on both volume and value coming across because that is something which is one of the clear objectives which the organization wants to drive. Overall, when we see, the advance in monsoon has been quite good. Overall, some small deficits here and there, but we feel that the overall monsoon should be normal. And I think that will have a good sentiment in T3/T4 and, therefore, the demands in T3/T4 cities should improve further as we kind of see. Yes, inflation is a big worry at the moment because while inflation stabilized in quarter 4, we again saw resurgence in quarter 1. I think the overall macro environment situations are, again, very, very unpredictable as it kind of looks. Over and above, the rupee depreciation is also a cause of worry. So in all, I think the inflation is a cause of worry in terms of what we need to kind of watch out for and demand is not that much of an issue as we kind of see. And especially when we look at the disturbances which are happening in some of the key markets and the ForEx changes, I think Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Egypt are facing some headwinds, and that is something which we will have to take into stride. But overall, I think the direction seems to be good. We seem to have left COVID behind. And therefore, I think the situation appears fairly good in terms of overall growth as we look forward. Just a bit on in terms of our whole ESG initiative, which is all about our sustainable journey, which is part of our Asian Paints charter. We looked at various areas in terms of environment, social and governance, and you can see these areas right up there, which we follow very stringently and which you would have read in our — the annual report, which we — which came out this year.

And if you look at some of the benchmarks and the landmarks which we have been able to achieve are very, very strong. So whether it is the case of water replenishment, whether it is the case of the whole area of RE, which is the electricity, which we are able to kind of generate, or it is about effluent reduction or it is the hazardous waste disposal, all areas have been very, very stringently kind of taken. We have been working on with the GreenPro certification for almost 187 of our products, and that’s something which is a good achievement. And in the social area, we continue in terms of the work which we have done last year, about 3.75 lakh trainings, which we have been able to impart, and almost about 2.7 lakh beneficiaries of the health initiatives which we have kind of taken. So a very strong body of work which is happening in all these areas which are there. That’s all from us, and thank you so much, and we are now ready for your questions. Thank you.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We now have our first caller online with us via Zoom, Mr. Abneesh Roy. Request you to unmute yourself and ask your question.

Abneesh Roy — Edelweiss Securities Limited — Analyst

Yeah. And my first question is on White Teak. So you’ve seen very sharp number versus the full year. So is there a seasonality here? And is the growth coming because of addition of the distribution or is it because it’s doing well on its own?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So we have used multiple areas to kind of take the White Teak business on. One, the company-owned stores, we are increasing the company-owned stores from their current number to — of 10 to further stores and some numbers have already got increased. We have also introduced White Teak in our Beautiful Homes stores, which are a total 31 stores now to that extent. And we have now expanded the whole design and the range which we are offering in White Teak, some very good work which has happened in all that space. So we think this business, which we are getting, is more because of the fact that there’s a larger distribution now available, people have more access. At the same time, we are also focusing in terms of looking at getting more and more customers to the virtual site so that we can get more leads.

Abneesh Roy — Edelweiss Securities Limited — Analyst

Sure. My second question is on AP-PPG. So 19% revenue CAGR, I don’t think the industry would be growing at this level. So if you could elaborate who are you gaining market share from? And in which industry segments have you gained versus four years back?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So the two segments — or the three segments which we have done extremely well is — one is the segment of powder coating where we have been able to kind of really get very, very good business from the medium-sized industries, which — be it in the area of fans, helmets and so on and so forth, which are there to that extent. And this business has been really growing at exponential growth overall in terms of what we see. And we are getting a higher selling prices as well to that extent in terms of the realizations which are there. The second business is the protective paint business, which, again, we have been able to focus on the oil and gas sector and some other sectors which are there to that extent where we have got good sales coming in. And the third area is the whole area of road marking and flooring. This third area has also kind of grown very strongly with us. We feel that largely, as we see, we would have gained from the organized players in this market in a very strong manner. And this is something which is a strong trajectory basis, superior products, good quality and good servicing.

Operator

We now have our next caller online, Mr. Avi Mehta, who is online with via Zoom so please unmute yourself and ask your question.

Avi Mehta — Macquarie Research — Analyst

Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. I just wanted to ask on the margin front. If you could give us a sense on your outlook on the input cost environment, especially given the almost 10%-odd correction that you’ve seen recently in titanium dioxide prices in China. And a related question, would it be fair to read your outlook comments as 1Q being the bottom of gross margin and we steadily recovering probably in the second half to 40% to 42% range?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So when we see the overall environment, I think the volatility continues. I referred in my presentation that Q4 saw 1% and that point of time, we thought that was the last of the inflation, which we were seeing, to be surprised by quarter one where we saw a 6% kind of inflation coming and that also on the talk of recession happening in the world and overall prices coming down over to that extent. So I think this entire area will continue to be a little bit volatile as we kind of go and see forward because while at this moment, we are seeing crude coming down, we are still seeing inflation in prices of rutile and in prices of some of our additives and so on and so forth, which are there to this thing and especially a very high rise coming with respect to our solvent-based raw materials which are there to that extent. So as I see it, I think even in quarter 2, we are expecting some inflation to kind of continue to that extent. And I don’t think so we should be able to reach that kind of a level until — point of time. While we are taking price increases, we’ve announced another price increase of about 0.5% in quarter 2. And we will take further calibrated price increases going forward. But I think we are not in a situation where the environment is stable. And I think the inflationary kind of environment will continue. But I think the company, by focusing with respect to its initiatives on sourcing, formulation and cost efficiencies, would kind of really see that we are able to deliver good top line growths, at the same time, good PBDIT margins.

Avi Mehta — Macquarie Research — Analyst

Sir, then this is just another bit on continuing with that theme that you expect volatile input costs, would you see signs — are you concerned about decorative demand weakness creeping in because of this inflationary scenario? Or is the near-term commentary still remaining, especially July, for example, continue to bullish? That’s all from my side. And lastly, before — I mean if I don’t get a chance, sir, I wish you get well soon, I could see the hand. That’s all.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

No, thank you for the concern. Overall, what we see very clearly is that the consumer demand is definitely — is a concern, which is there in our mind. But what we have seen in quarter one that after taking almost about increase of anywhere between 25% to about 28%, consumer demand, we have been able to really kind of see that the demand is there, the marriages season is quite big for us, and that is something which seems to be continuing. There seems to be obviously a pent-up demand for the last two years of COVID whatever you say in the market. Overall, the housing sector is kind of, I would say, booming overall. There are a lot of real estate market is going. The construction market is also up in terms of this thing. Government spending on infra is up. Given all this what we are seeing, we are also trying to balance our price increases, as we said, and we are taking very measured increases to that extent, so we don’t upset the consumer demand going forward. So I think we are pretty hopeful that in this balancing act as we kind of go forward, while the environment will remain inflationary, we will try to pass minimum kind of increases as far as the customer is concerned and would focus clearly on consumer demand being there in the market because we would really like to drive the top end of the market in a big way.

Avi Mehta — Macquarie Research — Analyst

Thank you very much.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We now have our next caller online, Mr. Mihir Shah via teleconferencing request you to unmute yourself and ask your question Please Mr Mihir Shah.

Mihir P. Shah — Nomura Securities Co. Ltd. — Analyst

Okay, thank you. Thank you for taking my question and congrats on a strong set of results, sir. Sir, I just wanted to check with you, is there any one-off in the sales or any case of inventory fill up at the dealer end as in — when 4Q was there? They did not purchase as much, so they had to purchase more than normal in the first quarter. So that’s one. And supplementary to that is, if you see the kiloliter volumes sold in this quarter, is it a sustainable one for the remaining part of the year? Because historically, we’ve seen 1Q sales in normal years to be one of the lower versus the other quarters. So assuming that if you’ve done this — a very large part of kiloliter sales this quarter, you should do much more than what you’ve done this quarter in the remaining part of the year. So that’s my first question.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. So as we see it, going forward, we see that the kind of sales which we have been able to get even in terms of the volume level, overall, I think, has been quite good. There is no excessive stocking in the market, which we see very clearly because at Asian Paints, I think we believe that the turnover of inventory at the retailer’s end is very, very important, and we should not be really looking at very high inventory levels at the retailers. And I think that is why possibly we focus on servicing so much. So I think it is very clear that there is no increase of inventory at the retailer’s end, which has kind of gone ahead. And typically, what happens is that July and August are the months of stocking, which really happens depending on what time is the Diwali to that extent. And therefore, I think it is devoid of any kind of inventory dumpings, which are there to that extent. Overall, what we see is that quarter 1, if you look at from a CAGR perspective, I think, is about a 20% volume growth from ’19/’20, which is there. And I think going forward, other quarters, we are also looking at, saying that we can maintain a double-digit end of CAGRs over the normal year, which is there is what is the kind of approach we will have. It will all depend in terms of how consumer demand pans out and how possibly the B2B business also kind of really grows overall. So to that extent, I think, overall, if everything goes well, it should be good growths across the quarters as we see forward.

Mihir P. Shah — Nomura Securities Co. Ltd. — Analyst

My second question is on margins. So how should one think about margins? Can one say the margins have bottomed out in the first quarter? I understand the single-digit inflation that you’re seeing, but the price increases should ideally make up for that. So that’s one, and margins should improve from first quarter onwards. And secondly, on the current margin structure that we have, it’s quite far from the long period average of about 43-odd percent, I’m talking about gross margins. So do you see margins going back to those levels? Or this would be a new normalized margin band the company is working with?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So overall, as far as gross margins is concerned, the entire index totally depends on the inflation going forward, okay? So I think we are calibrating our price increases accordingly to that extent, and we are taking price increases only if it becomes a very clear indicator to us that we need to kind of take a price increase to kind of push up the margins to that extent. I feel that the overall gross margin range for some time might be in the band of about 38% to 40%, as I see it. I don’t see it kind of really going up to 40% to 43% levels immediately to that extent. I think we have some time away from that as we kind of go forward. Till the time we see that the macro situation has improved and we are in a normal kind of a situation, crude comes down, raw materials kind of soften, I think we are a little bit far away from that. But I think currently, we should kind of live it in that band of maybe 30% to 40.5% kind of an overall gross margin band.

Mihir P. Shah — Nomura Securities Co. Ltd. — Analyst

Got it. And lastly, if I can ask on bookkeeping on capex. And wish you a speedy recovery, sir. That’s all from my side.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. On capex, what is your specific query?

Mihir P. Shah — Nomura Securities Co. Ltd. — Analyst

Sir, what is the capex outlay that we have planned for this year and next year?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

You want to answer that?

Parag Rane — General Manager of Finance

Yes. So for the year, we are putting a number of close to about INR800-odd crores from a capital outlay point of view, most of it going into our brownfield capital expansions. thank you and wish you a speedy recovery.

Mihir P. Shah — Nomura Securities Co. Ltd. — Analyst

So, thank you so much.

Parag Rane — General Manager of Finance

Thank you

Operator

We now have our next caller online, Mr. Richard Liu, who is online with us via Zoom please unmute yourself and ask your question sir.

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

Can you all hear me?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, we can hear you.

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

Thank you. So just got two questions out here. One is on the outlook slide. You mentioned out there that Q2 inflation is estimated to be more single digit…

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Sorry, your voice is coming — echo is there in your voice. Can you go away from your speaker and speak possibly?

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

Okay. Is this better?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, a little bit. Yes.

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

So I was asking about what you mentioned in the outlook slide that Q2 inflation is estimated to be in [Indecipherable] wondering though is this Y-o-Y or Q-on-Q? Are you talking about September quarter inflation versus June quarter or is it September versus last year September?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. So see, overall inflation which we were talking of was, first of all, we said that if you see Q1 from Q4 was about a 6% kind of increase in terms of what we saw. In Q4, we saw about a 1% increase compared to Q3, which was there overall to that extent. And overall, what we have seen has been an increase of almost about — close to about 34% overall in terms of what we have seen as inflation from last year — Q4 of last year.

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

And this single digit is…

Parag Rane — General Manager of Finance

Sorry, Richard, on your question about Q2, yes, we have indicated a single-digit kind of inflation on Q2 over Q1 current year.

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

Okay. So that would work out to a Y-on-Y of how much?

Parag Rane — General Manager of Finance

Y-o-Y would still be in the region of about 25-odd percent because we had a steep inflation coming in Q3 of last year.

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

But Parag, if I look at the headline numbers for TiO2 and crude, which are, I guess, two of your major components of your basket, one is really talking about in the region of about 50% for TiO2 and maybe still about 70% for crude. How are you able to manage with just about 25% [Indecipherable]

Parag Rane — General Manager of Finance

Yes, so Richard, I think we are losing you in between, but I will still try to answer it. So while you are saying that TiO2 and other things have softened to an extent, but in our sort of raw material basket, what we are seeing is including TiO2 and while crude has dropped a bit, the solvent categories has moved up quite significantly. We saw that kind of an inflation hitting us even in Q1 of current year. So really, the linkage between crude prices — the headline crude prices coming off and some of our consumption prices not showing that kind of a trend, I think, that still exists. So we’ll have to sort of live with that as we go forward.

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

No, Parag, I’m talking the other way around. I’m saying that the headline inflation is actually more than what we have indicated despite this outlook.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

No, overall, see, there is always the lag in terms of the overall prices in terms of what we see. So currently, in terms of whatever softening which you are seeing, which is there, possibly, that is indicative of some kind of a lower inflation as we have seen in Q1 over Q4 to that extent. So I think what we are seeing definitely is that yes, there is softening in terms of the overall level, but the inflation is still there to that extent in terms of what we are calculating. So I don’t think so you should go by the general overall parameters which you are seeing in terms of increases. What we are saying that there is a 6% inflation. And rutile being a very, very strong contributor in terms of the overall raw material, you could link that a large part of the inflation is also coming from rutile.

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

And — so if I go by the fact that you’re talking about mid-single-digit Q-o-Q inflation and your incremental price hike is just about 0.5% in Q2…

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

About 2% in quarter one.

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

No, in July.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Okay.

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

Right? So you’re talking about a low single-digit incremental raw material inflation, a 0.5% incremental price hike, are you saying that your gross margin in Q2 will be lower than Q1?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So see, I mean, the — if you see the quarter two is still not over in terms of what is going on. So we are still kind of monitoring the situation. So when we say that we are expecting a lower digit inflation number, we still don’t know whether it is going to be at about 1%, 1.5% or 2% kind of a zone. We are estimating all that. And there could be — depending on what is the kind of inflation, what is the kind of other efficiencies we are getting, we might take more calibrated price increases as we go forward.

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

Okay. And second is this White Teak turnover of INR20 crore, that is included in the consolidated revenue for this quarter?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

That includes what, sorry?

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

The White Teak sales of INR20 crores, that’s a part of the consolidated revenue that we reported?

Parag Rane — General Manager of Finance

No, Richard. So in White Teak, we have a 49% stake, Richard. So from a top line perspective, it doesn’t really get consolidated, but the profit gets consolidated in our overall profit for the…

Richard Liu — JM Financial — Analyst

That’s a part of associates…

Parag Rane — General Manager of Finance

Yes, correct. Correct.

Operator

We now have Latika Chopra who is online with us through Zoom please unmute yourself and ask your question.

Latika Chopra — JPMorgan Chase — Analyst

Thank you so much for the opportunity. My first question was on the B2B business. This has been growing quite strongly for you. So if you could share what is the salience of B2B revenues in your stand-alone decorative business? And is there a very big difference in the 4-year CAGR that you’ve shared between B2C and B2B? That was the first question. And the second question was, again, just trying to understand the strong demand better. Any thoughts on — it seems your market share gains have probably accelerated in the last few quarters. How much of this will you attribute to distribution expansion in semi-urban, rural areas? Any thoughts there?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So first of all, if you look at the entire B2B business, today, I think the business varies from anywhere between 15% to 20% of the total business in terms of what we do, in terms of the contribution which kind of comes in. And today, the business is something which is very well distributed across the country and it comes from various segments. So whether it’s the builder or the construction segment, which is largely there, or it comes from the cooperative housing societies or it is from the direct sales to factories and government and so on and so forth to that extent. So overall, this business has been growing overall fairly well for us to that extent and largely, I think, here, the key point has been the quality of our products, the propositions what we are able to offer to the various segments and also along with us the entire Waterproofing business we have been able to really give a very, very strong proposition to the market in terms of looking at the overall Projects is doing extremely well for us overall. So that’s, I think, the key reason in terms of why the overall Projects has been growing at a very, very strong chip. Sorry, what was the second question? Sorry, what was the second question, please?

Latika Chopra — JPMorgan Chase — Analyst

Yes, sorry — okay. My second — my question was basically on some flavor on the distribution reach increase, is that…

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. So what we see is that overall, there has been good performance due to a virtue of lot many reasons. One reason what I would say is that overall, the brand has done quite well. We have been spending a huge amount of money on the marketing in terms of furthering the corporate brand and also looking at in terms of various strong propositions which kind of come in. And I think today, we have a decent spend with respect to even the digital in terms of what we are doing in terms of getting the new age customer in a very, very strong manner. As far as distribution goes, we have been expanding the network very, very aggressively for years to that extent. And I think we have just looked at putting a little bit more aggression on that in the last about 2, three years to that extent. And overall, we feel that, that is an inherent part of our overall strategy in terms of looking at, saying that we could kind of reach to every part of the growing country the way India is to that extent. So I would say that we can’t figure out only one factor that it is just because of distribution that today we are doing better. But I think it is a combination of factors in terms of looking at better products, innovative products, good marketing, good servicing and the extension of our retailers across the country. Thank you.

Latika Chopra — JPMorgan Chase — Analyst

Thank you so much.

Operator

We now have Mr. Shrenik Bachhawat through Zoom unmute yourself and ask your question please.

Shrenik Bachhawat — JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited — Analyst

Hi, Sir. Thanks for the question. So my first question is, I would like to understand if there is any major change in the product mix in this quarter versus last 2, three quarters for us?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So overall, the product mix was much better as we saw it, and we had a good quantity of overall Emulsions which sold better in terms of the mix and these Emulsions were both from the economy segment as well as from the premium and the luxury segment in terms of what we were able to do. We also sold good quality of premium and luxury products as far as our overall Waterproofing and Wood Finishes business goes. So overall, I would say the product mix was much better.

Shrenik Bachhawat — JM Financial Institutional Securities Limited — Analyst

And sir, is there any specific geography which has been doing very good for us recently? And if we take for a longer term perspective for the next five to 10 years, what do we take as a volume CAGR target for our company?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So overall, if you look at from a geographical variation, when you are growing at almost 50% to 60%, I think all geographies has drawn — grown very, very well for us. I can only say that specifically, if I look at the geographies of West and South in quarter 1, they have kind of done possibly incrementally much better in terms of what we would kind of see overall. As far as overall today, any organization would like to pursue, we would obviously like to pursue very, very healthy volume growths going forward because that is a strong indicator of how the organization is going forward. And we are definitely looking at saying that one of the areas we want to kind of continue is to kind of keep on looking at double-digit volume growth rates.

Operator

We now have Mr. Tejash through Zoom request you to unmute yourself and ask your question please.

Tejash Shah — Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited — Analyst

Hi, thanks for the opportunity. And congrats on a very good set of numbers. Sir, a couple of questions. First, just an extension of an earlier question on dealer additions. So 5,000 dealer addition in a quarter is a very robust number. Just wanted to get some sense on profile of these dealers? Are they part of the industry, and we are gaining market share against existing brands on the dealership network? Or these are like virgin dealers getting into the industry from some other larger basket of home building or other adjacent industries?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So overall, when — as Asian Paints, we look at the entire distribution network, we look at all kind of retailers because today, we are dealing with the retailers who are into hardware. We are dealing who are in electricals, we deal with people who are in cement and steel, we deal with people who are in PVC pipes and so on so forth or are in other building material stores to that extent or even our plywood dealers and so on and so forth. Because today, it is very difficult to define that a retailer will deal only in one category. Normally, what we are seeing is that retailers tend to kind of get into multiple categories if they are in the whole area of building to that extent. And therefore, what we keep on exploring is that actually opening retailers more from the point of view of reach to the consumer. So we look at clear clusters which are coming up where possibly our reach could be better. This could be in the existing cities. It could be in the suburbs, it could be in the newer towns, it could be in some of the up-country low population towns to that extent. And I think the overall range is pretty wide in terms of what we look at. The idea is very clear that as Asian Paints, we should be able to give him a profitable kind of venture, which kind of really leverages his whole business and kind of really drives him towards growth. So I think we look at all types of retailers in terms of a choice of extending the distribution.

Tejash Shah — Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited — Analyst

Sure. Sir, second question pertains to our “Share of wall to share of space” vision. Now historically, lifestyle categories brand and partnership brands have not been created without either controlling the retail experience, which is a retail network, or controlling the back end, which is manufacturing. So as of now, our model seems to be devoid or rather not committing capital to the either end. So as these make a plan for next 5, 10 years, how are we thinking about this evolution in our business model?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Actually, contrary to what you are saying, we are focusing on both the ends. We have all the businesses where we’ve got into our own manufacturing, be it kitchen, be it bath, be it lighting, be it in terms of now windows and doors or it is in terms of furnishing to that extent. And therefore, it is all coming from in-house in terms of what we are making, either it is in terms of acquisition or it is in terms of some alignments, which we have done kind of a thing. So we are able to control quality. We are able to control design. And therefore, that is a very strong strength which we have acquired. And at the front end, I think today, no other player gives a kind of inspiration and experience as we give to the consumer because we operate through about 31 Beautiful Homes stores, which are there today across the country. These are state-of-the-art stores and comparable to any international store, which you will find in Singapore, Paris or London, to that extent. It is totally phygital, which has a digital journey, which kind of comes in, visualization is excellent, which is based on 3D and 4D models, which are there. And we also offer execution service, which is like BHS, which is there to that extent. So I think we are offering the customer right from a very strong product, which is manufactured in-house, designed by us, to an experience which is really exemplary which works out. So I think we are working on everything in terms of what possibly is right in the category.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We now have our next caller, Mr. Alok Shah, who is with us via teleconferencing. Mr. Alok Shah?

Alok Shah — AMBIT Capital Private Limited — Analyst

Yeah. Thank you. And secondly, from a good performance. Sir, my first question is actually an extension to what Tejash has just asked. So my question is, at the current juncture, those hardware stores or PVC pipes, etc,. so they would potentially may not be keeping any paint brands. But in that vicinity, you would already have some dealer, etc,. who will be servicing the paint or this is absolutely new geographies that Asian Paints is tapping through this channels? And second question is in terms of servicing to this channel of hardware stores, etc,. happening in terms of different assortments and the different SKUs that you have?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So I didn’t understand the second part of your question, what is the assortment of what they’re having at the hardware stores?

Alok Shah — AMBIT Capital Private Limited — Analyst

No, no. So the second question is in terms of the servicing because I understand that they may not be really having the tinting machine, considering maybe the space constraint, etc,. So how is it that the servicing to those stores are happening currently?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So I must say that possibly, I think you should take a round of some of the towns and cities to understand how these stores are, first of all. But I think overall, when we look at — from a point of view of our distribution strategy, we are very clear that we approach the whole strategy in form of a cluster. So if there is already an existing retailer who’s there, we will take care in terms of that we are not really opening someone right next to kind of compete with the retailer to that extent. And therefore, what we clearly said we look at is we look at extension of suburbs in the existing cities, newer towns, which are kind of coming up and really look at clear clusters where possibly our customer reach might not be very, very good to that extent. And therefore, we have no problems in terms of looking at possibly a certain reach in terms of what we are able to get. Secondly, these stores are not small. And in fact, if you keep on going deeper into the country, the stores get bigger. The stores are only small in cities like Bombay and Delhi, where the real estate is of a very strong value. As you kind of keep on going in smaller towns, you will find people able to offer you even 2,000 square feet to 3,000 square feet of space, which is available. And the tinting machine doesn’t occupy much of a space to that extent. And therefore, we try that — with most of our openings, we try to give them tinting machines so that they get a flavor of tinting and they are able to kind of supply to their customers the best of the colors which they can overall open to that extent. And therefore, that’s a very, very strong model in terms of looking at opening newer retailers with tinting machines to that extent as they kind of go forward.

Alok Shah — AMBIT Capital Private Limited — Analyst

Got it. And sir, would there be any numeric target that you can guide us with, maybe in terms of overall dealer or the retail network expansion? Because I understand it’s closer to around 150,000. Any medium-term targets that you can share?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So yes, we have about — presence of about 150,000 retail points, which are there. And we keep on looking at, saying that depending on how the country is expanding, how the demographics are panning out that we should be able to add anywhere between 5,000 to 8,000 retailing points every year.

Alok Shah — AMBIT Capital Private Limited — Analyst

Okay. Okay. Sure. And sir, the second question is on the overall dealer incentive structure, etc,. Just wanted to check how has it evolved? Is there any major changes that have been taken place at the company’s end, hence the competition’s end over the last 3, four years or it largely remains the same? Your thoughts on that?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Sorry, what has evolved?

Alok Shah — AMBIT Capital Private Limited — Analyst

No, no, the dealer incentive structure, etc,. Just wanted to — I know — are there…

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So incentives, I think our incentives at the end of the day, it is — the dealers are quite proficient and clever in this. So I think what really matters to them is the per liter kind of a discount. You can give that discount in 10 ways to the retailer to that extent, it doesn’t matter overall. But I think overall, the incentive structures have not changed. We find that at points of time in the year, it kind of gets aggressive by everyone. Sometimes, it is a little bit more benign in terms of how it goes. But overall, I think the incentive structures are remaining the same.

Operator

We now have Mr. Shirish Pardeshi through Zoom request you to unmute yourself.

Shirish Pardeshi — Centrum Broking Limited — Analyst

So Yeah, hi, good evening, Amit, thanks for the opportunity. And I was completely surprised with the kind of volume growth you have shown quarter-on-quarter. So my first question is pertaining on the volume growth. I’m not getting into deeper, but if you can help me how this growth has come? I mean I’m not getting into region-wise specific. But if you can — you’ve already touched upon the premium Emulsions and even the economy has done well. But if you can break that, how much it has contributed through the decorative paint side and the waterproofing side?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So overall, what we can say is that I think when we look at both Retail and Projects, I think both businesses have contributed very strongly to the overall volume growth. I would say that the Projects has contributed even still higher in terms of looking at the overall business to that extent. The other thing what we see is that the T1/T2 centers have kind of contributed to higher volume growth, which is coming both from the premium and the luxury products and the Wood Finishes and the Waterproofing zones, which are there to that extent overall. So I would say that when we kind of look at our overall growths, a large chunk of growths are obviously coming from a lot of our premium and luxury products, which are lying in Emulsions, Wood Finishes and Waterproofing business. But at the same time, good growths are also coming from our economy Emulsions, the upgradation Emulsions which are there, to that extent, and they have also kind of grown extremely well overall. So I would say it’s a fairly balanced growth in terms of what we would see. Waterproofing would have grown at a slightly higher pitch overall to that extent. But I think it’s a fairly overall balanced growth in terms of what we have been able to see.

Shirish Pardeshi — Centrum Broking Limited — Analyst

Okay. My second question is on the Home Decor. By when do you think you will start reporting the numbers? Because what I see in this quarter, you have taken out your reporting on home improvement also. So I think that’s a suggestion, but I’m more keen on looking at these 31 stores, what kind of revenue you are doing now? And maybe directionally, you have said that you want to have around 8% to 9%, 10% contribution. But in the medium term, what is the target or what is the run rate, if you can share?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

I think it makes sense in terms of reporting when you reach a number which is strong, as I said earlier, that we are really kind of saying that we want to kind of look at the next three to four years to kind of look at almost 8% to 10% contribution of the Decor business going forward. So I think as you go through this journey, we will, at the right time, possibly look at in terms of putting those numbers out.

Shirish Pardeshi — Centrum Broking Limited — Analyst

And just last bookkeeping question. On the tax rate, Mr. Jeyamurugan, if you can help us, what should we factor in for this year and next year?

Ramalingam Jeyapandiyan Jeyamurugan — Chief Financial Officer

We are at the same maximum tax rate, actually, is 25%-plus surcharge, which will be around 27%. We’re in the same rate, there is no change.

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

You have some news that the rates are changing?

Shirish Pardeshi — Centrum Broking Limited — Analyst

I will come and personally tell you. Anyway Amit, best of luck and take care.

Operator

We now have Mr. [Indecipherable] Chandu. please unmute yourself and ask your question sir

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Hello, am I audible?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Yes.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Yes. So congrats on the splendid performance that you showed this quarter. So my question was on the price increases. So one is that you’re saying that the situation — you’re [Indecipherable] on the situation and the situation is volatile. And you said a mid-single-digit price increase. Is it for the forthcoming quarter is what you are pricing in, penciling in for the quarter ahead?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So what we have done, what I said is that in terms of inflation, we are saying that the inflation could be anywhere around 1.5% to 2% in terms of what we are seeing. Currently, we’ve taken almost about a 0.5% increase as on 1st of August. And depending on our exact calculations and how the environment pans out, we will look at possibly taking more increases as we go by.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Okay. And one more question, sir, if you could allow me? How — so how many painting jobs are we doing currently on a monthly basis, let’s say, when we are going to each of the house of the customers and getting the homes painted? So how is that segment of our vertical doing currently?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

So I think that is doing quite well. We are now represented in more than 600 towns across the country, which is there. And overall, the houses — number of houses which we do vary from month to month, and it varies from size very, very strongly. So the numbers do not really mean anything. What I think is important is the per square feet, which we are kind of able to paint every month to that extent, and that is something which we evaluate internally. But that is a business which has been doing quite well overall to that extent. And we feel that the whole Safe Painting Service, which we are running, is one of the best services across the world.

Unidentified Participant — — Analyst

Okay. So sir, if you could just tell me the square footage that we are painting on a ballpark basis?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Sorry, that number can’t be disclosed.

Operator

May I now request Mr. Amit Syngle to deliver the closing remarks?

Amit Syngle — Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Great. It is wonderful to have all of you with us for the investor conference for the quarter one of financial year 2023. And we really hope that possibly we keep the same pace in terms of our delivery as we kind of go forward and keep on giving you the good news as we march forward in this year. Thank you so much.

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