Ashapura Minechem Ltd (NSE: ASHAPURMIN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call dated Feb. 11, 2026
Corporate Participants:
Chetan Shah — Group Chairman
Ashish Desai — Chief Financial Officer
Manan Shah — Group Promoter
Chetan Shah — Group Chairman
Analysts:
Unidentified Participant
Kamlesh Bagmar — Analyst
Dhananjai Bagrodia — Analyst
Vardhman Arvind Sancheti — Analyst
Nalin Shah — Analyst
Samir Patel — Analyst
CA Amitesh Mandowara — Analyst
Krish Salot — Analyst
Presentation:
operator
Ladies and gentlemen, under this contract. Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Ashapura Mindchem Limited Q3FY26 earnings conference call hosted by AD Factors. This conference call may contain forward looking statements about the company which are based on the beliefs, opinions and expectations of the company as on the date of this call. These statements are not. The guarantees of future performance involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. As a reminder, all participant line will be in the listen only mode and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes.
Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing Star then zero on your Touchstone phone. Please note that this call is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Chetan Shah, promoter director of Ashapura Mindchem Ltd. Thank you. And over to you sir.
Chetan Shah — Group Chairman
Thank you. Hello friends. Good evening. This is our third investors call and I’d like to welcome all our stakeholders on this investors call to review our quarterly performance. I also like to appreciate our team including Manan, Ashish and Sachin who have maintained this momentum to ensure that you receive all information on regular basis. I agree that our quarterly results are par with our previous quarter, but certainly it is slightly below the expectations. The prolonged monsoon in guinea had impacted our operations and affecting our overall performance. We have not achieved our expected volume which we have planned for quarter three.
It’s not that we had sufficient commitment but because of the climatic changes and some logistic difficulties because of changing climates we could not push that volume. It’s not any other reasons. There is no lack of business or there is no lack of orders or not lack of any shipping arrangements etc. But we could not reach to the expected volume and that’s affected the performance. At the same time our team is working diligently to mitigate such effects and get back to things on track. I’m sure the outcome should reflect in our forthcoming quarters. I can tell more about the guinea operations but before that would just tell you that about the India also.
The Indian operations also have seen some headwinds mainly due to volatility in the raw material cost and the climatic changes. At the same time you could see that remarkable improvement in our EBITDA margin and this is mainly because of during the quarter we are not paid any kind of a substantial damage. The maintained consistent shipping freight and also our new tie up with the mining and logistic contractors the China Railway. These factors help to improve the EBITDA margin. Besides that, we have taken several new initiatives will help to maintain the consistent cost structure. This means the improvement in volume in future.
I mean that the improvement in the volume in the future and stabilize the market price will create many more new records in coming quarters. We are quite optimistic for the future. I know the current market price of the bauxite might be concerned for all it is our concern too. But the price in the last few days it stabilized at this level. And I think now it’s the time to there will be some revival in the price and that has to go towards north. We are waiting for the Chinese Spring festival time Chinese newer time. And after that we could see that there will be some upward trend in the bauxite price.
But at the current price also we are fairly comfortable to continue our export activities. The main reasons for the drop in the bauxite price are mainly because of the some of the suspended leases in Kenya has started their operation. There is another factor is the US China long term trade deal is yet to be concluded. So that is all the trade deal is on the short term basis. They are waiting for some trade deal to happen on long term basis which will again push the requirement and the demand for the aluminum metal. Another factor is the China government has stopped the approval for the new smelters in China.
They want the Chinese entrepreneurs to look anywhere in the world to set up the new smelters. It’s related with aluminum or copper and not within the China. So Chinese entrepreneurs are looking for some new opportunities. And this is the reason the new upcoming alumina refineries have the excess supplies of the alumina and that is also given some pressure on the bauxite price. If you look at that the how the bauxite price will go into the future and what are the reasons to be. If you look overall the picture, the guinea is the only country who has is a viable or commercially viable country to supply bauxite to the rest of the world.
The guinea will cross 200 million ton exports in this year. And currently you know you won’t see any other country in the world who can replace guinea now or in next 10 years. So guinea will remain in a pre. You can say in a very strong positions for coming many years. There’s no excess supplies coming from any other part other than Australia that they supplies about 40 million tons of bauxites. And there’s no other countries like India or Brazil or Indonesia supplying any major exports either to China or any other countries in the world. So looking to these factors, guinea will remain in a very predominant country conditions to continue to supply Bauxites and.
During the course of time you have taken the several new initiatives that’s long term tie up with the mining and logistics company long term tie up with the ocean freight. That will be long term sustainability for the Ashapura. For as far as the costing or the you can say the cost structure is concerned we are able to keep all our cost in control. Volume growth is very certain and we have a lot of optimism on the price stabilizations and reasonable level will put Ashapura in much better league. As you also know that Ashapura has hold the license for iron ore mining.
Currently our iron ore has been like we are supplying to the local beneficiation plant and now our quality is fairly established and stabilized with the beneficiation plant and we expect some substantial volume during this year. Of course this is a local supply basis and we will continue to supply to this beneficiation plant whose requirement is very very large. So we will have the some more additions of the business in guinea besides bauxites. So overall pictures looks quite interesting and we see that the whatever we could not able to achieve during the last quarters will be able to make up in coming quarters without any much problem.
I really appreciate all your interest in our current activities and we will continue to brief you on time to time. Thank you very much.
operator
Sir. Should we open the floor for questions now?
Manan Shah — Group Promoter
I think we will have a small address by our CFO and then some closing remarks and then we can do that. So over to you Ashish Bhai.
Ashish Desai — Chief Financial Officer
Thank you Manan and good afternoon everyone. Coming to financial performance for quarter three and nine months for 2526. So first of all let’s see quarter three numbers. So consolidated revenue from operations for quarter three stood at 960.4 crore which is more or less par. To be precise 0.8% quarter on quarter growth on the back of consistent growth in guinea compared to quarter one. EBITDA for quarter three stood at 143 crore which is a growth of 8.3%.
Quarter on quarter margin is 14.9% which was 13.9 in quarter two. This was mainly driven by reduced damage charges, enhanced cost efficiency and like that PBT and before exceptional item for quarter three stood at 89.31 crore growing over 10%. Compared quarter on quarter and margin was 9.3% which was 8.5 in quarter two. Basic EPI stood at 8.82 for the quarter. Genea contributed around 76% to revenue in quarter three and India contributed 24.2% coming to nine months of 26 Consolidated revenue stood at around 3268 crore reflecting growth of almost 50% year on year. EBITDA came to around 463 crore which is 52% up compared to year on year with EBITDA margin of 14.2% which was less than 14 in last nine months of the same year.
Profit before tax on exceptional item for nine months was rupees 303 crore growing 37% year on year and pvt margin at 9.3% versus 10% for last nine months of 25 and basic EPS for nine months stood at 30.43. One exceptional note which we have given in the published result also was one time impact on our PNL because of labor code impactive November 25new labor code revised the definition of wages for the purpose of computing employee benefits. Following detailed assessment, Company has recognized an incremental impact of 1.77 crore at standalone level and 4.56 crore in the consolidated result as an exceptional item.
So that’s all from the number point of view. I would request Manan to explain the dynamics of the.
Manan Shah — Group Promoter
Yeah, just to share. Thanks Ashish Bhai. Just to share some of the closing remarks on our, you know, long term plan, we would like to reiterate that we are very confident of achieving our long term volume target of 15 million tons long. This is for the 2728 as we have stated. We are confident of that. While currently the bauxite prices are lower than our expectation, we expect them to stabilize and gradually pick up and we also see that our company has put a lot of efforts to optimize the cost so we remain comfortable to make the shipments even at current prices.
So we expect that while there is a, you know, while there is an impact of price, we expect that the increase in volume to more than offset that impact. And regarding to the India business, we remain confident of our long term vision and goal to improving profitability and sales through the addition of value added products and company remains focused on this goal in each of its major segments. Thank you all for being with us on this call and now we can open the floor for questions.
Questions and Answers:
operator
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press Star and one on their touchstone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press Star and two participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question Comes from the line of Kamlesh Bagmar from Lotus Asset Managers. Please go ahead.
Kamlesh Bagmar
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. Manambhai. Just one question on the part of operation. So what is the cost of let’s say production or the cost till the delivery of bauxite?
Manan Shah
Okay, I think that we have commented on this cost structure on earlier calls also. But I think broadly the cost is a breakup into the three major categories. You can consider that we have the seafaring cost, we have the, you know, the transshipment cost and then we have the mining and the logistics to the port cost. So broadly these are the major costs which we are having.
As we have mentioned that our previous quarter EBITDA has come in around 10 and a half dollars. So we expect that broadly some of this cost may be slightly elastic with the selling price but most of the cost will mean relatively fixed or it will gain the efficiency over time. So while giving current complete breakup on the call may not be possible but we still expect that, that we’re costing to be below the current current, even the current prices of the bauxite. So for now what we can mention is that we our costing would be below even the current price of bauxite.
However detailed breakup would take time. The major components like I mentioned are seafaret mining and logistics and the transshipment costs. So that’s what I can offer for now.
Kamlesh Bagmar
So let’s say it is $10 and a half dollars EBITDA per term in this quarter. So what was the realization?
Manan Shah
I think at current bauxite prices probably the realization would moderate quite a bit.
Kamlesh Bagmar
How much was the realization? Q3
Manan Shah
realization is 10 and a half dollars. That’s the EBITDA. Do you want the total number? That is our volume declared volume is 1.39 and EBITDA is $10. So about about 14, 14 and a half million dollars.
Kamlesh Bagmar
I am asking that what is the revenue there?
Manan Shah
Revenue? I haven’t realized this in. Sorry, revenue I think is we have given the, in the segment wise breakup. We have given that the total turnover from our guinea business has come 729 crores per turn. The approximate price would be around $70. I mean I’m converting the fob also into the tentative CIF bosque but our average index. Oh so yeah, that would be around $70.
Kamlesh Bagmar
Okay, $70 is FOB
Manan Shah
China. The equivalent would be $70.
Kamlesh Bagmar
Okay, okay. And any update on the iron ore business there? Like say what is this?
Manan Shah
So iron ore business, as we mentioned last time we were having some trial activity with this beneficiation plant which has progressed quite well.
It’s still, we feel too soon to say, but we are very hopeful that we would be having a very clear projection for iron ore at the end of the quarter four. That what can be the, you know, the kind of volume and the kind of realization which, which, which we can, we can expect. I think we should be in a good position to comment on that at the end of quarter four. But I think the general idea is that we think that our trials are going quite well with, with the partner on the beneficiation plant and we are, we are at least confident that there will be a long term iron ore business with them.
Kamlesh Bagmar
And you have highlighted about the FY28 volume guidance on bauxite. So what, what we are targeting for this year, FY27,
Manan Shah
I think that somewhere we are, we have not given out a target basically, but we do think that it could be a linear growth. As I’ve mentioned many times that okay, we did up in the previous year about three or three and a half million tons and 15 intense. So we expect like a linear ramp up, you know, over the year, on year and that way. So from 3 million to 15 million with the three milestones in the middle.
So you can add it up how it comes by. But we are expecting a linear growth between 3 last year and 15 as a target for 27, 28.
Kamlesh Bagmar
Good, thanks.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Natic Mohata from Sequent Investment. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Hi, good evening sir and thank you for the opportunity. So my first question is, I think so. We have discussed about this demo charges in our press release as well in our opening remarks. So can you help us quantify what were these Denver charges that were paid in quarter two, like the amount for it.
Manan Shah
So I think that, you know, we’re not currently offering that kind of data. But I can tell you that one of the reason we were able to increase our EBITDA even compared to quarter two, quarter three has a slightly lower pricing.
Still we were able to improve our ebitda. So definitely I can say a good part of that contribution, I would even say maybe about 20, 25, 30% of the improvement actually comes from the fact that our turnaround times for the shipments were much faster than quarter two. So there is a significant improvement and there may be still scope for a little bit more improvement as far as the demo is concerned as our execution capabilities are improving. But I would say that it is a good part of the improvement in The EBITDA has come from our ability to turn around these vessels faster.
Unidentified Participant
So but at the same time I believe that quarter three volumes were not as per up to the mark as you know, what we were expecting or what the management was expecting as well. So wouldn’t that warrant another quarter of damage charges that might become a problem in coming quarters?
Manan Shah
Okay, so I think that the reason really was the prolonged monsoon and we have done our shipment planning accordingly. So despite having the little bit of the numbers, you know, our own internal targets, we can safely saver missed for quarter three. But despite that we had an improvement in damage.
So our planning on the vessels was probably far better. I think quarter four also should see this kind of a turnaround or better. So because quarter four would have obviously no monsoon impact. I think our overall cost structure now is quite consistent and fairly fixed as we are stabilizing into this journey. So demurrage being one of those costs has also improved.
Ashish Desai
Yeah, hello. Yeah, our future, our future freight contracts at the load port. You know, we have, we are now working on CQD terms. So in security terms there is no damage is applicable. So, so this is a new development.
So like the shipping companies agreed on security terms. That means that all the loading is without any damage and this is a good benefit for the company, you know, and we can avoid, and they can plan the shipment in a such a way that they, they don’t have the loss and we also don’t have the loss. There’s a very big international capsized carrier.
Unidentified Participant
That’s very positive to hear, sir. So secondly, on the pricing environment regarding bauxite, so there has been a lot of headwinds regarding the pricing for bauxite, be it increased inventories at the alumina refineries in China or increased production out of Guinea.
So at these prices we are expecting that the prices to stabilize. But at current prices, how sustainable would our EBITDA per ton of $910 would be?
Manan Shah
So we definitely expect, as I tried mentioning earlier, we do expect that EBITDA will moderate as you can understand that. Our previous quarter we mentioned average pricing was around 70 and currently pricing going around is 60 or 61 or something like this. So there would be an impact, but we still expect to be, you know, first of all, we are definitely confident of being EBITDA positive. That’s the first point.
I think that there can be a moderation. You know, at least maybe there would maybe a 40, 50% moderation which, which I expect that may come in the ebitda. But we expected the volumes to offset the, you know, the pert and kind of the reduced ebitda. We expect the volume growth to support us in, in this phase which, which, which we are expecting from now on. But yeah, we do think that there may be a 40, 50% moderation in EBITDA.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, thank you. Thank you for the opportunity. Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Dhananjay Bagrodia from Alchemy. Please go ahead.
Dhananjai Bagrodia
Hi. Maybe you’ve missed this. Just a couple of things. Broadly what CAPEX numbers are we thinking for the next few years and B what is our cost of production versus some of our peers in terms of Costco?
Manan Shah
Okay. I think Capex basically might be. The way that we look at it is that basically in guinea we feel that most of our capex is completed. We have a, you know, we are expecting that maybe compared to the Capex we have done another 20, 25% more CAPEX may come through over the next year or year and a half or so.
But we, what we think we can highlight is that the bulk of the capex is done and also having good partners with us has reduced the capex burden on us to some degree. So that’s the comment what I can offer on the future capex as far as guinea is concerned. I think India will also see some capex which we are finalizing. We are looking at expanding a couple of our business capacities but that may be a little bit less significant in number than the, than even the guinea business. But we do feel that in guinea most of our capex is on the way and that’s why we are focused on ramping up volumes.
Your second question was on the cost curve that where are we? I would like to think that probably we are somewhere. We have, you know, between the two deposits. Probably we would be somewhere in the middle of the curve.
Dhananjai Bagrodia
Okay, I think that there are, there are the. What would your cost be?
Chetan Shah
So I mean currently like we mentioned that the price was about $70 and our EBITDA was $10. So about $60 would have been our total cost CIF basis. Right. In that maybe almost the $25 would be the kind of ocean freight. So balance is our cost in which the major cost really is the logistics.
The mining cost is never much. It’s like two or three dollars kind of a mining cost. So. And then there are so more than about, about $5 of government duties, taxes, royalty on the box side, which we export per ton basis, etc. Going forward we expect that, you know, so last quarter costing would have been around 60. But you know, going forward we think that, okay, there may be some reduction in our, you know, operating costs or you know, other efficiencies which we expect because like we said we did only the 1.3 million in the last quarter.
Assuming that we are able to ramp up the volumes, what we are looking at some level of cost should drop further. What it may come in the next quarter that we will have to see. But we are confident of having costing below $60 definitely for the next quarter. As far as the cost curve is concerned. I think that there are many, there are mine owners there, but they are operating since many years. So we have also got an advantage on the quality of our bauxite having the new mines. And you know, one of our mines is a really high quality bauxite.
So when the pricing typically may drop like this. So our higher quality resources and resources would help us to, you know, offset some of that pricing impact also. So that is an advantage we have being a new player in guinea, that we have quite a high quality resources also with us in one of our locations. So I mean in all our locations, but currently we are focusing on one of them that okay. That some of the shipment we can improve the quality and manage to even get a premium.
Dhananjai Bagrodia
And in terms of exports from guinea, where do you usually sell to in terms of it’s.
Manan Shah
It’s almost all to China.
Dhananjai Bagrodia
Okay, all hundred to China. Okay, fine. That is understood. And Capex, you said you already done with. Okay, fantastic. And TK done. Thank you so much. Thank you.
Manan Shah
Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Surendra Kumar Kimka from Kimka office. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Hello. Yes, hello. Hello. Any disturbance in mining in Africa? I have, I have reading a report that some disturbance going on in Ghana. So any system in guinea also.
Manan Shah
Well, we actually mentioned that some suspended mines is reopened. So I think that at least on the ground of it conditions are good for the mining activity. Currently we don’t see any kind of disturbances at a, at any major level.
Unidentified Participant
No, no, you are saying that opening of the mining. But I am saying that some mines are closing. Closing in Ghana for the disturbances.
Manan Shah
No, currently in guinea there is no such activity or that kind of response from the government.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah, may I know that
Manan Shah
One, one, one note. We’d like to add that currently it’s our feeling or our view that the current government is quite stable and quite proactive also. So we, we think that at least the business environment is quite good.
Unidentified Participant
The price of the aluminum has gone up but why the price of bauxite is going down due to the oversu pply.
Manan Shah
So as we mentioned that the point is the price of aluminium has gone up in part because there is some restriction on the new capacities of smelters in China being one of the reasons and I think couple of other reasons also highlighted by my dad on the on the call which also includes that we mentioned that couple of mines has opened up in guinea which was suspended earlier.
So it’s a mix of factors. However yeah, we are optimistic about price stabilizing and maybe gradually pulling upwards after maybe the Chinese New Year.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kriti Tripathi from NVS brokerage. Please go ahead. Kriti, your line has been unmuted. Please go ahead with your question.
Chetan Shah
I think we can get back to her.
operator
Sure. Our next question is from the line of Daisy Bara from Sangvi family office. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Am I audible, sir?
Manan Shah
Yes.
Unidentified Participant
My first question is China has imported 45 microstrum aluminum melting capacity. So this policy on incremental annum production consequently in finance bauxite consumption. So do you see this acting as a structural handling to bauxite crisis over medium?
Manan Shah
So definitely there is a new normal for the time being. We see couple of things which also mentioned earlier that we see that many of the Chinese companies are looking at investing overse for the smelter capacity. So globally smelters may come up maybe you know, in Middle east for example or you know some of the other locations that there may be a growth. But we do think that the aluminum consumption we expect that okay, there may be a continuous growth in the consumption of aluminum and therefore the smelter capacities will continue to grow. But maybe the idea is that they may not growth in that for the time being in China.
But we do think that outside of China we think that new capacities may come up. This is, this is our view maybe particularly we think in Middle east you may hear or see something soon as far as the pricing is concerned. Yes, for now this is a kind of new normal. But we have to see that after the Chinese New Year we are optimistic that there can be some improvements. At the same time like we, we are working on our cost structure to be able to be reasonably profitable at this level also.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, thank you. My next my. There is another question that the box size price is recently corrected around $16 per ton in CA. So what could be the tribal for that? And from current level how do you secure like what Keen demand supply dynamics.
Manan Shah
I think we’ve covered this couple of times on the call we mentioned the resumption of mines and we also mentioned the temporary halt of increase in smelting capacity in China only I think the comment is that we feel that things may improve, you know, if there is some geopolitical stability and maybe you know, after the Chinese New Year. But I think we have already covered the reasons for the fall and also potential reasons for stabilization. So I think, I don’t think I have anything much new to add on that. I think we just want to wait for the, you know, Chinese New Year and see if there is some stabilization in this U S China policy which will have some kind of an impact on manufacturing industry in China.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Okay, thank you sir. And one last question. According to you, what box size, size level would you consider the business for purging economic flow like beyond what reassess your capital?
Manan Shah
I think that given that, given that this, this price crash of bauxite has happened probably within the last month and a half or or so. If you, if you go to see. It’s very early to comment on what would be the new normal. However, we are optimistic that we don’t think prices will go below this level. So I can at least offer that much that prices I don’t think should go below the current levels. I do believe that this is some sort of a floor because we also see the costing of the other companies who are working in guinea and we think this is a level for the stabilization maybe in the near, in the medium term.
I think a few dollars from here upwards could be the, could be the new norm maybe. I mean we believe about 64, 65. But nowadays commodity markets are quite difficult to predict as I think world over this is going on that there is a lot of volatility in all commodity prices. But at least we feel that floor can be very close to where we are.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, thank you so much.
operator
Thank you ladies and gentlemen. In order to ensure that management is able to address questions from all the participants, please limit your questions to two per participant. Our next question comes from the line of Pushkar Jain from Millie Capital. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Hi sir, thanks for the opportunity. I just wanted to ask about the. You mentioned that there are long term contracts with ocean missile. So like what percentage of those are like fixed rate multi year contracts versus how much we remain exposed to, you know, bauxite index or changes in the freight rates.
Manan Shah
So these are, these are fixed in the sense that, that we have a long term agreement when I say long term. I think it’s like 12 months. Okay. Not maybe three years or something. But this long term agreement is giving us the edge in terms of the rate.
Maybe there may be some like variable with the price of the freight index, but it is basically at a rate lower than the market rate. So it will remain lower than the market rate. But it, there may be. Obviously it will vary as per the market. It will vary as per the market rate. But there is some discount in this freight compared to the going market rate. So this is giving us a significant support. And this is also one of our. At least quite a lot of our volume is covered under this contract. So while the rate will vary, it is a below the index rate.
And against that the, the, the, you know, the shipping company is also getting a sustained business. So the agreement is that you know, the, the volumes are committed, the prices can move around. But in, in basic idea is that it will be a little bit below the index price through the year.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. So only if there is a huge fluctuation
Manan Shah
and that is a significant part of the significant part of our total targeted business for next year is under this contract. So we will be having some advantage in freight compared to the market for this coming year.
That will also help us with our cost.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, but, but okay, got, got it. And second question is about the ino. So what is the average Fe content now of the ore that is being currently extracted?
Manan Shah
Correct. So basically we are supplying to the beneficiation plant. So our grade is a very medium grade, which is why it requires a beneficiation. Approximately we are around 45 to 50. Okay. And but this is beneficiable, right? Like it’s improvable. There are some iron ore grades which are maybe higher, but they are not possible to improve easily. Ours is fairly relatively easy to improve.
So our I think focus would be on the volume. There may be a recovery percentage or a yield percentage at the benification plant. But the point is that all of it is exportable only there may be the few kilometers of distance where we may be sending some quantity to the, to the plant. And over there there may be some yield. But eventually all of this will be going as a really good quality iron ore when it’s exported. So while the quality of down 45 to 50, but it is easily upgradable. It crosses 6061 after beneficiation.
So it’s just a. The play on the yield.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. And the volumes in FY27 we expect from iron ore would be
Manan Shah
so we have not commented on that very consciously. We are still doing trials to understand that, you know, what is the viability for the partner who we have on this project. But we should be able to comment on. On that at the end of this call. Thank you. We are optimistic that this will be a fairly substantial quantity even in the context of the guinea business. But exact figures or in terms of what kind of volume target we can see, I think we should be able to definitely comment on that at the end of this quarter.
Unidentified Participant
All right, thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Udit Mittal from Mittal Family Office. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah, so I just wanted to understand, are you facing any competition from the other players? Like are there any order cancellation or anything like that?
Manan Shah
They’re asking if they were saying that any order cancellation or heavy competition from the other.
Chetan Shah
No, not really. There is no any order cancellation. Yeah. And there’s no actually looking this thing. There is no much new competition. Also, you know this. We have our volume, we already have our customers for that. Only the price to be negotiated on basis of the index price. So do not much concern about the volume which we were able to achieve and the price also.
It’s definitely as a link with the index. Yeah. So we don’t see that there will be any impact of the cancellation of business or. Or any. Any stringent competition.
Unidentified Participant
And are the customers delaying the contract or something like that due to the price fall?
Chetan Shah
Not really. Not really. See, if you ask me, then it would be. China is being the largest importer of bauxite in the world. And sometime, you know, it’s been some kind of mutual understanding among the customers or among the receivers to play some kind of strategy to maintain the price. Because one time the bauxite price has touched $120 also.
So now it is some understanding among the major producers or something so. So that they try to control it, but there is no. They. They also understand that the cost structures. They are very familiar with the operations in guinea, you know, so there is no such impact on this thing. And I feel as Manan mentioned that it is already a floor. It’s it going to be, you know, below this kind of numbers.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, thank you so much.
operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in the interest of time, please limit your questions to one per participant. If you have more questions, please rejoin the queue. Our next question is from the line of Vardaman Sancheti from AVS Group. Please go ahead.
Vardhman Arvind Sancheti
Hi sir. What is your. Your floor level below which you need to Reconsider the production volumes.
Manan Shah
Yeah. That what is our floor price at which you may choose to not operate? If it goes below $50.
Chetan Shah
Yeah, yeah. If it is below $52 maybe then, then we have to reconsider our stand. Otherwise we will, will be very comfortable till that number. So because you know, there is a different kind of situation. One of our mining concession is very close to the port where the viability at even that price is also possible. And the one concession is slightly away from the port.
So when we have to decide that what kind of composition so we have to or to product mix we have to do otherwise. Viability. Yeah, the business viability below 52 is definitely a concern.
Manan Shah
All right. So yeah, I just want to share add on that that we do have, you know, some ability to mitigate this like whether it is through the freight or it is through the managing the, you know, we have the two current active resources. By managing the distribution between the resources which we have. We also have a scope of you know, improving the quality to get the premium over the market price.
So it is while I understand that optically, okay, the price drop is very significant. But company does have the tools and we are today backed by the very large amount of resource and reserves. So it does give us the ability to tide out certain such phases even like, like my father mentioned at lower prices. We do have some tools. And the other thing we would like to mention is that Ashapura Group has been in the bauxite business as such for over 20 years now. So we also have a good relationships with many of these customers.
So things like canceling the order or trying to do too much of unnecessary tactics or negotiation this kind of situation, you know, we are even if we will do 15 million tons or something, so, so we will still be about 8, 10% of the China’s bauxite import. So we are, you know, quite confident that you know, in this kind of period also we should able to maintain our volume plan. And you know we, we do have some of the tools to mitigate to some extent the you know, the lower prices of bauxite.
Vardhman Arvind Sancheti
Okay so just consider suppose General Bauxite Prices 60 and you told we have premium quality box and so if you can quantify that premium quality is selling at 63 or 65 what premium?
Manan Shah
Typically it would be anywhere between a dollar to two, two and a half dollars depending on how much premium we are offering over the.
Over the index aluminum. So that depends on that. So but it can be not, it’s not going to be like $5 or something. But it can be up, up to a two and a half dollar system possible what we can get.
Vardhman Arvind Sancheti
All right, so with the port upgradations and everything,
Manan Shah
I, I mean I think we can pause this question. I mean but because the general comment is there probably. But like
Vardhman Arvind Sancheti
we have one source country like India and we have one customer countries, China. So over the years are we looking for any significant diversion in terms of product mix or geographical mix?
Manan Shah
I think that we are open.
We are definitely open and we do have a lot of studies also. But currently as on today it is entirely based on the majorly based on the China. But we are open. Are we looking. We can see like, like we mentioned maybe something may come up in Middle east. Even in India there may be some significant requirement. Canada also has got something now US also want to restart all these locations. May still see. I know that there are locations nearby, but there may be some that. It’s too early to comment but maybe once we reach as well in other products.
Are you doing research iron or for the time being I can comment on iron or. We do study things time to time but our commercial interest currently is limited to boxite and iron ore engine.
Vardhman Arvind Sancheti
All right. And when the aluminum players like ramping up the capacity from China, outside China, by which year we can expect.
Manan Shah
I think currently
Chetan Shah
Indonesia they have started some activities in Middle East.
Manan Shah
So yeah, as my father mentioned, that is Indonesia and Middle east certain. You know, we are seeing some activity. But the point is that fundamentally the smelter capacity needs to come up.
The refinery capacity is available so the smelter capacity would pull up, you mentioned. Okay, yeah. So we think that yeah, we should expect maybe over a couple of years something to either come up in Indonesia, Malaysia or Middle East. That’s what we are looking at at least
Chetan Shah
the power arbitration.
Manan Shah
Yeah, Middle east has certain pockets which has a very low power cost which could make it the ideal location having a smelter which consumes lot of power per ton of aluminium production.
Vardhman Arvind Sancheti
All right, thank you. Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Kriti Tripathi from NVS brokerage. Please go ahead.
Nalin Shah
Hello. Yeah, hello. Yeah, can you. This is Nalin Shah from NVS brokerage. Can you tell us this? I think in the current nine months we have done about 4.77 million export considering, you know, I mean the fourth quarter is likely to be I think much, much better. Can you tell us that what is the target for the current year total exports? You also mentioned about 27, 28 to be 15 million tons. So what will be the target for the 26, 27 next year?
Manan Shah
So good. Thank you Nalin Bhai. Basically I think for quarter four at least what I can comment is that we expect it to be a record quarter for us as from a Guinea quarterly export point of view, exact numbers would refrain to share and like I mentioned we see a linear, linear progression that.
Okay. So I think that it could be that, okay, 15 million being year after next, next year will be somewhere around, would be somewhere halfway between this year and 15. So wherever we close,
Nalin Shah
can we put around say 11 and half 12. 12 million?
Manan Shah
Yeah, we hope so. We even hope for more. But I’ll not be in a position to say anything but we are internally very aggressive for ramping up in this. Basically for us the quarter four and quarter one are the best quarter. So our entire focus is on execution and volume. Yeah. Wonderful, wonderful.
Once again congratulations for doing wonderfully well.
Nalin Shah
Thank you. Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Sameer Patel from Savvy Capital. Please go ahead.
Samir Patel
Yeah, hi. I just wanted to touch upon the debt part. You said most of your capex is done in Guinea. So how do you see the debt over the next two years?
Manan Shah
We expect at least that the debt is close to its peak or at peak really. However, in the interest of growing the business, we may take little bit of time before we gradually start to retire the debt. Because as the volume grows so will the working capital needs. And like we mentioned, still there is a 20, 25% CAPEX left over. While we may be able to manage that entirely from internal accrual, we do think we are close to our peak debt.
Definitely. We might be here for some time but we expect maybe that after a year or so gradually we can start reducing the debt. But currently we don’t see the addition of debt. At least as of now, I don’t foresee that there will be a further addition of debt.
Samir Patel
Okay, good. Thanks so much.
operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, please limit your questions to one per participant. Our next question comes from the line of CA Amitesh Mandovra from Amitesh Mandovara Company. Please go ahead.
CA Amitesh Mandowara
Hello. Thank you for this opportunity. Mananbhai, I have one question for you. Given the current aluminium prices and China demand trend, do you expect aluminium producers to restock the bauxite inventories once again? Has there been any notable aluminium capacity expansion or ramp up in China or globally?
Manan Shah
Currently my impression of the inventory levels of bauxite in China is that While the prices of bauxite are lower we see that inventory is more or less not increased significantly or there is a pile of stock or something like that. We think inventory is close to its, you know, regular levels.
Is, is, is, is what it is currently. You can mention that.
Chetan Shah
Yeah. The inventory in China at the moment is all time low. You know. So Chinese will start the buying the you know having new inquiries or new business after they’re all waiting for the. This spring festival after the Chinese New Year. Because the last information is that this inventory level at Chinese is all time low at the moment.
CA Amitesh Mandowara
Okay. Even I have the same information. That is why I’m asking do you expect aluminium producer to restock oxide inventory in coming quarter?
Chetan Shah
Yeah, yes, certainly.
You know this is. I, as I mentioned earlier there’s also some kind of strategic planning by the large producers. Now again they have to improve the inventory because normally you know they should have the inventory for minimum, minimum period of four months of their production. Because any, any, any kind of eventualities can happen. Political, geopolitical or some kind of. Yeah, climatic. Many, many changes can happen. So then normally because you know alumina refinery is such that it is a continuous process. Industries where you cannot afford to stop for a few days and you restart and all the restarting cost is so high.
That’s why they have very, very particular and very clear about having the sufficient inventory to meet all these challenges. Okay. And do your long term contracts include any base or floor price to protect the. Protect against this current spot price correction in bauxite? We are, we are linked to the index. Okay.
CA Amitesh Mandowara
Yeah. Thank you. Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Krish from Mangal Keshav. Please go ahead.
Krish Salot
Hello, good afternoon. It was a great set of numbers. I just have a question on the Indian business. As Indian business has been given a support when bauxite prices remain volatile Indian business can on a consolidated level give support to the overall business. And as sulfuric acid input cost increase over this quarter how does the Indian business looks forward and if in the next coming quarters if it can give some support if there could be a headwinds in the bauxite business.
Manan Shah
So the question I assume is just on the outlook of the Indian business and it’s consistency to be maintained.
I am genuinely quite excited about our Indian business from a medium term, even not long term but even medium term endpoint as we are bringing in many new products, you know and we are you know just bringing many of these products to commercialize and gradually I Do think that India will remain kind of a business where we continue to add value and improve the sales work on the import substitute or the kind of products where the technology is very limited in India. And over the long term we do see, you know, even on the cost side we are taking many initiatives to continuously reduce the cost.
So I think the fact remains that Ashapura Group has seen a lot of volatility in the bauxite business. But our Indian business has always been a source of strength and consolidation for us. And not only will that maintain, but it will also grow quite significantly over the next two to three years. It just so happens that because guinea is a large part of our consolidated turnover so sometimes the visibility remains limited. But I am very bullish on our positioning our products and our future products pipeline.
Krish Salot
Yeah. So the input cost which we have faced recently would somewhat mitigate over the coming years.
Manan Shah
Yes, yes, yes. We are, we are working on lowering our specific consumption, creating alternate sources and creating far value added products which can absorb some of this cost. Of course, yes, the manufacturing as a business in general don’t have the overnight kind of the improvements in, in this thing. But over a long term India will remain very, very strong pillar for the company.
Krish Salot
Okay, thank you so much. Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Kush Bafna from Bafna Brothers finance and property agent. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Thank you sir for this opportunity and congratulations on the first was that you have mentioned the Indian business has suffered due to increase in lower margin products. So can you throw some light on the same I know that you mentioned on excess cost but also lower margin increase in Indian business?
Manan Shah
Yeah. So we have a basically a product portfolio which caters to about 10 industries. We have the four major verticals in our businesses both through shareholding and directly operating in the standalone company. And across this, even at the very major level we have about 40, 50 different types of products which we sell across.
You know, paint, paper, edible oil, you know, crude oil, steel, non ferrous metals, construction foundries, etc. So it so happens that, that we had a lot more of lower value shipments also. You know like a kind of some, some kind of a bulk businesses etc in a couple of of our businesses and maybe the higher value products has had a little bit of a lower shipment. So not in full but definitely to some extent if I see the lower EBITDA or the, or the lower, you know, results compared to previous quarter at least I would say that 30% of that I’m just giving a Kind of approximate number would be also because the matrix has changed.
And then I think that this over the year these things also sometimes averages out that the. You know some quarters goes better and some quarters goes in terms of the matrix and seven quarters goes this thing today. And unfortunately in terms of from an investor standpoint we are catering to so many different industries that to highlight every industry specific performance gets difficult. But matrix with something I think it evens out over the years structurally. I don’t think that that matrix will be permanently like okay. That the lower margin products will come up cost increases. Yes, of course.
More critical we are working on strategy. Like I think earlier we announced that two of our mines had come into operation. This. This kind of also activities reduces our cost as we improve our integration. So further such things are happening and we’ll be happy to share it with you as it happens. But we have to definitely work on you know our cost related part and we are focused on it to. To. To improve that.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah, thank you. And one more question sir. This is regarding the related party exposure. I think more than 70% of our loans and advances and around 71% of our investments are to related parties.
They have their own auditors and some of them, some of the subsidies have been making losses. Could you throw some light on the same?
Manan Shah
I think Ashish can comment and then if required we can comment further.
Ashish Desai
Yes, you are right. I mean related party transactions are there but be assured, I mean it’s all within limit and with prior approval of the board shareholders wherever it is required and wherever it is operation need to do that transaction. So loans and advances also well within the limit and it’s complied by each and every law which we are supposed to.
Manan Shah
this operationally also today you can see that which is publicly declared information that we have a holding structure for our guinea business involves you know, subsidiaries from India to UAE and then from UAE onwards to Guinea.
This is a. Well, we have fairly disclosed this thing. It’s quite well known. So obviously there are a structure wherein you know there is some activity which happens from India to UAE to guinea even though it is 100% held by Ashapura and then vice versa. So even to give you an example, a lot of purchases, you know of. Of materials like Capex and engineering items happens to India which eventually reaches guinea and things like this. So there are many transactions required, you know, to. To support the business. But these are ultimately consolidated. Many of them most of them within the group itself and most of them with the hundred percent subsidiaries or the well established subsidiaries.
With the arm’s leng relevant documentation etc. So this is a more like the nature of the structure rather than anything else. So you. Yeah, you can rest assured that it’s well, well within the you know, requirement and it’s only because of the requirement of the business and the business structure which we carry.
Unidentified Participant
Right. Sir, thank you for clarifying that and wishing you all the best for record quarter next year.
Manan Shah
Thank you so much. Push. Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Pranjent, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Manan Shah
I think we can move forward. Yeah.
operator
Our next question is from the lineup. Prasad Kanodia, an individual investor. Please go ahead. Mr. Kanodia, your line has been unmuted. Please go ahead with your question. There is no response. Can we conclude?
Manan Shah
Yes.
operator
I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Chetan Shah for closing comments. Over to you sir.
Chetan Shah
So I can just. Closing comments just that we would like to say that yes for the guinea business the bauxite pricing has been a setback but the company remains confident to tight through this time with variety of initiatives and options at its hand. We are also fundamentally optimistic about the nature of the business and that gradually we do expect a price recovery as well. You would like to add that? Sure, sure. See all, all my friends and stakeholders, you know I’d like to tell you that this business, you know like the, this reserves, the bauxite reserves is, is last for 50 years and, and we look at the quarter on quarter they will give you a fair picture and sometime unfair pictures.
So we want to see that how best we utilize our resources and how best we can bring into the effective business. So this is what we are planning this thing. Yeah, it’s going to happen. You know that’s now a lot of climatic changes, the geopolitical instability but the demand of this mineral. So demand of the ultimate the metals is going to remain very high. It’s aluminum metal per se is going on CAGR of the 7% and is going to go much higher than that because once the more and more EV production will happen that will attract the consumption aerospace, the defense and many other areas.
You know this metal is going to have a long term future. So I have only simple things to say to all of you is that we have to see the long term prospective of this business not on basically on quarter, on quarter. However, we appreciate your interest, we appreciate your concern about the Ashapura and it gives us a lot of motivations and encouragement, you know to improve on our performance and to keep you in touch. Thank you very much, all of you. Thank you.
Manan Shah
Thanks, everyone. Thank you, everyone. Thanks a lot. And looking forward to meeting you all again after three months.
operator
Thank you. On behalf of Ashapura Mindchem limited that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. And you may now disconnect your line.