Navneet Education Limited (NSE: NAVNETEDUL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call dated Feb. 06, 2025
Corporate Participants:
Sunil Gala — Managing Director
Kalpesh Dedhia — Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Unidentified Participant
Himanshu Upadhyay — Analyst
Viraj Kacharia — Analyst
Riya Mehta — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to Navneet Education Limited Q3 FY ’25 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. Before we move on to the presentation, a small disclaimer to all the participants. This conference call may contain forward-looking statements about the company, which are based on beliefs, opinions and expectations of the company as on the date of this call. These statements are not the guarantees of future performance and involves risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict.
I now hand the conference over to Mr Sunil Gala, Managing Director from Navneet Education Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Sunil Gala — Managing Director
Thank you. Hello, everyone. Good afternoon and a very, very warm welcome to everyone present on the call today. Along with me, I have Kulpesh Dedia, our CFO; and our Investor Relation Advisors SGA. I hope you all have received our investor presentation by now. For those who have not, you can view them on the stock exchanges and the company website. I’ll straight away, start with the first-nine months-to start with, then I’ll be speaking on the quarterly numbers. So our first-nine months of financial year ’25 reflects a mixed bag of performance.
Our export stationery business continued to be a key growth driver, benefiting from strong global demand, expanding market reach and our focus on high-quality innovative products. The publication business maintained a stable-growth trajectory, supported by consistent demand and strategic partnerships. However, our domestic stationary business faced certain challenges due to a competitive landscape. So let me now briefly talk to you about quarter three numbers. So first, I’ll start with the publication business. So the revenue from publication business grew by, of course, a good percentage may be clear — clarifying again, quarterly numbers are frankly not representative for the full-year. But why this growth?
This growth was primarily driven by a few institutional orders that significantly contributed our top-line, reaffirming our market leadership and deep-rooted presence in the education sector. This achievement reaffirms our market leadership, deep-rooted presence and ability to successfully execute large-scale institutional orders. Moving forward, we remain focused on expanding our reach, strengthening our content portfolio and leveraging digital platforms to enhance distribution and accessibility. These strategic initiatives will enable us to build-in on our success and drive sustainable growth in the publication business.
Now on stationery business, first, I’ll talk about domestic. So that business faced challenges during the period, primarily due to continuous decline in raw-material prices, which led to a cautious approach from dealers and distributors in procuring inventory. This resulted in slower demand and impacted both revenue growth and margins. As a result, revenue from this segment declined by 24% year-on-year up to approximately INR51 crore. Mine well, this is a revenue decline, but as far as the volumes are concerned, the decline for three months has been 15% and for nine months, it is just 3%. Because of the low finished product prices, because of the raw-material prices, the revenue numbers have declined.
However, with paper prices stabilizing a rather little bit on upward movement, we anticipate a gradual recovery in Q4 ’25 as distributors and retailers we have already regained confidence in restocking — restocking the inventory. To mitigate this impact on the short-term challenge, we are actively implementing several strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing operational efficiencies, optimizing costs and redefining our pricing strategy. And by improving supply-chain agility and maintaining a balanced approach to pricing, we aim to stabilize margins while ensuring competitiveness in the market.
Additionally, we are focused on strengthening our distribution network and exploring opportunities for the product innovation to drive sustainable growth in the domestic stationary. So in nutshell, while near-term challenges persist, we remain optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of this segment, backed by our strong brand positioning, extensive market reach and commitment to delivery, delivering high-quality products. Now come to exports. The export stationery business continued its strong growth momentum, delivering an impressive 17% year-on-year increase in revenue to INR115 crores.
This robust performance was driven by successfully introducing new product categories, catering to evolving customer preferences and our strategic expansion into newer international markets, majorly when I’m saying markets majorly it is newer markets, what we mean is the Central America over and above the North-America. Our exports, our efforts to strengthen relationship with existing clients while simultaneously acquiring new customers have significantly contributed to this upward trajectory. A key factor behind this growth has been our sustained focus on product innovation, ensuring that our offerings remain competitive and aligned with global quality standards.
So overall going-forward we plan to invest in strengthening our delivered distribution network majorly, I would say, including brand presence and leveraging technology to enhance customer engagement and operational efficiencies. So these were all the businesses. So on looking ahead, we remain confident in our ability to navigate market challenges while capitalizing on emerging opportunities. Despite the dynamic and evolving business environment, our strategic focus remains steadfast on strengthening our core businesses, driving innovation and expanding our presence in both domestic and international market. Now to achieve this, we are prioritizing product diversification, digital transformation.
I should tell you today that to leverage the content repository that we have, today we have launched AI for the benefit of teacher community. The response was so immense that all the teacher community is likely to use this platform and this indirectly will enhance the demand for our physical books as well as digital content. So our commitment to innovation will continue to drive the development of high-quality differentiated offerings that cater to the evolving needs of our customers. Additionally, we are actively exploring new growth avenues through geographical expansion and deeper market penetration. This is what briefly I wanted to convey to you on Q3 and Nine-Month numbers.
So I thank you every one of you. And now I open the floor for Q&A session, please. Thank you.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you very much, sir. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press R and one on their touchstone telephone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets only while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We have a first question from the line of Jignesh Joshi from PL Capital.
Unidentified Participant
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, what was the value of the institutional order that boosted the growth in the publication business? If you can share that number? Also, who is the client? And if you can clarify the nature of the relationship here because I thought that typically guide 10 are sold over-the-counter through the dealer distribution model.
Sunil Gala
Yeah. Thanks, for this. So the total value — in value terms, the amount was — I was — I wouldn’t say it is big, but it was INR15 crore. And thankfully, these are the various corporates and few of the government and feels the need of additional supplemental products to the children community. Now, when I mean corporate means many, many corporates have come forward to help the schools to enhance the learning capabilities. So these are INR15 crore. And the way we see it, going-forward, this business is likely to remain sustainable because the benefits these school government schools or the tribal schools that they have seen which the students were never getting these benefits, they will start getting benefits, overall results will improve. And therefore we believe on continuous basis, we should receive such orders.
Unidentified Participant
What is the outstanding order book currently? I know it’s like just a novel venture for us. But do we have any number to share on publication,? Yeah, yeah. So by institution orders, I meant
Sunil Gala
None at present. And as you should rather it is a repetitive answer by me, but this being this business being seasonal in nature, now we will expect orders in the — starting from the first-quarter to the second-quarter. So as of now, we do not have any outstanding orders from them.
Unidentified Participant
Got that. And sir, secondly, I just wanted to understand this 24% decline that we have witnessed in the domestic stationery business. Now while I understand that a fall in RM prices will eventually lead to repricing of the product at a lower level, but over here, the fall is about 22%. So just wanted to check, is this essentially a repricing or are we losing market-share over here? Just thought of checking this because, I mean one of your peers which has a relatively small exposure towards the paper stationery. Now in this quarter, they reported a very handsome growth. So your thoughts on that?
Sunil Gala
Yeah. So I will not comment on the peer or competitor right now. But that two reasons. So as I mentioned in my speech, the volume growth for the 3rd-quarter was around 14% versus a revenue loss of 24%. So repricing is to the extent of 10% and as I also told in my speech earlier that because raw-material prices were going down, the distributors and retailers normally start stocking from the month of December, they did not do that, thinking that prices will further go down. We have seen these cycles earlier. Now since the prices have stabilized of the raw-material as well as have started some improvement in the pricing, very marginal, that will eliminate their doubt of further reduction. And so we should see 4th-quarter a great quarter for the domestic stationery business as well.
Unidentified Participant
Understood. Sir, one last question from my side. Now in this quarter, we recognized a fair-value gain of about INR25 crores on our investment. Now in the notes to accounts, we have mentioned that this gain had come through because we decided to exercise the option. So if you can clarify what does this exactly mean? And going ahead, how will the revaluation happen from here on
Sunil Gala
., you may comment on this.
Kalpesh Dedhia
So, since we are considering it as a financial asset now, so we have option of revaluing the balance tech or doing a fair market valuation whenever the price discovery is there. So whenever there is some transaction and we have a valuation report, we will fair-value the investment. It will come through P&L. It’s the.
Unidentified Participant
Understood. So has there been any price discovery in this quarter in the sense that any transaction has happened in?
Kalpesh Dedhia
Yes, there was some secondary transaction happened.
Sunil Gala
And yeah, Jinesh. So the other shareholder being Sofina, which has been holding for a while, they also sold around 5% equity to a new investor based out of Singapore. So there has been a price discovery in the 3rd-quarter.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. And if I remember right, our stake was 14%, right?
Sunil Gala
Yeah, it is 14.3%.
Unidentified Participant
Understood. Understood. Thank you so much and all the best.
Operator
Yeah. Thank you. We have our next question from the line of from Bohead. Please go-ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Hi, sir I wanted to know what — hello, am I audible?
Sunil Gala
Yeah, yeah.
Unidentified Participant
Sir, I wanted to know what was the Indianika revenue and PAT this quarter and what is your guidance for FY ’25 and ’26 for Indianca?
Sunil Gala
You’ll have to dig out that number, Indianika.
Kalpesh Dedhia
So Arian, as you know, Indiana, the main quarter is 4th-quarter, but till December it was the sale was about INR6 crore.
Sunil Gala
Okay., you may talk about corresponding nine months —
Kalpesh Dedhia
So corresponding nine months, I think last year it was only INR47 lakhs. So compared to that, we are in much better position of this year.
Sunil Gala
So this year, the revenue projection that we have for Indianika is between INR65 to INR70 crore business.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, and what was the PAT, sir?
Sunil Gala
What will be the PAT you are saying?
Unidentified Participant
Be PAT in 3Q and what will be your guidance for full-year PAT?
Sunil Gala
Near Kalpish.
Kalpesh Dedhia
So PAT is about negative INR27 crore and guidance is about, I think INR2 crores to INR3 crores we will make impact.
Sunil Gala
Okay. So Ariyanth, let me again repeat here that the Indianika business again being seasonal where the 4th-quarter is the real performing quarter. First-nine months, we do spend money not only for creating the products, but also to-market the products. So in first-nine months, you will always see losses in the 4th-quarter because of the high revenue, all those earlier losses will be recovered as well as we will generate certain some profit. So this year, as said, we should be positive at PET level around INR2 crore to INR3 crores
Unidentified Participant
. Okay. And sir, I wanted to ask, have we launched any new non-paper and non-paper stationary products in domestics market and how has the offtake of those products?
Sunil Gala
So Ariant, it is a continuous process of introducing newer products. Unfortunately, this is the 3rd-quarter is not the right product to see the offtake. At present, we start marketing and booking orders. As I said, booking order was bit difficult in the current quarter because of the raw-material prices going down on a continuous basis. Therefore, trade was not really ready to stock the quantity. So as we start receiving orders from 4th-quarter, we are sure that we will see the offtake, more-and-more offtake for the newer category of products also. So today, we may not be able to quantify in value or quantity, what has been the response so-far?
Unidentified Participant
Okay, got it, sir. Similarly, sir, can you give some guidance on export order trends, how the export order has been, whatever you have received and what would be comparable growth year-on-year based on order you have year?
Sunil Gala
As mentioned in my earlier quarter speeches also, in exports front, on a year-on-year, we are still expecting growth of 15%. Fortunately, we already have orders in-hand, which we have to execute. So we are confident of achieving 15% growth in exports. Okay.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. And sir, can you please guide on the margins for publication as well as stationary and how much growth are you expecting margin in FY ’25? And similarly in FY ’26 over FY ’25, what can be the improvement in margins for both publication and stationary respectively,
Sunil Gala
So as far as publication business is concerned, our margins will end at around 27% or to 28% now for the full-year. And next year, because we are expecting better revenue growth, that the margin should be around 30-odd percentages. As far as the stationery business overall is concerned, our margin this year may come to around between 10% and 11%. But with exports growing, this year, we had some very low-margin in domestic side and therefore, the overall average margin will be 10% to 11%. But next year, when we see domestic also doing quite well in terms of revenue, that time we should come back to our original margins of stationery between 13% and 14%.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Sir, and one last question like Trump has recently imposed tariff of 10% on China. So do you think it will benefit us in receiving higher orders from USA? And another part would be, is there any anti-dumping duty imposed or us or have you heard anything about that as it might happen? Any color on that.
Sunil Gala
So we cannot predict what will happen in future from US side, but having certain percentage of anti-dumping duty on any other country may benefit to us in a short-term. Long-term everything gets adjusted. The manufacturers of China then may move away to other countries and all that has always been happening. So there would be short-term benefit, but there can’t be long-term benefit in — because of this decision of the US. And anti-dumping duty on — at least we have not heard any new anti-dumping duty on any of our product category now, but we do not really know when anything can come, so that we can’t really comment on.
Overall, what we understand that irrespective of anti-dumping duty in the US, the demand is going to remain and we are not seeing any manufacturing — new manufacturing capacities being built-in the US. So to cater to that demand, irrespective of the price, the customers will be buying the products and therefore, demand from India as well as from the other countries will continue to remain. Now it is the competition between the countries, which one will become cheaper. So we are not much worried about anti-dumping being levied. Now which country is cheaper is what we have to really look for, including the duty that country will have to pay.
Operator
Thank you ladies and gentlemen in order to ensure that the management is able to take questions from all participants in the conference, please restrict yourself to two questions per participant. The next question is from the line of Himanshu Padhya from Bajal Rock PMS. Please go-ahead.
Himanshu Upadhyay
Yeah, hi, good afternoon. My first question was, in the two states where we are Maharashtra and Gujarat, what is the progress on NEP for next financial year? And anything which has come from the state government yet?
Sunil Gala
Yeah, Himansu, in both the states primary standards between first and second standards, several subject change has been announced and based on that announcement, even we are ready with the new product-line for those 10 — those subjects. So that is the only announcement so-far. So for the year ’25, ’26, couple of subjects in grade 1 and 2 is changing and now only is ready with that. But now since the momentum has started of changing the curriculum and what we have recently heard that central government is really after all the state governments to implement the NEP for us, of course, the curriculum is only the concern area. With that, now this momentum cannot stop. So for next couple of years, curriculum change we will witness?
Himanshu Upadhyay
Okay. Okay. And for CBSC schools, has the curriculum been changed till what standards because we have our CBSE business also. So what are you seeing on the CBSE side?
Sunil Gala
So in ’24, ’25, grade 3 and 4 did change and going-forward to more standards will change. But CBSE business curriculum change really does not benefit to a company like ours or rather any publisher because there is no re practice of using second books in CBSE segment all those textbooks have something to write on as well. So once the student uses a textbook, it does not become reusable. So irrespective of curriculum change, none of the company’s publishers of CBSE will benefit on volumes, but grade 5 and 6 is likely to get changed next year.
Himanshu Upadhyay
And see one more expectation we had was it can lead to certain consolidation in the industry and many small players may not be ready with the curriculum change and things like that. So do you think that is still a possibility or everybody has got sufficient time to get prepaired even very small player with INR25 crores INR30 crores sales. So what is your — so normal thoughts on that?
Sunil Gala
Normally these information of spurriculum change is given to all the schools, concerned schools. So for CBSE, it will be CBSE schools well in time. It means the government or the department is ready with the content well in time and therefore, all the publishers for that category has sufficient time to generate the newer content. So I do not think that because of the curriculum cycle, there can be a possibility of consolidation.
Himanshu Upadhyay
Okay. And secondly, one thing what we are seeing is the premiumization and parents spending far more on their kids as per family is having one or two kids, okay. And education is an important thing on which people spend. What are you thinking and what more can we do on the premiumization side, okay, not just textbook, but various other sides of education when we are in the business of or we are preparing various subjects and knowledge Data Bank, how can you use the premiumization story which is happening in the country? So advantage.
Sunil Gala
Yeah, primarily, Himanshu has always been focusing on the volumes and not on just premiumization. But having said that with that philosophy also, the premiumization in book category, it means in the publication category we have all the CBSC textbooks which are premium in terms of pricing compared to the supplementary books that we publish in Maharashtra and Gujarat. Additionally we have now many new titles coming for the children book category. But please believe me, premiumization in education does not really bring volumes. So it may give us very marginal benefit to the top-line. But having said that, you’re right that we can’t ignore that area. And therefore, even in stationery business, now under Yuva brand, we have so many premium products being launched in last two quarters and I’m sure that will — on a longer-term basis that will help us not only increase the revenue, but also on the margins.
Himanshu Upadhyay
Okay. Okay. Thank you for your repliance.
Sunil Gala
Thanks,.
Operator
Thank you. I remind it to all participants to restrict yourself to two questions per participant. The next question is from the line of Viraj from Simple. Please go-ahead.
Viraj Kacharia
Yeah. Am I audible? Hello?
Sunil Gala
Yeah. Yeah, Viraj.
Viraj Kacharia
Sir, just couple of questions. First is on the stationery business. I think what communication earlier was that we will be looking to incur a significant capex for next two or three years given the kind of tailwind we have in exports. And similarly the kind of new product, new category initiatives will circulate down to domestic. So can you just share because if you look at the first-nine months or six months also, the capex spend seems to gradually you know, it doesn’t seem to change much from the historical trend. So any color I can give where are we? And in the commentary, you also talked about us getting a good momentum from Central America. So any color you can give what kind of order book?.
Sunil Gala
Of this year, I would have guided that in next three years, we shall be spending around INR150 crore in the business. In the current year, you may not still see the capitalization because many of the projects are work-in progress. And therefore, we have still not capitalized. But having said that, there are a couple of land parcels that we had to invest in, couple. A couple of construction projects that are going on, which will get completed by March or maximum up to June and then it will get capitalized. New machineries have been ordered and which will be installed by March, few of them by June. So you will see in next two quarters some capitalization happening. But as I had said earlier also, we shall continue to invest in — for the stationery business for — majorly for exports to start with, but in domestic to bring out new category of products, also we will continuously invest.
Viraj Kacharia
Second question is on the domestic stationary. And see, if you look at our business profile, we are still quite heavy in terms of paper products and that too relative to writing and related things now, if you see the landscape even in paper products and non-paper products, using various can we use your headset?
Operator
Your voice is getting buffered.
Viraj Kacharia
Yeah, just am I audible now?
Sunil Gala
Yeah, yeah. Yes.
Viraj Kacharia
Yeah, I’m just saying that if I look at the domestic stationy business, you’re still quite heavy in terms of paper products and back to majorly writing our products and adjacencies. Now if you see the marketplace right now, you have seen major players like and even others who are growing both in paper and non-paper category. So just trying to understand in terms of our approach, when you talk about innovations, new categories, you know what kind of initiatives we are taking, what kind of rollouts we have seen and we should see in coming years.
Sunil Gala
So you are very right, Viraj. So as far as our core products, stationary products, paper-based stationary products, what we are doing is increasing geographic reach to improve the volumes and the value of for the business. Additionally, as I mentioned to Himansu or Ariyant that we have introduced several other premium products, of course, again, based out of paper in the market. And thirdly, as you rightly said, many of the competitors or the stationery manufacturers have several other categories. So I assure you that in next two to 3/4, you will also start seeing a newer category being introduced in domestic market. Normally as a strategy, what we do that most of the newer innovation we first deal in exports. Having successfully implemented that, including the manufacturing and the quality, we introduced them into India. So a couple of products that we have already introduced in exports and are and are now successful will get introduced in Indian market as well.
Viraj Kacharia
But parallelly, I mean, just to kind of see this other way around if you see among the successful players in, you have grown you know quite well, not just, but there are several other players. You’ve seen a far rate, a higher-rate of innovation, a far more agility, you know, the whole new product initiatives and marketing in the domestic stationary for each of them, right? So when it comes — I understand that you have a good amount of pipeline, new categories rolled-out for the export, very more of a B2B supplier. But when it comes to the domestic piece, what changes you think you’ve done in order to put this on a growth part because I think we’ve been talking about competitive landscape, network expansion and core products and — but somewhere they’re not really getting reflected. So just trying to understand how — both structurally what changes you are driving to do put this on a growth part?
Sunil Gala
No. So you’re right, Viraj, as I said in exports, B2B, we have introduced successfully for the domestic — making that Indianized version and introducing, which we are focusing on. We should not — and we believe as a management, we may not be able to compare ourselves with the other competitors who have grown in respective businesses. Reason being they are there in that business for decades and now they are bringing in innovative — more-and-more innovative products the way we are bringing in our paper products. So having entering the newer categories, we may take little time to introduce more-and-more innovative products, but basic products, you will see them introduced in next two to 3/4.
Viraj Kacharia
Just one question on the publishing. In somewhere in the commentary,
Operator
Maybe please request you to rejoin the queue.
Viraj Kacharia
Sure.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, please restrict yourself to one question per participant. I repeat, please restrict yourself to one question per participant. Should you have a follow-up question, we request you to rejoin the queue. The next question is from the line of Ria Mehta from Equity — Investment. Please go-ahead.
Riya Mehta
Thank you for giving me the opportunity. My question would be in regards to the export opportunity. So who will be our likely competitors and in the — which countries to be majorly exported? And what was the forex impact considering that rupee is depreciating?
Sunil Gala
Yeah. Thanks, Riya. So as far as ex competition from India is concerned, frankly, we see very little competition for our category of products from the country. But when we talk of competition and in exports business, we have to consider and we have to focus on the competing countries. So for different categories, we have different countries that compete with us, which includes China, Indonesia, Latin-American countries, so — and now even Vietnam. So these are the countries they compete with us on a different, different category and we have to be very sharp and agile on our quality supply in time and pricing, which our team fortunately we are quite alert on and that way we believe the export opportunity will increase further. What was your second question, Ria?
Riya Mehta
Yeah. So basically, which countries do we export and what will be the ForEx impact?
Sunil Gala
Yeah. So our major exports today is to the US, almost to the extent of 80% of our exports are to the US. And as far as the foreign currency is concerned, we do business very, very safely in a way that we have a ForEx policy wherein all confirmed orders we hedge in advance. So whatever receivable that we have on our balance sheet today or the confirm orders, we have already hedged them in advance. Whatever new orders that will come now, we will get benefit of that. Overall, we have seen that keeping positions open has never benefited the company on long-term. So year-on-year, our forex policy has helped us maintaining our margins. So we may not see great benefit of rupee depreciation in this year.
Riya Mehta
And how much is the time duration for the order like how much before do they give you order and what be?
Sunil Gala
Yeah, yeah. We have two types of businesses in exports now. One is back-to-school business for that the orders are decided between November to January every year to be supplied starting from March till June, July. So that is one category now of business that we have. And the other category, the newer categories that we have introduced, which is an all-round year business. So in both the businesses, as I said, for the first category, we receive orders between November to January. And for the second category, which is all year round business, that is a continuous ordering that we receive. So there is no lack time of receiving order and supplies. As we receive orders, we manufacture source materials manufacture and supply.
So normally it is maximum two months in that type of orders. When it comes to first category being back-to-school business, normally it is four months that we have from receiving order to supply.
Riya Mehta
So since we have not received any major orders this time because of postponement or whatever reason, do we anticipate that orders being received in this quarter? How do we see this?
Sunil Gala
Yeah, I did mention about this point for domestic stationery, not for exports of stationery. Exports of stationery, we have been receiving orders the way we used to receive in earlier years. So on that front, we did not have a challenge. Challenge that we faced in 3rd-quarter was for only domestic stationery and that I think this concern will get over when we complete the 4th-quarter.
Riya Mehta
Got it. And in terms of new domestic, hello?
Sunil Gala
Yeah, yeah, go-ahead, please.
Riya Mehta
In terms of how much do inventory of paper stationery do we keep because considering the paper prices going down, do we see a possibility of inventory Write-down?
Sunil Gala
No, no, no, no, no. So we — as far as the stationery products are concerned, if the paper purchases are at the raw-material purchase at a higher price and if we have priced it at differently considering those prices, we have to reduce our margin and sell that. So never ever we have a dead inventory because of this raw-material fluctuation. In terms of publications, that has never been a concern because price was never a primary reason to buy by the customers. It was the content quality. Therefore, in our history, we have never reduced the prices of our products. So irrespective of paper prices going down or up, whatever pricing that we have decided and which is printed on a book at that rate only it is sold-in the market.
Riya Mehta
So how much paper inventory do we keep for the publication business?
Operator
We request you to rejoin the queue as there are participants waiting for the turn.
Riya Mehta
Sure. Just the last question. How much the inventory of paper do we keep?
Sunil Gala
So we would have for the publication business around three months inventory right now. But mind well, this inventory has been built-up in last three, four months where prices were almost down. So we do not carry now high-priced raw-material with us. We do not have such inventory. And for stationery, we would have hardly one and a half months inventory.
Riya Mehta
Got it. Thank you. I’ll join back the queue for further questions.
Sunil Gala
Sure.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, please restrict yourself to one question per participant. The next question is from the line of Sejal from Aventus Capital. Please go-ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Hello, am I audible? Yes,. Firstly, thank you for this opportunity. My first question would be, does the company has any plans to capitalize on the government push for regional language book unannounced in the budget 25
Sunil Gala
I could not hear you properly. Does the company capitalize on what?
Unidentified Participant
On the government’s push for regional language textbook announce in Union Budget 25 25%.
Sunil Gala
So of course, announcements are there let every state adopt it and we have all the products frankly ready with us depending on the request or the demand from the schools and as decided by respective state government or central government, we will get more demand if it happens so. So that’s really not much of a challenge for us. We — it is just reprinting what we have. So it’s not going to take time and we are such always agile on inventory management. So that is easily possible for us.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. And has outlined a capex plan of INR200 crore over two to three years, primarily for capacity expansion in stationary segment and regular maintenance and publication segment. Could you provide a detailed back breakdown of this investment, including specific years of expansion, expected capacity addition, timeline for execution and anticipated impact on revenue and margins?
Sunil Gala
, if we can discuss this one-on-one or if we can mail to you would be a better idea because this will require for me to a little bit dig out the details. We just gave you the number based on the totals that I have in mind. We may not have breakup of all these things in right in front of us right now is that
Unidentified Participant
Okay, thank you.
Operator
The next question is from the line of Amit from Capital. Please go-ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Hi, thank you for taking my question. So Galaji, we saw some decline in our number of pages due to some changes in the curriculum last year, right, which impacted our revenues. Just wanted your perspective on with content moving increasingly online, is there a risk that there could be a structural decline in the number of pages and hence the price of our products?
Sunil Gala
So Amit, the usage of books is not likely to reduce as I would have said, but your question is number of pages or the content. Now as far as the state curriculum of state schools are concerned, I — we still do not see great adoption of technology and therefore, we do not see even state governments planning to reduce the content in physical form. So we really do not worry about that. But as far as the CBSE textbooks are concerned, the Grade 3 and Grade 4 content that was published by the NCIT and thereafter by the private publishers, we did not see actually a reduction in content.
It was in the state of Gujarat last year — this year in the first and second-quarter, certain subjects were — where state governments did reduce the sizes and accordingly, we had to redo or redesign our product that was the effect. But now late, we are not seeing that happening at all.
Unidentified Participant
Got it. Got it. And just a follow-up on the publication segment. So historically prior to COVID, we were operating at some 30% to 33% EBIT margins and this was fairly or consistent and in a tight range. Now post-COVID, you know we’ve — we had this ad-tech business where we were making losses and this was merged into the publication segment last year. Now my understanding based on our previous interactions is that some of this ed-tech expenses will — the burn will go down and therefore, the losses there will go down. But, but some of it could be structural in nature and you sort of need it in the business. So how do you see the steady-state margins for the publication business? Should it go back to 30% 33% or should we expect a lower number here?
Sunil Gala
Amit, to our expectation, I — as I just mentioned in my speech earlier that recently we launched AI and now everything does has a cost and we do not see revenue coming in immediately. So it will take its own sweet time. But long-term basis that is going to benefit the overall content business. So having said that, the margins that we would love to go back is between 30% to 32%, but not the margins that we were showing 33% to 35% earlier because of these continuous investments and also once the revenue growth as a percentage increases, margins automatically improves. Most of our expenses are fixed in nature and therefore, margins will improve. It is unfortunate that the revenue growth has been minimal and therefore, we have been continuously seeing decline in margin as well. So we are just waiting for the next year and thereafter let revenue percentage growth happens faster and margins will definitely show improvement. But as I said, 30% to 32% will be the margin in content business. So this 27% to 28%, which is currently the number that will go to, 30%, 32%. That’s the expectation with revenue movement. Yes, please.
Unidentified Participant
Understood. Thank you and all the best. Thanks.
Sunil Gala
Thank you.
Operator
You. Ladies and gentlemen, please restrict yourself to one question per participant. The next question is from the line of Madur Rathi from Countercyclical Investments. Please go-ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Hi, sir, I wanted to understand regarding the paper prices and where do we see them going and can it have a further impact on our margins going-forward?
Sunil Gala
So paper as a cost has stabilized from the month of December and we do not see any downward now. There could be increment in paper prices going-forward at least up to April, that has been the estimation of the market. Now when paper prices went down, it definitely benefits the publication business because we do not reprice our products. It did happen in domestic stationary where we had to reprice our product considering the competition. So normally stable prices like every industry, stable prices really helps companies. Downward helps publication business but does not help the stationery business.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. And sir, I think in last quarter you mentioned that in the CBSE school business where I think most of the spending is happening by the affluent customers. Generally schools don’t take more than one publisher for four subject or four something like that. So can’t we do white labeling where we create multiple brands in each name and then we just shell it out to different schools because I think we have the school reach and the targets we have or the manpower to sell. So any thoughts on that?
Sunil Gala
So it is clearly better than, because if same brand is presented by the same person, it does not have any impact the same and increasing number of sales team for each of the brand is very, very costly a fair in CBS type of a business. Instead, what we have recently done and which might have gathered it that the recent launch of AI is so advanced tool for the schools to use in the classroom once they decide to use that tool in the classroom, compulsorily or I would say majorly, they will have to buy nounit content. So that way adoption of more titles in the school can happen. So this is a recent development which we will see, but we are very hopeful of increasing number of titles in the same school.
Unidentified Participant
Got it. And sir, I just wanted to understand, sir, there is recently a publication about Sheet in a book. So do we consider them as our competitor in the Maharashtra market? Yeah. They are our competitors from beginning.
Sunil Gala
And so their revenue in Maharashtra would be in sub INR100 crore and they have been our competitor for last 30 odd years and great publishers.
Unidentified Participant
Then, sir, what would be the market-share between the two of us and what — is there any pricing difference in our product versus their products.
Sunil Gala
I would say product categories are the same. We all differ differentiate based on just the content. So I would say even they are good. Their marketing is good. So overall, what new features that we add-in our product will differentiate between us. So in short, what I’m trying to say, they are not new publishers, they are also 30, 40-year-old publisher and are in the market for that long. So it is a continuous competition between us that will continue to remain.
Unidentified Participant
Got it. And sir, on the market-share.
Operator
Sorry to interrupt, please request you
Unidentified Participant
Yes. Sir, on the market-share.
Sunil Gala
Their market-share would be around 15% of the total opportunity in Maharashtra
Unidentified Participant
And for us,
Sunil Gala
For us it is around 50% to 50% to 55%.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. And sir, on the pricing front,
Sunil Gala
They may be more or less the same. Pricing-wise, we are not different. Depending on the cost we incur on a product including the raw-material usage, the price varies, but margin-wise, they would be the same.
Unidentified Participant
Okay, got it. Sir, thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you, sir. We have our next line from the next question from the line of Shah from Asset Management. Please go-ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, I had two questions only. One is related to the publishing business, other is the stationery business. Sir, in publishing business, we have acquired the Indian Nika, if I’m not wrong, then India Nika was acquired in 2016 and in most of the year, it made a loss. If is not the promoter of the Indian Nika, would India Nika survive today?
Sunil Gala
Yeah, good question and difficult question India Nika would not have survived without a strong promoter that you are very right. Now why did we continue making losses or we accepted the losses because we are seeing a very, very long-term benefit of the opportunity, which is CBSE, which in 2016-17 when we were saying people may not have accepted, but today as we see post pandemic in particular most more-and-more students are shifting to CBSE. Therefore, it is a long-term benefit that we saw and have invested. But you are right, for others, it would not have — but others would not have taken so much of risk in introducing new and newer products or expanding geography, they may not have done. But yes, has invested looking at a long-term benefit.
Unidentified Participant
But sir, you just mentioned that by the year-end the Indian may report the INR65 crores to INR70 crores of the revenue and INR2 crore to INR3 crore of the PAT, then what the IRR the Navnet is generating on the investment in India Nika? I think it is not meaningful IRR India — Navnet is generating from the Indianca investment. That’s our point.
Sunil Gala
Yeah, but that was done in 2016, ’17. Now we can’t go back to that year and undo our decision. Having said that, that, at, we see business from two angles. One is short-term angle and other is long-term angle. So IRR wise, if we look at this year or next year, we may not see IRR being good or even mentionable. But long-term, please be assured that we will be able to generate good IRR on this investment as well. And it is not only the — purely from numbers point-of-view, it is the — it is very important our presence in the market. And because of that presence, the other businesses that we are in also gets benefit of that. So it is a overall view that we have to take as a company.
Unidentified Participant
So sir, are you sure about that from current year or from the next year, the Indiana will not make any loss. At least it achieves a breakeven?
Sunil Gala
Yeah, we are very sure about it.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Okay, sir. And sir, one correct one more? No, no, this is my second question. Somebody has asked the 10 or 12 question. I was in the queue in the forum, the first point. Sir, this is my last question, sir. In the stationary segment, sir, sir, Sunil, by in the stationary segment, you suggested that this year the company may report the 10% to 11% in the margin. I think you are referring to EBIT margin because in the segment report, the — even though for the first-nine months, company has already reported the 12.19% EBIT margin. So do you say that do you — do you indicate that in the quarter-four, our EBIT margin will be less than the 10% in — from the stationary segment?
Sunil Gala
No, no, no, no, no. So I’m sorry on that. What I meant was PBT margin. I did not meant EBIT margin. So that way, it will remain the same and the 4th-quarter will be better in — for both state exports and domestic. So that will definitely improve a bit further margin to PBT level. So PBT should be between 10% and 11%.
Unidentified Participant
Okay. Okay. Thanks, sir. Thank you. Thanks all the best, sir.
Operator
Thank you. Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Dhaga from Capital Trust. Please go-ahead.
Unidentified Participant
Yeah, understood. Just a small questions on each of the segments. First, given the background, what is your best-case estimate about the growth for stationary next year given the background — the card change for grade 1 and grade 2? Second, just question on the stationery side of it. So if we talk about the quarter-four is very-high for us seasonally for the domestic segment and you’re talking about restocking as well. Do you think we’ll be able to recover that INR30 crore of loss in the first-nine months what we had in the stationary — domestic side? And second, when you mentioned 15% growth in the export stationary, just to achieve that this year, 15% will have to do about 20% and 30% growth in the quarter-four for export is stationary. Are we on-track on that? Thanks.
Sunil Gala
So on both front, we are on-track for that. So domestic to start with, yes, we are very confident of achieving around. So on domestic, I should clarify that this will be volume growth, not the value growth that we are talking. So in domestic value may be similar now to the last year because of reduction in our final product pricing, but volume will grow by around 15%. So in the quarter-four, we should do by at least INR25 crores to INR30 crore additional business compared to the last corresponding quarter. And for exports, you are right, we are confident of growing the percentage that you just mentioned, we have sufficient orders in-hand.
Unidentified Participant
Sure. And by publication,
Sunil Gala
What was your question on publication FY ’26 growth number estimate? In publication business, we are very sure of at least growing by 12% year-on-year and the effect of Grade 1 and 2 will not be that big as a percentage, but overall 10% to 12% we are very confident of.
Unidentified Participant
So sir, if grade impact is not big, how we are expecting that 12% growth like?
Sunil Gala
Sorry, we are not it is just not because of the new curriculum products, only we will have growth. It is the digital the activity that we have done, now we are seeing the results of that. So that will also help growth. The overall second book market at least two times or three times students have already used the books, they won’t be able to use the book same way. So therefore, second book market as a percentage now should for sure reduce and that will all bring over this growth.
Unidentified Participant
Understood. Thank you, sir. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you so much. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraint, that would be the last question for today. And I now hand the conference over to Mr Sunil Rala for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Sunil Gala
Yeah. Thank you. So I take this opportunity to thank everyone for joining the call. I hope I — of course, I know that I could not answer. Everyone may be still in the queue, but I hope we have been able to address the queries raised to me. For any other information, kindly get-in touch with our IR team, Strategic Growth Advisors, our Investor Relationship Advisors. So I request whatever questions that you all have, please have that clarified and we’ll try to answer as soon as possible. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. On behalf of Navneet Education Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.