Century Aluminum Co. (NASDAQ:CENX) Q2 2020 Earnings Conference Call - Final Transcript

Aug 05, 2020 • 05:00 pm ET

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Century Aluminum Co. (NASDAQ:CENX) Q2 2020 Earnings Conference Call - Final Transcript

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Q & A
Analyst
Lucas Pipes

these pieces fit together and then of course as it translates to your results we are looking forward to much stronger Q4 but you share kind of where we're we might be shaken out on an adjusted EBITDA basis for the fourth quarter. Thank you for your color.

Executive
Michael A. Bless

Sure. You've got some I think in your question you've got some apples and oranges and maybe a kumquat and a grape. So let me try to dissect it or parse through it. The 30% down and I think that's a reference if I recall from my first quarter call was simply referencing not total primary aluminum demand decline but the decline in value-added products, the billet and other value-added productivity etc etc. So that wasn't referencing the total unrattled momentum of primary however people use those synonyms.

As you correctly reference the significant increase, I think if I understood your question correctly over the last couple of months and frankly over the last 15 months has been from Canada as you look at the import data it's all up on commerce's website. So obviously all those data are there. That's really been the difference that U.S. demand has been bumping along but the significant proportion of imports that are coming down from Canada have significantly changed the market. I mean that 80% for example increase 12 months over 12 months has driven the market share of Canada's imports in the U.S. from around 50% which was an all-time high to just shy of 80% today. so it's just that it's simply a source of where the demand is being fed from as Canadian imports have sourced into the U.S. Does that address your question or should I miss it a bit?

Analyst
Lucas Pipes

Very helpful for now. I'll let you get to the second part of the question then I may have follow up.

Executive
Michael A. Bless

Yes. Please jump back into the queue.

Analyst
Lucas Pipes

Yes. On the EBITDA would you be able to touch on that before?

Executive
Michael A. Bless

EBITDA specifically in what respect? What is your question?

Analyst
Lucas Pipes

The question is so with the price recovery in LME with the price recovery in the midwest premium, obviously Q3 is going to be weaker but then kind of as we think about Q4 given to base prices what could look like?

Executive
Michael A. Bless

Go ahead Craig.

Executive
Craig Conti

Yes. That was still I'm sorry Lucas, we're having a little trouble hearing you that was still Lucas right.

Analyst
Lucas Pipes

Yes.

Executive
Craig Conti

Okay. Lucas. We're not going to talk specifically about Q4 today. we'll certainly save that for the next call but I think a good way to do that we did share a sensitivity based on Q2 actual today which would give you kind of call it a mark to market for two of the largest movers and then also in the appendix we've included our second half sensitivities on EBITDA. So if you were to take what your assumptions would be for LME and midwest premium and add those on to an actual quarter 2Q