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$PG 3Q15 10-Q: Effective tax rate on continuing operations was 19.6% vs. 20.8% in 3Q14. Interest expense was $479MM, a drop of $52MM vs. 3Q14. Interest income was $103MM, an increase of $30MM vs. 3Q14. Other non-operating income grew $25MM to $93MM. Total share-based compensation expense was $72 vs. $94 in 3Q14.
$PG plans to continue to keep bottom-line growing and to be growing margins through productivity which will both provide fuel for reinvestment and for margin improvement. $PG really doesn't view pricing and promotion as high in terms of its options to grow business. $PG is going to be continuing to invest in business to drive margins.
$PG said it will continue its strong track record of cash returned to shareholders. $PG expects to pay nearly $7.5Bil in dividends this year. $PG is lifting FY18 share repurchase outlook from $4-7Bil to $6-8Bil, reflecting strong operating cash flow, continued working capital progress, and the cash benefit enabled by the Tax Act.
$PG had already reduced number of agencies nearly 60% from 6,000 to 2,500, saved $750MM in agency and production costs, and improved cash flow by over $400MM additional through 75 day payment terms. In next phase, $PG expects to save another $400MM reducing number of agencies by another 50% and implementing new advertising and media agency models.
$PG's core gross margin for 2Q18 declined 80 basis points versus year ago. 150 basis points of productivity savings were more than offset by headwinds of 90 points from higher commodity costs, 70 basis points of mixed impact, 50 basis points from pricing primarily Gillette, and 40 basis points of reinvestment in product and packaging innovation.
$PG said commodity prices have continued to move higher as the year has progressed approaching a $350MM after-tax impact versus year ago for FY18. $PG had expected to see higher pulp costs going into the year. These costs have continued to increase beyond initial forecast ranges with strong demand and some recent supply disruption.
$PG lifted FY18 core EPS growth outlook to 5-8% from 5-7% versus FY17 core EPS of $3.92. This is to reflect the potential benefit from the Tax Act. GAAP EPS are expected to decrease 30-32% versus FY17 GAAP EPS of $5.59, which included the significant benefit from the Beauty Brands transaction that was completed in October 2016.
$PG maintained its organic sales growth estimate of 2-3% for FY18. The company estimates all-in sales growth of about 3% for FY18, which includes a neutral to half-a-percentage-point benefit to sales growth from the combined impacts of acquisitions and divestitures and foreign exchange.
$PG's net sales for 2Q18 rose 3% year-over-year. This includes a 1% positive impact from foreign exchange. Organic sales and volume both increased 2%. A 1% positive mix impact from the disproportionate growth of higher priced categories, Skin & Personal Care and Personal Health Care, was offset by a negative pricing impact of 1%.
$PG reported a 68% drop in 2Q18 earnings due to the Beauty Brands divestiture gain in the base period and the latest quarter net income tax charge related to the recent U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Net income fell to $2.5Bil or $0.93 per share from $7.88Bil or $2.88 per share last year. Net sales rose 3% to $17.4Bil. Core EPS increased 10% to $1.19.
After posting a wider loss in the last two quarters, $COTY’s acquisition of $PG’s Specialty Beauty business in Oct. 2016 started paying off now. The beauty product company’s revenue more than doubled to $2.23Bil in 1Q18. Consumer Beauty segment revenue rose 82% to $1.04Bil. During the quarter, adjusted EPS declined 57% to $0.10.
$PG still expects majority of EPS growth for 2018 to be driven by operating and earnings growth. The 1Q18 was a little bit more challenging, due to run up of commodity cost and the impact of the natural disasters. The productivity savings will build as $PG grows through the fiscal year and will also began annualizing pricing reductions investment.
$PG expects to grow China Baby Care sales this fiscal year and return Pampers to share growth which would mark a significant turnaround. $PG continues to build share in ecommerce in China. $PG grew ecommerce sales about 60% in 1Q18 and a market growing around 50% with 7 out of 10 categories holding growing online market share.
For FY18, $PG planned to deliver another year of 90% or better free cash flow productivity. This includes capital expenditures of 5-5.5% of sales. $PG continues its strong track record of cash return to shareholders. $PG expects to pay nearly $7.5Bil in dividends and repurchase $4-7Bil of its shares in FY18.
$PG's results for 1Q18 includes about a 30 basis point impacts from the earthquake in Mexico and hurricanes in Texas to Gulf Coast and Puerto Rico. They also include a 40 basis point impact from the combination of U.S. pricing investments and discontinued brands of product forms. $PG said all of these impacts will dissipate as the year progresses.
$PG maintained its core EPS growth expectation of 5-7% versus FY17 Core EPS of $3.92. This is despite over $100MM of incremental commodity cost headwinds resulting from the hurricanes that impacted the Gulf Coast in September. All-in GAAP EPS are expected to decrease 26-28% versus 2017 GAAP EPS of $5.59.
$PG maintained its guidance for organic sales growth in the range of 2-3% for FY18. The company estimates all-in sales growth of about 3% for FY18, which includes a neutral to half-a-percentage-point benefit to sales growth from the combined impacts of foreign exchange, acquisitions and divestitures.